[Archive] BFL trolling museum

[Korbman]

Cancellations have taken their toll. BFL is only ordering 10,000 chips, so well under 75 TH/s is due to be shipped in the first batch.

Josh has said that the reduction in the number of chips in the first batch is due to the design changes - they'll get less chips per wafer with the upgraded design.

We have no idea what specs any ASIC vendor will actually ship with.  We also have no idea how much - if any - disabled capacity each vendor will have.

Hopefully we'll get to see the specs for Avalon's device soon.

[1713569579]

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[1713569579]

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[Miner99er]

100,000,000 Difficulty before Jan 1st, 2014?

Please pass whatever the hell you got off silkroad.

Where the hell are we getting 730 TH of mining power?

Avalon add's 30, BFL has 55-75 (preordered), Basic has in march (iffy), drop 20 from GPU miners exiting the scene or going to Litecoin.

[repentance]

Hopefully we'll get to see the specs for Avalon's device soon.

BFL has said that they'll match the performance of any vendor who ships before them.  I believe that all vendors will ship with reserve capacity which can be enabled at a later date vis firmware updates (remember that when BFL initially upped their specs they said they'd originally intended to make that increased performance available to their customers via a firmware update after shipping).

I guess the interesting question is how long this first generation of ASICs can be kept profitable enough to stimulate ongoing sales.  Are we going to see a dramatic drop in unit price within 12 months or will vendors be forced to produce second generation products much sooner than they'd planned. 

Getting ASICs to market isn't the endgame.  It's only the beginning really.

[jamesg]

100,000,000 Difficulty before Jan 1st, 2014?

Please pass whatever the hell you got off silkroad.

I would definitely say that if you are not planning to be profitable at diff 100m or greater, than you have no clue about what's coming.

Where the hell are we getting 730 TH of mining power?

Once initial pre-orders are shipped out, purchasing will continue until profitability calculators are no longer "gold rush" 6-8mo. What happens then? ASIC manufacturers lower their prices because they have a shit ton of chips, PCBs, etc laying around doing nothing.

Avalon add's 30, BFL has 55-75 (preordered), Basic has in march (iffy), drop 20 from GPU miners exiting the scene or going to Litecoin.

If Avalon's website is any clue, they will soon have the capacity to start delivering 30Th per week.....

[spiccioli]

If Avalon's website is any clue, they will soon have the capacity to start delivering 30Th per week.....

true, but at a certain point in time adding 30 TH to one's mining farm gives a negative return, I mean, you end up paying more in electricity than you get from mining.

there is not an infinitely available mining capacity, it is constrained by electricity costs.

IMHO.

spiccioli

[Brunic]

I would definitely say that if you are not planning to be profitable at diff 100m or greater, than you have no clue about what's coming.

This! This this this this.

For one purchase of around 1500$, you get more hashpower than like 90% of all the GPU farms out there. People don't seem to realize how the jump from GPU to ASIC is completely insane.

[Nemesis]

If Avalon's website is any clue, they will soon have the capacity to start delivering 30Th per week.....

Did you order from Avalon? I'm curious.

[becoin]

because they have a shit ton of chips, PCBs, etc laying around doing nothing.

Are you so rich to afford your money printing press laying around doing nothing?

[creativex]

because they have a shit ton of chips, PCBs, etc laying around doing nothing.

Are you so rich to afford your money printing press laying around doing nothing?

Nah he had others pay for the gear and he's screwing them.

[smoothie]

because they have a shit ton of chips, PCBs, etc laying around doing nothing.

Are you so rich to afford your money printing press laying around doing nothing?

Nah he had others pay for the gear and he's screwing them.

Yup from what I am aware of, giga ordered 4 BFL mini rigs.

He must be pissed at how long it is taking to get them delivered and running. LOL!

Not to mention he didn't pay for it....the people in his 'mining company' did.

[fcmatt]

because they have a shit ton of chips, PCBs, etc laying around doing nothing.

Are you so rich to afford your money printing press laying around doing nothing?

Nah he had others pay for the gear and he's screwing them.

Yup from what I am aware of, giga ordered 4 BFL mini rigs.

He must be pissed at how long it is taking to get them delivered and running. LOL!

Not to mention he didn't pay for it....the people in his 'mining company' did.

This by far was the best con here in my mind. The one where ppl were screwed and all the while they thought it was a good thing. Heck.. There is still some people left still willing to give him more money for a negative return.

[SgtSpike]

because they have a shit ton of chips, PCBs, etc laying around doing nothing.

Are you so rich to afford your money printing press laying around doing nothing?

Nah he had others pay for the gear and he's screwing them.

Yup from what I am aware of, giga ordered 4 BFL mini rigs.

He must be pissed at how long it is taking to get them delivered and running. LOL!

