dooglus
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February 04, 2013, 08:10:07 PM 

Message for all our beta testers.
Please play de BTC we send within 24hs.
We are still waiting for some of the first testers to play
Do you want us to play it all on a single ticket? I realise that's the best value for us, but maybe it's better to vary the testing a bit?

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BitMillions
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BitMillions.com


February 04, 2013, 08:31:30 PM 

Message for all our beta testers.
Please play de BTC we send within 24hs.
We are still waiting for some of the first testers to play
Do you want us to play it all on a single ticket? I realise that's the best value for us, but maybe it's better to vary the testing a bit? Yes, testers need to play the BTC altogether Conditions  If you meet the qualifications please reply to this post with the bitcoin address where you want to receive the FREE ฿ 1 to play.  You will play at BitMillions.com from the same address where you received the FREE ฿ 1 to play.  You should play ฿ 1 altogether and as an additional Grand Opening Promotion, the site will automatically give you 1 free play.
But to continue we need the first testers to play the BTC we sent, we sent 20 BTC already.




SgtSpike
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February 04, 2013, 08:42:15 PM 

Just a quick numberscrunch on the jackpot... I'm assuming a full 4number match will give a person the jackpot? A cursory glance at the draws list shows numbers between 03 and 99  I'm assuming the potential draws are 0099. 0099 = 100 possibilities 100 ^ 4 = 100,000,000 You get 11 draws per 1 BTC so... You have a 1/9,090,909 chance to win 1400 BTC each time you send in 1 BTC. Anyone care to calculate the odds on 1, 2, and 3 matches? I lost all my maths skills after being done with the university for too long.




ShaTwo


February 04, 2013, 08:53:27 PM 

Just a quick numberscrunch on the jackpot... I'm assuming a full 4number match will give a person the jackpot? A cursory glance at the draws list shows numbers between 03 and 99  I'm assuming the potential draws are 0099. 0099 = 100 possibilities 100 ^ 4 = 100,000,000 You get 11 draws per 1 BTC so... You have a 1/9,090,909 chance to win 1400 BTC each time you send in 1 BTC. Anyone care to calculate the odds on 1, 2, and 3 matches? I lost all my maths skills after being done with the university for too long. Here are the Odds of winning 4 Matches Odds : 1 in 3,921,225 3 Matches Odds : 1 in 10,211 2 Matches Odds : 1 in 143 1 Matches Odds : 1 in 6.86 Source: http://www.lottogenie.com/html/odds.htmlYou should divide these Odds for the numbers of ticket. Do if for example you play 1 BTC & get 11 Plays, Odds need to be divided by 11 Ex. With 11 Plays: 4 Matches Odds : 1 in 356,475 3 Matches Odds : 1 in 928.27 2 Matches Odds : 1 in 13 1 Matches Odds : 1 in 0.62 ( Meaning you have 62 % changes of matching one, agains 38 % of matching none )




SysRun


February 04, 2013, 08:55:05 PM 

I imagine if this takes off the jackpot will grow to an astronomical size and be big news when it finally hits. Some will figure out pretty quickly that 2 numbers hitting is better than even money right now. I hope it takes a while longer for everyone to catch on so I can finish my free plays.

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SgtSpike
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February 04, 2013, 08:58:20 PM 

Just a quick numberscrunch on the jackpot... I'm assuming a full 4number match will give a person the jackpot? A cursory glance at the draws list shows numbers between 03 and 99  I'm assuming the potential draws are 0099. 0099 = 100 possibilities 100 ^ 4 = 100,000,000 You get 11 draws per 1 BTC so... You have a 1/9,090,909 chance to win 1400 BTC each time you send in 1 BTC. Anyone care to calculate the odds on 1, 2, and 3 matches? I lost all my maths skills after being done with the university for too long. Here are the Odds of winning 4 Matches Odds : 1 in 3,921,225 3 Matches Odds : 1 in 10,211 2 Matches Odds : 1 in 143 1 Matches Odds : 1 in 6.86 Source: http://www.lottogenie.com/html/odds.htmlI'm curious what the calculation is... but those odds are per draw, so per 0.1 BTC, you have a 3,921,225 chance of winning. I didn't take into account the fact that the same number cannot be used more than once, so that would make the calculation 100 * 99 * 98 * 97, but even that is still 94,109,400. Where does 3,921,225 come from?




