r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer

[TPTB_need_war]

The halving is not some insignificant event.

If you don't mind me butting in, Bitcoin is on a real roll as I write this. $453 on Polo's USDT market; Coindesk's index has pegged it at ~$450. So far, good call.

Exactly what happened the last time 3 months before the halving then crashed -40%. You can be sure I will be selling my remaining 4 BTC into this rise.

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[freshman777]

Incorrect. It rarely ends that way. Only for entirely broken regimes. Sorry Armstrong has all the data. He invested $1 billion collecting it.

In another thread you predict USA will break into regions. Is this not the definition of an entirely broken regime?

Edit: let me give you a quick, incomplete hint. Read Armstrong for the many details and points. The failed regimes were due to dictatorship and/or a bankrupt ideology (e.g. communism in the Weimar Republic).  When the population remains very productive and the debt is actually quite small (e.g. the debt is only $19 trillion in the USA but the productive capacity of the people is that much or more per year), then the society is not failed. We are going to see transition to a world reserve currency. This is not about total failure of government, except Europe is trying hard to achieve that again. China, Russia, USA, Canada, Australia, etc are no where near failed societies.

There is nothing new in the concept of world reserve currency. It can have many components this time, this doesn't change anything in how individual countries manage their economies and their budgets. Individual countries are pretty bad. For bankrupt ideology we have the welfare state. The productive population is shrinking, the liabilities of the governments are growing, you even said this yourself up thread, and there comes a point where society fails unable to bear the weight of liabilities. Enter hyper inflation.

I have read quite a lot of Armstrong, I don't agree with everything.

[e-coinomist]

I am ready.

http://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2016/01/19/10/bale.jpg

Ah, The Big Short. Loved that movie.

So, what will happen?

Back in 2013 we had Mt.Gox running on fractional/damaged reserve, so there had been more BTC available in trades than BTC total in existance and it did not matter because there was money inflow from the outsides. This year is more solid regarding those issues, just completely isolated market.
Nobody invests into BTC or mining equipment anymore. When did you bought ASICs valued 10.000 USD last time? Aren't those USD you now use to buy BTC just been taken from former BTC sales?

Some Alt sites like Cryptsy, Mintpal have bitten the dust. Dunno if that matters.

Bitcoin cannot do without Alts, both built up a complete whole economy. Remember people are not buying/selling anything using BTC, they just gamble on Alts. Basically I do agree on BTC up causing Alts going down and vice verse. Enclosed system like two water tanks with a flexible tube connecting them.

[TPTB_need_war]

Incorrect. It rarely ends that way. Only for entirely broken regimes. Sorry Armstrong has all the data. He invested $1 billion collecting it.

In another thread you predict USA will break into regions. Is this not the definition of an entirely broken regime?

Edit: let me give you a quick, incomplete hint. Read Armstrong for the many details and points. The failed regimes were due to dictatorship and/or a bankrupt ideology (e.g. communism in the Weimar Republic).  When the population remains very productive and the debt is actually quite small (e.g. the debt is only $19 trillion in the USA but the productive capacity of the people is that much or more per year), then the society is not failed. We are going to see transition to a world reserve currency. This is not about total failure of government, except Europe is trying hard to achieve that again. China, Russia, USA, Canada, Australia, etc are no where near failed societies.

There is nothing new in the concept of world reserve currency. It can have many components this time, this doesn't change anything in how individual countries manage their economies and their budgets. Individual countries are pretty bad. For bankrupt ideology we have the welfare state. The productive population is shrinking, the liabilities of the governments are growing, you even said this yourself up thread, and there comes a point where society fails unable to bear the weight of liabilities. Enter hyper inflation.

I have read quite a lot of Armstrong, I don't agree with everything.

What is happening is the productive people are breaking free from the unproductive. This is why we need a world reserve currency that no country can abuse.

The elite are doing creative destruction on the nation-state central  banks and currencies. But the productive sector will refuse to become socialists. My X gen is giving the middle finger to that.

Socialism is failing. Those with that ideology will fail. It is not an ideology held by everyone not like in Weimar Germany when everyone was tears and in love with the almighty Socalists and then Hitler. Those who disagreed, were unable to mount any defense nor defection.

I suggest you review this post about Texans and Texas:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1049048.msg14621869#msg14621869

trollercoaster had a similar post about rural Australians.

