Prediction Markets at Fairlay - Suggest your own and Bet on them

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Can Bitcoin Unlimited overatake SegWit, and then reach a 75% support during this year?

Though it looked rather different few months ago, things are once again changing when it comes to scaling. After the great start, SegWit unexpectedly stalled at around 25%, and has been slightly dropping in the past few weeks. And SegWit's future doesn't look great as Fairlay market now gives it only a 22% chance to activate before November.

But while SegWit has stalled, Bitcoin Unlimited has quietly gained further adoption. As reporter Andrew Quentson wrote last month, a considerable increase in its difficulty coincides with the entrance of a new miner, BTC.TOP. They appear to be mining on Unlimited, the fourth new miner to do so, following ViaBTC, GBMiners and bitcoin.com.

Will Bitcoin Unlimited reach 75% support in 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-bitcoin-unlimited-reach-75-support-in-2017/.



It appears, therefore, that rather than a stalemate miners have made a clear decision. They seem to have fully rejected SegWit. They appear to strongly require a maxblocksize increase and the newer miners seem to clearly prefer Bitcoin Unlimited as they are convinced that Bitcoin Unlimited is the best approach at the moment.

So, this new dynamic suggests that with Bitcoin Unlimited now nearing 20%, potentially further increasing as the new miners exploit inefficiencies and grab all opportunities, the network might not be far off from a significant threshold where other miners have little choice, but to join. Thus, can Bitcoin Unlimited reach 75% support?

[1713879002]

1713879002

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Trump tweeted “SEE YOU IN COURT” but will Supreme Court review, and then reinstate his travel ban?

The Justice Department said in a brief filed on yesterday that it would continue to defend President Trump’s targeted ban in the federal appeals court in San Francisco, which last week refused to reinstate it. As The New York Times notes, the department did not say whether it would try to appeal that ruling to the Supreme Court.

But its silence on the matter suggested that the Trump administration will not pursue an immediate appeal. So, it is possible that administration may have decided that the chances of success at the Supreme Court are poor, as it appears unlikely that any of the court’s four more liberal justices would support the administration’s position.



Will Supreme Court reinstate Trump travel ban?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-supreme-court-reinstate-trump-travel-ban/.

Thus, unless the appeals court or the Supreme Court acts, Judge Robart’s temporary restraining order, which blocked the key provisions of targeted travel ban, will remain in place. Still, for many Trump’s tweet “SEE YOU IN COURT, THE SECURITY OF OUR NATION IS AT STAKE!” indicated that he will ask the Supreme Court to review the appeal.

But if the Supreme Court agreed to hear an emergency appeal in the case, a ruling might be expected quickly, within days, given the brisk pace of appeals so far. Thus, the next question is will Trump appeal the case, and then it’s all on the side of Supreme Court. At the moment, Fairlay market gives only a 29% chance that it will reinstate Trump ban.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Bitcoin's price battles resistance at $1,000: How long will it take for a $1000 level to break?

Bitcoin prices continued to fluctuate around $1,000 these days, some hours above and some hours below it. Currently it is at $1009, but it will be interesting to see where will it go next as there are many factors at the moment. Focus is on China, but there is also possible approval of Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, while support for either SegWit or Bitcoin Unlimited could go up in the following months. And how will all of this influence Bitcoin price?

Bitcoin price on March 1
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-march-1-6/.

As CoinDesk explains, all eyes are still on China as, according to analysts, traders remain reluctant about placing bets in the market, as concerns linger about further actions from the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the nation's central bank. The digital currency has experienced significant volatility in the last several weeks, as the PBOC's decision to crack down on domestic exchanges has caused these marketplaces to announce a slew of sudden policy changes.

Bitcoin to top 1150 USD before March 1
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1150-usd-before-march-1/.

