WARNING: crypto-currencies are very likely going to experience a crash soon

[Ayers]

[...]for the time being we have at least another 1-2 months of profit

In the case of Ethereum (not saying you bought it), that isn't 'profit' but rather a zero-sum game of stealing from our fellow speculators with the insiders taking the lion's share of the cash off the table all during the pump.

When the music stops playing, there is going to be 1 chair for a 1000 speculators to fight over. The other 999 chairs left the building and are in the whale's BTC accounts.

i was taslking about 1-2 months of profit for miners, it is more profitable than mining bitcoin directly, and it will continue to be profitable for the moment
i don't care about trading, i don't like to buy shitcoin, no matter what they offer, the only coin for me is bitcoin

[TPTB_need_war]

well its's halving year, Bitcoin needs a strong support or face a supply-side consolidation. It all depends on the way Ethereum bursts. Slowly over time, or abruptly.

Markets normally do what majority NOT expect, its already priced in.

It seems to me the halving is bullish because less coins being dumped on the market by miners.

I think it is the scalecolypse (realization that Bitcoin is owned by the Chinese mining cartel and nothing can be done about it) combined with general contagion liquidations that may hit Bitcoin. The majority doesn't know the truth about these yet and/or still in delusion about there being some solution on the horizon. You go ask how many people realize that Chinese have already 51% attacked Bitcoin.

[r0ach]

I don't think most people reading this understand the thread and are just babbling about some random altcoin.  He's claiming the liquidity crisis created by deflationary collapse will lower the price of cryptocurrency.  This is the Harry Dent viewpoint on gold.  He views gold as a commodity and says the price will go down, but the price of gold is currently not going down, it's going up.  

The market is pricing gold as a currency over commodity at the moment.  Bitcoin is even more of a currency than commodity in comparison to gold, so in a liquidity crisis, as long as Bitcoin is still easily spendable, there's really no reason for it to go down, it could just as easily skyrocket as people pile into it to get out of electronic based fiat that will instantly disappear (versus paper based fiat that's harder to instantly vaporize in a collapse).

I don't think it was a very good idea to make this thread because even if you think you can objectively define gold and Bitcoin as currencies or commodities, markets do not have objective rationality and could define them the opposite way.  If we're talking only fundamentals here, I'd still say both Bitcoin and gold are more currencies than commodities.  I therefore have no anxiety holding Bitcoin or gold during a deflationary collapse.

[freshman777]

Good luck buying physical < $1k. The paper promises can go to $0.

[kelsey]

There is no fundamental value in Ethereum, MaidSafe, Factom, StorJ. I analyzed them all, and they are all so flawed that they can't be used for anything. They have 0 usership, thus it is purely P&D. No demand for the coins otherwise.

greater fool theory;the price of an object is determined not by its intrinsic value, but rather by irrational beliefs and expectations of market participants.

[TPTB_need_war]

r0ach seriously gold is going to crash. Martin Armstrong is never wrong about these matters. So many people got pissed off at him when he was stating gold would drop to $1050 when it was at the $1600+ level. This is dead-cat bounce for people who believe the lie that gold is special. Gold is mostly a useless relic nowadays.

As MA says, gold will only come alive as a hedge against government. That is its true role (although greatly diminished now because you can't spend it any where and can't carry across a border or checkpoint and cash is being phased out so it won't be possible to sell it anonymously in blackmarkets in the future).

Since the majority of mainstream wealthly investors don't yet fear the total collapse of government, thus gold has not yet reached that moment. Right now we are still waiting for the capitulation bottom where the tinfoil hats finally get their delusion busted.

Ditto Bitcoin. Another delusion.

Well I am saying the current nosebleed pump of ETH and the rise of entirely useless altcoins such as Factom and MaidSafe is an indication of the froth in the markets and so the contagion coming is going to shake the tree and a 1000 speculators are going to try stampede out the door and fight over 1 chair.

[TPTB_need_war]

There is no fundamental value in Ethereum, MaidSafe, Factom, StorJ. I analyzed them all, and they are all so flawed that they can't be used for anything. They have 0 usership, thus it is purely P&D. No demand for the coins otherwise.

greater fool theory;the price of an object is determined not by its intrinsic value, but rather by irrational beliefs and expectations of market participants.

And the overshoot works in both directions up and down. Right now nobody understands that Ethereum, MaidSafe, Factom are broken designs that can't function. That reality will eventually hit and perhaps coincident with a general market and Bitcoin liquidity contagion.

You are correct to imply that I can't know precisely the timing.

[r0ach]

Good luck buying physical < $1k.