The Internet makes it possible for us to communicate to each other. Ideological, propaganda shit can't be hoisted on us who are awake. Trump is proving many people are awake. They read blogs.

[opmac]

I am ready.

http://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2016/01/19/10/bale.jpg

Ah, The Big Short. Loved that movie.

So, what will happen?

Back in 2013 we had Mt.Gox running on fractional/damaged reserve, so there had been more BTC available in trades than BTC total in existance and it did not matter because there was money inflow from the outsides. This year is more solid regarding those issues, just completely isolated market.
Nobody invests into BTC or mining equipment anymore. When did you bought ASICs valued 10.000 USD last time? Aren't those USD you now use to buy BTC just been taken from former BTC sales?

Some Alt sites like Cryptsy, Mintpal have bitten the dust. Dunno if that matters.

Bitcoin cannot do without Alts, both built up a complete whole economy. Remember people are not buying/selling anything using BTC, they just gamble on Alts. Basically I do agree on BTC up causing Alts going down and vice verse. Enclosed system like two water tanks with a flexible tube connecting them.

I agree the two go hand in hand. Since alt coins are really the biggest thing you can purchase with BTC, I think the halving will be more of a non event. But yes I do agree a lot of miners mining BTC will go silent. Thus making BTC even more valuable. The smaller miners will then be forced to sell there equipment at very low prices or mine new alt coins that come to market.

Crypto as a community needs to become stronger.

[TPTB_need_war]

So, what will happen?

Back in 2013 we had Mt.Gox running on fractional/damaged reserve, so there had been more BTC available in trades than BTC total in existance and it did not matter because there was money inflow from the outsides. This year is more solid regarding those issues, just completely isolated market.

The 850,000 Bitcoins stolen (200,000 recovered) from Mt. Gox were roughly 8% of the coin supply. What was likely happening is this supply was employed to manipulate the float on Mt. Gox (buying from yourselves, etc) in order to drive a massive bubble..since 70% of all Bitcoin traded through Mt.Gox.

Given ASICs had come online, miners didn't need to sell as many coins to pay electricity.

The mass media was pumping Bitcoin up every day.

We probably don't have the level of upward price manipulation now. Sorry.

Edit: altcoins became the way to have the float tied up in one or two exchanges (e.g. Ethereum) so the insiders could manipulate the price. Crypto-currency is all about the scams.

Nobody invests into BTC or mining equipment anymore. When did you bought ASICs valued 10.000 USD last time? Aren't those USD you now use to buy BTC just been taken from former BTC sales?

Bitcoin cannot do without Alts, both built up a complete whole economy. Remember people are not buying/selling anything using BTC, they just gamble on Alts. Basically I do agree on BTC up causing Alts going down and vice verse. Enclosed system like two water tanks with a flexible tube connecting them.

This is true. Most people don't want to trade their BTC for a non-CC asset, because this their gambling money. They can't buy mining equipment with BTC to increase their holdings of crypto-currency. This is why ICOs have become more popular than mined distribution, with the ASIC resistant Monero as an exception.

ASICs killed the mining ecosystem. This has been r0ach's point, that if the coins don't circulate, then the ecosystem dies. Bitcoin is dying. Only the altcoin circulation kept Bitcoin alive.

Sorry I see Bitcoin as very vulnerable. No new money is coming in. A global contagion can force some large whales to liquidate to cover their ass in other illiquid loans and investments.

Prepare for the crash.

[Monerobuyer0]

Roach was right, TPTB was wrong.

[TPTB_need_war]

Roach was right, TPTB was wrong.

Your verb tense is wrong. The halving has not occurred yet.

Please don't troll. Disingenuous posts are just useless noise.

Hey, it's not just me that has figured it out:

A BTC rise is needed at least for the next month or two to flush out the ICO scams that have been prevalent on the boards since January. All these MAID/WAVES/LISK/UPPERCASESCAMCOIN seem to be coming from the same type of factory. Until this new generation of crypto believers get burnt, they will not learn their lessons, however harsh that sounds. It doesn't mean some of the profiteers will change their stance or all of the ones getting burnt will learn, but that's just the way it is with money.

Btw, I think r0ach might ending up being both correct first and then wrong later. In other words, Bitcoin can blast up to $500 now, altcoins can take dump, and then Bitcoin can dump also in a crash as I think may be coming.