But trader sentiment is also a factor and there's evidence backing this theory, as traders put in a large number sell orders around the $1,000 price point. This resistance was confirmed by both order book data and the input of market analysts. Exchanges Bitfinex and Kraken showed the number of sell orders exceeding the number of buy orders close to the $1,000 mark. So, it looks like that $1,000 is a level that is going to take some time to break.



Bitcoin price on April 1
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-april-1-5/.

"The $1,000 level is indeed a strong psychological resistance. Bitcoin will need to cleanly break above $1,000 (high-volume rise and sustained price action above 1000) to transform that level into price support," explained for CoinDesk Petar Zivkovski, COO of leveraged bitcoin trading platform Whaleclub. He added that there are potential bullish catalysts, citing the approval of a Bitcoin ETF or positive regulatory news from China as two possible boons.

Will a bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.

Thus, it remains to be seen how the markets will evolve over the coming weeks. The bitcoin price has held firm so far, although there is still a bit of unrest to be noted all over the world. As The Merkle notes, China is no longer in charge of dictating the global average value of bitcoin. But, without market not being dictated by one nation, what will happen with Bitcoin Price in the next week? Will it go up, down, or will stay around $1000 for the time being?

Bitcoin to top 1300 USD before May 1
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1300-usd-before-may-1/.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor fight getting closer? Will it happen this, or at least the next year?

News broke on the morning of Valentine’s Day that Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor have agreed financial terms for a boxing match that would be one of the $$$ ones in the sport’s history. So, will this fight actually happen?

Rumors about Mayweather’s comeback started in April last year, and already in May started talks that fight between Mayweather and MMA star McGregor is in the works. But, till two days ago, most viewed the likelihood of this matchup to be more fantasy than reality, and then couple of different reports told that the fight is rather possible.



Will Mayweather vs. McGregor happen in 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-mayweather-vs-mcgregor-happen-in-2017/.

Still, at the same time, UFC boss Dana White has dealt a blow to fight fans hoping to see a clash between Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather, by insisting the showdown will never happen as Conor has contract with MMA.

Thus, will UFC star Conor McGregor ever step into the ring to face boxing legend Floyd Mayweather? It is also important to note that any fight would almost certainly be under boxing rules (at Fairlay market for this fight to happen it must be an official licensed boxing contest) as McGregor also applied for a boxing license last year.



Will Mayweather vs. McGregor happen before 2019?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-mayweather-vs-mcgregor-happen-before-2019/.

Though Mayweather has not fought since September 2015, and McGregor is the current UFC lightweight champion, boxing pundits think that Mayweather would absolutely dust McGregor, as McGregor has no pro boxing experience.

But, in the end, it is all about money. For Mayweather to step from his wealthy retirement, the money has to be right. And as Mayweather can wait, McGregor needs him far more than he needs McGregor. So, will this fight happen this, or at least next year? There are different opinions and now you can make your own at Fairlay.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

April 23 brings the French presidential election: Who will win the first round, and who will be in the runoff?

As Bloomberg wrote this morning, French bonds are weakening on the news that two left-wing candidates, Benoit Hamon and Jean-Luc Melenchon, are holding talks to unify their campaigns, potentially setting up a final-round showdown between Marine Le Pen and a leftist. At the same time, markets perceive this to be good news for the anti-euro candidate, and her odds of winning in the betting markets have hit a new high of about 35 percent.

Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.

Fairlay’s market gives Le Pen a 31% chance at the moment, with Emmanuel Macron still in lead with a 44% chance to be the next French President. As Francois Fillon has a 17% chance, could the possible cooperation of two main left-leaning candidates get on move option ‘Other’ that is now at only 12%? As for the first round vote, scheduled for April 23, with runoff set for May 7, Marine Le Pen is still a rather big favorite to win the most votes in April.



Next French President: First round winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-first-round-winner/.

Since the start of January, Le Pen has been in lead at all the ‘First round’ polls that give her now around a 26% chance, with Macron and FIllon tied at 20% for the first round. But new Fairlay market gives Le Pen high 69%, Macron is at 24%, while Fillon and all the other candidates are almost without the chance to prevail in April. Still, possible uniting of the left could easily change all of this, and who would then enter the runoff in May?

