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Author Topic: [Archive] BFL trolling museum  (Read 68171 times)
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January 21, 2013, 01:14:02 PM
 #2541



With 66Ghash, 400 Watt, current difficulty, $0.15/kWh, 15$/BTC your revenue per day is $152.

Once Avalon has shipped all units of their first batch difficulty will be approx. 6,000,000. Your revenue per day will still be $78.

Even with 4,000 Watt it would be $65.

You see, power consumption does not make such a big difference as BFL/Josh claims.

If you add on all of BFL's preorders, difficulty will go up over 100,000,000.  

a 60GH/s device will only make $5.  power will cost $8.  So when all the paid for ASICs are in the wild, the low power usage devices are gunna look pretty good!

Bullshit.

The difference in earning potential (in the time span of a day) in your scenario would only be a couple of cents. Marginal profit.

At that point it won't matter very much whether you have a BFL or an Avalon. The difference will be counted in cents.

-----------------------------------

Try opening a cyber cafe and running the numbers between "thin client" 5watt machines vs 400 watt fully equipped PC's. You will quickly notice that the difference is marginal over a single day. And barely worth the trade-offs in the span of a month.

(Now in the span of years, those cents and dollars add up.


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January 21, 2013, 01:25:46 PM
 #2542



Try opening a cyber cafe and running the numbers between "thin client" 5watt machines vs 400 watt fully equipped PC's. You will quickly notice that the difference is marginal over a single day. And barely worth the trade-offs in the span of a month.

(Now in the span of years, those cents and dollars add up.

Buddy, we all don't live in the land of fairy's and flying pigs ya know.

Most of us actually pay a ridiculous amount for electricity nowadays

I'm Queensland, Australia it's currently $0.23 KW/h.  Which is an extra $1.80 per day that we don't have to spend.

If I gotta wait a few more weeks for my ASIC, it's an extra $644 I don't have to spend over the course of a years.

Marginal my arse.

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PuertoLibre
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January 21, 2013, 01:45:29 PM
 #2543



Try opening a cyber cafe and running the numbers between "thin client" 5watt machines vs 400 watt fully equipped PC's. You will quickly notice that the difference is marginal over a single day. And barely worth the trade-offs in the span of a month.

(Now in the span of years, those cents and dollars add up.

Buddy, we all don't live in the land of fairy's and flying pigs ya know.

Most of us actually pay a ridiculous amount for electricity nowadays

I'm Queensland, Australia it's currently $0.23 KW/h.  Which is an extra $1.80 per day that we don't have to spend.

If I gotta wait a few more weeks for my ASIC, it's an extra $644 I don't have to spend over the course of a years.

Marginal my arse.
Take it up with BFL!

(By the way, I genuinely sympathize that you have to pay such high electrical rates.)


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January 21, 2013, 01:47:09 PM
 #2544



Try opening a cyber cafe and running the numbers between "thin client" 5watt machines vs 400 watt fully equipped PC's. You will quickly notice that the difference is marginal over a single day. And barely worth the trade-offs in the span of a month.

(Now in the span of years, those cents and dollars add up.

Buddy, we all don't live in the land of fairy's and flying pigs ya know.

Most of us actually pay a ridiculous amount for electricity nowadays

I'm Queensland, Australia it's currently $0.23 KW/h.  Which is an extra $1.80 per day that we don't have to spend.

If I gotta wait a few more weeks for my ASIC, it's an extra $644 I don't have to spend over the course of a years.

Marginal my arse.

1.80 per day
1.80 x 30 = 54 per month
1.80 x 365 = 648 per year.

Selling cigarettes to strangers on a street corner...25cents per cig.

Ergo: You'd be better off selling cigarettes on a street corner by the time you have to worry about your rig making that small a profit margin.


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meowmeowbrowncow
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January 21, 2013, 01:59:50 PM
 #2545



Try opening a cyber cafe and running the numbers between "thin client" 5watt machines vs 400 watt fully equipped PC's. You will quickly notice that the difference is marginal over a single day. And barely worth the trade-offs in the span of a month.

(Now in the span of years, those cents and dollars add up.

Buddy, we all don't live in the land of fairy's and flying pigs ya know.

Most of us actually pay a ridiculous amount for electricity nowadays

I'm Queensland, Australia it's currently $0.23 KW/h.  Which is an extra $1.80 per day that we don't have to spend.

If I gotta wait a few more weeks for my ASIC, it's an extra $644 I don't have to spend over the course of a years.

