Concerned about the recent BTC price rise.

[newtenberg]

The halving of the mining reward is the main cause of this rally.

I called that 3 months ago

also

WE HIT $20 per BTC Mother-Falkners!

<occam's razor mode>
The price has climbed from 7 to 21 just in the middle of the halving. The evidence is irrefutable.
</occam's razor mode>

My hypothesis is that this rally is explained by:

• 30% -> new people discovering Bitcoin.
• 20% -> the halving itself.
• 50% -> the psychological effect of the halving (over the whole community, not only over miners). Nobody wants to sell their coins.

[1715164697]

1715164697

[firefop]

This is going exactly as most miner thought it would go.

The rise form 10 to 20 is simply a result of the block reward havling. Anything beyond that is actually growth of the bitcoin economy.

The simple fact is - miners have bills to pay - ever one of us that's still mining saw a 50% reduction in income when the block reward halved. Most of us held on and sold off bitcoin reserves to make ends meet. We've been playing chicken against other miner's bitcoin savings. The price adjusting now indicates some combination of two things:

1. some miners have decided they aren't making enough profit and have shut down (most likely gpu miners).

2. the bitcoin savings of the remaining miners are either tapped out or they've made other adjustments to reduce operating costs and have stopped selling saved bitcoins.

The basic support level hasn't increased much, but the supply has been cut in half. It's driven the price up accordingly -The next thing we'll see is continued slow rise followed by fast (but relative small) corrects repeated until asic release. Once that happens we'll see some wobbling and then have some steep crashes... but after the initial profit taking from that new equipment and difficulty adjustements, we'll see a relatively fast and steady rebound since those miners won't need (or want) to sell at the crashed rate. 

At that point we'll see some price stability that follows the rate of growth.

[johnyj]

BTC is scarce, the supply is constantly decrease, if someone sold a huge amount of BTC, he will very likely to buy it back at a much higher price level, and it is not a guarantee he can get that same amount of BTC without pushing price much higher, so basically it is difficult for investors to act on the short side

Other things like gold/oil/house, the supply can always increase with added production capacity, so the price development is much more uncertain

[painlord2k]

No hedge fund can break bitcoin if there are enough early adopters that are willing to stand up to them.

This is very shortsighted thinking.  Central banks print at a rate of 2-3% per year.  After a hundred years, they can break anything.  They can break the entire economy.

You won't even notice until it's too late.

No, if you care for Bitcoin, you should learn to play the long game as well as they do.

Central Banks print 2-3% at year?
Where was you living in the last five years? Or ten years?

€ base went from 400 billions (2002) to 1200 billion (2012)
$ base followed the same trajectory in the same period of time.

2-3% at months is more realistic, in these days.

[painlord2k]

I would suggest this podcast from Goldmoney
ROBERT BLUMEN DEBUNKS GOLD SUPPLY & DEMAND MISCONCEPTIONS
http://www.goldmoney.com/podcast/robert-blumen-debunks-gold-supply-demand-misconceptions.html

The concept of Demand to Hold is important to understand the dynamics of the price of gold and bitcoin.

If the Demand to Hold change (people start thinking bitcoin value is 25$ instead of 15$ and are unwilling to sell for less than 25$), the price will follow whatever be the supply and the request.
Mining is a part so small over the total of the supply available (of gold and bitcoin) that if someone want buy must exchange something with someone that bough them, not from someone that produced them.
If gold mined in a year is 2% of the total gold supply available, the price will be determined by the Demand to Hold of the people holding gold and the Demand of people wanting exchange other stuff for gold, not from the quantity sold by the miners.

[n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU]

I would suggest this podcast from Goldmoney
ROBERT BLUMEN DEBUNKS GOLD SUPPLY & DEMAND MISCONCEPTIONS
http://www.goldmoney.com/podcast/robert-blumen-debunks-gold-supply-demand-misconceptions.html

The concept of Demand to Hold is important to understand the dynamics of the price of gold and bitcoin.

If the Demand to Hold change (people start thinking bitcoin value is 25$ instead of 15$ and are unwilling to sell for less than 25$), the price will follow whatever be the supply and the request.
Mining is a part so small over the total of the supply available (of gold and bitcoin) that if someone want buy must exchange something with someone that bough them, not from someone that produced them.
If gold mined in a year is 2% of the total gold supply available, the price will be determined by the Demand to Hold of the people holding gold and the Demand of people wanting exchange other stuff for gold, not from the quantity sold by the miners.