[r0ach]

Edit: you are entirely wrong on hyperinflation. The history is that only revolutionary and totally broken regimes hyperinflate. The world is composed of very strong regimes and they will not lay down their power by hyperinflating. Armstrong covers this in great detail in his blogs. Required reading material for you.

I read people like Dent and some of Armstrong, but I really classify all of their opinions on the same level as Jim Cramer and prefer not to cloud my judgement with them.  I prefer to just look at the facts and see what I can derive from it myself.  My "holistic" understanding of it all is:

The first inalienable fact is, governments fear deflation above all else.  This trumps whatever any of these commentators say.  The second fact is, they all want their own golden parachutes, and most are not actually keen on destroying all world financial markets on purpose and returning to the dark ages.  They fear for their own safety in the process of such events, and they don't want to destroy all their own wealth at the same time and be forced to live in the woods somewhere.  They also value the power and monopolies they have.  This means if they're allowing some huge sector of world markets to implode via their permission in this rigged game, they're also attempting to create or prop up another market as a backdoor somewhere else, and it's not going to be an illiquid market like land in Paraguay.

They know that currency backed by metals are completely useless and always fail.  The only way metals are useful is if the native coins are circulated in the economy.  It's not actually possible for this to happen unless civilization devolves back to the dark ages because metals have awful granularity and high friction in use.  They've already failed as currency in modern society many times due to this.  Any involvement by TPTB in metals would simply be a greater fools pump.

We already know lots of debts are going to be defaulted on in literally every market.  Since the monetary system is fractional reserve, based on using debt as money, this is about the most dangerous thing possible because it causes the money supply to shrink to nothingness in a liquidity crunch.  Once this occurs, you end up with hyper-gresham's law.  You can end up with the majority of digital fiat just vaporizing here, while the remaining stuff probably wouldn't be trusted anyway.  A huge premium would occur on paper and coins.  The premium on physical paper and coins would then cause gold and silver coins to increase.  At this point you enter into a fork in the road, you either go back to the dark ages and metals continue to increase, or society doesn't implode and metals just turns into a temporary greater fool pump.  So metals will be useful for making money somewhere along the line, just not useful in general.

At this point you're in a deflationary collapse, and people love to claim that you will lose money by being in "commodities" during deflation, but the "commodity" of paper money, gold, and Bitcoin will be some of the only things useful at this point.  If you wanted to be a carpet bagger, it would be difficult to do things like buy a dirt cheap house using paper money, because it's spike in value would just be brief before the government attempts to corral the flock into a new currency unit or print more, so people would only take it out of necessity.  The gains from Bitcoin would likely completely dwarf that of gold, and Bitcoiners will probably be the new Russian oligarchs unless the entire world did collapse back to dark ages.

So what is the government going to be doing during all this?  They want to prop the debt fueled markets up (stocks) using NIRP and threat of inflation.  But both are just social engineering tactics that can be bypassed by any smart person.  You can't force people into a choice between NIRP and stocks.  There will always be some way out, so NIRP will fail to prop markets up.  As markets collapse, the deflationary collapse starts, and Bernanke's real world example of "helicopter money" is unfunded tax cuts.  Like that would do anything to stop such an event.  Central banker manipulation would have zero effect without implementing a socialistic, monthly "free wage" to everyone, which would just cause flight of real wealth and capital to other places and/or hyperinflation.

In the end, it is almost irrelevent differentiating between an outcome of deflationary collapse and hyperinflation.  All that really matters is the cogs stop turning.  You will have to flee to another country that uses the closest thing to "honest money" possible or risk sitting around in a perpetual, unproductive ghetto for a decade or so.

[r0ach]

Most interesting story I've read in a long time.  They're trying to force inflation by manipulating oil and food up to prevent a deflationary collapse in the last throes of the fiat system.  They even had to try and consider pumping gold as an option, but decided that would be against their best interests and did the opposite there (lol):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-20/one-commodity-trader-writes-what-happening-has-absolutely-no-reasonable-explanation

[TPTB_need_war]

Edit: you are entirely wrong on hyperinflation. The history is that only revolutionary and totally broken regimes hyperinflate. The world is composed of very strong regimes and they will not lay down their power by hyperinflating. Armstrong covers this in great detail in his blogs. Required reading material for you.

