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Author Topic: Prediction Markets at Fairlay - Suggest your own and Bet on them  (Read 8933 times)
FairlayBTCPredictions
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November 14, 2016, 03:15:26 PM
 #141

The World Chess Championship has come to New York City. Who will win it? Magnus Carlsen or Sergey Karjakin?

The World Chess Championship has come to New York City, as the Norwegian defending champion Magnus Carlsen and his Russian challenger Sergey Karjakin vie for the game’s highest title. They’re both kids: Carlsen is 25 and Karjakin is 26, yet they’ve lived half their lives as grandmasters. The match is being billed as the youngest championship ever, as FiveThirtyEight’s Oliver Roeder writes.

The first weekend of their best-of-12 match is in the books, and after two games — and two draws — the score is level at 1-1. In Game 1, Carlsen, playing with the white pieces, chose an unusual opening called the Trompowsky Attack. The joke around the Fulton Market Building on Friday was that he played it as a homophonic nod to the new president-elect. There was truth to the joke. Asked after the game whether his choice had anything to do with Donald Trump, Carlsen replied: “A little bit.”

Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Game 3 Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-game-3-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-game-3/.


“I’m a big fan of Donald Trump,” Carlsen told Norway’s TV2 in March. “Trump is incredibly good at finding opponents’ weaknesses. He speaks only about that the other candidates are stupid or smelly. There should be more of this in chess, too.” Carlsen then offered a Trumpism of his own: “Karjakin is incredibly boring!” Karjakin, for his political part, is an avowed supporter of Vladimir Putin.



By the end of that first game no further blood was drawn, and the players agreed to a draw after the 42nd move and just under four hours of play. Game 2, with Karjakin handling the white pieces, began with the all-too-familiar Ruy Lopez opening, a staple of chess for 500 years. The rest of the game was an equally uncreative and plodding affair. After just under three hours, and not much else to speak of, they arrived at a second draw.

Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Series Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-series-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-series-3/.


With the match continuing today, Carlsen remains the heavy favorite, although his chances according to Oliver Roeder’s Elo-based simulations have dipped from 88 percent at the start to 84 percent now, as Karjakin has held serve. At the same time, Fairlay market gives another draw in Game 3 66% chances, while Magnus Carlsen is still the favorite for the final win with 82% chances.

The 12-game match is taking place until November 30, with the two contestants competing for a prize fund of at least 1 million euros. If the score is tied after 12 games, a four-game rapid chess match will be played, then five two-game matches of blitz chess if necessary, and finally, an Armageddon game will be used to break the tie. At the same time, the World Chess Championship in New York will be the first in any sport to be broadcast in 360-degree virtual reality (VR).
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November 23, 2016, 01:31:06 PM
 #142

Where is Julian Assange? And will he be proven alive before 2017, or least in the following 10 months?

“We're happy to announce (a bit prematurely due to sleep schedules) that /r/WhereIsAssange is the subreddit of the day for 11/23/16.“ Yes, that's how big WhereIsAssange got in the last few days as its primary focus is the whereabouts/status of Julian Assange after his internet disconnection and disappearance from the public eye last month. So, where is Julian Assange? And will he soon be proven alive?

Will Julian Assange be proven alive before 2017? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-julian-assange-be-proven-alive-before-2017/.


In case you missed it, here is /r/WhereIsAssange Summary of the events:

The WikiLeaks twitter made several cryptic "pre-commitment" tweets several hours before announcing Julian Assange's internet was cut. Since then, we have received no definitive proof of life, just recycled pictures and videos, statements from people saying things like, "I've seen him, he's fine," then a call-in to an obscure South America open source conference where Julian didn't seem to always be responding to the person asking questions, and most recently a video interview with John Pilger that had no establishing shot of both of them in frame and is edited at numerous points.

Will Julian Assange be proven alive before September 2017? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-julian-assange-be-proven-alive-before-september-2017/.


