OK maybe I am missing something here. This is the way I thought it worked. I submit a transaction, and it gets into the next available block, this could take 10 minutes. At this point it is unconfimed because that block could be an orphan. So I wait for the next block, that could take another 10 minutes. That's where I get the 20 minutes. What is wrong with my logic? Of course it gets worse if the block is orphaned, and some of the heavyweights seem to think that increasing the blocksize will create more orphans. I posted the link about this.
Nope. That's not how it works.
You broadcast a transaction to your peers, and they relay it to their peers, and they relay it to their peers, and so on.
At this point is in unconfirmed because it is not yet in a block.
Some people feel that an unconfirmed transaction is sufficient to feel confident that the transaction is secure and are willing to provide goods or services in exchange for the transaction at this time, others are concerned that there may be a competing transaction that they haven't seen yet and want to wait for more confirmations.
Eventually someone that is a peer with a mining pool (or solo miner) relays your transaction to that pool (or miner). The miners that hear about your transaction may or may not choose to add your transaction to the block they are working on.
At this point is in unconfirmed because it is not yet in a block.
Eventually a miner that has chosen to include your transaction in their block succeeds in solving the block. They broadcast the block to their peers, and they relay it to their peers, and they relay it to their peers, and so on.
At this point, anyone that has received the block (and has not first received any competing block at the same block height) sees your transaction as having 1 confirmation. If this block gets relayed to you and the recipient of your transaction, then you both see it as having 1 confirmation.
Some people feel that 1 confirmation is sufficient to feel confident that the transaction is secure and are willing to provide goods or services in exchange for the transaction at this time, others are concerned that there may be a competing transaction with 1 confirmation in a competing block that they haven't seen yet and want to wait for more confirmations.
If this block is orphaned, and a block with a competing transaction becomes part of the main chain, then they could lose their funds to the scammer.
Eventually this block is either orphaned or another block is mined on top of this block by a miner somewhere. They broadcast the block to their peers, and they relay it to their peers, and they relay it to their peers, and so on.
If the block with your transaction was not orphaned by this block, then anyone that has received the block sees your transaction as having 2 confirmations. If this block gets relayed to you and the recipient of your transaction, then you both see it as having 2 confirmations.
Some people feel that 2 confirmations are sufficient to feel confident that the transaction is secure and are willing to provide goods or services in exchange for the transaction at this time, others are concerned that there may be a competing transaction in a competing set of two blocks that they haven't seen yet and want to wait for more confirmations.
If this set of 2 blocks is orphaned, and a different set of 3 blocks with a competing transaction becomes part of the main chain, then they could lose their funds to the scammer.
Eventually thisset of 2 blocks is either orphaned or another block is mined on top of this block by a miner somewhere. They broadcast the block to their peers, and they relay it to their peers, and they relay it to their peers, and so on.
If the block with your transaction was not orphaned by this block, then anyone that has received the block sees your transaction as having 3 confirmations. If this block gets relayed to you and the recipient of your transaction, then you both see it as having 3 confirmations.
Some people feel that 3 confirmations are sufficient to feel confident that the transaction is secure and are willing to provide goods or services in exchange for the transaction at this time, others are concerned that there may be a competing transaction in a competing set of 3 blocks that they haven't seen yet and want to wait for more confirmations.
If this set of 3 blocks is orphaned, and a different set of 4 blocks with a competing transaction becomes part of the main chain, then they could lose their funds to the scammer.
This process continues with more and more blocks being added to the chain until the recipient feels that they have seen enough new blocks that the risk of orphaning the entire stack is acceptable to them.