I read people like Dent

I read Dent extensively around 2005 - 2007 and he ended up being wrong on everything. Then he totally flipflopped and reinvented himself.

Armstrong has been consistently correct since the 1980s.

No comparison. Stop reading that fool Dent.

And stop reading ZeroHedge, except for entertainment value. It is mostly useless noise.

[SwedishGirl]

So, what will happen?



Prepare for the crash.

How much are you willing to bet against bitcoin reaching $600 in 2016?

[balu2]

OP was wrong. The opposite happened already. I hope not too many people were scared out of their coins and had to rebuy higher later. BTC about to temporarily max out due to blocksize shenangians. Alts will almost certainly gain marketshare in the upcoming months and years which is a healthy developement.

Diversification was never a bad thing.

[r0ach]

I read Dent extensively around 2005 - 2007 and he ended up being wrong on everything. Then he totally flipflopped and reinvented himself.

Armstrong has been consistently correct since the 1980s.

No comparison. Stop reading that fool Dent.

And stop reading ZeroHedge, except for entertainment value. It is mostly useless noise.

I read everybody to gauge market sentiment whether it's people like Dent or Kyle Bass or even George Soros.  Of course Dent is going to be wrong on everything just like every Zero hedge story about collapse turned out wrong when the markets don't actually operate on fundamentals anymore.  It's like you have one central administrator flipping a light switch on and off with people trying to guess what he's going to do.

OP was wrong. The opposite happened already. I hope not too many people were scared out of their coins and had to rebuy higher later. BTC about to temporarily max out due to blocksize shenangians. Alts will almost certainly gain marketshare in the upcoming months and years which is a healthy developement.

Diversification was never a bad thing.

Haha, oh please.  You're walking around here trying to hype some old scamcoin that Wolong used to pump and dump called "Unobtanium".  Sorry, you're not fooling anyone pretending these literally 10,000 scamcoins that exist now aren't going to crater.  There is no reason for all these things to exist.

You actually called unobtanium a "work of art".  Next you're going to be telling us to buy Borgcoin:

Borgcoin has 500,000,000 coins to be minted. 500 million being based on the mass ton of the borg trans warp ship with a maximum rated speed of 29.968 warp factor with advanced trans warp drive. The fastest trans warp drive ship ever to exist. Join the collective now.

[Nxtblg]

The halving is not some insignificant event.

If you don't mind me butting in, Bitcoin is on a real roll as I write this. $453 on Polo's USDT market; Coindesk's index has pegged it at ~$450. So far, good call.

Exactly what happened the last time 3 months before the halving then crashed -40%. You can be sure I will be selling my remaining 4 BTC into this rise.

Well then, good luck.

[balu2]

Haha, oh please.  You're walking around here trying to hype some old scamcoin that Wolong used to pump and dump called "Unobtanium".  Sorry, you're not fooling anyone pretending these literally 10,000 scamcoins that exist now aren't going to crater.  There is no reason for all these things to exist.

You actually called unobtanium a "work of art".  Next you're going to be telling us to buy Borgcoin:

If all that comes to your mind is 'wolong' when hearing 'uno' you're probably stuck in 2013 or something. The 2013-pumpers are long gone.

And jada, jada. We know you're bagholding way more bitcoin than is good for you so your opinion is as biased as anyone elses'. Also the days when bitcoin could be mega-uber-hyped are also back in 2013. Man, your thread is such a blast from the past 

[TPTB_need_war]

So, what will happen?

Prepare for the crash.

How much are you willing to bet against bitcoin reaching $600 in 2016?

I am betting my $400 - $600 lost profit when I sell my remaining 4 BTC at $450 to $500.

[TPTB_need_war]

They are good graphic artist though. Is he for hire?

[r0ach]

They are good graphic artist though. Is he for hire?

Apparently not a good enough graphic artist to prevent the chain from dying.

I was always fond of hamstercoin logo myself...

[TechorMarketing]

So, what will happen?

Prepare for the crash.

How much are you willing to bet against bitcoin reaching $600 in 2016?

I am betting my $400 - $600 lost profit when I sell my remaining 4 BTC at $450 to $500.

You may end up being correct but why not hedge your bet? Why sell all the BTC you own?