Inflation and Deflation of Price and Money Supply

[kaliukvictoriya42]

An excellent post that I'll sticky so people can learn from.

[1714021967]

1714021967

[1714021967]

1714021967

[1714021967]

1714021967

[1714021967]

1714021967

[Anhmai]

An area dedicated to discussing the differences of these two terms and the theories supporting them.

I'm looking forward to an in-depth discussion on the subject! I've noticed that confusion between the two seems to come up quite a bit on the forum, and thought it may be reasonable to dedicate a thread on the matter.

Pulled from a discussion in Wall Observer


Price-Deflation is what you are used to hearing about in Bitcoin. That term is used to describe the prices of goods/services as they decrease, because the value of Bitcoin goes up.

Price-Inflation is the opposite. When prices of goods/services increase because the value of Bitcoin goes down.

So, when dealing with Price-Inflation or Deflation, there is an inverse relationship of price and value, in regard to goods/services and Bitcoin.

Example: As the Bitcoin price goes from $10 to $20, the prices of goods/services goes down from 20BTC to 10BTC. As the Bitcoin price goes from $20 to $10, the prices of goods/services goes from 10BTC to 20BTC!

Why does the price of Bitcoin go up and down? The price of BTC goes up and down based on the exchange rate, or market price, which is set by buyers and sellers, or traders. They directly trade the Bitcoin currency with all sorts of other currency, and even some with gold; the most popular being the USD (US dollar). They set the price when executing orders to buy or sell. I will get into the actual reason of why the price fluctuates in the last section.


Now that we've gone over PRICE Inflation and Deflation (which honestly, to me, is a term made popular by Keynesian's to hide the real facts, as price inflation/deflation is simply the market exchange rate, reflective of the money supply into a currency from itself and other currencies), let's go over the REAL inflation/deflation of a currency (otherwise known by many as Monetary Inflation).

MoneySupply-Inflation is when the value of Bitcoin decreases when the total supply of Bitcoin increases. In our current state, this is at a generation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes.

MoneySupply-Deflation will essentially never occur. It is when the value of Bitcoin increases when the total supply of Bitcoin decreases. This may happen, say, when someone loses their private key and all the BTC associated with it are lost. This effectively "makes the rest of us richer". That being said, there is a SET DECREASE in the generation rate of BTC, so you have sort of a "deflationary effect" in the value, as long as more exchange occurs for BTC at a rate which is faster than that set generation rate.

When all 21 million coins are produced, the MoneySupply will be neutral, and the value will continue to increase (prices will decrease, consequently), as long as people continue to exchange in BTC.

This leads me to the last section.


What determines the PRICE of Bitcoin? The VALUE of Bitcoin at a particular moment.

What determines the VALUE of Bitcoin? The SUPPLY and DEMAND of Bitcoin in the economy.

What determines the SUPPLY of Bitcoin? Currently, the MoneySupply-Inflation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes, and traders willing to SELL Bitcoin to BUYERS in exchange for other supplies of money (currencies).

What determines the DEMAND of Bitcoin? Traders willing to BUY Bitcoin from SELLERS in exchange for other currencies.


Therefore: BUYERS, SELLERS, and MONEYSUPPLY-INFLATION (miners) determine the VALUE of Bitcoin, which determines the PRICE of BTC as BUYERS and SELLERS trade based on that VALUE (or supply and demand) of Bitcoin.


We don't exactly know the totality of the supply and demand. Sure, we could try and aggregate data from all the exchanges, but we will never be accurate as there are exchanges which can not be accounted for (OTC). The cool thing is that we DO know the MoneySupply rate, and we DO know the exchange rate. From this, we can determine a real value of Bitcoin when simply multiplying the two factors; a sort of inflation-adjusted view of the currency.