Next French President: Final Two
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-final-two-1/.

It is not a surprise that the combination of Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen is given the most chances to be on the runoff election, while Francois Fillon and Marine Le Pen facing each other on May 7 wouldn’t be such a surprise either. But could Benoit Hamon or Jean-Luc Melenchon find their way to the runoff as well, or could Le Pen stay without it? Well, with Trump and Brexit we learned that anything is possible so predict wisely at Fairlay markets.

[Klaasje]

i say Macron wins


https://bitcoingarden.org/forum/index.php?topic=12740.msg139452#msg139452

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

i say Macron wins

https://bitcoingarden.org/forum/index.php?topic=12740.msg139452#msg139452

Well, good luck to you. But before the French presidential election, could we have a big change in the Bitcoin price?

How high will go Bitcoin price on March 15, if Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC on March 11?

Winklevoss twins’ Bitcoin ETF is taking more and more focus of the Bitcoin community as on March 11 the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) should finally make YES or NO verdict in case of the final and official approval of the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF (COIN). We already talked about the chances of this approval coming through.

Most think that this ETF will not be approved as they agree that this approval of the Bitcoin ETF is too risky a proposition for individuals working at the SEC at this time. Still, approval’s chances at Fairlay market got a bit up recently as it is now given a 32% chance, after being at 23% ten days ago. So, could this approval really happen?



Will a Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.

And as chances for this approval are slightly going up, talk about how high up will Bitcoin price go after the approval is rather popular these days. That Bitcoin will go up is almost sure, as ETF would likely attract more than $300 million into the market in its first week alone. Some even say that up to $1 billion will be injected into the market.

Ten days ago, quantitative analysis and value research firm, Emerita Capital, assigned a probability of 35% for approval against 65% probability of rejection, making final average expected price $1645. They also provide a target price of $3,678 for Bitcoin in case an ETF is approved in 2017 and a target price of $551 in case it is rejected this year.



Bitcoin price on March 15 if Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-march-15-if-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-is-approved-by-the-sec/.

So, it is sure that the approval of this Bitcoin ETF could set off a trading frenzy, but how big could it be? As WSJ explained, the small size of the Bitcoin market could still be an impediment to orderly fund trading. Across all U.S. exchanges the average daily volume of bitcoin traded is about $30 million. Thus, it's not easy to grab $300 million.

Though, it is also noted that it’s impossible to buy $2 million of bitcoin on any given day on U.S. exchanges without moving the market. So, if Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF is approved on March 11, what could happen in the following days, and where could Bitcoin price be on March 15? Up to $1200, $1400, above $1500? Well, predict at Fairlay.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Kim Dotcom faces US Extradition but will he indeed be extradited to the USA?

“My C̶o̶p̶y̶r̶i̶g̶h̶t̶ no sorry, my Fraud judgement has been reported by 8642 news sites in 196 countries. Most prominent case in NZ history,” twitted Kim Dotcom, founder of file-storage and file-sharing companies Mega and Megaupload, after he has suffered another defeat in court. In the latest ruling, New Zealand High Court upheld an earlier decision finding that Dotcom and business associates could be extradited to the USA to face charges.

As TechCrunch noted, while the latest legal decision means Dotcom could face charges in the USA, it is a victory in one sense: As part of the ruling, Justice Gilbert agreed with one of Dotcom’s arguments, namely that New Zealand had no equivalent “copyright” crime that could be used to activate the extradition treaty. However, the High Court ruled that Dotcom and others could be extradited on USA fraud and racketeering charges.



So, will Kim Dotcom be extradited to USA?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-kim-dotcom-be-extradited-to-usa/.