Marginal my arse.

1.80 per day
1.80 x 30 = 54 per month
1.80 x 365 = 648 per year.

Selling cigarettes to strangers on a street corner...25cents per cig.

Ergo: You'd be better off selling cigarettes on a street corner by the time you have to worry about your rig making that small a profit margin.


Yep.  All of this bickering over kWh and slivers of profit at a point in time where difficulty is so high.


Better off worrying about USD/GH.  BFL selling anyone a chip for 150 that costs 2 to produce when ROI will be near 12 months is madness.

"Bitcoin has been an amazing ride, but the most fascinating part to me is the seemingly universal tendency of libertarians to immediately become authoritarians the very moment they are given any measure of power to silence the dissent of others."  - The Bible
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January 21, 2013, 02:09:40 PM
 #2546



With 66Ghash, 400 Watt, current difficulty, $0.15/kWh, 15$/BTC your revenue per day is $152.

Once Avalon has shipped all units of their first batch difficulty will be approx. 6,000,000. Your revenue per day will still be $78.

Even with 4,000 Watt it would be $65.

You see, power consumption does not make such a big difference as BFL/Josh claims.


If you add on all of BFL's preorders, difficulty will go up over 100,000,000. 


a 60GH/s device will only make $5.  power will cost $8.  So when all the paid for ASICs are in the wild, the low power usage devices are gunna look pretty good!
I call bullshit on that. That would be a network hashrate of 750TH/s. BFL may have done well with their preorders, but their numbers are more likely 1/5th of that based on previous comments Inaba has made.
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January 21, 2013, 02:17:48 PM
 #2547

...

Yep.  All of this bickering over kWh and slivers of profit at a point in time where difficulty is so high.


Better off worrying about USD/GH.  BFL selling anyone a chip for 150 that costs 2 to produce when ROI will be near 12 months is madness.
Well it's even worse than that:

FPGA -> ASIC

Firstly it doesn't matter the GH/s it does, coz everyone who buys one will be getting that sort of GH/s

Seriously, everyone is simply upgrading their hardware for no gain ... well actually for way less gain ...

Secondly, the price from FPGA -> ASIC = 2x

So entry cost to the same competition has doubled

But wait, halving!

So gross return has also halved.

... OK you see the picture? Tongue

As has been stated before, at the goldfields, the guy who sells the mining equipment gets the gold ...

... damn I should be selling cgminer Tongue Cheesy

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January 21, 2013, 02:37:19 PM
 #2548

...

Yep.  All of this bickering over kWh and slivers of profit at a point in time where difficulty is so high.


Better off worrying about USD/GH.  BFL selling anyone a chip for 150 that costs 2 to produce when ROI will be near 12 months is madness.
Well it's even worse than that:

FPGA -> ASIC

Firstly it doesn't matter the GH/s it does, coz everyone who buys one will be getting that sort of GH/s

Seriously, everyone is simply upgrading their hardware for no gain ... well actually for way less gain ...

Secondly, the price from FPGA -> ASIC = 2x

So entry cost to the same competition has doubled

But wait, halving!

So gross return has also halved.

... OK you see the picture? Tongue

As has been stated before, at the goldfields, the guy who sells the mining equipment gets the gold ...

... damn I should be selling cgminer Tongue Cheesy


Yep.  Nothing much else to say that isn't an obvious conclusion.


(The most obvious is that asics should have been crowd funded and developed in open source fashion)


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January 21, 2013, 02:39:37 PM
 #2549

$0.15/kWh

I pay double that.

current difficulty

Ahahahaha.

Too funny.
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January 21, 2013, 02:40:25 PM
 #2550

And it won't be long until prices of shovels come crashing down as difficulty skyrockets....

But hey... someone has got to do the digging !
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January 21, 2013, 02:51:28 PM
 #2551

Actually, talking about current difficulty is surprisingly valid, at least for the first few people who get their Avalons. Difficulty is going to readjust in two days, after which we're going to have another 2016 blocks at around 3M difficulty. Even if all the Avalon units ship tomorrow and hit the network in 3 days, they would still have a week of mining at the current difficulty and would earn around 80BTC before the difficulty readjusted.