Thus, /r/WhereIsAssange is asking for an unedited video proof of life, preferably with a newspaper showing the current date, and a signed PGP statement using the Wikileaks Editorial Board public key that has been published since 4/2015 (matching the PGP fingerprint listed on the WikiLeaks twitter bio). As for Fairlay, any proof accepted by the media and Reddit users is enough. But, will that proof come in the following weeks (before 2017), or in the following months (before September 2017). Well, make your opinion at Fairlay.
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December 01, 2016, 01:33:46 PM
 #143

Italian constitutional referendum will be held on Sunday: Will it be a Yes or a No vote?

Italy will hold a referendum on Sunday on whether or not to change the country’s constitution. As Independent writes, the country’s centre-left Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, has promised to resign if the electorate rejects his proposals. But the vote hangs in the balance.

Also, as Guardian writes this referendum is causing concern across Europe after the UK’s vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory. Italy’s vote is as well seen as the biggest threat to Europe since the UK’s referendum on EU membership in June.

Italian Constitutional Referendum result, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/italian-constitutional-referendum-result/.


So, how is the referendum likely to go? Before the official blackout on polls on November 18, there was a projected 53.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent lead for the “No” camp. There is some hope that the 20 per cent people who haven’t made up their mind will ultimately swing behind “Yes”.

At the moment, Fairlay market is also in favor of “No” vote, as “Yes” is given only 21 per cent chances. And the “No” vote is being championed by the populist Five Star movement, led by the comedian Beppe Grillo, an admirer of Mr Trump. In short, the outlook for Mr Renzi is not particularly good. But, what do you think?
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December 13, 2016, 04:11:30 PM
 #144

Who will be the next French President? Francois Fillon, Marine Le Pen, or someone third?

Two weeks ago, Francois Fillon has won France's Republican presidential primary, after his opponent Alain Juppe conceded defeat, and by doing this he became the first favorite to become the next French President.

Thus, Fillon is now likely to face a spring showdown with far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen, who will be seeking to build on that same anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim and anti-establishment feeling.

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-1/.


Some recent polls showed that Fillon will beat Le Pen by 67% to 33%, but many agree that Le Pep could become the next French President as the National Front leader is feeling confident after Brexit and Trump win.

While Fairlay market at the moment gives Fillon 59% and Le Pen 23% chances, the first round of the French presidential election will be held on April 23, and the second on May 7. So, who will be the big winner in the end?
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December 15, 2016, 04:31:32 PM
 #145

2017 Golden Globes: Who will win the main categories? La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea?

On Monday morning, Don Cheadle, Laura Dern, and Anna Kendrick announced the nominees for the 74th Golden Globe Awards. The resulting list contained plenty of good news for La La Land, which led the pack with seven nominations; Moonlight, in second with six nods; and Manchester by the Sea, which scored five.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Film: Musical or Comedy
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-film-musical-or-comedy/.


So, Damien Chazelle's movie La La Land is up for best musical or comedy film, while there are acting nominations for its stars Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling. Chazelle is up for best film director and it is also nominated for original screenplay, score and song. Thus, La La Land could be the biggest winner on January 8, 2017.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Film: Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-film-drama/.


But coming-of-age drama Moonlight is close behind with six nominations, including best drama film. Though, at the moment the first favorite to win the Golden Globe for Best Picture – Drama is Manchester by the Sea, movie about a caretaker who finds himself taking in his teenage nephew.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Director
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-director/.

Manchester by the Sea also got the Best Director nomination for Kenneth Lonergan, though it is more likely to prevail in Best Actor – Drama category as Casey Affleck did a great job. But Denzel Washington also did a great acting role in Fences, while he didn’t get nomination for directing this movie.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actor: Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actor-drama/.


Natalie Portman is favorite for the best drama actress award for playing Jacqueline Kennedy in the biopic Jackie. Still, there was a lot of positive talk about great role of Amy Adams in Arrival, though she is at the moment third favorite with the second being Isabelle Huppert for her role of a successful businesswoman in Elle.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actress: Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actress-drama/.