Once again, Dotcom plans to appeal the ruling, which could send the case to the Court of Appeal and perhaps even the New Zealand Supreme Court. In an interview with the New Zealand Herald, Dotcom predicted there are still another two years of legal battles ahead: "We'll be looking at a seven-year total timeframe before there is a final resolution on this matter. I am now more confident than ever that we will prevail." Will they, indeed?

“Don't worry. Be happy. I'll never be extradited,“ twitted the ever-confident Dotcom as well yesterday. But, most think that Kim Dotcom is likely to be extradited to the USA, despite a New Zealand judge clearing him of local copyright infringement. His legal team managed to clear his name of copyright infringement, but will Kim Dotcom in the next two years be extradited to the United States of America to face trial for other 13 counts? Predict at Fairlay.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Marine Le Pen and leaving Euro: Will Deutsche Bank go bankrupt if Le Pen becomes the French President?

As Deutsche Welle wrote recently, Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest lender, has accrued a massive loss for the second year running as legal costs for past misdeeds outstripped profits from bond trading, disappointing investors who had hoped for a better result.

The troubled German banking giant reported a net loss of 1.4 billion euros ($1.5 billion) for 2016, so Deutsche Bank is still struggling with the impact of huge fines, lower revenues and restructuring costs. And later on, New York and British financial regulators slapped Deutsche Bank with a $630-million penalty for alleged money laundering in Russia.



Will Deutsche Bank go bankrupt if Marine Le Pen becomes the French President?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-deutsche-bank-go-bankrupt-if-marine-le-pen-becomes-french-president/.

Today, Business Insider wrote that Deutsche Bank is set to announce another big shake-up in its senior ranks. The changes would be the latest in a series of leadership changes at the bank that could face even bigger problems in May, if Marine Le Pen becomes the next French President as she has promised to renegotiate the terms of France's membership of the European Union if elected president.

So, many agree that Deutsche Bank, which is already in freefall, could get near bankruptcy if Le Pen becomes the next French President. Even if it gets on the brink of bankruptcy, it could easily be bailed out by German government, though Fairlay market resolves this like bankruptcy as well. So, what will happen?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Eurovision Song Contest 2017: Can anyone stop Italy and Francesco Gabbani from winning it this year?

Eurovision 2016 market was one of the most popular Fairlay markets last year, so it is already time to start making the predictions for Eurovision 2017. This year Eurovision will take place take place in Kiev, following Ukraine's victory at the 2016 contest in Stockholm. It will consist of two semi-finals held on 9 and 11 May and the final on 13 May 2017.

43 countries will participate this year, and though some of them still didn’t announce who will represent them (they will in the following weeks), there is already a lot of talk about the potential winners. For that matter, most eyes are on Sweden that is still to hold Final of its Melodifestivalen 2017, with plenty of popular artists looking for their place in Kiev.



Eurovision 2017 - Winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/eurovision-2017-winner/.

Because of this, Sweden is already the second favorite at Eurovison 2017 market, followed by Greece and its beautiful Dimitra Papadea, also known as Demy, and Russia that is still to announce its candidate. Australia, which is to announce its candidate on Tuesday, is still ranked high, as well as Romania which will keep its National Final on Sunday.

Still, most of the talk at the moment is about Italy and its Francesco Gabbani. He will come to Kiev with the ‘Occidentali's Karma’ song that already won the Sanremo Music Festival 2017, and has 40 million Youtube views since its release three weeks ago. So, Eurovision market opens with Italy being the biggest favorite but will that change in the next weeks?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

How likely is Bitcoin ETF approval? Friday will bring the answer but what will it be?

March 11 has for weeks been in the focus of Bitcoin community as the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) decision on the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is scheduled for that day. Though, because the 11th falls on a Saturday, that decision will likely come tomorrow. But what will it be, and will Bitcoin ETF be approved?

As CoinTelegraph wrote yesterday, around 72 percent of the public is in favor of the Bitcoin ETF approval so far. The other 28 percent have cited some of the issues the Bitcoin network is dealing with, but in consideration of the state of the Bitcoin network as of current, the problems mentioned by ETF opposers aren’t necessarily urgent issues which the SEC should consider for the ETF approval.

