0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting]

[niagwai]

So I am risking 0.00128 BTC on Illinois State money line at 1.58 odds to beat Indiana state in college basketball. The game starts tonight in about an hour.

https://i.imgur.com/1fsI3mj.jpg

http://espn.go.com/ncb/game?gameId=400868334

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/1eca34cWmtuSWZ0SGVPeWxRYW1CZTNGdjc5UT09/r/595422

The main reason I took Illinois State is because they were able to win 9 of their last 12 regular season games, and even beat Wichita State who appear to be a good team. Their recent form is better than Indiana state. They are rated better defensively than Indiana State, which I believe will be the difference in the contest. Also Indiana state is ranked two spots lower than Illinois State in the conference standings, so they have performed slightly worse this season. Indiana has won only 46% of their games so they do not have a winning record.

* Well that was a huge fail! I will have to think about what went wrong. For starters I did not spend enough time making a decision. I was not patient enough, not selective enough, and did not research enough I suppose. It was surprising how badly Illinois played, and I wonder if there was anything that would have indicated that before the game started. I guess I have learned that Illinois State college basketball is a fairly inconsistent team. Maybe going forward I will focus on teams who are extremely consistent. While I am disappointed, I'm not going to give up, and I'm going to restart the challenge from 0.001 BTC. Currently my overall profit sits at -0.001 BTC.

[RussianRaibow]

Can I turn 0.001 BTC into 1 BTC by betting on sports? It is a simple question I am looking to answer by running a fun experiment. More specifically: is it possible to consistently win at sports betting? At the time of this post 0.001 BTC is only $0.42 and it will not hurt at all to lose this amount. Whether I fail or succeed doesn't matter, it's about the knowledge gained in the process. I will try to update my progress weekly. If you are interested in attempting this challenge join me on this journey! Who can't afford to lose 0.001 BTC?

Didn't we have someone trying similar thing recently, and of course failing I wish you good luck though, what sports will you be betting on? I hope not soccer, way too unpredictable.

I saw someone else trying to go from 0.01 to 1 and failing, and OP is going further, from 0.001 to 1.  That's quite the distance to go.  You are right 0.001 isn't much to lose if you do, but I think it's very unlikely that you will make it to 1.  However, I wish you luck OP.  I'll be following this thread to see how you do.

It was me that said going to 0.01 to 1 but haven't tried yet, so how can you say that I failed ,if you are referring to me ? I still haven't because all my attention is to my premium tips threads which is going extremely well so far.

It must not have been you then.  The person I'm thinking of failed more than once in their challenge to go from 0.01 to 1BTC.  They were going to keep trying until they made it, but were just starting over from 0.01 when they lost all their bet.

[7Priest7]

yes it is possible,  you can try to bet on basketball, nba, because a lot of games each week, and there are a lot of predictions allready, even if odds are very good try bet on them, because you won't loose your money, good luck on geting your bitcoin

[Zaragota95]

So I am risking 0.00128 BTC on Illinois State money line at 1.58 odds to beat Indiana state in college basketball. The game starts tonight in about an hour.



http://espn.go.com/ncb/game?gameId=400868334

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/1eca34cWmtuSWZ0SGVPeWxRYW1CZTNGdjc5UT09/r/595422

The main reason I took Illinois State is because they were able to win 9 of their last 12 regular season games, and even beat Wichita State who appear to be a good team. Their recent form is better than Indiana state. They are rated better defensively than Indiana State, which I believe will be the difference in the contest. Also Indiana state is ranked two spots lower than Illinois State in the conference standings, so they have performed slightly worse this season. Indiana has won only 46% of their games so they do not have a winning record.

* Well that was a huge fail! I will have to think about what went wrong. For starters I did not spend enough time making a decision. I was not patient enough, not selective enough, and did not research enough I suppose. It was surprising how badly Illinois played, and I wonder if there was anything that would have indicated that before the game started. I guess I have learned that Illinois State college basketball is a fairly inconsistent team. Maybe going forward I will focus on teams who are extremely consistent. While I am disappointed, I'm not going to give up, and I'm going to restart the challenge from 0.001 BTC. Currently my overall profit sits at -0.001 BTC.

So you failed on your first step?    Well you can learn from your own mistakes if nothing else.

But you're being overly analytical here, if betting was all about analytics everyone would be winning all the time.

Not that being un-analytical is good....

