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Author Topic: The State of the ASIC Market  (Read 4167 times)
BitSyncom
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January 18, 2013, 07:26:52 PM
 #1

I've finally got a chance to read the forum in detail after leaving for awhile, now ( around 3am), before having to catch a flight around 7am in the morning. I must say the FUD surrounding the current state of ASICs is unbelievable.

I think the next official update is us shipping out a device. needless to say, we are at the end and is pretty busy at the moment, soon major team members are actually going to stay and live in the factory housing for a few days to make sure everything works out smoothly.

I do not think we will be providing any power consumption/hashrate prior to shipping the units because we will be tweaking the numbers until we feel it's ready. Soon as we ship everything will become clear.

I've began to question the literacy of the people in this forum. I left a clear message in the Avalon thread. I quote, "team members are going to stay and live in the factories to make sure everything work out smoothly". I, ngzhang and others then left to commit to work whilst giving everyone a clear countdown timer to the exact scheduled shipping date. What do I see in the Avalon thread when I come back? FUD.

In addition, I've also stated "we will not be providing any information until we ship" simply because we feel the strongest argument is an demonstration by a third-party customer, it doesn't even take the intelligence of a three year old to question the legitimacy of any pictures we provide; real or not, (maybe the same reason BFL_Josh said why he couldn't take any photos to the packaging facility he visited this month) and frankly speaking, I do not have any time to play babysitter like Inaba from BFL coaxing the community telling them "next week(s)" or by downplaying the direness of their situation in December and then proceed to have the audacity to announce a month later in January the fact that they switched from QFN packaging to BGA. It is important to know that is not possible to switch packaging after you have tape-out the chip.

Maybe Inaba; you were being left in the dark about all this. Since often you are waiting for a third-party to provide you "fuzzy" dates, from a foundry no less; any respectable foundry will give you an projection date and a expected date with difference not greater than a few days, because making ASCIs are pretty much an exact science. Just like the fact you didn't know the die photo you posted was blacken-out rather than it being "dense", it is not like it takes a genius to figure out BFL's 16 hashcore pipeline design. I wish you the best of luck Josh, for that moment when another third-party tells you another "fuzzy" date or an actual delay: You will be taking the blame, despite of being a good secretary and is in fact not guilty.



Anyways, the real question I wish to raise to the community is the following
Quote
What constitute the difference between a delay and fraud. When does a delay or the failure to meet expectations cross the line into a scam?

Delays are a common occurrence in start-ups. As frequent backer on Kickstarter and a project manager I experience delays first hand. When does a delay become an fraudulent event however is not defined clearly in an especially time sensitives market such as ASIC mining equipment? Is it one month? two, three, or even four month? what type of delay hold their merit? Chinese New Year, Custom Import problems, Chip testing and configuration, assembly time; All these are real and possible problems one may face in electronics manufacturing. Where do we draw the line? When is "few weeks later" not good enough?

Let's then look at performance. Where is the line there? History has shown BFL was not labeled as fraud when they failed to reach their advertised FPGA of 1000Mh/s & 20W release, but instead a 830Mh/s & 80w. Does this mean Avalon can release a product with 50Gh/s and not be a scam? Does it mean BFL can continue this trend and continue to release products with higher power consumption than advertised?

What does the community think?

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January 18, 2013, 07:43:36 PM
 #2

I think you should spend more time getting your Avalon devices ready so I can place an order for the second batch.
debianlinux
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January 18, 2013, 07:52:27 PM
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All the words on the screen mean nothing, really. Products in hands will speak for themselves. Once we have real world products providing real world stats then we can address whether what was provided was adequate relative to what was verbally sold.

If you ship devices that work as advertised then all of the current noise is just that, noise... including the OP.
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January 18, 2013, 07:54:54 PM
 #4

Does this mean Avalon can release a product with 50Gh/s and not be a scam? Does it mean BFL can continue this trend and continue to release products with higher power consumption than advertised?

What does the community think?

omg! avalon is going to release at 50GH/s with way higher power consumption than 400w?Huh  Roll Eyes



I think all of the waiting causes people to be relieved that they got something. After waiting months and months wondering if you will ever see your money again, people will tend to accept missed targets.

Sad, but that's how it goes.
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January 18, 2013, 08:00:45 PM
 #5

First +1, the community has been a terrific asshole to all the ASIC developers and it's a shame. Large companies worth billions of dollars frequently have delays that go months upon months and they aren't subject to the vitrol that comes up here. Disgusting.