Exactly!

[notig]

I would suggest this podcast from Goldmoney
ROBERT BLUMEN DEBUNKS GOLD SUPPLY & DEMAND MISCONCEPTIONS
http://www.goldmoney.com/podcast/robert-blumen-debunks-gold-supply-demand-misconceptions.html

The concept of Demand to Hold is important to understand the dynamics of the price of gold and bitcoin.

If the Demand to Hold change (people start thinking bitcoin value is 25$ instead of 15$ and are unwilling to sell for less than 25$), the price will follow whatever be the supply and the request.
Mining is a part so small over the total of the supply available (of gold and bitcoin) that if someone want buy must exchange something with someone that bough them, not from someone that produced them.
If gold mined in a year is 2% of the total gold supply available, the price will be determined by the Demand to Hold of the people holding gold and the Demand of people wanting exchange other stuff for gold, not from the quantity sold by the miners.

I think this is saying two conflicting things. One the one hand it is saying the price of bitcoins is a result of what people think they are worth. On the other hand it is saying that since the supply from mining is a certain percent it can't affect the price significantly. But what if the increase difficulty in mining causes a change in what people think a bitcoin is mentally worth since it's now twice as "hard" to mine? mathematically it shouldn't affect the price much but much of the price is mental. If everyone that had bitcoins suddenly felt they were worth a thousand dollars each and wouldn't sell for less........ that is how much they would be.

[notme]

I would suggest this podcast from Goldmoney
ROBERT BLUMEN DEBUNKS GOLD SUPPLY & DEMAND MISCONCEPTIONS
http://www.goldmoney.com/podcast/robert-blumen-debunks-gold-supply-demand-misconceptions.html

The concept of Demand to Hold is important to understand the dynamics of the price of gold and bitcoin.

If the Demand to Hold change (people start thinking bitcoin value is 25$ instead of 15$ and are unwilling to sell for less than 25$), the price will follow whatever be the supply and the request.
Mining is a part so small over the total of the supply available (of gold and bitcoin) that if someone want buy must exchange something with someone that bough them, not from someone that produced them.
If gold mined in a year is 2% of the total gold supply available, the price will be determined by the Demand to Hold of the people holding gold and the Demand of people wanting exchange other stuff for gold, not from the quantity sold by the miners.

I think this is saying two conflicting things. One the one hand it is saying the price of bitcoins is a result of what people think they are worth. On the other hand it is saying that since the supply from mining is a certain percent it can't affect the price significantly. But what if the increase difficulty in mining causes a change in what people think a bitcoin is mentally worth since it's now twice as "hard" to mine? mathematically it shouldn't affect the price much but much of the price is mental. If everyone that had bitcoins suddenly felt they were worth a thousand dollars each and wouldn't sell for less........ that is how much they would be.

I don't see how those statements conflict.  Sure, the miners' mental valuation will change with difficulty, but since we are not the majority of supply, we can not control price, only have a very small influence.  Most non miners don't pay attention to difficulty, even though it is one of the primary factors indicating health of the network.

[notig]

I would disagree but only because it seems that the large fluctuations in price of bitcoin are not from millions upon millions of transactions from many people... but more larger transactions among less people. And I would bet that those who are dealing with such volumes and trades have a knowledge of mining even if they don't mine themselves.  Saying that the increased difficulty in mining doesn't have an effect on the price because the supply is only a few percent of the market... is almost like saying that if mining were stopped tomorrow and all the coins that were created were...... and no more... then the price wouldn't more than double simply because only about half of the coins which can be generated already are so doubling would make it about the right price from a sheer supply standpoint. I bet that would be wrong. And I apologize for the run-on sentences.

[tjohej]

Is it me or is bitcoincharts suffering downtimes? That's where I check regularly, to see if there will be some BTC stability so I can get involved again...I found someone worthwhile to donate to! 

I don't know if you'll agree but this is somehow how new religions are started. Keyword: Hope!