And this is another reason holding Bitcoin will probably be extremely profitable.  It's much easier to buy and sell Bitcoin than gold.  The second any type of financial collapse happens that makes people want gold for whatever reason, the only locally available gold will be a tiny amount at some pawn shop.  If you have $100k in the bank account and know the next day it's either going to have capital controls or vaporize to 0, tons of cash is going to be flowing into Bitcoin rather than risk buying paper gold or trying to find some pawn shop gold that isn't there.

Well I am saying the current nosebleed pump of ETH and the rise of entirely useless altcoins such as Factom and MaidSafe is an indication of the froth in the markets and so the contagion coming is going to shake the tree and a 1000 speculators are going to try stampede out the door and fight over 1 chair.

Alts that do not act as currencies can easily collapse during deflation because they would then fall under the commodity or services side of the scale.  This is why you can't compare Factom and Eth with Bitcoin in an economic forecast.  I can walk down the street and use Bitcoin as a currency to buy food already.  I can't even do that with gold!  Bitcoin is a currency not a commodity.  You can't even say that alts would crash either because they might come along for the ride even while having no actual use just like the current environment that already exists.

[TPTB_need_war]

Good luck buying physical < $1k.

And this is another reason holding Bitcoin will probably be extremely profitable.  It's much easier to buy and sell Bitcoin than gold.  The second any type of financial collapse happens that makes people want gold for whatever reason, the only locally available gold will be a tiny amount at some pawn shop.  If you have $100k in the bank account and know the next day it's either going to have capital controls or vaporize to 0, tons of cash is going to be flowing into Bitcoin rather than risk buying paper gold or trying to find some pawn shop gold that isn't there.

Physical gold is for collectors. And maybe for an extreme insurance plan. It is not a liquid investment any more (or only in certain venues and the government can shut these dealers down). And the spreads are horrendous (especially if you travel... try selling those overpriced coins in the Philippines, they will give you 5% below melt spot if they will even buy them and never cash on the spot, maybe you get your cash after 30 - 90 days).

Maybe a bag of USA silver dimes might end up being spendable but I doubt it.

Yeah Bitcoin is more accessible, but it is also going to be a fiat currency controlled by China. Once the masses are using it, they won't care if China is debasing it with their mining cartel. I hope we will have moved on from Bitcoin to something better by then.

I am not interested in profit with Bitcoin. Profit is from altcoins. Or software development. Bitcoin is for liquidity and for avoiding the banks, but now I am losing trust in Bitcoin's loss of decentralization.

[TPTB_need_war]

Yeah Bitcoin is more accessible, but it is also going to be a fiat currency controlled by China. Once the masses are using it, they won't care if China is debasing it with their mining cartel. I hope we will have moved on from Bitcoin to something better by then.

I am not interested in profit with Bitcoin. Profit is from altcoins. Or software development. Bitcoin is for liquidity and for avoiding the banks, but now I am losing trust in Bitcoin's loss of decentralization.

r0ach, you may not agree? But one possibility is we will see a selloff of Bitcoin for liquidity reasons but that might also coincide with disillusionment by the hardmoney technophile geeks who originally ideologically believed in Bitcoin. So maybe we get a selloff, to let the ideologues out and then the next ramp will be the rollout to the masses. Or Bitcoin just fails in a heap of centralized failures.

It is very murky, because I don't know how all the various players are really playing this behind the scenes (are they throwing in the towel on decentralization and joining the China oligarchy?), e.g. Blockstream, Coinbase, etc..

Any thoughts?

[andulolika]

well its's halving year, Bitcoin needs a strong support or face a supply-side consolidation. It all depends on the way Ethereum bursts. Slowly over time, or abruptly.

It will be like hiroshima i think, there is better things out there.

[bitbitch]

tulip bulbs have very interesting characteristics. so do two or three coins.

so many expressions of emotional security i have not read on here for several hours. you will die, but before then try to enjoy your time on this small planet.

[TPTB_need_war]

well its's halving year, Bitcoin needs a strong support or face a supply-side consolidation. It all depends on the way Ethereum bursts. Slowly over time, or abruptly.

...there is better things out there.

Do you mean altcoins? Like what? Litecoin? Dogecoin? Monero? Of those, afaik only Monero doesn't have a mining algorithm that isn't currently mineable with ASICs.

Please don't tell me you fell for the hype of Ethereum, MaidSafe, Factom, etc..

tulip bulbs have very interesting characteristics. so do two or three coins.

And then the South Seas bubble collapsed. Tulip bulbs have the attribute that they aren't worth 1000x their cost of manufacture.