Will a Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC?
Predict at: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.

One of the issues that were frequently brought up by the ETF opposers was the fear of hard fork. Some of the public comments included concerns over the execution of a potential hard fork and the occurrence of a split chain. A split in the chain could lead to the creation of another fork of bitcoin and essentially create two currencies, the 28 percent of the public stated that a Bitcoin ETF isn’t ready to be introduced to the public.

Still, at Fairlay market Bitcoin ETF Approaval is given an only 41 percent at the moment, as traders are already preparing for the storm. So, the SEC doesn’t benefit from the approval of the Bitcoin ETF as the SEC isn’t incentivized for the performance of the ETF but it will surely change the Bitcoin price a lot. In which way, up or down?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

2017 Nobel Peace Prize Winner: Pope Francis, American Civil Liberties Union, White Helmets, or someone else?

There were plenty of different reactions after the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the President of Colombia Juan Manuel Santos, as the announcement was a surprise since before that the national referendum on October 2 was narrowly defeated. What kind of reactions are we going to have after 2017 Nobel Peace Prize announcement?

It is not a surprise that Pope Francis is once again amongst the biggest favorites, and media will once again write that he should win it as the Pope has framed all the current issues in moral terms, asking for all of the world’s people and governments to reflect upon and live out their moral responsibilities to creation and the vulnerable people of the world.  

But, who else could take the Nobel Peace Prize this year? Currently, American Civil Liberties Union is a popular choice as their stated mission "to defend and preserve the individual rights and liberties guaranteed to every person in this country by the Constitution and laws of the United States" is a popular one against the policies of Donald Trump.



2017 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-nobel-peace-prize-winner/.

The White Helmets, a volunteer civil defense organization that currently operates in parts of rebel-controlled Syria, are once again amongst the favorites as they still wake up every day to save the lives others are trying so hard to take. These volunteer rescue workers have saved 85,228 lives in Syria, though they are every day under the constant attack.

As for the world leaders, Angela Merkel is again ranked high, while Nobel Peace Prize could posthumously be awarded to Jo Cox who, among the others things, supported the White Helmets in the last years of her life. Raif Badawi, a Saudi writer, dissident and activist, as well as the creator of the website Free Saudi Liberals, is also amongst the favorites.

Above named are among the six ranked highest at the this year Nobel Peace Prize Fairlay market, but option ‘Other’ could once again be popular as some think that persons like Amal Clooney, Sadiq Khan, or Michelle Obama could win it.  So, who is your favorite, and who will get us plenty of different reactions after the announcement is made in October?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

First round vote for the next French President: Who will win it and how many vote % will Marine Le Pen have?

Market for the next French President is one of the most popular ever at Fairlay, and it will be decided quite soon as the first round is scheduled for April 23, with the potential runoff at May 7. And though there were many changes at first, in the last couple of months Emmanuel Macron is keeping lead over Marine Le Pen, with Francoise Fillon staying behind.

Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.

And though Macron is the favorite to win the runoff, could he win the most votes in the First round as well? This week, a Le Monde/Cevipof opinion poll said that centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right rival Marine Le Pen are tied on 25 percent of the first-round election vote. So, it is a tight race and you can use that at Fairlay.

Next French President: First round winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-first-round-winner/.

Thus, at Fairay, Marine Le Pen is still given slightly bigger chance to win the first round but even if she wins it, with how many vote % will she win it? At the moment, 20% to 30% looks like a sure bet, but a lot of people think polls could once again be wrong. Could she go above 30%, or even 40%, or disappoint by staying above 20%? Well, make your opinion.

Marine Le Pen 1st round vote %
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/marine-le-pen-1st-round-vote/.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

TIME Person of the Year 2017: Angela Merkel, Theresa May, Emmanuel Macron, Narendra Modi, or someone else?