Ryan Gosling is already seen as the winner of Golden Globe for Best Actor - Musical or Comedy, and the lead actor of La La Land doesn’t face great competition in this category. It was nice seeing Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins, and Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool but either of them will hardly prevail.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actor: Musical or Comedy
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actor-musical-or-comedy/.


Category that will take more attention than it usually does is Best Actress in TV Drama. Evan Rachel Wood was in the last few months superb in Westworld, before her Winona Ryder was impressive in Stranger Things, but big chances are also given to Claire Foy for her role of Queen Elizabeth II in The Crown.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actress: TV Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actress-tv-drama/.

So, who are your favorites in all of these categories? And hurry up to place the bets on them at Fairlay markets.
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December 21, 2016, 03:55:24 PM
 #146

Bitcoin is going up, but where will it stop? At $850, $900, $1200?

Bitcoin finally passed the $800 value, for the first time since February 2014. And soon after breaking this "psychological barrier" it started going crazy and is currently trading at $827 (just a few minutes ago it was at $822). So, where will it stop?

Bitcoin to top 850 USD before January 1? Fairlay market gives this 57% chances.
Predict at https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-850-usd-before-january-1/.


Among other things, Chinese trading is a significant factor behind bitcoin's above the $800 mark. Trading volumes in China have been "extraordinary", with 10 million bitcoins traded on days in October and November. This has now subsided to a steady trading of around 3.5 million bitcoins a day.

Bitcoin to top 900 USD before January 1? Fairlay market gives this 24% chances.
Predict at https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-900-usd-before-january-1/.


"Ah I see what's happening. #Bitcoin short positions are getting crushed. Yep, we just may see $1K before the end of the year," is the kind of the comments going around on the current changes in price. But will Bitcoin go super high?

Bitcoin to top $1200 before March 2017? Fairlay market gives this 26% chances.
Predict at https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1200-before-mar-2017/.


So, as it surpasses $800 for the first time in three years, this is surely a big day for Bitcoin. And as The Chinese yuan at the same time traded near its weakest level in eight years, could the following days, weeks, or even months make Bitcoin even stronger? Well, use plenty of Fairlay markets to make even more Bitcoins.
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January 09, 2017, 12:18:56 PM
 #147

La La Land won seven Golden Globe Awards last night but can it repeat that at the Oscars?

Till the last night only two films have won six Golden Globe Awards (One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest and Midnight Express), but last night that superlative changed as La La Land won the seven Golden Globe Awards. At the same time this film directed by Damien Chazelle also won all the seven Golden Globes that it was nominated for.

But can La La Land repeat this at The Oscars?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.


The 89th Academy Awards will take place on February 26, with nominations announced on January 24. Last night showed that it is not a surprise that Fairlay market gives La La Land 80% chances to win the Best Picture award. And it looks like that only Manchester by the Sea or Moonlight can stop La La Land from prevailing.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.


Things are almost the same in the Best Director category as Damien Chazelle, director of La La Land, is now given 81% chances at Fairlay. And Kenneth Lonergan, director of Manchester by the Sea, is the second favorite, while some think that Barry Jenkins could after all be awarded for creating Moonlight.



The Oscars 2016 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.

And if you think that La La Land will sweep The Oscars but you want bigger odds, then Best Actor and Best Actress are markets for you. Ryan Gosling, lead actor of La La Land, is given only 8% chances for winning the Best Actor Awards, as Casey Affleck for a lead role in Manchester by the Sea is the biggest favorite with 75% given.


The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-1/.


While both Gosling and Affleck got Golden Globes for actors last night, Emma Stone for La La Land and Isabelle Huppert for Elle got Golden Globes for actresses. But which of them will win the Best Actress Award at Oscars, or could that be won by Natalie Portman for Jackie? Anyway, for either of them odds are huge at the moment.

