[Archive] BFL trolling museum

[MrTeal]

So the first shipment will be 10,000 - 12,000 chips worth.

Sounds like refunds are adding up. First it was 20k, then up to 100k chips. Now it's down to only 10k chips.

Can you link that quote?

I think you're getting confused, tho. They had ordered 100k chips from the fab. Only 20k of those would be available in the first round of shipments, and then the other 80k would come later. Idk about that 12k number tho, maybe it was how much will actually be shipping to customers?

20k would have covered all preorders as of some point in November or December (can't remember).  10k-12k is the first batch of chips from the first wafer, and it seems like Josh is saying those will make up the first shipment heading out of BFL.  So, it looks like MOST of the preorders will be filled via the 1/3 plan in the first week of production.  Which doesn't make a whole lot of sense, so I am going to ask Josh for more clarification.  By "shipment", he may just mean that the first batch of chips they receive will be from only one wafer, and will be that many chips.

EDIT:  Just saw this part of the quote again.  It does sound like they'll be holding all preorders until those first 75TH/s are built, then sending them all out.  Bummer. 

The 1/3 plan applies to the first 10,000 - 12,000 chips. After that it's FIFO.

10k-12k chips won't be from one wafer. That would probably be the first 10 wafers, based on die size.

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[Bogart]

Does anyone who doesn't have any skin in the game still believe BFL is for real?

It seems to me that the only people who believe BFL isn't some kind of scam are those with pre-orders, the same way that only those with large investments in BCS&T believed that Pirateat40 was for real towards the end.

I don't have any pre-orders with BFL (never did), and I believe they're for real.

They may not be going about everything in an ideal manner, but I believe they are making a sincere effort to produce ASIC miners, as they claim.  I also think they have a decent shot at success, though it may or may not happen in February.

Ppl have raised what may be some valid points about issues they ought to have anticipated.  It looks to me like they did not anticipate needing to apply OPC to the mask, and ended up with their "refraction issue" (which they are now more correctly calling a "diffraction issue") in their first spin.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/690-13-jan-2013-asic-update-discussion-thread-9.html#post10463

That sounds like a rather elementary mistake to make.  I've never designed or produced an IC.  I've never even fabbed a PCB, but in my limited Internet Research (just a few hours) on IC production, I learned about the need for OPC (yes, before Josh elaborated on the issue).

[SgtSpike]

So the first shipment will be 10,000 - 12,000 chips worth.

Sounds like refunds are adding up. First it was 20k, then up to 100k chips. Now it's down to only 10k chips.

Can you link that quote?

I think you're getting confused, tho. They had ordered 100k chips from the fab. Only 20k of those would be available in the first round of shipments, and then the other 80k would come later. Idk about that 12k number tho, maybe it was how much will actually be shipping to customers?

20k would have covered all preorders as of some point in November or December (can't remember).  10k-12k is the first batch of chips from the first wafer, and it seems like Josh is saying those will make up the first shipment heading out of BFL.  So, it looks like MOST of the preorders will be filled via the 1/3 plan in the first week of production.  Which doesn't make a whole lot of sense, so I am going to ask Josh for more clarification.  By "shipment", he may just mean that the first batch of chips they receive will be from only one wafer, and will be that many chips.

EDIT:  Just saw this part of the quote again.  It does sound like they'll be holding all preorders until those first 75TH/s are built, then sending them all out.  Bummer. 

The 1/3 plan applies to the first 10,000 - 12,000 chips. After that it's FIFO.

10k-12k chips won't be from one wafer. That would probably be the first 10 wafers, based on die size.

Ah, I misread that quote..!

[smoothie]

So the first shipment will be 10,000 - 12,000 chips worth.

Sounds like refunds are adding up. First it was 20k, then up to 100k chips. Now it's down to only 10k chips.

Can you link that quote?

I think you're getting confused, tho. They had ordered 100k chips from the fab. Only 20k of those would be available in the first round of shipments, and then the other 80k would come later. Idk about that 12k number tho, maybe it was how much will actually be shipping to customers?

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/690-13-jan-2013-asic-update-discussion-thread-8.html#post10450

First batch has been slashed to 10k chips.

TY for the link.

So 10-12k chips is somewhere around 75-90TH/s? Do we know how long after those 12k chips are assembled and shipped before the next batch of chips is ready to process? I have some orders at the beginning that would be shipped first, and some orders that were placed later that won't be shipped first.

So this is where BFL failed to address why 90% of the previously projected chips will not be produced in the first batch as indicated previously? 90% reduction in supply is a huge red flag guys!!

[crazyates]

So the first shipment will be 10,000 - 12,000 chips worth.

Sounds like refunds are adding up. First it was 20k, then up to 100k chips. Now it's down to only 10k chips.

Can you link that quote?

I think you're getting confused, tho. They had ordered 100k chips from the fab. Only 20k of those would be available in the first round of shipments, and then the other 80k would come later. Idk about that 12k number tho, maybe it was how much will actually be shipping to customers?

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/690-13-jan-2013-asic-update-discussion-thread-8.html#post10450

First batch has been slashed to 10k chips.

