WARNING: crypto-currencies are very likely going to experience a crash soon

[qiwoman2]

I think it also depends on what crypto currencies people are involved in. Some are community based coins which have a strong community support, others have good tech devs and others are mainly pump and dumps so here we have a variety to choose from. We are talking about hundreds of different coins representing all kinds of ideas and people, so where some might fair badly, others may rise to some prominence, depending on their developers and followers.

[1713963148]

1713963148

[TPTB_need_war]

Those who have followed me over the years know that I have made some prescient predictions such as the Bitcoin crash from $1000, even the collapse to $150, and even the precise timing and $320 top of the bounce before the current one. In addition the following silver prediction I made:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html

I have also stated that I thought that when gold crashes below $1000 (and likely below $850) this year, then Bitcoin would also likely get caught up in the contagion and sell off to below $150 perhaps back to double-digits. I had explained my reasoning in the past and the current indicators are:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/precious-metals-march-4th-2016/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/the-eu-going-quietly-into-the-light/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/americas-current-economy/moodys-warns-of-30-rise-in-commodity-based-company-bankruptcies-in-2016/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/east_asia/moodys-lowers-credit-rating-of-china-to-negative-from-stable/

It is not certain that gold will elect the March 13/14 turning point to begin its collapse to the final bottom of the correction that began 2011. And it is not certain that crypto-currencies will follow.

But the level of irrational pumping of altcoins tells me that we are very near to a 2013 top in crypto-currencies. The irrational speculation is off the charts again and not based in any sense of reality just as was the case for those arguing for Bitcoin to go to $1 million per BTC back in 2013. For example, Ethereum has 0 users, 0 working, scaled apps, no consensus algorithm after $18 million expended. Yet the market cap is heading towards $1 billion.

I am sniffing a big collapse in the making. Not sure if it is this March or later in the summer, but I am warning you.

Take some profits into US dollars. The Euro, Pound, Yuan, and other currencies will also collapse relative to the US dollar due to the carry trades and pegs to the dollars which put the rest of the world bet short against the dollar.

You will need some dry powder to buy when there is blood in the streets.

You've been warned.

Buy signal

Overconfidence. Sell signal.

[Vaccomondus]

lol you called it, ethereum is dropping

[TPTB_need_war]

lol you called it, ethereum is dropping

That might be a head fake:

Somebody sold 1500 BTC worth of ether, calm your tits.

Could even be insiders selling to themselves at lower prices to try to manipulate the market to think that 1500 BTC can exit without driving the price too low.

Note every time I have spilled more beans on how Ethereum can't scale, as I did again today, the price declines. When I go away for 2 days, the price skyrockets.

[noobtrader]

 

WOW....

all these prediction would be fit perfectly in augur... LOL 

[TPTB_need_war]

WOW....

all these prediction would be fit perfectly in augur... LOL  

Except that augur is nonsense, because the market is not an accurate prediction paradigm. The market speaks, but after the fact.

I could sell you idiots turds wrapped in a Snicker's bar wrapper and you'd buy it, take it home proudly, and put in your ref for safe storage without ever opening to verify it. Then later when your frig smells like shit, you go searching for some poo and never open the Snicker.

[noobtrader]

WOW....

all these prediction would be fit perfectly in augur... LOL  

Except that augur is nonsense, because the market is not an accurate prediction paradigm. The market speaks, but after the fact.

I could sell you idiots turds wrapped in a Snicker's bar wrapper and you'd buy it, take it home proudly, and put in your ref for safe storage without ever opening to verify it. Then later when your frig smells like shit, you go searching for some poo and never open the Snicker.

augur more like decentralized betting market,  they want us to bet on everything.  if you look at it that way, it actually make sense.

[TPTB_need_war]

WOW....

all these prediction would be fit perfectly in augur... LOL  

Except that augur is nonsense, because the market is not an accurate prediction paradigm. The market speaks, but after the fact.

I could sell you idiots turds wrapped in a Snicker's bar wrapper and you'd buy it, take it home proudly, and put in your ref for safe storage without ever opening to verify it. Then later when your frig smells like shit, you go searching for some poo and never open the Snicker.

augur more like decentralized betting market,  they want us to bet on everything.  if you look at it that way, it actually make sense.

True. But we can already do that. What augur is trying to do is figure out how to record of the outcomes decentralized. But the problem is that violates the Nash equilibrium (since users have game theories to profit on reporting different outcomes). I don't expect Augur to function decentralized and expect it to diverge into chaotic disorder unless they centralize control of the recording of the outcomes (in which case they've accomplished nothing). Bitshares is centralized which enables using a price feed for the BitUSD algorithm.

There is a lot of bullshit floating around in this forum.

[TPTB_need_war]

I'm long term

What if there is no long-term:

Well, that's the question we've all be asking since 2009 essentially. I'll definitely consider what you're saying and I appreciate your comments. It's hard for me to imagine BTC going to zero. The only way it doesn't make sense for me to keep holding it through the upcoming economic turbulence is in that event that it does fail. What are the odds?

I don't know but even if it doesn't fail to stop functioning, I am nearly certain the mining is controlled by the Chinese and they will cooperate with the G20 to make sure you Bitcoin's don't transact until you pay Hellary Clinton or Merkel 100% taxes on your gains (because you can't prove your coins weren't used in money laundering before you obtained them). Capital controls are coming and Bitcoin will not escape them.

[btcbug]

I'm long term

What if there is no long-term:

Well, that's the question we've all be asking since 2009 essentially. I'll definitely consider what you're saying and I appreciate your comments. It's hard for me to imagine BTC going to zero. The only way it doesn't make sense for me to keep holding it through the upcoming economic turbulence is in that event that it does fail. What are the odds?