Effectively, the quantitative analysis of supply and demand is really what the currency exchange traders attempt to accurately determine which is conveyed through buying and selling of Bitcoin, setting a VALUE via the PRICED exchange rate of the currency. On a side note, most of the big Market Makers (FX Traders) use this price movement as a way to make a profitable living, as well. Especially when price fluctuations are a consequence of hype or fear (bubbles, cliffs), not factual supply/demand data, and are wildly out of the real price range.

Thus, if you analyze the proper macroeconomic data in an attempt to forecast future DEMAND for more Bitcoin (price increase), you will realize some very interesting things, and have a more accurate picture of where the price is going...

Happy trading!

a post with great content. Hope you have more posts with more useful info. thank you

[hydeevanz]

To be honest, I’ve been curious what is happening in the crypto world every time there is a dump or pump price of bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin and other alternative coins. And through the post above which is the original post made clear things to me. Furthermore, I don’t really much understand the exchange rate because I’m looking for more and I think it will be clear if the comparison between the past and the present of bitcoin price will be considered in the post. However, the knowledge you shared is worth reading for.

[xrenderman]

Keynesian economics is a horrible system, but so far it works the best until we have another implemented

Keynesian economics is not science, it's just form of propaganda. You receive money from government to justify big government and call this economics, ecology etc.

So you mean the Keynesian economics is not exactly as what they said because they're under control of the goverment?

Well if your income are 100% depended on the government you wouldn't say anything to harm it. You don't bite the hand that feeds you. And that alone is enough to really be cautious about information coming from that source.

Also the only modern active alternative school is austrian and they are proven to predict things way better and they have a radically different approach(and the one that actually makes some logical sense).

These are unfair and incorrect views of the Keynesian economics.

Keynes pioneered the study of the economy as an aggregate. It also introduces the idea of disequilibrium and price stickiness, which are occurring themes if you conduct any serious macroeconomic analysis. He also introduced behavioral elements in his formal analysis e.g. money demand equation and term "Animal Spirit". He would have incorporated expectation but the mathematics at his time was not advanced enough to handle that.

The policy prescriptions from Keynes's theory are natural implications of his theory, which remains revolutionary even to this day. The great depression in the late 20s dealt a huge blow to the Austrian school as well as western capitalism in general. It beckoned a response outside the box and Keynes' demand management really was the answer until the 70s. You have to remember that even liberals in the west placed a lot of hope on Communism during the great depression, the vibe was certainly very different from now.

While it is unfortunate that Keynesian economic theories have been politicized to benefit the state power, it is also nature that for a long period of human history big states and institutions exist. The Austrian school was too ahead in its time and the technology was not there until more than a hundred years later. The free market is still an imperfect institution (as correctly realized by Keynes) that is not really free and transparent, central authority is needed to enforce property rights.

So contrary to what you have said, it is Keynesian economics that was radical to the traditional Austrian school. Hell, it is even radical in this day as the neo-liberalism (a politicized descendant of the Austrian School) took over the world from the 90s that led to the tremendous growth of wealth and income inequality.

Government intervention just made great depression tougher and longer. And also here is a quote:

The Great Depression was predicted by several Austrian economists:

In Austria, economist Ludwig von Mises saw the problem developing in its early stages and predicted to his colleagues in 1924 that the large Austrian bank, Creditanstalt, would eventually crash. He wrote a full analysis of Irving Fisher’s monetary views, published in 1928, where he targeted Fisher’s reliance on price indexes as a key vulnerability that would bring about the Great Depression, concluding: "because of the imperfection of the index number, these calculations would necessarily lead in time to errors of very considerable proportions."[2]
F. A. Hayek published several articles in early 1929 in which he predicted the collapse of the American boom.[citation needed] Felix Somary, who like Mises was a student at the University of Vienna, issued several dire warnings in the late 1920s.[citation needed][3]
In America economists Benjamin Anderson and E.C. Harwood also warned that the Federal Reserve policies would cause a crisis, and like Somary, they were largely ignored.[3] Albert H. Wiggin summed up in 1931 that the "depression has been prolonged and not alleviated by delay in making necessary readjustments."[4]

You don't need government to ensure the right of the property. I would say even more - government through all the history was the #1 reason private property rights was violated.