Perhaps BFL is sticking it's head out, but i feel genuinely sorry for the situation Tom is in. ASICS might not be rocket-science but they are one hell of a complicated level of engineering and I think all the companies from as far I can tell really have taken on an enormous task.

Avalon has done the right thing- stay out and above it. Ship when you're ready. The community for the most part is unfortunately ungrateful and unkind and it's hard to have sympathy even when people are legitimately scammed.

Keep up the hard work, I'm not a purchaser of any ASIC at this point, but I welcome it's arrival.

more or less retired.
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January 18, 2013, 08:14:18 PM
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One question, in this case it is not going to release the design of miner in open source as happened with previous versions of ngzhang?
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January 18, 2013, 08:31:53 PM
 #7

First +1, the community has been a terrific asshole to all the ASIC developers and it's a shame. Large companies worth billions of dollars frequently have delays that go months upon months and they aren't subject to the vitrol that comes up here. Disgusting.

Perhaps BFL is sticking it's head out, but i feel genuinely sorry for the situation Tom is in. ASICS might not be rocket-science but they are one hell of a complicated level of engineering and I think all the companies from as far I can tell really have taken on an enormous task.

Avalon has done the right thing- stay out and above it. Ship when you're ready. The community for the most part is unfortunately ungrateful and unkind and it's hard to have sympathy even when people are legitimately scammed.

Keep up the hard work, I'm not a purchaser of any ASIC at this point, but I welcome it's arrival.

Nonsense. The community has been a terrific sucker to the ASIC manufacturers. Large companies worth billions of dollars do not take in money for delayed products, completely unrelated.

What's his face up there is trying to bring up the idea that there are reasonable production delays, and there are scammy BS nonsense excuses, and people need to be more discerning as to which is which.

The rest is a thinly veiled attack on BFL and the broader user base, and those affected can respond as they see fit. 

I personally would like to see less greed and blind belief in the bitcoin community, but that's my naïveté I guess.
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January 18, 2013, 09:17:07 PM
 #8

I personally would like to see less greed and blind belief in the bitcoin community,

I don't think anyone would be interested in bitcoin if they had no greed or belief.
meowmeowbrowncow
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January 18, 2013, 10:59:51 PM
 #9

...

 It is important to know that is not possible to switch packaging after you have tape-out the chip.
...


Would it then be correct to assume that either


1.  BFL had not taped out prior to Dec 12, or
2.  BFL was forced in to multiple tape-outs, costing big money


If only deciding in Dec 12 that a different package was to be used that a new tape-out and production cycle would require a minimum of three months to complete. 

My head is swimming in all of this BFL BS.  This would mean at any given time any timeline guidance provided by BFL was completely false.


Nice.

"Bitcoin has been an amazing ride, but the most fascinating part to me is the seemingly universal tendency of libertarians to immediately become authoritarians the very moment they are given any measure of power to silence the dissent of others."  - The Bible
Inaba
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January 18, 2013, 11:08:02 PM
 #10

Sorry Bitsyncom, but you are completely full of shit.  Completely.  You have repeatedly stated that it's "impossible" to do things, yet somehow BFL manages to do the "imposisble."  

Why do you continually prod me with a stick?  I have left you alone to go do your own thing with your ancient technology and your ridiculously immense power requirements, yet you want to keep antagonizing me.  Why is that?  

I really hope you have something to show on Monday, you have about 24 hours to produce, so we'll see then.  The fact of the matter is, though, no one is going to buy your 1990's tech after we ship, so enjoy the few weeks of glory you will have if you can manage to ship a working product that doesn't melt.

PS - Your last few sentences are interesting.  Are you having some issues with heat and have to throttle back a bit to fix the the issue? 



If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
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ASIC wannabe


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January 18, 2013, 11:28:39 PM
 #11

Sorry Bitsyncom, but you are completely full of shit.  Completely.  You have repeatedly stated that it's "impossible" to do things, yet somehow BFL manages to do the "imposisble."  

Why do you continually prod me with a stick?  I have left you alone to go do your own thing with your ancient technology and your ridiculously immense power requirements, yet you want to keep antagonizing me.  Why is that?  