ShaTwo


February 04, 2013, 09:15:21 PM Last edit: February 04, 2013, 09:28:22 PM by ShaTwo 

I imagine if this takes off the jackpot will grow to an astronomical size and be big news when it finally hits. Some will figure out pretty quickly that 2 numbers hitting is better than even money right now. I hope it takes a while longer for everyone to catch on so I can finish my free plays. If you check on the second message, I posted the results of our simulations, the Jackpot could get up to 100.000 BTC or more! So if you take into consideration that: State Loteries 40% Goverment & Administration Fees (*1)  30% Lump Sum Deduction (*2)  43% Goverment Taxes Deduction (*2) Player Paid $10.000.000. in Tickets JackPot is $6.000.000. Paid as Lump Sum: $3.900.000. After Taxes: $2.223.000 BitMillionsPlayer Paid BTC 500.000. in Tickets JackPot is BTC 465.000 Is fully paid as Lump Sump & with no Tax Deductions ( Each Player is responsable for reporting to his Tax Jurisdiction ) In SumaryAt same amount of Bets BitMillions will Paid: BTC 450.000 ( $9.300.000 ) State Loteries Paid: $2.223.000 Of course this is a basic example, since there is Sale Taxes, Smaller Jackpots, etc, that are not tacked into consideration. And we are not even talking about the transparency and the Provably Fair Winning Number that make it imposible to the operator to cheat on the results. Sources:(*1) http://www.ncsl.org/issuesresearch/econ/lotterypayoutsandstaterevenue2010.aspx(*2) http://www.forbes.com/sites/janetnovack/2012/08/15/howmuchtaxwillyouoweonthat320millionpowerballjackpot/Disclamer: Since we only charge in Lossing Bets, and chances of matching 1 are 1 in 6.86 we estimate that the house fee is around 7% and not 10%




ShaTwo


February 04, 2013, 09:16:39 PM 

I didn't take into account the fact that the same number cannot be used more than once, so that would make the calculation 100 * 99 * 98 * 97, but even that is still 94,109,400. Where does 3,921,225 come from?
Read http://www.wikihow.com/CalculateOdds




SgtSpike
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February 04, 2013, 09:27:01 PM 

I didn't take into account the fact that the same number cannot be used more than once, so that would make the calculation 100 * 99 * 98 * 97, but even that is still 94,109,400. Where does 3,921,225 come from?
Read http://www.wikihow.com/CalculateOddsThat doesn't explain the mathematics of multinumber draws. But, I just remembered where I went wrong. The first draw can match any of the four picked numbers. So it has a 4/100 (or 1/25) chance of matching. Not sure how to extrapolate the rest of the chances though, it gets complicated. EDIT: Also, I do hope you are successful and eventually reach a large jackpot...!




Luno


February 04, 2013, 09:36:58 PM 

Okay tried it out:
What i would like added is: A wizzard with clickable numbers and a selection of the number of draws wanted, to generate the exact amount to be payed. Fiddeling with decimals and making sure the amount is divisible with 0.10, is still too neerdy.
Instead of the auto betting feature, if you deposit an amount with "oooooo" decimals, you could implement that the wizzard pops up suggesting the last numbers played, based on your previous bet from that address.
Generally I like the look and feel of your site and the level of info you can get on your bets if you click around, without cluttering the main page with menus.
So a lot better than SatoshiDice, but remember this is not a gambling site to get Bitcoiners to play more, it's a site to make gamblers use Bitcoin more.
Thanks for the experience
Luno




AmDD
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February 04, 2013, 09:41:25 PM 

How do the free plays work? My ticket shows 3 pending free plays but Im not sure if I really won them or not. My ticket: https://bitmillions.com/address/1Q6RiGqbWU92gsfeCXraKGz6rbtBqFJrb9clicking "Use them before Expiration!" does nothing.