There was plenty of negative comments in December, when Donald Trump was announced ‘TIME Person of the Year 2016’ as many once again forgot that TIME Magazine gives this annual award to whichever person, group, idea or object that “for better or for worse...has done the most to influence the events of the year”. So, who could win it this year?

Angela Merkel won it in 2015, but she is still the No. 1 favorite to win it again as she could be re-elected Chancellor of Germany at the end of September. However, Martin Schulz could defeat her in September, so it is not a surprise to see him amongst the favorites as well. By stopping Merkel, he would surely took all the media focus at the end of the year.



TIME Person of the Year 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/time-person-of-the-year-2017/.

Before that, a lot will be decided in the next weeks as we face French Election. Emmanuel Macron is leading the polls (and Fairlay market), with Marine Le Pen still in the race. Being the favorite for the next French President, Macron is given rather big chances to become TIME Person of the year as well, behind Theresa May who is already leading the UK.

Ebola fighters won this award in 2014, The Protester in 2011, while this year The White Helmets lead the groups of people. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, was amongst the 10 runners-up last year and is still ranked high this year, as well as Pope Francis who already won the award in 2013. So, who will win it this year? Well, predict at Fairlay.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

AlphaGo vs. Ke Jie is scheduled for May: Does Chinese No.1 Go master player has any chances against Google’s AI?

After a lot of speculation in the recent months, it’s been confirmed lately that DeepMind’s AlphaGo will takes on world’s top Go player Ke Jie in China in a three-game match starting May 23. It will be AlpaGo’s second official match after in march last year it took on and defeated one of the world’s top Go players, Lee Sedol. So, can Ke Jie do any better?

Well, hardly. In fact, back in January AlphaGo secretly (like an unknown player called ‘Master’) played 60 online matches against some of the world's best players, including Ke Jie who was defeated three times, and didn't lose a single one.  Still, after those losses Ke Jie hasn’t given up hope, claiming that he still has ‘one last move’ to defeat AlphaGo.



Will AlphaGo beat Ke Jie in the three-game match planned for May 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-alphago-beat-ke-jie-in-the-three-game-match-planned-for-may-2017-1/.

Now, that ‘one last move’ for 19-year-old Ke Jie will be three matches on the 23rd, 25th and 27th of May. Though, after his first two losses to ‘Master’ in recent days, he acknowledged that humans are no match for AI in this game.  It was change in opinion after Ke had been confident that AlphaGo could not beat him after the AI’s March victory over Sedol.

What is even worse for Ke Jie is that he will not play against AlpaGo’s version that defeated Sedol. In fact, the AlphaGo that played against Lee Sedol was v18. The Master that achieved 60-0 was v25. And it was already noted that it will be the newest version playing against Ke Jie in May. He will have a really hard job, so do you give him any chances to win?

[upsidedown75]

Wow this seems so different than what we are used to.
A betting system on ANYTHING, I mean I could definitely support that. Plus for the last post I can say that I would definitely select AI over Human, in this case it is true as well, AlphaGo seems like he will take it. I am afraid what Google might achieve soon.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Wow this seems so different than what we are used to.
A betting system on ANYTHING, I mean I could definitely support that. Plus for the last post I can say that I would definitely select AI over Human, in this case it is true as well, AlphaGo seems like he will take it. I am afraid what Google might achieve soon.

It is nice to here that you like the idea of betting on anything, so use the chance to create you own market at Fairlay. In the meantime, here is one trending market:

Theresa May caught us by surprise as today she called for snap elections on June 8, so who will win Majority?

Britain's Theresa May on Tuesday called for snap elections on June 8, catching the country by surprise in a bid to bolster her position before tough talks on leaving the European Union. So, will he manage to do that in the following months?

As AFP notes, despite repeatedly rejecting calls from within her Conservative party for an early vote, May has now decided to take advantage of her commanding lead over the main opposition Labour Party in opinion polls.