Please Dear Holy Bitcoin, give us stability so that I can continue using this wonderful currency based on Proof of Work and Public key cryptography!
[bows to the ground and makes some personal ritual]

Religions start with hope, but maybe also depression. The good thing though could be if BTC stays at a higher price in a stable way, but it really must be worth it, otherwise we've lost precious time!

[solex]

I would suggest this podcast from Goldmoney
ROBERT BLUMEN DEBUNKS GOLD SUPPLY & DEMAND MISCONCEPTIONS
http://www.goldmoney.com/podcast/robert-blumen-debunks-gold-supply-demand-misconceptions.html

The concept of Demand to Hold is important to understand the dynamics of the price of gold and bitcoin.

If the Demand to Hold change (people start thinking bitcoin value is 25$ instead of 15$ and are unwilling to sell for less than 25$), the price will follow whatever be the supply and the request.
Mining is a part so small over the total of the supply available (of gold and bitcoin) that if someone want buy must exchange something with someone that bough them, not from someone that produced them.
If gold mined in a year is 2% of the total gold supply available, the price will be determined by the Demand to Hold of the people holding gold and the Demand of people wanting exchange other stuff for gold, not from the quantity sold by the miners.

Exactly!

Exactly²

[TooCasual]

Observing the 2011 peak with .01% of the population interest. There is little to no correlation with the current rise in Bitcoins 2013 value. The current trend is due to a few major factors: block discovery at 25BTC, WordPress, France bank recognition and adoption, now 10x more public interest vs the .01% of 2011. Also, great exposure from BitPay at the 2013 CES. So even though it appears to mimic the 2011 growth. It is now a much more reinforced currency and not just excitable hype. I for see a very positive trend in BTC in the future. And will be very luctative to early adopters.

This form of world currency now has a decent foundation only to gain exceptional strength in the future. As the new ASIC’s become the norm. This will only bolster the strength of the network as a whole. The only issue to the casual consumer is the “safety” and ease of use with personal wallets etc. Albeit it is a fairly steep learning curve to the understanding to the currency itself.

It certainly isn’t the volatile crypto currency that it once was.

A few more major retailers acceptance will propel this currency almost exponentially. This world currency is now out of the “experimental phase”.

Any retailer adopting this form of currency will have reduced overhead in equipment fees and transaction fees (mc/visa/etc). Gaining this lost revenue is an added bonus. This is much more prevalent in world trade.

I think any investors and financial institutions will be impressed with the performance of Bitcoin in the future. Something to seriously bank on.

My 2 cents…

Ed (TooCasual)

[Luno]

While Bitcoin is fair and honest, it's price at any given moment might not be.

To few traders agreeing on where to take the price, smells like a bucket shop!

Time is up for a correction to $20 if we going to be sustainable over the weekend!

[TooCasual]

While Bitcoin is fair and honest, it's price at any given moment might not be.

To few traders agreeing on where to take the price, smells like a bucket shop!

Time is up for a correction to $20 if we going to be sustainable over the weekend!

You sound like you "need" to purchase more BTC...   and it's painfull as it rises higher and higher.

[molecular]

I'm as happy that my holdings are rising as the next guy, but I admit that I cannot see the cause of it.  This kind of advance is not unprecedented within the Bitcoin economy, but the last time we were in this kind of multiple week advance it turned out to be a hype induced bubble, not the result of fundamental increases in the size of the BTC economy.  Anyone know what I'm missing?

Let me point to a post of mine I made a while back (we were already in rally mode): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135622.msg1447544#msg1447544

I think we are generally overestimating the short-term effect of positive news (like wordpress, goldmoney, bitpay,...) and underestimating the long-term effects.

Sure, on good news traders with fiat at the exchanges will buy. But keep in mind these people are prone to take a profit even on a $0.15 rise, so the effect will be short-term and short-term only. No new fiat comes in through this mechanism so there wont be a lasting effect.

The long term effect of good news bringing in fresh blood on the other hand is too easily forgotten about by the time the news is old and we then ask ourselves: "why the $0.30 rise on no news?"

