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Author Topic: BTC will be around 5kUSD in the end of June  (Read 2156 times)
zimmah
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June 02, 2016, 02:40:22 PM
 #41

$5k that soon might not be even be desirable. It would indicate tremendous overheating of the whole ecosystem.
For once, if you would want to sell out some, you won't be able to do it fast.
Coinbase, for example, has 50K max (it would be just 10 coins).
If you start doing multiple 50K all of a sudden, I am pretty sure that your account could be frozen before they figure out what is going on.
Too massive (in $$) withdrawals might be problematic.
There is not much to buy with bitcoin directly (without conversion) for that kind of $$ equivalent (maybe Tesla?).
Network would be completely stuffed as well, fees might go up to $1-10 (good for miners) as people would withdraw probably $ billions equivalent.
At 5k total current market cap would be $80 bil, so if even 10% of holders would want to sell, they would need significant buying pressure to be able to do it.
It would still be cool, though  Smiley


you're talking as if 10 coins is a small amount, it's not.

there's about 100,000 people in the world who even have 10 bitcoin, and after the next halving (in about 5 weeks) only 12.5 new coins will be generated every 10 minutes, IN THE ENTIRE WORLD.

So basically if you divide the newly generated coins that's 0.0002815 satoshi per second per person. That is 739.8 satoshi per month per person.

10 bitcoin is a very large amount.

once people start to realize how big 1 bitcoin is, then they will truly understand how undervalued bitcoin is right now.

Btw fees are based on the amount of bytes you need, not the amount of bitcoin you send.
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June 02, 2016, 02:55:25 PM
 #42

$5k that soon might not be even be desirable. It would indicate tremendous overheating of the whole ecosystem.
For once, if you would want to sell out some, you won't be able to do it fast.
Coinbase, for example, has 50K max (it would be just 10 coins).
If you start doing multiple 50K all of a sudden, I am pretty sure that your account could be frozen before they figure out what is going on.
Too massive (in $$) withdrawals might be problematic.
There is not much to buy with bitcoin directly (without conversion) for that kind of $$ equivalent (maybe Tesla?).
Network would be completely stuffed as well, fees might go up to $1-10 (good for miners) as people would withdraw probably $ billions equivalent.
At 5k total current market cap would be $80 bil, so if even 10% of holders would want to sell, they would need significant buying pressure to be able to do it.
It would still be cool, though  Smiley


you're talking as if 10 coins is a small amount, it's not.

there's about 100,000 people in the world who even have 10 bitcoin, and after the next halving (in about 5 weeks) only 12.5 new coins will be generated every 10 minutes, IN THE ENTIRE WORLD.

So basically if you divide the newly generated coins that's 0.0002815 satoshi per second per person. That is 739.8 satoshi per month per person.

10 bitcoin is a very large amount.

once people start to realize how big 1 bitcoin is, then they will truly understand how undervalued bitcoin is right now.

Btw fees are based on the amount of bytes you need, not the amount of bitcoin you send.

Of course, 10 btc is a large amount, but people who got onboard early probably have tens of thou of btcs and they held at $1000, but maybe will sell at $5000.
I was talking about the congestion that this sell would cause.
With respect to fees, i also was talking about how large price moves will cause large number of transactions, which would in turn cause high fees because people would be competing for the fast transaction completion. If you sell $10-50K worth of btc, would you really care about transaction being done in 10min as a priority for you vs cost of $1 instead of typical $5-15c.
Additionally, I am not sure how many people actually have 10btc-statistics that I have seen is old and I doubt that it is just 100K.

BTW, here is mostly unrelated, but interesting snippet: You can get bitcoin with your morning newspaper down under.
http://mashable.com/2016/06/02/bitcoin-newsagency-australia/#mY2Vas7m_ZqU
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