[Farma]

you're so great if you really can do it, because nominal bitcoin 0.001 was very far from 1 bitcoin, I can only watch you alone, so good luck 

[leex1528]

Most of the reasons you listed have little to do with what determines a sporting outcome.  As a matter of fact most of the ones you listed usually result in the exact opposite happening.

I'm sorry, I am confused at what you are trying to say here. Can you give an example? What do you personally think determines the outcome of a sporting event, and what should be investigated? Have you had success betting on sports?

I will give some examples of my thinking:

- A team at the top of the standings should on average win more than lose against a team at the bottom of the standings.

- A team who is recently playing poorly (losing their last five games in a row) should on average lose more to a team who is on a roll (winning their last 10 games in a row).

- A team who is 12-0 head to head against another team is likely to win again in their next meeting.

- A team who has never lost by more than a 15 point margin this year is getting 22 points on the spread. They are more likely to cover the spread than not.
 
- A team who is 24-2 at home is likely to win their next home game.

- A team who is replacing multiple impact players with lesser players due to injuries or other circumstances is going to be weaker than they are normally, and are vulnerable.

- A team is playing a match in which where they must overcome a deficit like an aggregate score, and will alter their playing style to aggressively take more risk. Say it's the soccer world cup, and a team needs to overcome a 2 goal lead to qualify. It is likely for there to be more goal scoring chances.

- A team has a coach who has patterns where he does certain things in certain situations. For example in a college basketball game where a coach has designed a certain style of play where he slows down the game, creating considerably less possessions and points, games may become closer and lower scoring.

- A team who has more finances/resources to spend will likely win more over time than a team who has less to spend.

I would try reading a few books on this, lots of great authors out there

Any books on sports betting that you would suggest reading?

My first bet today I risked 0.001 BTC on the Worcester Wolves ml at 1.28 odds in the  British Basketball League team. They were 8 point favorites, 7 places in the standings above their opponent Leeds Force, and top 2 in the standings for the BBL, so it seemed more likely they would win over a team who has performed worse over the current season.





http://www.betexplorer.com/basketball/united-kingdom/bbl/matchdetails.php?matchid=rPFDil9b

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/b0cfb5bQ21ESzFJbEszVXZMWVB3SzF1b0Q2dz09/r/595422/

Read scorecasting  (https://books.google.com/books/about/Scorecasting.html?id=0lSi_eCQvNwC&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false)

Your statements sort of contradict each other.  You say, a team that is at the top of the standings should win more than a team at the bottom.  Then you say a team that has a winning streak should beat a team with a losing streak, what if the team at the top of the standings is on a losing streak where a team at the bottom of the standings is on a winning streak?  Most of the streaks you are referring to are wrong, most of the time you have to look over the long course of the season, career, etc.  Give that book a look at its a great read and really makes you think of other things out there

[niagwai]

Thanks leex! I just ordered that scorecasting book on amazon, looks great. I also with it ordered this book Trading Bases: How a Wall Street Trader Made a Fortune Betting on Baseball by Joe Peta. Since baseball season is coming up, maybe it will be insightful!

I am having another go today, starting with 0.001. This is my second attempt at the challenge, and currently my profit is (-0.001 btc). My first bet is a Soccer under 2.5 @1.5 odds in the Greek league:

https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/43c0c0eUWUyT3B3NnRGWnpPdXgvcHJIRVlwUT09/r/595422/

Looking at their results there are not many goals scored between the AEK Athens and Asteras Tripolis: http://www.flashscore.com/match/06PEJHr1/#h2h;overall

They've had many draws and low scoring matches, so I figure why won't there be another low scoring match today. It starts in about 10 minutes from now.

[dipkiss]

Try to make 0.10 btc with just 0.001 btc bankroll..making 1btc is quit impossible and you need to place thousands of bets.

[niagwai]

Your statements sort of contradict each other.  You say, a team that is at the top of the standings should win more than a team at the bottom.  Then you say a team that has a winning streak should beat a team with a losing streak, what if the team at the top of the standings is on a losing streak where a team at the bottom of the standings is on a winning streak?

Your example is a great situation of when you have to be careful, but I think this is being far too literal with what I'm saying. I do not think it is black and white. I do not think 100% of the time you should bet on the team with the better record, or bet only on the team with the better winning streak. These are just elements that can add to a greater understanding of a match up. It's about predicting/taking an educated guess at the outcome of a match with all the available info. I would never suggest following some list of stone carved betting commandments like a Neanderthal!
https://i.imgur.com/KJnHiCb.jpg?1

I will try to answer your question:

If a team is at the top of the standings then they have been performing better over the course of the current season than a team at the bottom of the standings.