So, Golden Globes are given but who are you favorites for The Oscars?
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January 22, 2017, 01:46:47 PM
 #148

Trump has already signed an executive order against Obamacare but will he end Obamacare in 2017?

In one of his first official actions, new President Donald Trump signed an executive order late Friday that directed federal agencies to use their authority to relieve individual Americans, businesses, state governments and others from “burdens” placed on them by the Affordable Care Act, adopted by the term "Obamacare".

As Los Angeles Times writes, the Trump administration and its Republican allies in Congress billed the order as a first step in their push to repeal Obamacare. So, does this mean the new President has scrapped the 2010 healthcare law “on Day One,” as he once promised he would do? Or is this just more talk from the new President?

Will Trump end Obamacare in 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-trump-end-obamacare-in-2017/.


But even if Trump wants to do this, Obamacare cannot be repealed so easily. It can only be repealed by another law, which would require an act of Congress, not just an executive order from the President. That is why congressional Republicans are debating how to craft a new law that could supplant all or part of the one Obama signed in 2010.

So, Republican lawmakers have been struggling with how to fulfill their pledge to repeal the healthcare law, replace it with something else and preserve coverage for the more than 20 million people who rely on it. To do this, they will have to design a path to transition from the current Obamacare system to whatever they come up with.

But, can Trump and his administration do this while preventing the current system from collapsing? Also, can they do this before 2018? Also, note that in order for this Fairlay market to pass, it is enough for Obamacare to be renamed, not just ended. What is your opinion on this, or is it still too soon to predict what will Trump do?
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January 24, 2017, 05:05:19 PM
 #149

Oscars nominations are here: La La Land has 14, Arrival and Moonlight 8, but who will prevail in the end?

Today La La Land equaled record for the most Oscar nominations, as this beautiful musical continued impressive awards season with 14 nods, and so leveled with current nominee record-holders All About Eve and Titanic. In the end Titanic won 11 Oscars, but how many will La La Land will, and can it complete The Big 4 for Picture, Director, Actor and Actress?

How many of the 'Big 4' Oscars will La La Land win?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/how-many-of-the-big-4-oscars-will-la-la-land-win/.


La La Land is a huge favorite for both Best Picture and Best Director Damien Chazelle, but it is a question can it also win awards for the Best Actor and Best Actress. As for the other movies, Moonlight got eight nominations, the same number as Arrival. But can either of them, or some other movie stop La La Land from winning the Best Picture Award?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture-1/.


With the six nominations follow Lion and Manchester by the Sea whose director Kenneth Lonergan is the second favorite for the Best Director, and it looks like that only he or Barry Jankins, who directed Moonlight, can stop Damien Chazelle from being the big winner. Or can maybe Best Director Award go to Denis Villeneuve for creating Arrival?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-director-1/.


Best Actor is one of the categories where La La Land is not amongst the main favorites as its Ryan Gosling in only third favorite at the Fairlay market. By far the biggest favorite is Casey Affleck for his lead role in a drama Manchester by the Sea, while the second favorite is Denzel Washington for the role in his own movie Fences. Who will celebrate in the end?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor-1/.


Emma Stone is the first favorite for the Best Actress, though she is far from the big favorite. The main reason for this is Natalie Portman who was superb portraying Jackie Kennedy. So, who of them will prevail, or could we have a surprise as other nominees are Isabelle Huppert for Elle, Ruth Negga for Loving, and Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-2/.


Hell or High Water is another movie with six nominations, and its Jeff Bridges is one of the actors who could win the Best Supporting Actor Award. Though Michael Shannon for his role in Nocturnal Animals is ranked high, it looks like this will after all be an easy win for Mahershala Ali and his role in Moonlight. But, could this category bring one of the surprises?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Supporting Actor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-supporting-actor/.