Not to mention he didn't pay for it....the people in his 'mining company' did.

This by far was the best con here in my mind. The one where ppl were screwed and all the while they thought it was a good thing. Heck.. There is still some people left still willing to give him more money for a negative return.

Who is getting a negative return?

[jamesg]

If Avalon's website is any clue, they will soon have the capacity to start delivering 30Th per week.....

true, but at a certain point in time adding 30 TH to one's mining farm gives a negative return, I mean, you end up paying more in electricity than you get from mining.

there is not an infinitely available mining capacity, it is constrained by electricity costs.

IMHO.

spiccioli

While you are correct that there is no an infinite capacity the network can handle, it does change based off of the pricing of the equipment. So all equipment is selling at $20/Gh, we'd probably see a 800Th network at some point over the next year. If the manufacturers slash pricing in half, we could easily see a doubling of the hashrate to 1.6Exh simply because the break even calculations have to be adjusted.

[Monster Tent]

100,000,000 Difficulty before Jan 1st, 2014?

Please pass whatever the hell you got off silkroad.

I would definitely say that if you are not planning to be profitable at diff 100m or greater, than you have no clue about what's coming.

Where the hell are we getting 730 TH of mining power?

Once initial pre-orders are shipped out, purchasing will continue until profitability calculators are no longer "gold rush" 6-8mo. What happens then? ASIC manufacturers lower their prices because they have a shit ton of chips, PCBs, etc laying around doing nothing.

Avalon add's 30, BFL has 55-75 (preordered), Basic has in march (iffy), drop 20 from GPU miners exiting the scene or going to Litecoin.

If Avalon's website is any clue, they will soon have the capacity to start delivering 30Th per week.....

Its easy to be profitable when everyone else is paying for your hardware and you are taking 30% of the mining output in fees.

[dserrano5]

we'd probably see a 800Th network at some point over the next year. If the manufacturers slash pricing in half, we could easily see a doubling of the hashrate to 1.6Exh simply because the break even calculations have to be adjusted.

Following tera is peta, so you actually mean 1.6Ph, right?

[organofcorti]

100,000,000 Difficulty before Jan 1st, 2014?

Please pass whatever the hell you got off silkroad.

I would definitely say that if you are not planning to be profitable at diff 100m or greater, than you have no clue about what's coming.

Where the hell are we getting 730 TH of mining power?

Once initial pre-orders are shipped out, purchasing will continue until profitability calculators are no longer "gold rush" 6-8mo. What happens then? ASIC manufacturers lower their prices because they have a shit ton of chips, PCBs, etc laying around doing nothing.

Avalon add's 30, BFL has 55-75 (preordered), Basic has in march (iffy), drop 20 from GPU miners exiting the scene or going to Litecoin.

If Avalon's website is any clue, they will soon have the capacity to start delivering 30Th per week.....

Its easy to be profitable when everyone else is paying for your hardware and you are taking 30% of the mining output in fees.

Non sequitur.

[Korbman]

While you are correct that there is no an infinite capacity the network can handle, it does change based off of the pricing of the equipment. So all equipment is selling at $20/Gh, we'd probably see a 800Th network at some point over the next year. If the manufacturers slash pricing in half, we could easily see a doubling of the hashrate to 1.6Exh simply because the break even calculations have to be adjusted.

Umm...where are you guys getting your figures? I see no math, only speculation...

Given the current data at hand (i.e. Avalon at this point), prices are sitting at $25/GH for all future orders. So your 800TH/s prediction requires Avalon to sell over 13,300 devices. That's a hell of a market share given there's roughly 40,000 workers (+/- 5,000) currently mining (which will obviously plummet once ASICs are in full swing).

Its easy to be profitable when everyone else is paying for your hardware and you are taking 30% of the mining output in fees.

Well, that's just business. Look at what the financial services industry does

[Monster Tent]

If BFL isnt using customers funds why did they not have an option to pay a small deposit instead of having to pay the entire price up front ?

[Fuzzy]

there's roughly 40,000 workers (+/- 5,000) currently mining

Speaking of math, where is this number from? Source?

[repentance]

If BFL isnt using customers funds why did they not have an option to pay a small deposit instead of having to pay the entire price up front ?

Most likely because production was only worthwhile with a guaranteed level of orders and plenty of people won't think twice about losing a small deposit.  Small deposits aren't a great measure of how many people will follow through to complete the sale months later. Having stock sitting around in a warehouse waiting to be sold costs money, which is one reason why so many businesses operate on a "just in time" basis.

Also keep in mind that if 100% of pre-order funds are sitting in a quarantined bank account, interest is being earned on those funds.

Don't get me wrong, I really don't like the pre-order model which has been used by ASIC vendors but there are some reasons why it might be attractive to them.