If a team is on a significant recent current winning streak then they been performing better than a team who is on a significant recent current losing streak.

Your question is more about what to value more: performance over the course of a season, or current performance. This is where you need to dig deeper, research, and make assumptions about what is affecting a team's performance over time. Are there current lineup changes due to injury, trades, coaching decisions, or something else? Where are they playing the matches--does the environment have an effect? You can find information that appears to explain a team's current performance, and make assumptions that this information will impact the team's future performance.

[Psi]

 Its easy to over analyze things , as that's what sports gambling is about, taking the info and making a decision , usually you can talk yourself into or out of a bet, lol, I usually pick underdogs as they pay better  and  sometimes the guys making odds leave some room to create action, things like nfl early week bets can pay a lot better. Yesterday for example took tfc to beat ny, in soccer, they won at like 3-1, then went to bet on Toronto raptors, the odds-$ $ got me to take Houston +7 at 2.75, they won outright anway, just saying how things can go, good luck !

[Odien]

I wish you good luck. If you manage to bet on low-risk bets, you are safe. What I recommend you is to bet what you have in safe bets (like the FC Barcelone) and then use only your profits to bet back.

[niagwai]

Starts in 6 minutes, Estoril 1 win in last 8 away matches, Rio ave 0 losses in last 5 home matches, taking Rio DNB @1.44:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/fba46c7V2xYQkpvSjJoMnZYekwwbkFEa0cyQT09/r/595422/

http://us.soccerway.com/matches/2016/03/07/portugal/portuguese-liga-/rio-ave-fc/gd-estoril-praia/2068547/

*
Rio 1-3 Estoril: surprising result as Rio's defense was extremely poor. Back to the drawing board...
Profit is (-0.002 BTC)

[niagwai]

Vekic holds a 1-0 H2H against Mestach, which was a 2-0 victory.  Mestach has lost her last three matches in a row. Their last meeting was also on the same surface type (hard court).
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1414848

(Argentina premier league split into two conference zones): Tigre are second worst team in ARG Premier Zona1, and Tucuman are the third best team in ARG Premier Zona2, so Tucuman's quality should be much better than Tigre. They rarely play each other, playing only 3 times, and have not met in 6 years, but the results of Tucuman show they have achieved much more this season, and I look for them to outperform a lesser team.
http://us.soccerway.com/matches/2016/03/07/argentina/primera-division/club-atletico-tigre/club-atletico-tucuman/2182975

I am risking 0.001 on these two results combined @3.324 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/525e566OGdkRlZpYndUbHNYVmFBOVpOaXpUUT09/r/595422/

*
Tucuman already down 0-4 Tigre. I am not doing very well so far in this challenge.

Profit is (-0.003 BTC)

[niagwai]

NHL: Philadelphia flyers have lost 14 of 18 against Tampa Bay since 2010-11 season.  The odds on this match though are nearly even, despite Tampa bay being on a roll winning its last 9 games in a row. Flyers are at home, and are coming off a 6-0 win. It seems the odds are too good to be true on Tampa, so risking 0.001 on Philadelphia @2.07 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ea9b306YXpHeGU4eFBoNjRVd1NyMmhQMSttQT09/r/595422/

http://www.flashscore.com/match/dYGfTU7r/#match-summary

[niagwai]

Yes MKR, I was just looking at simple stats, not having followed their progress through time. I am just trying to experiment with betting, and it is not working out yet. What I am learning so far is my imagined quality and consistency of the sides I have bet is not matching up with the reality of their performances. I am wrong in how I am evaluating the strength of teams, and need to change my thought process and attitude.

I'm also aware that in a short run of games anything random can happen... for example Tigre beating Tucuman 5-0 is quite a spectacular result today:http://canchallena.lanacion.com.ar/1877560-tigre-atletico-tucuman In the end I need to learn to be more calculated. My goal is to figure out how to form stronger, more accurate opinions, and question my thought process along the way.

BTW I love your suggestion to specialize in a league. Overextending yourself can be bad, yet at the same time I'm conflicted as I wouldn't want to limit betting opportunities. What does it take to really stay on top of a league? I need to figure out an answer to this question.

[niagwai]

NCAAB: BYU averages 83.6 points per game, and Gonzaga averages 79.3 points per game.

Yet their last two meetings they have held eachother much lower:
2/27/16 GON 71-68: line for total was 155.5, ended 139
1/14/16 BYU 69-68 GON: line for total was 162.5, ended 137

For today's game the total is at 150... still too high?

