diff thread Mar 3 to Mar 17? picks are closed.... prize = 0.1 btc

[philipma1957]

new thread link
I will be locking this once I pay off




https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1402986.msg14238081#msg14238081














I have 0.6 btc left  so six more jumps and funds empty.

I think I will go up to the ½ ing so I may add the needed funding to reach it.

Just setting up-- back link to last diff thread  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1369886.0

we had a winner so we start at 0.10 btc

 I am allowing anyone that Joined the site  before Jan 1 , 2016  and has 30 posts to play.

I have decided to allow rollovers to just keep going.

I have 0.6 btc left in prize money which means we go on for at least 12 weeks.

That  is around May 20- June 1.  I may add more prize money so we reach the ½ ing

Rules.

 1) You joined at least last year 2015 and have 30 posts or more.
 2) Since it is free and no cost to you I may disqualify you if I think you are trying to do multiple entries.
 3) I will let these roll over so prizes could reach more then 0.2 as high as 0.6 if we have many misses

4)  picks are in the format below

so +1.0 = yourforumname  is the way to write your pick    and that gives you  +1.00 to   +1.09 percent as your range

this is last contest


-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean

-3.1 = tertius993------------------- the winner-----  Waiting for his btc addy to pay him the 0.20 btc
-3.0 = wlefever

-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 = pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi



5)  remember it is a spec thread about difficulty. so spec .

6) and since it is free of charge my rules pretty much are subject changed by me and tiebreakers disqualification's  yada yada yada are up to me.




we use bitcoinwisdom to pick winner







Difficulty History

Date                       Difficulty         Change   Hash Rate



Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s




Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   155,352,530,501 (-1.94%)

Adjust time:   After 2009 Blocks, About 13.6 days     ________ When this is 1416 blocks picks open

Hashrate(?):   1,205,074,736 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.3 minutes
6 blocks: 58.6 minutes
Updated:   19:25 (1.8 minutes ago)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   155,352,530,501 (-1.94%)

Adjust time:   After 2009 Blocks, About 13.6 days---------- When this is 816 block picks close

Hashrate(?):   1,205,074,736 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.3 minutes
6 blocks: 58.6 minutes
Updated:   

[Mikestang]

Looks like someone flipped a switch, network hash rate took a huge spike up after the negative adjustment.  Gee, could that be on purpose?

[RichBC]

Looks like someone flipped a switch, network hash rate took a huge spike up after the negative adjustment.  Gee, could that be on purpose?

I have often wondered if changes at Big Farms would in any way be structured round difficulty changes? A thought that has struck me is that if you were making significant changes that might disrupt Mining then you would not do them in the last few Days of a Period when the rewards were higher but wait till the early Days of the new Period?

Except in this case where the rewards will be higher in the New period, so perhaps you would hold off adding new Hash that would make the Difficulty change less advantageous?


Rich

[philipma1957]

Looks like someone flipped a switch, network hash rate took a huge spike up after the negative adjustment.  Gee, could that be on purpose?

I have often wondered if changes at Big Farms would in any way be structured round difficulty changes? A thought that has struck me is that if you were making significant changes that might disrupt Mining then you would not do them in the last few Days of a Period when the rewards were higher but wait till the early Days of the new Period?

Except in this case where the rewards will be higher in the New period, so perhaps you would hold off adding new Hash that would make the Difficulty change less advantageous?


Rich

Absolutely correct.  13 to 14 days of a -3.1 adjustment

Which if you mined like mad a day ago would have been 13 to 14 days with a +1 adjustment.



This is hash rate manipulation to the max. Not good for the industry.

Also notice price drop to 388 hmmm  same guy dumping the new coins to pay for the new gear.


Strip mining at its best.


Spoke soon it has dialed back a bit.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,543,750,077 (-0.56%)
Adjust time:   After 1887 Blocks, About 12.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,214,525,128 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:


   
https://blockchain.info/blocks

401313 (Main Chain)   2016-03-05 19:32:47
401189 (Main Chain)   2016-03-05 00:05:53

125 blocks in the time for 118  about +6%

[notlist3d]

I am going to be very surprised if we don't get a positive here.   I can't see a pattern in past 3... just does not make sense:
Mar 04 2016    158,427,203,767    -3.10%    1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016    163,491,654,909    13.44%    1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016    144,116,447,847    20.06%    1,031,625,717 GH/s

Huge jumps... price is down.  Will be another interesting week.

[philipma1957]

I am going to be very surprised if we don't get a positive here.   I can't see a pattern in past 3... just does not make sense:
Mar 04 2016    158,427,203,767    -3.10%    1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016    163,491,654,909    13.44%    1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016    144,116,447,847    20.06%    1,031,625,717 GH/s

Huge jumps... price is down.  Will be another interesting week.

I have reached the point of I have no idea what will happen in terms of price or diff.

The only saving grace for me is the solar array is not quite done yet.

So I have not had to decide to stay with 6 avalon6s and wait for bitfury gear to fill the array.

At least I can wait a week or two to decide that.

[leowonderful]

I'm still going positive. Mining farms will have to be positive before halving and i'm sure the hashrate and difficulty will explode soon.
+3.2 for me, because I ALWAYS GO POSITIVE. and I am right 50% of the time haha

[RichBC]

So we have had our first full Day of the new Period and we seem to be back in positive territory with +4.17% 150 Blocks. Far too early to really know what is going on but a punchy start to Today which has pulled the Run rate for the period so far to +7.5%. As we all know anything can happen from here....