I really hope you have something to show on Monday, you have about 24 hours to produce, so we'll see then.  The fact of the matter is, though, no one is going to buy your 1990's tech after we ship, so enjoy the few weeks of glory you will have if you can manage to ship a working product that doesn't melt.


if the imposisble is to announce numerous delays  and alienate others with cutting remarks such as 1990's tech, then yeah BFL has done quite a good job.


I dont have an order with any asic mfg. yet, but it looks like Avalon will be the first to market and the first choice customers. This far, they've shown the most definite shipping date, and even if they release a melting product on monday, it will still be leaps beyond the current state of Butterfly Labs' ASIC, which was supposed to be released In December.

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MeSarah
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January 19, 2013, 12:40:23 AM
 #12

omg! avalon is going to release at 50GH/s with way higher power consumption than 400w?Huh  Roll Eyes

Of course Kaerf. The Avalon development team did their due diligence by creating and testing a prototype and knew all along of the problems but didn't inform the community because of fears customers would cancel their orders. Instead, if memory servers me correctly, they told the community they have increased the hashing rate.

I guess that 10+ years of ASIC experience served them well (sarcasm). Either that or the lies are piling up and biting them where the good lord split them. Now you know why Avalon avoided clarifying their claims of 10+ years ASIC experience made on their website.

Tips to Avalon customers: Be sure to replace the batteries in your smoke detectors before falling asleep with a plugged in Avalon product.

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January 19, 2013, 01:27:53 AM
 #13

+1 post of ninja avoidance. You promised to show a working prototype by now. Show a working prototype or get back to work.

I'm just going to keep repeating "it's an Altera HardCopy" because I haven't the slightest clue what I'm talking about.
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January 19, 2013, 02:22:36 AM
 #14

Plesase show a working prototype by now!
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January 19, 2013, 02:26:53 AM
 #15

Wow.  First y'all clamor for pics, demos, and whatnot.  Then as soon as one post is made in response, we get:

I think you should spend more time getting your Avalon devices ready so I can place an order for the second batch.

All the words on the screen mean nothing, really. Products in hands will speak for themselves.


Y'all really are superior trolls.

Tell you what.  I'll post some pics of mine next week and show it mining on eligius.

http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/userstats.php/1P69J7PU2w9DhRJnWDVxQVY8kKzt69QdoS

That's my GPU rig right now.  Soon I expect the graph to look very different.

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January 19, 2013, 03:09:47 AM
 #16

I personally would like to see less greed and blind belief in the bitcoin community,

I don't think anyone would be interested in bitcoin if they had no greed or belief.

I never said no greed and/or belief, I said less. Clearly we need some, but pirate, ponzis, failed exchanges, glbse, numerous individual scams and at least one failed asic group point to the fact that the community needs to wise up quite a lot. Greed is/was necessary for the initiation of bitcoin, but how will it survive if all it is ever known for is scamming/stealing/drugs/gambling? If bitcoin were a town, I'd avoid it like the plague.
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January 19, 2013, 04:49:52 AM
 #17

Question:

If Avalon sold you a product claiming it produced a hash rate of 60GH for $1300 and only delivered 50GH would you expect a proportional amount refunded? For example, if the delivered Avalon product only produced 30GH and you paid $1300 would you still be happy with your purchase price or would you demand a 50% refund?

What if the power requirements increased 50%? Under that circumstance would it be acceptable to you if Avalon offered no refund?

How far does Avalon have to miss their stated performance before you request a full refund?

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January 19, 2013, 06:19:32 AM
 #18

I would have thought any asic company would be thrilled to show off a working demo unit mining away. Absolutely thrilled to share in their hard work and amaze everyone. But i guess i live in bizarro world. Go figure. Marketing and common sense treatment of customers and future customers is harder then being an engineer. Two diff types of people i guess.

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January 19, 2013, 06:26:05 AM
 #19

I would have thought any asic company would be thrilled to show off a working demo unit mining away. Absolutely thrilled to share in their hard work and amaze everyone. But i guess i live in bizarro world. Go figure. Marketing and common sense treatment of customers and future customers is harder then being an engineer. Two diff types of people i guess.

Pure speculation at this point however consider the following say they demo the working unit. Then the next day a group rob the facility.

Perhaps it is as much a security step as it is a project policy that they stick with their time schedule.
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January 19, 2013, 07:55:19 AM
 #20

If bitcoin were a town, I'd avoid it like the plague.

Now that's a .sig worthy quote.. lol

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