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Question: Are the price increasing too fast, are we due for a correction ?  (Voting closed: February 02, 2013, 11:56:54 AM)
Yes, the price have increased too quickly, we will soon se it fall to 18ish and stabilize there. - 21 (14.2%)
It will stabilize at 20ish - 44 (29.7%)
It will increase to 22ish, then fall back to 18-19ish - 33 (22.3%)
It will peak to 25 before the end of the day - 19 (12.8%)
We will have a mini crash and some panic, price going down to 16ish before the uptrend resumes - 31 (20.9%)
Total Voters: 148

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Author Topic: Are we due for a correction ?  (Read 2878 times)
meanig
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February 01, 2013, 08:00:49 PM
 #21

Yeah, that's the exact mentality people had at the last $30 bubble.  Didn't work out well for a lot of people......

The 2011 bubble lasted a week. There wasn't time for people to acquire a mentality.
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February 01, 2013, 08:03:10 PM
 #22

Yeah, that's the exact mentality people had at the last $30 bubble.  Didn't work out well for a lot of people......

The 2011 bubble lasted a week. There wasn't time for people to acquire a mentality.

So it's actually worse now or what?  Roll Eyes

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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February 01, 2013, 08:05:47 PM
 #23

now people get enough time (couple of weeks) to get used to $20 before going to $30. so then $20 would be considered a bargain and form a new support. baby steps.

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February 01, 2013, 08:15:11 PM
 #24

Yeah, that's the exact mentality people had at the last $30 bubble.  Didn't work out well for a lot of people......

The 2011 bubble lasted a week. There wasn't time for people to acquire a mentality.

So it's actually worse now or what?  Roll Eyes

Volume traded was higher, but that's maybe only because Bitcoins were considered play money then?

I feel uneasy about the current low volume, but maybe I've got it wrong. I can be that more are clinging to their coins, which suggest higher prices?

The 0.5% Gox fee is now equivalent to $0.1 price difference, so if people were day trading as usual for profit, we would see larger swings at this price level.

A lot of traders are long and won't trade out of fear of being left behind.



 
 
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meanig
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February 01, 2013, 08:16:33 PM
 #25

now people get enough time (couple of weeks) to get used to $20 before going to $30. so then $20 would be considered a bargain and form a new support. baby steps.

Exactly.
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February 01, 2013, 08:19:00 PM
 #26

Yeah, that's the exact mentality people had at the last $30 bubble.  Didn't work out well for a lot of people......

The 2011 bubble lasted a week. There wasn't time for people to acquire a mentality.

So it's actually worse now or what?  Roll Eyes

Volume traded was higher, but that's maybe only because Bitcoins were considered play money then?

I feel uneasy about the current low volume, but maybe I've got it wrong. I can be that more are clinging to their coins, which suggest higher prices?

The 0.5% Gox fee is now equivalent to $0.1 price difference, so if people were day trading as usual for profit, we would see larger swings at this price level.

A lot of traders are long and won't trade out of fear of being left behind.



Ok confirmed, it is worse.
What do you think will those same traders do in a prolonged correction?

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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February 01, 2013, 10:29:56 PM
 #27

Yeah, that's the exact mentality people had at the last $30 bubble.  Didn't work out well for a lot of people......

The 2011 bubble lasted a week. There wasn't time for people to acquire a mentality.

So it's actually worse now or what?  Roll Eyes

Volume traded was higher, but that's maybe only because Bitcoins were considered play money then?

I feel uneasy about the current low volume, but maybe I've got it wrong. I can be that more are clinging to their coins, which suggest higher prices?

The 0.5% Gox fee is now equivalent to $0.1 price difference, so if people were day trading as usual for profit, we would see larger swings at this price level.

A lot of traders are long and won't trade out of fear of being left behind.



Ok confirmed, it is worse.
What do you think will those same traders do in a prolonged correction?

I'm one of those traders holding instead of playing the swings.  When the prolonged correction comes I will continue to buy a set USD amount with every paycheck as I've been doing for the last 6 months.

What did you have in mind for me to do?

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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February 01, 2013, 10:57:06 PM
 #28

Suppose we spike to 50, correct to 30 and then slowly pass 25.

You still holding? Oh of course you would since it can go back up any time isn't it?  Roll Eyes

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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February 01, 2013, 10:58:37 PM
 #29

Suppose we spike to 50, correct to 30 and then slowly pass 25.

You still holding?

if that happened, as we slowly pass 25$ ill be like

!! BUY BUY BUY !!

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February 01, 2013, 10:58:58 PM
 #30

Going under 20 over the weekend I reckon.
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February 01, 2013, 11:01:35 PM
 #31

Suppose we spike to 50, correct to 30 and then slowly pass 25.

You still holding?

if that happened, as we slowly pass 25$ ill be like

!! BUY BUY BUY !!


And then we move to 20 and crash to 13. And you'll be like NOOOOOOO!  Cheesy

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February 01, 2013, 11:09:34 PM
 #32

I geuss that "normal" assets have a large group of long term investors like pension funds which don't care about swings, only the price in 5 years or longer and they have a deadweight property to them that prevents deep crashes.

That kind of investor is not common in Bitcoin but the number of them increases, as the guy earlier, that said that he deposited a certain amount each month regardless of price.


 
 
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February 01, 2013, 11:10:34 PM
 #33

begin of institutional investors to bitcoin...

Donations: 1JVhKjUKSjBd7fPXQJsBs5P3Yphk38AqPr - TIPS
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February 01, 2013, 11:10:46 PM
 #34


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February 01, 2013, 11:30:24 PM
 #35

Suppose we spike to 50, correct to 30 and then slowly pass 25.

You still holding? Oh of course you would since it can go back up any time isn't it?  Roll Eyes

I don't who this was directed at, but I'll answer anyway.

Yes.

Good boy.

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February 01, 2013, 11:34:28 PM
 #36

price dropping  Cheesy

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February 02, 2013, 12:01:14 AM
 #37

Yeah, that's the exact mentality people had at the last $30 bubble.  Didn't work out well for a lot of people......

The 2011 bubble lasted a week. There wasn't time for people to acquire a mentality.

So it's actually worse now or what?  Roll Eyes

Volume traded was higher, but that's maybe only because Bitcoins were considered play money then?

I feel uneasy about the current low volume, but maybe I've got it wrong. I can be that more are clinging to their coins, which suggest higher prices?

The 0.5% Gox fee is now equivalent to $0.1 price difference, so if people were day trading as usual for profit, we would see larger swings at this price level.

A lot of traders are long and won't trade out of fear of being left behind.



Ok confirmed, it is worse.
What do you think will those same traders do in a prolonged correction?

I'm one of those traders holding instead of playing the swings.  When the prolonged correction comes I will continue to buy a set USD amount with every paycheck as I've been doing for the last 6 months.

What did you have in mind for me to do?

What you're doing, dollar cost averaging, is not at all a bad strategy if you are looking at BTC as a long-term holding.

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February 02, 2013, 12:33:52 AM
 #38

An actual useful poll would have a time frame and options for +/- percentage change over that period.

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February 02, 2013, 09:28:01 AM
 #39

An actual useful poll would have a time frame and options for +/- percentage change over that period.

then make it
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