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Author Topic: 696 ASICMINER shares for auction  (Read 7064 times)
Namworld
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February 05, 2013, 03:54:13 AM
 #21

---------CURRENT HIGHEST BIDS-----------Amount----Price/Share--
Blazr250.27
ineededausername 6710.26
---------------------------------------------------------
----OUTBID----
iCEBREAKER6960.26
BLFC Jordan6710.25
HorseRider6960.185
dadj6960.15
arij500.11
mb300sd6960.10
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iCEBREAKER
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February 05, 2013, 04:14:17 AM
 #22

What???  I ain't bid .26 for no 696 shares!  More like 25 shares.

Guess being a high roller gives people the wrong idea, that I just throw BTC around like confetti.

This auction is going well, it has plenty of competing bids.

Maybe I should make a thread for competing offers?   

I hear DeadTerra has some ASICMINER he'd like to liquidate andale pronto...if not imma snipe this mofo.   Cool



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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
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February 05, 2013, 04:14:55 AM
 #23

What???  I ain't bid .26 for no 696 shares!  More like 25 shares.

Guess being a high roller gives people the wrong idea, like I just throw BTC around like confetti.

This auction is going well, it has plenty of competing bids.

Maybe I should make a thread for competing offers?   

I hear DeadTerra has some ASICMINER he'd like to liquidate andale pronto...if not imma snipe this mofo.   Cool




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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
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February 05, 2013, 05:10:52 AM
 #24

...
This is 696/400 000 shares of ASICMINER or 0.174% (200 000 sold for funding, 200 000 kept by company)

Info about these shares:
- 10 to 12 TH total planned in early february to mine for shareholders
- 6x increase planned in a second batch
- Further expansion possible
- Share of profit from sale of units
- Ownership of an ASIC manufacter, long-term potential

...

See the full thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497


I must have missed something here.  My analysis is:

The Avalon-2 is about (60 GH/s) / $1,500 --> 40 MH/s/$
This offer is (10TH/s) / (200,000 shareholder_shares) --> 50 MH/s/shareholder_share

On the basis of MH/s being equal, and neglecting things that make it not really so:
40 / $ = 50 / shareholder_share --> 50/40 $/shareholder_share

50/40 $/shareholder_share * 1 BTC / $20 --> 0.0625 BTC / shareholder_share

People are bidding 4.3 times this amount.  Why?

I try to be respectful and informed.
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February 05, 2013, 05:14:41 AM
 #25

...
This is 696/400 000 shares of ASICMINER or 0.174% (200 000 sold for funding, 200 000 kept by company)

Info about these shares:
- 10 to 12 TH total planned in early february to mine for shareholders
- 6x increase planned in a second batch
- Further expansion possible
- Share of profit from sale of units
- Ownership of an ASIC manufacter, long-term potential

...

See the full thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497


I must have missed something here.  My analysis is:

The Avalon-2 is about (60 GH/s) / $1,500 --> 40 MH/s/$
This offer is (10TH/s) / (200,000 shareholder_shares) --> 50 MH/s/shareholder_share

On the basis of MH/s being equal, and neglecting things that make it not really so:
40 / $ = 50 / shareholder_share --> 50/40 $/shareholder_share

50/40 $/shareholder_share * 1 BTC / $20 --> 0.0625 BTC / shareholder_share

People are bidding 4.3 times this amount.  Why?


You fail to realize in your calculations that:
(0) This is equity, not a mining bond.  That means that our hashrate will perpetually be increasing and we even get income from sales.
(1) Having terahashes now counts.  You can't really buy an Avalon-2 shipping in February.  Even if you could, the market price would be higher than Avalon is charging.  This is just like last year where mining bonds spiked up in price to a reasonable P/E ratio, rather than sitting at their hardware's preorder-value.

Yes, this makes this 4.3 times that amount.  In fact, it makes it many more times that amount, as shown in the other NYAN auction where people paid 0.45 BTC per share.

(BFL)^2 < 0
Namworld
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February 05, 2013, 05:31:17 AM
 #26

Sorry icebreaker, I copied a line and forgot to change the amount to 25. But yeah, not being able to edit is a bit annoying. It's not in the current qualifying bids anyway.
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February 05, 2013, 05:34:54 AM
 #27

No worries.  Just having some fun, as usual.   Tongue

Sorry for the double post.  I don't even how that happened.   Embarrassed



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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
P2P Exchange Network
Buy XMR with fiat
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February 05, 2013, 05:50:43 AM
 #28

I must have missed something here.  My analysis is:

...

50/40 $/shareholder_share * 1 BTC / $20 --> 0.0625 BTC / shareholder_share

People are bidding 4.3 times this amount.  Why?


Be careful with normalizing against USD values. At the time both ventures started the ratio was more like 1BTC@10USD. Thus an Avalon unit had the equivalent cost of 150 BTC, or about 3000 USD now.

Thus: 50 / 400 BTC / share =  0.125 BTC / share

Also, the cost for the increase in mining operations by the proposed factor 6 is included in the share price. So you're looking at up to 300 MH/s / share, which bumps the equivalent price to about 0.5 - 0.8 BTC / share.

I'd say 0.2 BTC / share is a bargain. 0.3 BTC / share is a good price.

But please do your own price discovery Smiley

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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February 05, 2013, 06:11:55 AM
 #29

I must have missed something here.  My analysis is:

...

50/40 $/shareholder_share * 1 BTC / $20 --> 0.0625 BTC / shareholder_share

People are bidding 4.3 times this amount.  Why?


Be careful with normalizing against USD values. At the time both ventures started the ratio was more like 1BTC@10USD. Thus an Avalon unit had the equivalent cost of 130 BTC, or about 2600 USD now.