I don't know but even if it doesn't fail to stop functioning, I am nearly certain the mining is controlled by the Chinese and they will cooperate with the G20 to make sure you Bitcoin's don't transact until you pay Hellary Clinton or Merkel 100% taxes on your gains (because you can't prove your coins weren't used in money laundering before you obtained them). Capital controls are coming and Bitcoin will not escape them.

Will a truly anonymous coin arise to save us before then? I've been keeping my eye on that situation for a long time and I've read your comments about no alt-coins (xmr, dash, etc) being truly anonymous (yet). I've always thought that whatever coin becomes the the choice of the black markets for it's anonymity, will be HUGE.

[schlonged]

The controlled interest rate set by the fed means nothing compared to the amount of debt they can choose to monetize with the click of a button.

The fed can raise interest rates and still buy up every single junk bond on the planet. Then what do you think that all these recapitalized governments, businesses, and people will do with their quadrillions of freshly loaned US fiat?

They can offer Puerto Rico a zillion dollar loan, and how fast do you think it will take them to re-make millionaires of their public servants ? and that's after they make their existing bondholders whole.

So you better watch your hole here

Don't get schlonged like Hillary.

The fed funds rate is not the indicator, it's the head fake here.

That's why NIRP is not automatically increasing liquidity in the areas where it is being rolled out.  Deliquient debtors don't care what their interest rate is. They only care weather or not their loan was approved, and just because the interest rate may be zero, does not mean that you are approved for any amount.  So you see, credit restriction is the key to deflation.  That is why deflation can always be avoided if the fed chooses to increase its balance sheet and create a new loan.  Trust me, you don't want to see their balance sheet.

Truse me, I've declared bankruptcy more times than you.

All Leman Bros needed was a loan (at any interest rate) and their bankruptcy (and subsequent asset deflation) would have been avoided

[CC-Resurgam]

I understand that btc and other ALT-coins are in danger in the upcoming years however I do not believe that all coins will die off. I believe we are on the brink of a financial war between countries using altcoins. I forsee that every shit coin will be forgotten. coins will no longer be allowed to be created. and current coins will be under a tight microscope by various governments to make sure nothing shady or dangerous is happening. but I believe the few coins that are deemed secure and safe to use will become HUGE. quite possibly as big as BTC in its peak. and will be utilized by various companies. regardless of what happens to cryptocurrency I believe that blockchain technology will revolutionize the future of banking, communications, even transportation and GPS. it is all a matter of how we work with our coins now that will determine if they will exist in a year.

[fartbags]

We are going higher in time. Just keep buying coins and holding them.

[TPTB_need_war]

[Idiotic nonsense from a brainwashed fool]

Debt serviceability determines how many loans can be made. The Minsky Moment comes when for each new unit of debt that is created, negative units of cash flow are deducted from the economy. This is called the negative marginal utility of debt threshold.

Please don't slobber on my thread again with your tinfoil hat atrophied brain stem.

[TPTB_need_war]

I'm long term

What if there is no long-term:

Well, that's the question we've all be asking since 2009 essentially. I'll definitely consider what you're saying and I appreciate your comments. It's hard for me to imagine BTC going to zero. The only way it doesn't make sense for me to keep holding it through the upcoming economic turbulence is in that event that it does fail. What are the odds?

I don't know but even if it doesn't fail to stop functioning, I am nearly certain the mining is controlled by the Chinese and they will cooperate with the G20 to make sure you Bitcoin's don't transact until you pay Hellary Clinton or Merkel 100% taxes on your gains (because you can't prove your coins weren't used in money laundering before you obtained them). Capital controls are coming and Bitcoin will not escape them.

Will a truly anonymous coin arise to save us before then? I've been keeping my eye on that situation for a long time and I've read your comments about no alt-coins (xmr, dash, etc) being truly anonymous (yet). I've always thought that whatever coin becomes the the choice of the black markets for it's anonymity, will be HUGE.

If such an overt coin can stand up to the G20 cooperation and China's ASIC mining dominance of any coin they wish to dominate. I think impossible. However see the recent stand by Apple and enjoined by other tech giants against the NSA.

Rather I think the black market coin will be the microtransaction coin. That is the direction I am headed.

[mangox]

Ethereum is just another alt-coin pump and dump like all of the rest. And, let's be clear, on hype alone it will make a lot of people very rich; in the short term.
In the long term people will see that it was a hype fueled bubble that solves no particular problem and will stand on the wreckage of Mastercoin, mooncoin, maxcoin, and unobtanium.

[TPTB_need_war]

on hype alone it will make a lot of people very rich; in the short term

It will make most of the speculators very poor by definition of a P&D.

[TPTB_need_war]

Again per the theory of a link of crash of crypto with an upcoming crash in gold:

Martin Armstrong is still emphasizing a dead-cat bounce of gold to perhaps $1309+, then a crash to a final low < $1000 and mostly likely < $850:

We are targeting the reaction high and the final low.

[hv_]

Again per the theory of a link of crash of crypto with an upcoming crash in gold:

Martin Armstrong is still emphasizing a dead-cat bounce of gold to perhaps $1309+, then a crash to a final low < $1000 and mostly likely < $850:

We are targeting the reaction high and the final low.

I expect the same pattern in gold, but from the next low (= double bottom) I expect a very strong long run. Chinese (again!) are heavily buying physical gold - more than they report. On the other hand you see Monster paper trading (shoting) at CME - to get the physical cheap. You can imagine what will happen once that negative bubble go bust.

Gold is still save heaven for the non-cryptos.

 

[wpalczynski]

What are Armstorngs views on real estate in the short and medium term?