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Author Topic: Butterfly labs single SC  (Read 7271 times)
GoldSeal
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February 26, 2013, 04:21:37 AM
 #21

Here's an attempt to ballpark some numbers without using difficulty. If the total hash power increases from 27 GH to maybe 250 GH and we expect approximately 3600 BTC to be minted per day, then I was thinking:

(60/250000)*3600 = 0.864 BTC/day

That one looks correct but the following are off by a factor of 2.  (You have 250Th the same BTC/day as 500TH)


Quote
So for other total hash power estimates, maybe:

(60/500000)*3600 = 0.864 BTC/day     -> expect to average 29 days of work for each block
(60/750000)*3600 = 0.432 BTC/day     -> expect to average 58 days of work for each block
(60/1000000)*3600 = 0.216 BTC/day    -> expect to average 115 days of work for each block
(60/2000000)*3600 = 0.108 BTC/day    -> expect to average 231 days of work for each block

Does this type of math seem realistic? There is the basic assumption that difficulty will adjust to maintain approximately 3600 newly minted coins per day.


Ooops sorry, you are correct. The corrected values should be:

(60/250000)*3600 = 0.864 BTC/day
(60/500000)*3600 = 0.432 BTC/day     -> expect to average 29 days of work for each block
(60/750000)*3600 = 0.288 BTC/day     -> expect to average 58 days of work for each block
(60/1000000)*3600 = 0.216 BTC/day    -> expect to average 115 days of work for each block
(60/2000000)*3600 = 0.108 BTC/day    -> expect to average 231 days of work for each block



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February 26, 2013, 09:53:07 PM
 #22

Looks like something at 60G in May will only make about $15 or less per day. And that's probably an aggressive guess. Something that cost $1500+ whatever crazy shipping cost will take a very long time to pay the device off. 4 months to pay it off, but within those 4 months you will be getting back less...so maybe 6 months to get your money back just to pay for the unit. Maybe at that time you could make a couple dollars a day. That's about it.


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February 27, 2013, 05:38:39 AM
 #23

yep. only way it would make sense for me is if the price of bitcoin keeps rising

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February 28, 2013, 02:14:27 PM
 #24

Yeah the price will have to go up a lot for mining to still be worth it, and if you think the price of BTC will go up, just buy BTC now, and instead of breaking even in 6-12 months, you will be up a lot.

And if the price of BTC goes down to $20/BTC? A lot of unhappy miners, I suspect many would quit.

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DarkBet
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March 04, 2013, 11:29:45 PM
 #25

yep. only way it would make sense for me is if the price of bitcoin keeps rising

I think the same,

And honestly im starting to think that just buying Bitcoins is better, because the window of opportunity will be so little, especially for those who are not early on the lists.

For sure if Bitcoin continues to grow like this there will be major players entering into mining with some China solar-powered warehouse stuff and just price everyone else out. Who knows, that can be happening rite now.

Not to mention the time invested and who knows how stable the products are, imagine if the miner malfunctions or there comes a new product that just owns everything else.

And even if everything "goes according to plan" you might be only even after a year, while the coins you buy could have doubled in value..

im no expert here tho, just guesstimating.
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