Thus: 50 / 460 BTC / share =  0.11 BTC / share

Also, the cost for the increase in mining operations by the proposed factor 6 is included in the share price. So you're looking at up to 300 MH/s / share, which bumps the equivalent price to about 0.5 - 0.8 BTC / share.

I'd say 0.2 BTC / share is a bargain. 0.3 BTC / share is a good price.

But please do your own price discovery Smiley

Interestingly, with the Avalon-2 unit priced at $1500 and the BTC price shooting up to $20, the Avalon-2 unit has an equivalent BTC price of 75 BTC. What we see here is deflation at its finest: When looking at it from the BTC perspective, prices for hashpower decreased significantly. This means an Avalon-1 unit has to "make up" for a 55 BTC LOSS against the Avalon-2 unit.


The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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February 05, 2013, 06:13:52 AM
 #30

looks like editing is disabled.. ignore the draft version.

The ASICMINER Project https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
"The way you solve things is by making it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing.", Milton Friedman
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February 05, 2013, 08:51:45 AM
 #31

By the way, I also made "some" calculation. They started from estimation ASICMiner share income, and now are moving to fool compaction of BTC mining project where I can invest my money by the moment. Y may look and edit them here:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BwWpkjUuvsmcbUY2cWRVQ3hsZE0/edit?usp=sharing
not sure that I can post links. Pleasure don't bun me for this - I'll delete it by the first request.

BTC/USD price there 20.

Conclusion: 0.26 price fore share is the border at which you must think about other alternatives...

...
This is 696/400 000 shares of ASICMINER or 0.174% (200 000 sold for funding, 200 000 kept by company)

Info about these shares:
- 10 to 12 TH total planned in early february to mine for shareholders
- 6x increase planned in a second batch
- Further expansion possible
- Share of profit from sale of units
- Ownership of an ASIC manufacter, long-term potential

...

See the full thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497


I must have missed something here.  My analysis is:

The Avalon-2 is about (60 GH/s) / $1,500 --> 40 MH/s/$
This offer is (10TH/s) / (200,000 shareholder_shares) --> 50 MH/s/shareholder_share

On the basis of MH/s being equal, and neglecting things that make it not really so:
40 / $ = 50 / shareholder_share --> 50/40 $/shareholder_share

50/40 $/shareholder_share * 1 BTC / $20 --> 0.0625 BTC / shareholder_share

People are bidding 4.3 times this amount.  Why?

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February 05, 2013, 09:41:38 AM
 #32

Seeing as you will get close to 0.20 btc dividend in the 1st 2 months of mining I would say 0.30 btc is way too low a price.... (the first 0.10 btc dividend is calculated on 200.000 shares, after that dividends will be on 400.000 shares).....

Mining bonds have been trading around 6 months breakeven, mining equities are trading around 8 months break even....

Just my opinion....
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February 05, 2013, 09:55:24 AM
 #33

I've corrected this mistake two days ago, after your PM. Can you see
C17=C16/400000 + 0.05
?
6-8 munths - well, I really don't know what will happen when 1-2-3 K ASIC miners will be on-line (definitely part of miners in net power will decreasing, but what else) . So 6 months - enough  high risk for me.
Seeing as you will get close to 0.20 btc dividend in the 1st 2 months of mining I would say 0.30 btc is way too low a price.... (the first 0.10 btc dividend is calculated on 200.000 shares, after that dividends will be on 400.000 shares).....

Mining bonds have been trading around 6 months breakeven, mining equities are trading around 8 months break even....

Just my opinion....
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February 05, 2013, 12:00:14 PM
 #34

---------CURRENT HIGHEST BIDS-----------Amount----Price/Share--
Blazr250.27
ineededausername 6710.26
---------------------------------------------------------
----OUTBID----
iCEBREAKER250.26
BLFC Jordan6710.25
HorseRider6960.185
dadj6960.15
arij500.11
mb300sd6960.10

Highest bid remains the same for the last 6 hours.

Please stay on topic, I think there's enough ASIC threads already for discussion.  Wink

Regards.
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February 05, 2013, 02:30:05 PM
 #35

50 @ 0.27 BTC
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February 05, 2013, 11:12:52 PM
 #36

100 @ 0.27

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February 05, 2013, 11:17:15 PM
 #37

Unofficial table

---------CURRENT HIGHEST BIDS-----------Amount----Price/Share--
Blazr250.27
Digigami500.27
superbit1000.27
ineededausername 5210.26
---------------------------------------------------------
----OUTBID----
iCEBREAKER250.26
BLFC Jordan6710.25
HorseRider6960.185
dadj6960.15
arij500.11
mb300sd6960.10

(BFL)^2 < 0
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February 06, 2013, 04:31:16 PM
 #38

I bid for 100 shares @ 0.27 bitcoin

don't let me make you question your assumptions
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February 06, 2013, 05:12:51 PM
 #39

Unofficial table

---------CURRENT HIGHEST BIDS-----------Amount----Price/Share--
Blazr250.27
Digigami500.27
superbit1000.27
SaintFlow1000.27
ineededausername 4210.26
---------------------------------------------------------
----OUTBID----
iCEBREAKER250.26
BLFC Jordan6710.25
HorseRider6960.185
dadj6960.15
arij500.11
mb300sd6960.10

(BFL)^2 < 0
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February 06, 2013, 06:07:07 PM
 #40

232 ASH @ 0.27 BTC

And you may include current end time in your table (like "Tomorrow at 04:31:16 PM OR not later than February 10, 2013, 04:45:15 AM")
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