It is almost the same story for the Best Supporting Actress Award as Viola Davis is the huge favorite for her role in Fences. Michelle Williams, Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, and Octavia Spencer were all great in their roles but its rather unlikely that any of them will be awarded. Still, you never know, and thus hurry up to make your own Oscars predictions.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Supporting Actress
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-supporting-actress/.
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February 06, 2017, 01:10:56 PM
 #150

Juppe confirms he will not replace scandal-ridden Fillon: Will Emmanuel Macron be the next French President?

Few weeks ago it looked like Francois Fillon will easily become the next French President, but the election has recently been thrown open since allegations that the longstanding centre-right favourite paid his wife and children close to €1m of public money for parliamentary assistance jobs that investigators suspect she did not do.

These days speculation started that Alain Juppe could replace scandal-ridden Fillon who could drop out as the Republicans candidate, but this morning Juppe confirmed on his twitter feed that he stands behind Fillon. As you remember, Juppe was the first favourite on the markets before he lost the Republicans primary in November.

With all of this, the most unpredictable French election in decades picked up pace. So, who will win them?

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.


This weekend far-right leader Marion Le Pen published a presidential programme built around putting France first, reclaiming sovereignty from the EU and curbing immigration. And opinion polls still predict Le Pen will win the first round of the two-stage contest in April but be defeated in the May 7 run-off by a mainstream candidate.

And, with Francois Fillon losing all the trust, this mainstream candidate is now centrist Emmanuel Macron. Former Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs is now given a 46% chance at the newest Fairlay market, with Marine Le Pen at 33%, while Francois Fillon is now given only a 13% chance to become the next French President.

We saw that a lot can change overnight in France, but who will prevail in the end? Macron, Le Pen, someone else?
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February 06, 2017, 05:42:25 PM
 #151

If $1000 is becoming a support level, can Bitcoin hit $1200, $1300, or even $1400 before April?

Bitcoin prices experienced notable gains in the recent weeks, pushing higher while analysts pointed to the recent improvement in sentiment as the impetus for the increases. Some think that $1000 is becoming a support level, but what will then happen in the next two months?

Bitcoin to top 1200 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 57% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1200-usd-before-april-1/.


Earlier this month, as CoinDesk writes, trader sentiment encountered headwinds when bitcoin’s sharp price volatility motivated the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to intervene and meet with major Chinese exchanges BTCC, Huobi and OKCoin. The startups later eliminated margin trading and began charging trading fees, two developments some have speculated would help reduce volatility.

Bitcoin to top 1300 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 33% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1300-usd-before-april-1/.


However, bitcoin trading volume flooded to no-fee exchanges, which once again raised the question of which trading volume figures were reliable. More recently, traders have become more optimistic, according to several market observers. So, will Bitcoin Price go up even more before April?

Bitcoin to top 1400 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 21% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1400-usd-before-april-1/.
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February 07, 2017, 01:50:40 PM
 #152

German Federal Election: Will CDU/CSU win the most seats, and will Angela Merkel take the fourth term in office?

This year brings few of the high-stakes elections around the European Union that, after Brexit, could bring even greater uncertainty to the bloc. It all starts with the Netherlands’ General Election on March 15, continues with France’s Presidential Election in April and May, and should finish on September 24 with German Federal Election.

Will the end of September bring another term for Chancellor Angela Merkel, or will she be stopped this year?

Merkel to be replaced as Chancellor in 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/merkel-to-be-replaced-as-chancellor-in-2017/.




As France24 wrote recently, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union or CSU, are widely tipped to win the largest share of seats, handing Chancellor Angela Merkel a fourth term in office. But they are unlikely to match the 42% of votes won in 2013, since the winds of rebellion that have swept across the Western world are also lashing at Europe’s bastion of stability.

Merkel's "open door" refugee policy and a heightened terrorist threat have exposed her to unprecedented criticism, and some surveys showed that support for the right-wing, anti-immigrant, anti-Islam, Eurosceptic AfD (Alternative for Germany) party had soared to more than 15% nationwide. Could they use the following months even better?