That margin in opinion polls reached even 20 points in the latest polls, so there are huge chances that the UK will have Conservative Majority after potential June 8 election. Second option in Fairlay market is No Overall Majority at all.



UK General Election Majority
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/uk-general-election-majority/.

By the way, British election dates are enshrined in law and can be changed only by a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Theresa May said she would ask parliament on Wednesday to decide on bringing this forward to June 8.

As the main opposition Labour party said it would back it, the UK will likely have these snap elections. But Labour Majority is not likely, but if you think that anything but Conservative Majority can happen you have great odds at Fairlay.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will face in the runoff at French presidential election: Who will prevail?

The first round of voting in the French presidential election on Sunday saw centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen make it through to the second round runoff scheduled for May 7. Yesterday, Macron took 8.4m votes (23.75%), while Le Pen took 7.6m (21.53%) – the highest ever score for the Front National.

Still, Le Pen is not given plenty of chances to become the next French President as this morning opinion polls have Macron beating her in the second round by 61% to 39%. At the same time, Fairlay market gives Macron a 87% chance.



Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-5/.

While Le Pen has no natural alliances with other parties, so she only issued a call for all patriots to join her, Francois Fillon, who came third, had said he would vote for Emmanuel Macron. The socialist candidate, Benoit Hamon, did the same, closely followed by the prime minister, the socialist Bernard Cazeneuve. So, it looks like Macron is in for the win.

But can Le Pen, who wants to leave the euro, return to the franc, exit the Schengen agreement and close French borders, once again defeated polls like Trump and Brexit did? If you have that opinion, use the great odds at Fairlay.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Bitfinex Hack is almost a distant memory, but could another Bitcoin Exchange mess up before 2018?

For those who had no funds there, Bitfinex Hack that happened at the start of August last year is almost a distant memory. But for those who had funds there, fear of another exchange hack and funds loss will always be on their minds.

Just to remember that Bitfinex was shut down last August after 119,756 bitcoins, worth more than $65 million based on exchange rates at the time, were stolen from users' accounts. A lot was solved later on, but could another hack happen?



Bitcoin exchange to mess up before 2018
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-exchange-to-mess-up-before-2018/.

In fact, it did as South Korean bitcoin exchange Yapizon was hacked a month ago, losing more than $5 million worth of user funds as approximately 37% of user funds were hacked and exactly 3,816 bitcoins were stolen from the exchange.

Yapizon is not among the exchanges with the high trading volume, but could some of those biggest players lose at least 200 BTC during this year? Or, could some of them even go bankrupt? Well, predict this at the newest Fairlay market.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

The #Flippening: Will Ethereum overtake market capitalization of Bitcoin before August?

There’s been so many Bitcoin’s governance problems recently, that the Flippening is not anymore some distant paradigm shift but the thing that could happen in the following months if the total USD market capitalization of Ethereum overtakes market capitalization of Bitcoin. But, is it possible for the Flippening to happen before August?

With this, for the first time since 2009, when Bitcoin was unleashed on the world, its dominance of the cryptocurrency market has been challenged. And that challenge is huge as Ethereum's Ether token has increased 3,000% this year with no signs of slowing. At the same time, Ether's market cap has been drawing steadily close to Bitcoin's market cap.



Will the Flippening happen before August 1?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-the-flippening-happen-before-august-1/.

So, at the moment two cryptocurrencies worth $34bn (ETH) and $42bn (BTC) but that could easily change with the ongoing scaling dilemma among developers and entrepreneurs building on Bitcoin, while at the same time Ethereum has a strong network effect and ability to negate the similar governance issues. Indeed, Ethereum looks strong now.

All in all, it looks like that at the moment it is only a matter of time when will ETH surpass BTC in the market cap, and then follow by attacking Bitcoin’s price. Newest Fairlay market gives August 1 as a date before which the Flippening could happen, hoping that Bitcoin community could stop it with the SegWit2x proposal that Fairlay also supports.