See for example the reasons I gave for justifying my intution of a rocket about to be ignited in this thread on Nov 5th last year: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=122454. We might still see the effects of this 2 month later. Think about it: it takes time to go from hearing about bitcoin to actually making a sizeable purchase: First the guy has to get his initial infos about bitcoin. He will then ponder the idea for a while and let the overwhelming info sink in (a week or two), then revisit bitcoin and get excited, take another week to make the decision to get in. Then it takes a week for him to actually get money to an exchange (yes, a majority of newbs will think mtgox is the way to buy bitcoins). Then he will wait for a dip or rally to actually get int (another week or so). Add this up and you have 1-2 months.

;tldr: the current rally is fueled in considerable part by newbs generated by 2 months old good news.

It's "old good news" that's generating newbies (both users and speculators), helped by the network effect.

Also: it's much easier nowadays to sell bitcoin to new people. Just yesterday I irc-chatted with some dudes that made twrp (http://teamw.in/project/twrp2, an android recovery system that support encrypted mounts) and it was easy to convince them to accept bitcoin donations. A year ago they would've told me to go away and stop spamming their channel with bitcoin propaganda. Now they were open, had heard about bitcoin already and asked newbie questions like what wallet to use.

Usage is also going up as a result:

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd
http://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users

On the other hand, there is a good chance we might see another -30% drop. I think a lot of coins are in the hands of speculators who see bitcoin merely as a vehicle for making fiat money. These dudes will panic-dump easily (also many bitcoin-lovers will panic-dump if the drop is harsh enough, hoping to increase their bitcoin stash). I'm having a hard time guesstimating numbers, but I think a 30% drop is quite possible. $12 will likely hold and recovery might be very swift.

Overall I'm not concerned.

[molecular]

This was meant to happen sooner or later,

haha. I actually loled. Yes, this price rise was pre-planned by the bitcoin gods and/or satoshi.

[Luno]

Sure, any post in a speculation thead is either wishfull thinking or lying, but 50 Cents increase every day  for the past week without correction is unusual, and too scary for me.

At some point, someone decides that suppoert is to weak, and risks dropping 50.000 BTC, if that is a safe entry point for me,  depends on a lot of things.

I dont mind buying back at $40 if it is after a dump from $60 that looks sustainable, in such a case, I'm almost guaranteed a bounce back to $55.

Well thats how I trade!

[molecular]

Sure, any post in a speculation thead is either wishfull thinking or lying, but 50 Cents increase every day  for the past week without correction is unusual, and too scary for me.

At some point, someone decides that suppoert is to weak, and risks dropping 50.000 BTC, if that is a safe entry point for me,  depends on a lot of things.

I dont mind buying back at $40 if it is after a dump from $60 that looks sustainable, in such a case, I'm almost guaranteed a bounce back to $55.

Well thats how I trade!

excuse my ignorance. but when do you sell?

[Luno]

Sure, any post in a speculation thead is either wishfull thinking or lying, but 50 Cents increase every day  for the past week without correction is unusual, and too scary for me.

At some point, someone decides that suppoert is to weak, and risks dropping 50.000 BTC, if that is a safe entry point for me,  depends on a lot of things.

I dont mind buying back at $40 if it is after a dump from $60 that looks sustainable, in such a case, I'm almost guaranteed a bounce back to $55.

Well thats how I trade!

excuse my ignorance. but when do you sell?

My stategy, some of you will probatatly think I'm the stupidest trader ever, is to buy in on dips and sell after a bounce back. In a falling market, it makes a lot of money. In a climbing market, like now, I',m only getting like 30% of profits compared to a guy who doesn't sell.

The point here ist to expose my self to as little risk as possible, the last year combined, I've only been long 15% of the time.

The reason is also that it is impossible to know when the market has peaked. The market low's are a lot easier to spot.

So in a climbing market I get less and less Bitcoin but more and more Dollars. When the market crashes, I get my 200-300% (with some luck).

[CurbsideProphet]

Just yesterday I irc-chatted with some dudes that made twrp (http://teamw.in/project/twrp2, an android recovery system that support encrypted mounts) and it was easy to convince them to accept bitcoin donations. A year ago they would've told me to go away and stop spamming their channel with bitcoin propaganda. Now they were open, had heard about bitcoin already and asked newbie questions like what wallet to use.

That's pretty cool, I didn't realize TWRP accepts bitcoin.  Good job.  Curious if you have talked to anyone else like Koush (Clockwork recovery), Cyanogen, AOKP, etc. etc.