But AfD is still the third favorite behind Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), and the Social Democrats (SPD).

German Federal Election - Most Seats
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/german-federal-election-most-seats/.



Angela Merkel surely likes being the German chancellor and she already announced that she will run for a fourth term (she has held the post since 2005) but on Monday she also admitted that she was facing the toughest election campaign of her career, as a shock opinion poll found her party trailing for the first time in almost seven years.

According to the poll for Bild newspaper, Martin Schulz, the former European parliament president and outspoken EU critic, is now leading the race to be Germany’s next leader. His centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) came first with 31 per cent, ahead of Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) on 30 per cent. Thus, Martin Schulz has now emerged as the most serious challenger Angela Merkel has faced in more than a decade in power.

Though Angela Merkel is still Fairlay’s favorite, Schulz is not far behind. So, September 24 will be all but a boring day.

German Federal Election - Next Elected Chancellor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/german-federal-election-next-elected-chancellor/.
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February 07, 2017, 01:56:19 PM
 #153

If $1000 is becoming a support level, can Bitcoin hit $1200, $1300, or even $1400 before April?

Bitcoin prices experienced notable gains in the recent weeks, pushing higher while analysts pointed to the recent improvement in sentiment as the impetus for the increases. Some think that $1000 is becoming a support level, but what will then happen in the next two months?

Bitcoin to top 1200 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 57% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1200-usd-before-april-1/.


Earlier this month, as CoinDesk writes, trader sentiment encountered headwinds when bitcoin’s sharp price volatility motivated the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to intervene and meet with major Chinese exchanges BTCC, Huobi and OKCoin. The startups later eliminated margin trading and began charging trading fees, two developments some have speculated would help reduce volatility.

Bitcoin to top 1300 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 33% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1300-usd-before-april-1/.


However, bitcoin trading volume flooded to no-fee exchanges, which once again raised the question of which trading volume figures were reliable. More recently, traders have become more optimistic, according to several market observers. So, will Bitcoin Price go up even more before April?

Bitcoin to top 1400 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 21% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1400-usd-before-april-1/.


This is good, so we bet against the counterparty right? And you don't charge money for beta version, what is the profit source to your site?
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February 07, 2017, 06:52:31 PM
 #154

This is good, so we bet against the counterparty right? And you don't charge money for beta version, what is the profit source to your site?
You are right, you bet against the other users, while Fairlay's profit comes from a 2% turnover fee from the winning bets (though there are no fees in the sports betting category). And here is another interesting Bitcoin market for you:


Segregated Witness' political implications: Will SegWit activate before November?

“Bitcoin Unlimited blocks are on the rise while Core block are dropping. #Segwit activation at 95% is not happening anytime soon.“

“If the brilliant "BU Economists" weren't politicking, they'd acknowledge #SegWit would lower fees today & they would push for activation.“

“Angry guys can get a lot done, and a commitment to stick with BU is yet another actor blocking #SegWit activation.“

These are some of the recent tweets regarding Segregated Witness which confirm that SegWit is still controversial due to its political implications for the Bitcoin ecosystem. Could those stop Segregated Witness from activating?

Will SegWit activate before November 1st 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-segwit-activate-before-november-1st-2017/.



But it is not only about 'Bitcoin Core vs Bitcoin Unlimited' as a lot of companies remain undecided on whether or not they should prepare SegWit support. The longer the companies wait, the longer it will take for SegWit activation.

In the meantime, the number of SegWit-enabled blocks discovered on the networks is still around low 25%. Thus, it is a big question can (and if, when) Seg Wit reach 95% support?

And though some people are confident SegWit will activate in March, even November activation is not a sure thing. In fact, Fairlay market gives SegWit only a 37% chance to activate before November.

So, what do you think? Will issues in politics be resolved by hand with those in technology, and will Bitcoin Unlimited supporters and companies stand behind Segregated Witness? Or will SegWit soon become just a part of history?
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February 08, 2017, 10:04:31 AM
 #155

Far-right party still leading in Dutch polls: Will PVV and Geert Wilders prevail in March 15 General Election?