Rich

[philipma1957]

I'm still going positive. Mining farms will have to be positive before halving and i'm sure the hashrate and difficulty will explode soon.
+3.2 for me, because I ALWAYS GO POSITIVE. and I am right 50% of the time haha

that pick does not count far too early for picking.

[Psi]

   Congrats to winner  tertius993 !  Thanks for Philip for having contest,   at +7.1  last time i wasn't  even close but think my pick this time will be close to that . I have learned quite a bit  about bitcoin in general just reading this thread regularly,  so thanks everyone.

[philipma1957]

  Congrats to winner  tertius993 !  Thanks for Philip for having contest,   at +7.1  last time i wasn't  even close but think my pick this time will be close to that . I have learned quite a bit  about bitcoin in general just reading this thread regularly,  so thanks everyone.

yeah we are looking up

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,173,731,567 (-0.16%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Not accurate
Adjust time:   After 1779 Blocks, About 12.1 days
Hashrate(?):   1,188,448,145 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.4 minutes
6 blocks: 58.7 minutes
Updated:

http://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   401422
Total BTC   15.286M
 
Difficulty   158427203767
Estimated   159138112710 in 1778 blks      this is a little better   +0.44%
 
Network total   1138183.931 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.02 / 598 s


http://blockr.io/charts

3-5-2016    152 blocks

https://blockchain.info/blocks
401423 (Main Chain)   2016-03-06 13:55:08
401339 (Main Chain)   2016-03-06 00:06:39     85 blocks in the time for 84


so 237/228 = +3.94%    is close  missing a few blocks from 3-4-2016

 so we are just over 4% real number  that would be a diff of 164.7

[RichBC]

So Day 2 ended up up at +2.78% 148 Blocks. Day 1 was +4.17% and the Run Rate at the moment for this period is currently +5.39%, so we are still finding our new level but looking like it might be in the +4% to +6% region?


Rich

[philipma1957]

So Day 2 ended up up at +2.78% 148 Blocks. Day 1 was +4.17% and the Run Rate at the moment for this period is currently +5.39%, so we are still finding our new level but looking like it might be in the +4% to +6% region?


Rich

well a neg 3 followed by a plus 5   is okay.  I rather see no more then plus 2.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   162,096,314,521 (+2.32%) <<<<<<<<< that still reflects some of last adjustment so it is not accurate as a real time number we are 3.7%
Adjust time:   After 1631 Blocks, About 10.8 days
Hashrate(?):   1,207,095,958 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.7 minutes
6 blocks: 57.4 minutes
Updated:   

[notlist3d]

Price is hanging around 409.  I liked the 440+ area much better.  But it seems like it's pretty slow moving.   I really want to see some movement before having upwards (I hope it happens).

So far pretty happy with low numbers on bitwisdom.  Still cant explain it.... but happy none the less.

[RichBC]

Price is hanging around 409.  I liked the 440+ area much better.  But it seems like it's pretty slow moving.   I really want to see some movement before having upwards (I hope it happens).

So far pretty happy with low numbers on bitwisdom.  Still cant explain it.... but happy none the less.

The price had a lot of trouble holding 400 over the Weekend, but at least we did not slip too low, but as you say would be good to see it going strongly up and clearing 450.

Rich

[Mikestang]

Yea, price was a bit up and down over the weekend, but it's holding its own.  I can't see any direct relationship between price and diff, which is counter-intuitive to me, but it is what it is.  I would be afraid of a rising price if it could be linked directly to rising diff, but that does not seem to be the case recently.  Another small negative would be great, would like to see diff below 150G, but if it has to be positive hopefully it will stay under 5% (even though 5% of 160G is still a lot of new hash!).

[philipma1957]

Yea, price was a bit up and down over the weekend, but it's holding its own.  I can't see any direct relationship between price and diff, which is counter-intuitive to me, but it is what it is.  I would be afraid of a rising price if it could be linked directly to rising diff, but that does not seem to be the case recently.  Another small negative would be great, would like to see diff below 150G, but if it has to be positive hopefully it will stay under 5% (even though 5% of 160G is still a lot of new hash!).

it is a bit down today

https://blockchain.info/


401612 (Main Chain)   2016-03-07 20:58:25

401487 (Main Chain)   2016-03-07 00:00:23


126 blocks in the time it takes for 127 blocks

I would love for that to stay the course .  143 blocks a day for the rest of the diff period works for me.

[ezeminer]

Darn it became 1.32%, but hopefully it'll come down now. Does anyone else feel like we have reached a difficulty peak, and should come back down as summer comes around?



Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   160,512,373,038 (+1.32%)
Adjust time:   After 1562 Blocks, About 10.6 days
Hashrate(?):   1,153,377,140 GH/s

[philipma1957]

Darn it became 1.32%, but hopefully it'll come down now. Does anyone else feel like we have reached a difficulty peak, and should come back down as summer comes around?



Bitcoin Difficulty:   158,427,203,767
Estimated Next Difficulty:   160,512,373,038 (+1.32%)
Adjust time:   After 1562 Blocks, About 10.6 days
Hashrate(?):   1,153,377,140 GH/s

yes more gear is above the equator so it is warming up and heat becomes a problem.

this could hold hash rates down a bit.

picks are going to start in about 20-26 hours.

[Mikestang]

Looking at the graphs that are available, whatever was turned on right at the adjustment is still on, that hash looks pretty constant and it might not go away.  Hopefully that will be the only addition and diff will stay ~ level this period.