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fimp (OP)
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January 23, 2013, 03:01:06 PM |
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1BTC
Nice try, but you forgot the trading fee... Whilst I was being facetious, I was kinda making the point that the original post doesn't actually specify that the trade be BTC/USD. Mtgox deals with other currencies too, right? Yeah, but it's specified on the form. |
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Remember that Bitcoin is still beta software. Don't put all of your money into BTC!
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starsoccer9
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1630
Merit: 1000
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January 23, 2013, 03:35:38 PM |
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18.5
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giszmo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1105
WalletScrutiny.com
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January 23, 2013, 03:45:01 PM |
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1BTC
Nice try, but you forgot the trading fee... Whilst I was being facetious, I was kinda making the point that the original post doesn't actually specify that the trade be BTC/USD. Mtgox deals with other currencies too, right? Yeah, but it's specified on the form. Right. That's where I decided, not to troll like Richy_T  |
| ɃɃWalletScrutiny.com | Is your wallet secure?(Methodology)
WalletScrutiny checks if wallet builds are reproducible, a precondition for code audits to be of value. | ɃɃ |
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minorman
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 945
Merit: 1003
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January 23, 2013, 03:56:47 PM |
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$14.95 /BTC
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cbeast
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1006
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
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January 23, 2013, 04:04:42 PM |
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17.67
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Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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jarsumarsu
Donator
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 134
Merit: 100
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January 23, 2013, 04:08:29 PM |
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23.23
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jtibble
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 52
Merit: 0
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January 23, 2013, 04:24:21 PM |
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16.75
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dirtycat
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January 23, 2013, 04:28:15 PM |
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$9.76 a coin.
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poop!
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axus
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January 23, 2013, 04:31:29 PM
Last edit: January 23, 2013, 08:51:42 PM by axus |
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Hey, this is a nice, simple, well organized contest  My prediction is 16.06  (I had to change it, someone had already guesses 16.05) |
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Chief Satangkai
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 54
Merit: 0
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January 23, 2013, 05:40:37 PM |
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16.28
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hahahafr
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January 23, 2013, 06:22:28 PM |
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$18.14
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Richy_T
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2422
Merit: 2112
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
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January 23, 2013, 07:46:07 PM |
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1BTC
Nice try, but you forgot the trading fee... Whilst I was being facetious, I was kinda making the point that the original post doesn't actually specify that the trade be BTC/USD. Mtgox deals with other currencies too, right? Yeah, but it's specified on the form. Ah, bait & switch :p No doubt you'll put one of those evil cookies in our web browsers while we're there too. |
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
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axus
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January 23, 2013, 08:48:28 PM
Last edit: January 23, 2013, 09:04:37 PM by axus |
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$16.05
Oops. I have to change my guess. Hold on! It would be nice if the form rejected entries that have already been made |
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Elwar
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2384
Viva Ut Vivas
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January 23, 2013, 08:51:56 PM |
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$31.5
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First seastead company actually selling sea homes: Ocean Builders https://ocean.builders Of course we accept bitcoin. |
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Blinken
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January 23, 2013, 10:10:42 PM |
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19.11
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Bitcoin ♦♦♦ Trust in Mathematics, Not Bankers ♦♦♦
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giszmo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1105
WalletScrutiny.com
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January 23, 2013, 10:28:27 PM |
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I don't like that changing the bet is not allowed but then again it somehow is when I managed to realize that my bet was taken already.
Bets can be made to arbitrary precision so the betting space is not going to be dense, although a 3-digit number is more likely to be a direct hit than a 7-digit number due to the fact that there are still trades done manually.
Betting where nobody has bet before makes winning more likely as the 3-digit values in the 18-ish area are bet on densely already, it's more likely to win with 22.3 than with 18.333 as either 18.33 or 18.34 would be 10 times more likely than any 18.3x
Sure, betting later yields higher chances of hitting the target so there should be an incentive to pick earlier, too. (Or not as apparently many people bet early. Well …)
If you just invested 10 Ƀ to see where the journey is going, you should provide this incentive more decoupled from above concerns. You want early data? Weight it higher. You want honest guesses? Don't punish people that are off by 1 Satoshi just because the correct guess was already taken. Make an even payout to all within +-5ct. or maybe weight that number with the days before the event that they gave their bet.
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| ɃɃWalletScrutiny.com | Is your wallet secure?(Methodology)
WalletScrutiny checks if wallet builds are reproducible, a precondition for code audits to be of value. | ɃɃ |
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entreprenr
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 9
Merit: 0
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January 23, 2013, 10:29:35 PM |
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19.4562
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FreeMoney
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1014
Strength in numbers
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January 24, 2013, 12:53:52 AM |
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I don't like that changing the bet is not allowed but then again it somehow is when I managed to realize that my bet was taken already.
Bets can be made to arbitrary precision so the betting space is not going to be dense, although a 3-digit number is more likely to be a direct hit than a 7-digit number due to the fact that there are still trades done manually.
Betting where nobody has bet before makes winning more likely as the 3-digit values in the 18-ish area are bet on densely already, it's more likely to win with 22.3 than with 18.333 as either 18.33 or 18.34 would be 10 times more likely than any 18.3x
Sure, betting later yields higher chances of hitting the target so there should be an incentive to pick earlier, too. (Or not as apparently many people bet early. Well …)
If you just invested 10 Ƀ to see where the journey is going, you should provide this incentive more decoupled from above concerns. You want early data? Weight it higher. You want honest guesses? Don't punish people that are off by 1 Satoshi just because the correct guess was already taken. Make an even payout to all within +-5ct. or maybe weight that number with the days before the event that they gave their bet.
It's actually an interesting game as is imo. There is some incentive to pick early since your guess will help keep people out of the range you think is most likely. |
Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone. |
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jibinkor
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
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January 24, 2013, 02:16:23 AM |
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$21.44
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constitution
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
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January 24, 2013, 02:51:17 AM |
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21.84$
Great Idea!
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