In an other topic I ask what would be the best strategy to profit from the bitcoin crash. A bitcoin crash, but it's at a all time high stupid?! So let me explain why I believe there is a number of reasons what will cause this crash. Also feel free to counter.
Bitcoin vs Fiat money
One of the things people keep telling each other is that bitcoin is so much better than Fiat money. Yet a huge amount of people base the value of bitcoin only of the value compared to Fiat money. This forum is full of messages of people cheering when bitcoin has reached a new all time high, in Fiat money numbers. Also people dream of getting rich and millionaire, again in Fiat money. This brings me to the next point, speculation.
People are in it to increase their purchasing power. The main reason why the BTC price is most commonly referred to in fiat value, is because it's the only meaningful frame of reference we have right now. What other frames of reference are there? Gold? Lamborghinis? Pizzas? One of the main purposes of fiat is to compare the value of assets of different classifications to one another. BTC is no different in this regard. It's about the purchasing power of BTC, not its fiat value. And as of now, its purchasing power can only be meaningfully expressed in fiat.
Speculation
I believe that 99% of people that are joining the bitcoin train now, hope that the Fiat money they invest now will be more worth more in the future. The look at the chart and see it go's up and up. There are just a fixed number of bitcoin, so they will be increase in worth right? No, the current value expressed in Fiat money is because it's a classic bubble. While people keep buying the price will rise, until they start to panic. Lot's of noobs are buying bitcoin right now and guess who are driven by emotion when it go's down? The noobs again, they will panic first.
I'm not 100% sure we're in a classic bubble yet. Noobs will panic the most, for sure, but I think most bitcoins are still in the hands of the old guard, which should bolster the next correction a bit.
Bitcoin is the most destructive force on the planet
Wait whut? Yes I am very sure about this one. Never in history there has be anything that just wasted such an amount of energy and hardware. Just think of the millions of graphic cards that were not used to play a video game or design a 3d building for an architect, no just burned for bitcoin. So much electric energy that is just vaporized in heat that was just waste. And the current network use a ton of energy for just one transaction. We are all about environment and climate, but yet we don't seem to realize this enormous waste.
Banking is the most destructive force on the planet. Never in history there has been anything that just wasted such an amount of human resources. Just think of the millions of bankers that were not educated to become doctors or engineers, no, just wasted on finance.
In my opinion replacing the human resources that are currently stuck in banking with electricity would be a positive tradeoff.
Unstable value
As long as the value is not even near stable it's not a alternative to Fiat money. Why would you buy anything with it as you believe it could be worth double the money next month? Same for the opposite.
Arguably Bitcoin will become more stable once it reaches a sufficient market cap. Retail prices also fluctuate to some extend, yet there's only few cases where people try to time the market, especially with products that satisfy immediate needs.
Alt coins
Are just crap and we know it. While we 'use' bitcoin at least for some stuff, the altcoins are just a way to make money in the shade of bitcoin. There is no value at all in altcoins, but since the noobs want something and can't affort bitcoin (because they can only think in whole bitcoins) the start buying altcoins. And more noobs does, so the price is going up, hooray!
Agreed. Well, some alts arguably offer innovation, but in general I agree with you.
The scam of Trading platforms
I've been following trades on for example Bitfinex, there are people who know how to influence the price for sure. Some big players (you call them whales) who laught at all the noobs while they are just pumping the price to a new high. It's far from transparent.
Agreed. Same goes for the rest of finance though, regardless of regulation. Bitcoin itself, however, is incredibly transparent.
Bad money
They have discovered bitcoin. When bad money comes in, good money runs away. It's an old fact that will apply to bitcoin.
Define bad money? Noobs or bankers?
The actual value
Think about this. Does a single bitcoin is really worth a car? Who is really using it? But so is paper money right? No it's not, we are all using Fiat money. Bitcoin is used by 0.0000000000001% of the people. It's current worth in Fiat money numbers is only a reflection of the greed of humans.
0.0000000000001% of the people would be less than 1/10,000th of a person. I'm fairly confident to say that there are more people using BTC than 1/10,000th of a person. The question of a fair valuation is a tough one though, that's true. Which is why we are seeing the price fluctuations we see right now. It's all part of the price finding process.
But it's kinda sad because the blockchain is an amazing technology. So is the IP protocol btw, but no one has come up to put a price tag an that technology. Thank God, there would be no internet today.
Crypto-currencies can be used freely regardless of their valuation. Without tokens, a blockchain is just a decentralized database. There's better solutions for that.