[bitbitch]

well its's halving year, Bitcoin needs a strong support or face a supply-side consolidation. It all depends on the way Ethereum bursts. Slowly over time, or abruptly.

...there is better things out there.

Do you mean altcoins? Like what? Litecoin? Dogecoin? Monero? Of those, afaik only Monero doesn't have a mining algorithm that isn't currently mineable with ASICs.

Please don't tell me you fell for the hype of Ethereum, MaidSafe, Factom, etc..

tulip bulbs have very interesting characteristics. so do two or three coins.

And then the South Seas bubble collapsed.

i find the characteristics of the tulip bulb's life cycle very interesting. setting aside the SS bubble for just a moment, it fascinates me how the biology of a flower's reproduction process (and a virus) helped to form the first futures market. it's so interesting. the financial speculation part of the story is of less interest.

[andulolika]

well its's halving year, Bitcoin needs a strong support or face a supply-side consolidation. It all depends on the way Ethereum bursts. Slowly over time, or abruptly.

...there is better things out there.

Do you mean altcoins? Like what? Litecoin? Dogecoin? Monero? Of those, afaik only Monero doesn't have a mining algorithm that isn't currently mineable with ASICs.

Please don't tell me you fell for the hype of Ethereum, MaidSafe, Factom, etc..

I feel for DC and CLAM, if wanted it can be done right . There is not much it can be done to btc by a small community but im sure something can be done for them.

[StinkyLover]

well its's halving year, Bitcoin needs a strong support or face a supply-side consolidation. It all depends on the way Ethereum bursts. Slowly over time, or abruptly.

Markets normally do what majority NOT expect, its already priced in.

Agreed. Whatever is said on BCT expect something COMPLETELY DIFFERENT to happen. I just love the way people on this board predict events with such authority only to watch their predictions fail miserably (and still be bullish about it!).

[btcxyzzz]

WARNING: crypto-currencies are   Bitcoin is very likely going to experience a crash soon

FTFY

[inca]

Another thread from you predicting doom?

I am still waiting for my 'free money' from your last bitcoin will crash thread. The price crashed upwards and doubled instead! 

[TPTB_need_war]

Another thread from you predicting doom?

I am still waiting for my 'free money' from your last bitcoin will crash thread. The price crashed upwards and doubled instead!  

Which is what I predicted it could do. In May 2015, I stated it would rise over the summer to $320, then decline. Which is what it did. That eventually it would crash below $150, but that it could also rise to the $450 area interim. Go review klee's PnF thread in Economics -> Speculation again asshurl. I also stated I would be stopped out at $380 on a short position, but BTC declined into the mid-$200s and meandered, so I would obviously have exited my short due to the meandering. Unfortunately I was talked out of shorting it on Bitfinex by one of my regular private message cohorts, who felt I couldn't rely on Bitfinex to be liquid or not cheat. Oh well.

And yes my < $150 prediction remains.

[S3052]

Those who have followed me over the years know that I have made some prescient predictions such as the Bitcoin crash from $1000, even the collapse to $150, and even the precise timing and $320 top of the bounce before the current one. In addition the following silver prediction I made:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html

I have also stated that I thought that when gold crashes below $1000 (and likely below $850) this year, then Bitcoin would also likely get caught up in the contagion and sell off to below $150 perhaps back to double-digits. I had explained my reasoning in the past and the current indicators are:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/precious-metals-march-4th-2016/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/the-eu-going-quietly-into-the-light/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/moodys-warns-of-30-rise-in-commodity-based-company-bankruptcies-in-2016/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/east_asia/moodys-lowers-credit-rating-of-china-to-negative-from-stable/

It is not certain that gold will elect the March 13/14 turning point to begin its collapse to the final bottom of the correction that began 2011. And it is not certain that crypto-currencies will follow.

But the level of irrational pumping of altcoins tells me that we are very near to a 2013 top in crypto-currencies. The irrational speculation is off the charts again and not based in any sense of reality just as was the case for those arguing for Bitcoin to go to $1 million per BTC back in 2013. For example, Ethereum has 0 users, 0 working, scaled apps, no consensus algorithm after $18 million expended. Yet the market cap is heading towards $1 billion.

I am sniffing a big collapse in the making. Not sure if it is this March or later in the summer, but I am warning you.

Take some profits into US dollars. The Euro, Pound, Yuan, and other currencies will also collapse relative to the US dollar due to the carry trades and pegs to the dollars which put the rest of the world bet short against the dollar.

You will need some dry powder to buy when there is blood in the streets.

You've been warned.

Buy signal