Of course, all the Avalons won't ship tomorrow so it will be better for those who get theirs early and worse for those who get theirs late, but those Avalon customers who get their units before CNY will probably have them paid off and have a little bonus spending coin by the end of February. Not that it really matters now, but first batch Avalon customers are the big early winners in the ASIC market.
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January 21, 2013, 03:05:51 PM
 #2552

If you add on all of BFL's preorders, difficulty will go up over 100,000,000.  [/b]

a 60GH/s device will only make $5.  power will cost $8.  So when all the paid for ASICs are in the wild, the low power usage devices are gunna look pretty good!
I call bullshit on that. That would be a network hashrate of 750TH/s. BFL may have done well with their preorders, but their numbers are more likely 1/5th of that based on previous comments Inaba has made.

Cancellations have taken their toll. BFL is only ordering 10,000 chips, so well under 75 TH/s is due to be shipped in the first batch.

Buy & Hold
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January 21, 2013, 03:07:43 PM
 #2553

Why do so many quote BFL's power "spec" as a firm number? BFL was WAY off on their last product's power specs, they do not have chips, and wasn't it their rep that was backpedaling on power consumption estimates just recently? Their power "spec" is a guess and likely a wild ass overly optimistic guess at that, just like their shipping dates.  

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January 21, 2013, 03:16:10 PM
 #2554

If you add on all of BFL's preorders, difficulty will go up over 100,000,000.  [/b]

a 60GH/s device will only make $5.  power will cost $8.  So when all the paid for ASICs are in the wild, the low power usage devices are gunna look pretty good!
I call bullshit on that. That would be a network hashrate of 750TH/s. BFL may have done well with their preorders, but their numbers are more likely 1/5th of that based on previous comments Inaba has made.

Cancellations have taken their toll. BFL is only ordering 10,000 chips, so well under 75 TH/s is due to be shipped in the first batch.

Source for any of that? BFL most likely only has 10k-12k coming in their first batch because that was all the could fit in that run, but there's no indication that all the preorders will be covered by the first batch. They haven' had that many big cancellations that have been revealed, and there's still 55Th/s listed just on the wait list thread.
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January 21, 2013, 03:45:49 PM
 #2555

They haven' had that many big cancellations that have been revealed, and there's still 55Th/s listed just on the wait list thread.

This.

Only small time, impatient miners have cancelled their orders. Once I see users with an actual substantial investment (see Fefox or Gigavps) in BFL start to cancel, then I might reconsider...which is very unlikely to happen.

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January 21, 2013, 04:05:13 PM
 #2556


Only small time, WHINGY, impatient miners have cancelled their orders.  Also when the same 3 people keep saying 80% have taken refunds, it doesn't make it happen.

Fixed it for ya!

also, I got money on a bet saying DIFFICULTY will be 100,000,000 by 1st Jan 2014.  I'm confidant, how about you lot?

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January 21, 2013, 04:10:19 PM
 #2557


Only small time, WHINGY, impatient miners have cancelled their orders.  Also when the same 3 people keep saying 80% have taken refunds, it doesn't make it happen.

Fixed it for ya!

also, I got money on a bet saying DIFFICULTY will be 100,000,000 by 1st Jan 2014.  I'm confidant, how about you lot?

I'm confident saying that tying up BTC on a bet that won't be resolved for a year is a very poor investment.

...no idea what difficulty will be 344 days in the future.

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January 21, 2013, 04:23:21 PM
 #2558

I'm confident saying that tying up BTC on a bet that won't be resolved for a year is a very poor investment.

...no idea what difficulty will be 344 days in the future.


At least not until all preordered ASICs are in the wild and we can figure out how steady the growth rate resumes after that. That, and watching organofcorti's blog Tongue

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January 21, 2013, 07:47:23 PM
 #2559


Only small time, WHINGY, impatient miners have cancelled their orders.  Also when the same 3 people keep saying 80% have taken refunds, it doesn't make it happen.

Fixed it for ya!

also, I got money on a bet saying DIFFICULTY will be 100,000,000 by 1st Jan 2014.  I'm confidant, how about you lot?
The only way I see that happening is if the Bitcoin price goes up significantly from here...
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January 21, 2013, 07:49:47 PM
 #2560


Only small time, WHINGY, impatient miners have cancelled their orders.  Also when the same 3 people keep saying 80% have taken refunds, it doesn't make it happen.

Fixed it for ya!

also, I got money on a bet saying DIFFICULTY will be 100,000,000 by 1st Jan 2014.  I'm confidant, how about you lot?
The only way I see that happening is if the Bitcoin price goes up significantly from here...

Or the price of ASICs fall fast...
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