BTC tip jar: 18EKpbrcXxbpzAZv3T58ccGcVis7W7JR9w LTC tip jar: Lgp8ERykAgx6Q8NdMqpi5vnVoUMD2hYn2a



BitMillions
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February 04, 2013, 10:21:38 PM 

IMPORTANT
We are closing the Beta Testing Program until all beta testers have played the FREE BTC.
We will contact the beta testers that already left a message but couldn't play, to try our site in a few days, but for the moment we won't be accepting any new beta tester.




SysRun


February 04, 2013, 10:27:33 PM 

What if someone like a pool owner decides to hold on to a solved block for a few seconds while they purchase a ticket?

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SgtSpike
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February 04, 2013, 10:30:22 PM 

What if someone like a pool owner decides to hold on to a solved block for a few seconds while they purchase a ticket?
In order to purchase a ticket, they have to send funds to the site. In order to send funds to the site, a block must be solved. They would have to include the winning numbers in the block they solve, which they wouldn't know until they solved the block. There'd be no way to cheat the system in this way.




BitMillions
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February 04, 2013, 10:30:29 PM 

Okay tried it out:
What i would like added is: A wizzard with clickable numbers and a selection of the number of draws wanted, to generate the exact amount to be payed. Fiddeling with decimals and making sure the amount is divisible with 0.10, is still too neerdy.
Instead of the auto betting feature, if you deposit an amount with "oooooo" decimals, you could implement that the wizzard pops up suggesting the last numbers played, based on your previous bet from that address.
Generally I like the look and feel of your site and the level of info you can get on your bets if you click around, without cluttering the main page with menus.
So a lot better than SatoshiDice, but remember this is not a gambling site to get Bitcoiners to play more, it's a site to make gamblers use Bitcoin more.
Thanks for the experience
Luno
WAY TO GO LUNO!!! YOU JUST WON 17.2503 BTChttps://bitmillions.com/tickets/20c5f454b12b8b5262591ecb06f222754668cc30e4d6da32e686d6404fbb8481:1




ShaTwo


February 04, 2013, 10:35:46 PM 

What i would like added is: A wizzard with clickable numbers and a selection of the number of draws wanted, to generate the exact amount to be payed. Fiddeling with decimals and making sure the amount is divisible with 0.10, is still too neerdy.
Instead of the auto betting feature, if you deposit an amount with "oooooo" decimals, you could implement that the wizzard pops up suggesting the last numbers played, based on your previous bet from that address.
Did you see buy ticket popup we have now? Don't you think this popup accomplish just that?




SysRun


February 04, 2013, 10:47:33 PM 

I'm unclear about how to reclaim "free plays pending". I'm up about 5.5BTC, thanks guys!

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SgtSpike
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February 04, 2013, 10:58:52 PM 

Since I prematurely reviewed the site, I'll update: Beta tester: 1JR66i29FDEDZ1rJfWZnNaN6ourw1Uzmxu EDIT: Ok, my first comment: I was confused as to what I was supposed to do after sending money to my ticket. I didn't want to close the "Purchase your Ticket" dialog, because I wasn't sure if I needed to keep it open until something happened. Turns out, I didn't need to do anything but close it out and add my transaction ID to the end of the URL. A bit cumbersome. UPDATE: You should still add a message about what to do after sending the money to the ticket.My suggestion is to have your site actively search out a transaction to the particular address, and as soon as a transaction is detected, use some AJAX magic to create a very obvious link to the winnings page ( http://bitmillions.com/tickets/1498ae78a6eb231b0512f942409f80e6f6ee1fefb1044429e99f4d3665eff9fe) (Not sure if you've done this since the first time I played)If not that, then at least say something along the lines of "As soon as you send payment, close this dialog and search for your address to find your tickets" Also, I tried finding my ticket by searching for the payto address. It says "0 tickets found". (EDIT2: just figured out that I have to search for my send from address) Also, the address page (http://bitmillions.com/address/1HSDNZYfcevZBNCZjj4y5wyxzbc79a6y32#) says "5 Free Plays Found! Some will expire soon! Click Here to Learn How to Redeem Your Free Plays!", but when I click on it, nothing happens. Fixed!All of this said, it's definitely one of the most polished Bitcoinonly sites I've seen at its launch. Nicely done! Nothing really new to add to this since my previous play. I'm unclear about how to reclaim "free plays pending". I'm up about 5.5BTC, thanks guys!
From the FAQ: "You can use your Free Plays any time after they have been confirmed. Once confirmed, they will appear in all your tickets and also in the detail page of all your bets. For each Free Play you want to use, you have to play 1 BTC. For instance, if you want to use four Free Plays, you have to bet 4 BTC."