BYU plays an uptempo style with a lot of three point attempts. Gonzaga has good 3pt shot defense, better defense in general. Gonzaga has held 12 straight opponents under 70 points.

The game is a TV game on ESPN2 and is being played on a neutral court at Orleans Las Vegas. The total for the game opened at 151.5 and is down to 150. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of BYU's last 12 games when playing Gonzaga.

I'm predicting that since it is a big game on ESPN2, and in Vegas, it's assumed people are betting on the favorite Gonzaga -3 and the over 150.5 total. Their last two meetings this year were only decided by three points, could've gone either way, yet the total was off by over 15 points both times this year!

I'm assuming the total is inflated again, and am risking 0.002 BTC on the under 150.5 @1.98 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/0ebaa0cVkFQTDZKaXNSQlUzR3kzbVRWSmJEQT09/r/595422

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400870250

*
O/U line for first half was 71... and they scored 94 points in the first half. 94 points!
Projected total for the game is now 184! Again, I am very wrong.

The lines for the totals are so inaccurate; this is interesting at least. I need to learn how to calculate totals as an experiment and compare to the existing lines.

Also I found out Nitrogen Sports does not provide 2nd half totals on NCAA basketball games (also NBA). Why don't they? Is there a reason?

profit (-0.004 BTC)

[Mist]

NCAAB: BYU averages 83.6 points per game, and Gonzaga averages 79.3 points per game.

Yet their last two meetings they have held eachother much lower:
2/27/16 GON 71-68: line for total was 155.5, ended 139
1/14/16 BYU 69-68 GON: line for total was 162.5, ended 137

For today's game the total is at 150... still too high?

BYU plays an uptempo style with a lot of three point attempts. Gonzaga has good 3pt shot defense, better defense in general. Gonzaga has held 12 straight opponents under 70 points.

The game is a TV game on ESPN2 and is being played on a neutral court at Orleans Las Vegas. The total for the game opened at 151.5 and is down to 150. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of BYU's last 12 games when playing Gonzaga.

I'm predicting that since it is a big game on ESPN2, and in Vegas, it's assumed people are betting on the (rightful) favorite Gonzaga -3 and the over 150.5 total. Their last two meetings this year were only decided by three points, they were close contests, but again the total was off by over 15 points both times this year!

I am assuming this trend continues, and am risking 0.002 BTC on the under 150.5 @1.98 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/0ebaa0cVkFQTDZKaXNSQlUzR3kzbVRWSmJEQT09/r/595422/

As someone that follows a good bit of basketball, that's a solid bet. GL with that.

[niagwai]

Tennis live bet: Langer is 7-0 H2H against Krawietz, and today prematch Langer ml was ~1.4 odds.
He just lost the first set to Krawietz, but considering he has not lost to Krawietz in 7 matches I like his chances with the odds @2.65.
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1415010

Risking 0.0015 BTC on Nils Langer ml @2.65 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/84c7fc9VXpTODlNdTg2VjhlTFpSQ0ZPTjZudz09/r/595422/

*
Langer did not care very much in the second set, and didn't appear to give an honest effort. I guess there was somewhere else he wanted to be instead of this small Chinese tournament.

At this rate I will get to 1 negative BTC in no time. Don't go chasing waterfalls...

Profit (-0.0055 BTC)

**
After further investigation this was the first match Langer had played in over 21 days. In his last match he retired down 4-2 in the first set. This should have been a gigantic warning sign! He retired in his last match, and couldn't make it out of the first set. There is no explanation of his reason for retiring. Wait, it gets better...

Langer's last match:
13.02.2016, Wroclaw challenger, 1st Round qualifying, Langer- 4-2 first set, retired
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1407187
After this match he played the challenger match in China (Zhuhai) that I bet on and lost in the first round.

Go back one year:
14.02.2015, Wroclaw challenger, 1st Round qualifying, Langer retired
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1282831
After this he played two challenger matches in China (Guangzhou, Shenzhen) and lost both in the first round.

Weird how similar the results are, and I'm not entirely sure what they mean. It is super interesting to think about player motivation. Maybe there are times of the year, areas of the world, or certain tournaments where a player is more likely to retire, tank, lose on purpose for various reasons. If a player retired in their last match be wary of betting on them. Are they healthy, are they motivated, how can you even know?

[LarryHocks]

You must be really careful. Losing is much easier than win so that is not good. You must play with small amounts.
That is the only good option. And I hope that more people will also realize that they lose more money than they win money in gambling.

[OneHash]

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