We already have markets for France’s Presidential Election in April and May, and German Federal Election that is scheduled for September 24 but the set of high-stakes elections that could derail the European Union starts on March 15 with the Dutch General Election. And the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) is leading in the polls.

Leader of PVV is Geert Wilders, who has already called for a Brexit-style referendum on quitting the EU and a ban on immigration from Muslim countries. With this rebellious mood that helped Brexit and Trump, his anti-EU, anti-immigrant and anti-Islam party could take the following election and most seats in the next government.

Dutch General Election - Most Seats
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/dutch-general-election-most-seats/.




However, even if it wins the General Election it is unlikely that the PVV will be part of the next coalition. A broad coalition of other mainstream parties is still likely to shut Wilders and his PVV out. In January, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte ruled out a coalition between his People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the PVV.

As some of the recent polls showed that Geert Wilders' PVV is set to win 35 of the 76 seats needed to form a coalition government (as the VVD is about to win just 23), there are opinions that Wilders is not too far away from becoming the Dutch Prime Minister. Fairlay market gives a 29% chance for this to happen. What do you think?

Geert Wilders to become Dutch Prime Minister in 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/geert-wilders-to-become-dutch-prime-minister-in-2017/.
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February 08, 2017, 04:53:56 PM
 #156

Bitfinex's Token (BFX) reached all time price high of $0.84: Will it reach $1 before 2018?

Remember August 2 and Bitfinex Hack? You probably do. Maybe you are even of of the Bitfinex depositor that took a 36% loss, and was credited with an equivalent number of Bitfinex tokens (BFX) representing the dollar value of the loss. Well, if you still have those BFX tokens you can now sell them at $0.84, all time price high.

So, in the start Bitfinex $1 loss granted 1 BFX in return, and it was a long-term idea that Bitfinex attempts to buy back those tokens as close to face value as possible. In August, many didn't think that even $0.5 in return was possible.

But BFX soon started to grow, and after trading within a range of between $0.49 and $0.65 through the end of 2016, the price of BFX has followed a steady, upward trend, rising almost 60% from its recent low of $0.49 in December. And with its current price of $0.83, it looks like BFX could soon reach the magic price of $1.

Will 1 BFX reach 1 USD?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-1-bfx-reach-1-usd/.



As CoinDesk wrote recently, the Bitfinex tokens have enjoyed notable gains lately as investors continue to purchase them in anticipation of later redeeming them for dollars or equity in iFinex Inc, Bitfinex’s parent company.

And in January statement Bitfinex said that it will continue to "expeditiously retire" more tokens via a variety of initiatives going forward. Thus, some think that all the tokens could be 'retired' in 2017, and that means that BFX could reach $1 before 2018. With the recent rise, it could even happen in the following months.

So, what do you think? How soon will BFX reach $1 and could its price go even above $1 before all the tokens are 'retired'? After slow opening, Fairlay market now gives a 85% chance for 1 BFX to reach 1 USD in 2017.
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February 09, 2017, 10:23:56 AM
 #157

Russian Presidential Election is set for March 2018: Will Vladimir Putin be re-elected?

Yesterday, Russia's main opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, has been found guilty of embezzlement and handed a five-year suspended sentence. This bars him from running for president next year against Vladimir Putin.

So yes, current President Vladimir Putin is eligible to seek re-election at the Russian presidential election that is scheduled to be held on March 11, 2018 for the first round and April 1, 2018 for the potential second round.

Now the only question is will he enter elections and then win them? January 30 polling once again gave him high 65%, with Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who is already confirmed as candidate of Liberal Democratic Party, following with only 10%. Potential Communist Party candidate Gennady Zyuganov is polling with 4%, all others with 1% or less.

Russian Presidential Election
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/russian-presidential-election/.