TY for the link.

So 10-12k chips is somewhere around 75-90TH/s? Do we know how long after those 12k chips are assembled and shipped before the next batch of chips is ready to process? I have some orders at the beginning that would be shipped first, and some orders that were placed later that won't be shipped first.

So this is where BFL failed to address why 90% of the previously projected chips will not be produced in the first batch as indicated previously? 90% reduction in supply is a huge red flag guys!!

They said before that they would eventually get 100k chips, but not at once. The initial batch was only for 20k chips, and now it looks like it's been changed to 12k, prolly because of the redesign. Look up - you literally just reposted a quote of me already explaining that.

[Fuzzy]

Well, if I were to put money on which group would ship an ASIC unit first, I'd pick the only one that's ever shipped mining hardware before.

Too many people holding their breath.

[tvbcof]

Does anyone who doesn't have any skin in the game still believe BFL is for real?

I have no money in this and I believe BFL is sincerely trying to build what they are saying they're trying to build. I also believe they have not the slightest idea what they are doing.

I've seen nothing solid which invalidates the hypothesis that BFL is 100% scam.  At this point I lean to this hypothesis as the one which explains the most observations, and makes the most sense operationally.

By 'operationally', I mean that core perps knew that they had little hope of pulling off a real device, the logical path would be 100 % con job.  Dumping a bunch of money into some hail-Mary chip fab efforts is just not a rational way to go.

[greyhawk]

Well, if I were to put money on which group would ship an ASIC unit first, I'd pick the only one that's ever shipped mining hardware before.

Which one is this mythical only one?

BTCFPGA?
Icarus FPGA?
Cairnsmore FPGA?
Quadminer FPGA?

[smoothie]

So the first shipment will be 10,000 - 12,000 chips worth.

Sounds like refunds are adding up. First it was 20k, then up to 100k chips. Now it's down to only 10k chips.

Can you link that quote?

I think you're getting confused, tho. They had ordered 100k chips from the fab. Only 20k of those would be available in the first round of shipments, and then the other 80k would come later. Idk about that 12k number tho, maybe it was how much will actually be shipping to customers?

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/690-13-jan-2013-asic-update-discussion-thread-8.html#post10450

First batch has been slashed to 10k chips.

TY for the link.

So 10-12k chips is somewhere around 75-90TH/s? Do we know how long after those 12k chips are assembled and shipped before the next batch of chips is ready to process? I have some orders at the beginning that would be shipped first, and some orders that were placed later that won't be shipped first.

So this is where BFL failed to address why 90% of the previously projected chips will not be produced in the first batch as indicated previously? 90% reduction in supply is a huge red flag guys!!

They said before that they would eventually get 100k chips, but not at once. The initial batch was only for 20k chips, and now it looks like it's been changed to 12k, prolly because of the redesign. Look up - you literally just reposted a quote of me already explaining that.

At what point will you call their bullshit? After 3 more delays?

[SgtSpike]

Well, if I were to put money on which group would ship an ASIC unit first, I'd pick the only one that's ever shipped mining hardware before.

Too many people holding their breath.

Does anyone who doesn't have any skin in the game still believe BFL is for real?

I have no money in this and I believe BFL is sincerely trying to build what they are saying they're trying to build. I also believe they have not the slightest idea what they are doing.

I've seen nothing solid which invalidates the hypothesis that BFL is 100% scam.  At this point I lean to this hypothesis as the one which explains the most observations, and makes the most sense operationally.

By 'operationally', I mean that core perps knew that they had little hope of pulling off a real device, the logical path would be 100 % con job.  Dumping a bunch of money into some hail-Mary chip fab efforts is just not a rational way to go.

Since when is doing a con job ever the "logical path"??  I would never consider scamming people as being a logical path no matter how much money is involved.  My hope would be that the vast majority of the rest of the world would feel the same.  Obviously, there is Sonny, but he is not the only one involved in operating BFL - far from it.

Also, who says they knew they had little hope of pulling off a real device?  Everything they've said indicates that they have had MUCH hope (one might even say confidence) of pulling off a real device.  Where are you getting this idea that, just because thermal limits are exceeded on one type of chip package, they would just throw in the towel and say it couldn't be done?

[Fuzzy]

Well, if I were to put money on which group would ship an ASIC unit first, I'd pick the only one that's ever shipped mining hardware before.

Which one is this mythical only one?

BTCFPGA?
Icarus FPGA?
Cairnsmore FPGA?
Quadminer FPGA?

Damn' didn't know they all announced ASICs, must've missed that day.

[smoothie]

If BFL wanted to silence their critics. All they would really need is show a working prototype.

CES would have been a perfect opportunity for them to do this. But no, they brought box filled with fans and a Nexus 7 to "demo".

[tbcoin]

If BFL wanted to silence their critics. All they would really need is show a working prototype.

CES would have been a perfect opportunity for them to do this. But no, they brought box filled with fans and a Nexus 7 to "demo".

A beautiful empty box filled with 

[Third Way]

Since when is doing a con job ever the "logical path"??  