[NicG13]

Bitcoin is the only real money we've had since gold. Excellent thread!

[definitee]

Definitions matter when describing the relationship between changes in the money stock, or total money supply, and inflation. For example, the first definition of inflation given by the American College Dictionary is any increase in the currency not redeemable in specie.

[Shimmiry]

We all know that inflation and deflation are natural that occurs in the market, is this all the factor affecting the price and value of bitcoin? how about now that many country are going to ban bitcoin because of some accusations ?

[nematography]

Thanks my friend for information 

[synthlock]

Bitcoin is the only real money we've had since gold. Excellent thread!

I'd argue it's better than gold in many ways except fungibility.

[Jomari]

The issue to me is that Bitcoin is not readily accessible as a way to reflect market trends and productivity. People squeeze new value of of existing resources and will increase productivity to unlock previously unseen value. So while it is a good store of value bit doesn't suitably reflect the  work of people. This is why I have an interest in scalable lending as a part of the base protocol. It is an internal system to push people to maximize the efficiency of their goods and resources.

This is where the conversation about inflation becomes important. How do you introduce scalable and sustainable lending. Especially with Fiascos like bitconnect clouding the waters.   

Thus, I am curious what peoples perspective is on anonymous and pseudo-anonymous lending.  There have been some attempts to answer this question in the market, but none were truly scalable systems.  What are your thoughts.?

Based on my research, I believe there are three big hurdles to overcome:

• Adverse Selection
• End-Game Issues
• Market Fit

and there is also the additional issue of the risk premium that can be associate with it.  This risk premium is expressed in the interest rate on addition to the typical inflation rate.

I believe it can be done and I outline my theory in the link below. I would love to discuss this seemingly very difficult question. I personally am very interested in this question because it is a way to empower people financially on a global scale. I think if done right it could completely change the game.

https://medium.com/the-digital-reserve/designing-sustainable-pseudo-anonymous-lending-a9350e1dceeb

[Gabriol]

so what do you guys think about price fluctuation in the last year?

[clintballinger]

How to value bitcoin  http://clintballinger.edublogs.org/2017/12/27/bitcoins-and-balance-sheets/

[Seresjen]

but there is no way to know if a person loses their keys, on this side there is no way that bitcoin can increase its value.

[gladiusnl]

so what do you guys think about price fluctuation in the last year?

I think it gonna be really low at the begin of a year and they suddenly raising and hit another new target. Maybe 30k ?

[Prince786]

I think that because the price is low because of the price, many people have bought it in bitcoin but they do not use them, if they do not use Bitcoin, they will not have any value. When you are selling something, then what you sell is bigger than you believe. "That is why trade has always been possible. It is not yet seen whether a good price will be promised in the future.

[mogenesis]

I'm  looking forward to an in-depth discussion on the subject! I've noticed  that confusion between the two seems to come up quite a bit on the blog, and thought it may be reasonable to dedicate a post on the  matter.

[Windybi]

Price inflation is very likely in the virtual currency market. Since it is not evenly distributed around the world, I think there are some people in the hands who have a lot of bitcoins, maybe because these people are so bitcoin market will be more inflationary when they sell out their bitcoin amounts. , and they can also buy large amounts of bitcoin

[rprimism]

so what do you guys think about price fluctuation in the last year?

I think it gonna be really low at the begin of a year and they suddenly raising and hit another new target. Maybe 30k ?

also, towards the end of the year there is an increase

[Ek334433]

An area dedicated to discussing the differences of these two terms and the theories supporting them.

I'm looking forward to an in-depth discussion on the subject! I've noticed that confusion between the two seems to come up quite a bit on the forum, and thought it may be reasonable to dedicate a thread on the matter.