Besides not entering elections, only thing stopping Putin from winning is some major economic crisis but it's not likely to happen in the following years. So, those who want to use high odds betting against Putin can use rumors that Putin will not enter as they are preparing the new guy, someone like Alexey Dyumin, Governor of Tula Oblast.

There are also many other potential replacements from the ruling United Russia party, those like former President and current Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, or Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov.

With Navalny barred from running, Putin entering or not entering elections will probably decide them. But could it be smart to already bet on anyone but Putin if rumors of him not running are true? You have Fairlay for that.
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February 09, 2017, 03:56:28 PM
 #158

Will Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC on March 11?

Three years ago, the Winklevoss brothers, twins Cameron and Tyler, had filed their first application for a bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) called Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. Investors soon showed keen interest in the Winklevoss ETF but it is still scheduled to be approved by the SEC (the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission).

If this approval happens, this would be the first bitcoin ETF issued by a U.S. entity, and this ETF would trade under the ticker symbol COIN. In October, they also filed amendments to their proposed bitcoin exchange-traded fund, naming State Street (American worldwide financial services holding company) as administrator.

At the start of January, the SEC said it will decide on March 11 whether to approve the COIN. Soon after that Needham & Company (independent investment bank and asset management firm specializing in advisory services and financings for growth companies) put together a report on the prospects of the Winklevoss twins’ proposed ETF.

Will a bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.




According to the report, the positive effect that a bitcoin ETF would have on the price of bitcoin is vastly underappreciated, and the probability of approval is drastically overestimated within the industry (not a surprise as it would, in the first week alone, lead to an influx of $300 million in new investor capital into the bitcoin ecosystem).

Thus, Needham puts the chances of a bitcoin ETF approval in 2017 at below 25 percent. As Bitcoin Magazine notes, due to the nascent nature of the technology as well as the fear, uncertainty and doubt surrounding it, Needham thinks approval of the bitcoin ETF will be too risky a proposition for individuals working at the SEC at this time.

The SEC already had few delays about this decision but it's important to note that the series of possible extensions permitted by law is capped at 240 days from the initial submission date in June 2016. So, March 11 should bring the answer, and what do you think it will be? At the moment, Fairlay market gives this approval only a 23% chance.
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February 10, 2017, 09:53:46 AM
 #159

When will the UK trigger Article 50, and in which year will it leave the EU?

Britain voted to leave the European Union at a referendum held 232 days ago, but that referendum in which British voters opted to leave the European Union did not automatically signal the country's exit. That is the job of Article 50, and Britain's negotiations to exit the EU can only begin when Article 50 is formally triggered by the UK.

When will Article 50 be triggered?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-the-uk-trigger-article-50-before-1-july-2017/.


Theresa May finally revealed ahead of her first speech as Prime Minister at the Tory Party Conference that she would trigger Article 50, formally notifying the intention to withdraw, no later than the end of March 2017. And as Telegraph writes, that means Britain should officially leave the EU no later than April 2019. 

Thus, the process of the UK leaving the EU is supposed to take two years but many people believe that it could take longer. The road ahead is unclear. No state has left the European Union before, and the rules for exit, contained in Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon (which became law in December 2009), are brief.



In which year will the UK leave the EU?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/in-which-year-will-the-uk-leave-the-eu/.


The next stage of the Article 50 will see the Brexit bill scrutinized by the House of Lords, where the Government does not have a majority, on Monday, February 20. So, it is likely that Article 50 will be triggered before July, and Fairlay market gives it a high 90% chance. But will the UK leave the EU in 2019? Other Fairlay market gives it a 73% chance.

Or, if the government decides that parliament and public opinion have thoroughly turned against Brexit, the UK could simply go cap in hand to the EU and "ask whether we can just forget the whole thing and remain a member", as it was explained by the fact-checking charity Full Fact. What do you think about all of this?
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February 10, 2017, 12:41:25 PM
 #160

I need to test this game where all users can create their own bet it looks cool Smiley

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