When that's what you have decided that you want to do? When all you care about is fleecing money out of your "customers"

BTCFPGA?
Icarus FPGA?
Cairnsmore FPGA?
Quadminer FPGA?

Are these people also "for real"?

If BFL wanted to silence their critics. All they would really need is show a working prototype.

CES would have been a perfect opportunity for them to do this. But no, they brought box filled with fans and a Nexus 7 to "demo".

I agree here. I understand the need to keep "market secrets"while trying to monopolize on being the first one in the market to actually ship out a product but not even a demo has been shown.

[smoothie]

Since when is doing a con job ever the "logical path"??  

When that's what you have decided that you want to do? When all you care about is fleecing money out of your "customers"

BTCFPGA?
Icarus FPGA?
Cairnsmore FPGA?
Quadminer FPGA?

Are these people also "for real"?

If BFL wanted to silence their critics. All they would really need is show a working prototype.

CES would have been a perfect opportunity for them to do this. But no, they brought box filled with fans and a Nexus 7 to "demo".

I agree here. I understand the need to keep "market secrets"while trying to monopolize on being the first one in the market to actually ship out a product but not even a demo has been shown.

And that is the ironic thing. They claim they don't want competitiors to figure out their secrets.

A demo would not reveal much other than a working product. They could point the prototype to one of the publicly available mining pools and have the operator of the pool verify the hashrate that they are pulling.

Instead all we get are more excuses and no evidence that they even have a working device.

[tvbcof]

I've seen nothing solid which invalidates the hypothesis that BFL is 100% scam.  At this point I lean to this hypothesis as the one which explains the most observations, and makes the most sense operationally.

...

Since when is doing a con job ever the "logical path"??  I would never consider scamming people as being a logical path no matter how much money is involved.  My hope would be that the vast majority of the rest of the world would feel the same.  Obviously, there is Sonny, but he is not the only one involved in operating BFL - far from it.

...

I thought we agreed to dis-agree?  But since we are here...

If you expect scammers to be irrational, illogical, or stupid, I anticipate that you'll find yourself scammed repeatedly.  There are a lot of adjectives with negative connotations which one may use to describe the typical scammer but these three are not among them.

[smoothie]

I've seen nothing solid which invalidates the hypothesis that BFL is 100% scam.  At this point I lean to this hypothesis as the one which explains the most observations, and makes the most sense operationally.

...

Since when is doing a con job ever the "logical path"??  I would never consider scamming people as being a logical path no matter how much money is involved.  My hope would be that the vast majority of the rest of the world would feel the same.  Obviously, there is Sonny, but he is not the only one involved in operating BFL - far from it.

...

I thought we agreed to dis-agree?  But since we are here...

If you expect scammers to be irrational, illogical, or stupid, I anticipate that you'll find yourself scammed repeatedly.  There are a lot of adjectives with negative connotations which one may use to describe the typical scammer but these three are not among them.

That's the idea. I believe BFL started with good intentions. Then when unforseen things came up they tried to delay. As more unforeseen things came up they had to keep to their story otherwise the jig would be up.

[SgtSpike]

They don't have a working demo, otherwise they would show it.  I thought this was a well-established point already?  They have confirmed that the ASICs worked in QFN packaging, but then they killed the samples while stress testing them for harsh environments.  Now, they are confident enough that the chips will continue to work in the new package that they are creating them all at the same time (without samples), and will probably showcase demo units days before they ship out to customers.

I've seen nothing solid which invalidates the hypothesis that BFL is 100% scam.  At this point I lean to this hypothesis as the one which explains the most observations, and makes the most sense operationally.

...

Since when is doing a con job ever the "logical path"??  I would never consider scamming people as being a logical path no matter how much money is involved.  My hope would be that the vast majority of the rest of the world would feel the same.  Obviously, there is Sonny, but he is not the only one involved in operating BFL - far from it.

...

I thought we agreed to dis-agree?  But since we are here...

If you expect scammers to be irrational, illogical, or stupid, I anticipate that you'll find yourself scammed repeatedly.  There are a lot of adjectives with negative connotations which one may use to describe the typical scammer but these three are not among them.

Maybe so - I've forgotten who all I am talking to.  

[greyhawk]

Well, if I were to put money on which group would ship an ASIC unit first, I'd pick the only one that's ever shipped mining hardware before.

Which one is this mythical only one?

BTCFPGA?
Icarus FPGA?
Cairnsmore FPGA?
Quadminer FPGA?

Damn' didn't know they all announced ASICs, must've missed that day.

BTCFPGA/Quadminer -> bASIC

Icarus -> Avalon

[DoomDumas]

About overheating chips.. packages, board overheat etc...

Think about GPU devices..  I dont know any other application / game that can make a GPU heating as much as hashing.. I think hashing is very hard on chips.  Simulations and stuff like that may be based on known uses of chips.   As hashing is quite hard/extensive on chips, maybe simulations dont account for that kind of very extensive use of a chip.  

So, my bet is that in real life, asics hashing heats much more than the simulation shows.

just my tought