Pulled from a discussion in Wall Observer


Price-Deflation is what you are used to hearing about in Bitcoin. That term is used to describe the prices of goods/services as they decrease, because the value of Bitcoin goes up.

Price-Inflation is the opposite. When prices of goods/services increase because the value of Bitcoin goes down.

So, when dealing with Price-Inflation or Deflation, there is an inverse relationship of price and value, in regard to goods/services and Bitcoin.

Example: As the Bitcoin price goes from $10 to $20, the prices of goods/services goes down from 20BTC to 10BTC. As the Bitcoin price goes from $20 to $10, the prices of goods/services goes from 10BTC to 20BTC!

Why does the price of Bitcoin go up and down? The price of BTC goes up and down based on the exchange rate, or market price, which is set by buyers and sellers, or traders. They directly trade the Bitcoin currency with all sorts of other currency, and even some with gold; the most popular being the USD (US dollar). They set the price when executing orders to buy or sell. I will get into the actual reason of why the price fluctuates in the last section.


Now that we've gone over PRICE Inflation and Deflation (which honestly, to me, is a term made popular by Keynesian's to hide the real facts, as price inflation/deflation is simply the market exchange rate, reflective of the money supply into a currency from itself and other currencies), let's go over the REAL inflation/deflation of a currency (otherwise known by many as Monetary Inflation).

MoneySupply-Inflation is when the value of Bitcoin decreases when the total supply of Bitcoin increases. In our current state, this is at a generation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes.

MoneySupply-Deflation will essentially never occur. It is when the value of Bitcoin increases when the total supply of Bitcoin decreases. This may happen, say, when someone loses their private key and all the BTC associated with it are lost. This effectively "makes the rest of us richer". That being said, there is a SET DECREASE in the generation rate of BTC, so you have sort of a "deflationary effect" in the value, as long as more exchange occurs for BTC at a rate which is faster than that set generation rate.

When all 21 million coins are produced, the MoneySupply will be neutral, and the value will continue to increase (prices will decrease, consequently), as long as people continue to exchange in BTC.

This leads me to the last section.


What determines the PRICE of Bitcoin? The VALUE of Bitcoin at a particular moment.

What determines the VALUE of Bitcoin? The SUPPLY and DEMAND of Bitcoin in the economy.

What determines the SUPPLY of Bitcoin? Currently, the MoneySupply-Inflation rate of 25 BTC every 10 minutes, and traders willing to SELL Bitcoin to BUYERS in exchange for other supplies of money (currencies).

What determines the DEMAND of Bitcoin? Traders willing to BUY Bitcoin from SELLERS in exchange for other currencies.


Therefore: BUYERS, SELLERS, and MONEYSUPPLY-INFLATION (miners) determine the VALUE of Bitcoin, which determines the PRICE of BTC as BUYERS and SELLERS trade based on that VALUE (or supply and demand) of Bitcoin.


We don't exactly know the totality of the supply and demand. Sure, we could try and aggregate data from all the exchanges, but we will never be accurate as there are exchanges which can not be accounted for (OTC). The cool thing is that we DO know the MoneySupply rate, and we DO know the exchange rate. From this, we can determine a real value of Bitcoin when simply multiplying the two factors; a sort of inflation-adjusted view of the currency.

Effectively, the quantitative analysis of supply and demand is really what the currency exchange traders attempt to accurately determine which is conveyed through buying and selling of Bitcoin, setting a VALUE via the PRICED exchange rate of the currency. On a side note, most of the big Market Makers (FX Traders) use this price movement as a way to make a profitable living, as well. Especially when price fluctuations are a consequence of hype or fear (bubbles, cliffs), not factual supply/demand data, and are wildly out of the real price range.

Thus, if you analyze the proper macroeconomic data in an attempt to forecast future DEMAND for more Bitcoin (price increase), you will realize some very interesting things, and have a more accurate picture of where the price is going...

Happy trading!

[lhadygreen]

It's just like the law of supply and demand.