dooglus
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February 04, 2013, 11:37:41 PM Last edit: February 04, 2013, 11:58:18 PM by dooglus 

I'm curious what the calculation is... but those odds are per draw, so per 0.1 BTC, you have a 3,921,225 chance of winning.
I didn't take into account the fact that the same number cannot be used more than once, so that would make the calculation 100 * 99 * 98 * 97, but even that is still 94,109,400. Where does 3,921,225 come from?
I was curious too, so I played with a Python script to work it out... #!/usr/bin/env python
def factorial(x): if x < 2: return 1 return x * factorial(x  1)
def p(n, k): return factorial(n) / factorial(n  k)
def c(n, k): return p(n, k) / factorial(k)
max = 100 # how many different numbers there are pick = 4 # how many numbers we get to pick
all = p(max, pick) for matched in range(pick+1): # how many of our numbers are matched unmatched = pick  matched # how many of our numbers aren't matched bad = max  pick # bad numbers for us # (which of our numbers are going to match) * (which positions they're in) * (what the nonmatching numbers will be) ways = c(pick, matched) * p(pick, matched) * p(bad, unmatched) print "match %d : %8d / %8d = %8.5f%% or 1 in %f" % (matched, ways, all, ways*100.0/all, float(all)/ways)
$ ./millions.py match 0 : 79727040 / 94109400 = 84.71740% or 1 in 1.180395 match 1 : 13716480 / 94109400 = 14.57504% or 1 in 6.861046 match 2 : 656640 / 94109400 = 0.69774% or 1 in 143.319627 match 3 : 9216 / 94109400 = 0.00979% or 1 in 10211.523438 match 4 : 24 / 94109400 = 0.00003% or 1 in 3921225.000000 $
Edit: think about how many different orders there are that you could write down your 4 numbers once you've picked them. There are 4 ways of picking which of the 4 to put first. For each of those 4 selections there are 3 choices for what to put 2nd. So there are 4*3 = 12 ways of selecting the first two numbers. And for each of those there are 2 ways of ordering the last 2 numbers, giving a total of 4*3*2*1 = 24 ways of listing your 4 numbers. There are 100*99*98*97 different possible draws, if we treat different orders as different draws. It's like you have 24 different tickets in a game where order matters. So your probability of winning the jackpot is (4*3*2*1) / (100*99*98*97). Now, how many ways of matching 3 numbers are there? Well, there are 4 (A) different ways to pick which 3 numbers are going to match (because there are 4 ways of picking which number isn't going to match). For each of these 4 sets of 3 matching numbers, there are 4 (B) ways of choosing which position isn't going to match, and 3*2*1 = 6 (C) ways of ordering the 3 numbers in the other 3 positions. Finally there are 96 (D) choices for what the nonmatching number is going to be. In total that makes A*B*C*D = 4*4*6*96 = 9216 ways to match 3 numbers. So the probability of matching 3 numbers is 9216 / (100*99*98*97). Etc.

JustDice  ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████  Play or Invest  ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████  1% House Edge 



