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Author Topic: Do you really belive that you won't be able to buy at 20$ again?  (Read 3089 times)
humanitee
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February 07, 2013, 09:15:13 PM
 #21

 Cheesy

Is that a mouth, nose, or balls? lol
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CliffordM
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February 07, 2013, 09:45:31 PM
 #22

I think it's very hard to look at Gox and have a sensible discussion about 'fair-value' when things are this volatile.  

The fair-price (if there is one) is probably substantially lower than $20, could easily be $5.  But on top of this 'fair-value' is a risk-premium which reflects the uncertainty and opportunity to own coins.  

At current prices I would not worry about things being over (or under priced).  It's just like dealing with a hi-tech stock that's very fashionable to own one day, and short the next.

It reminds me of trying to trade Netscape in the early Internet days -- too big a position (either way) led to traders being carried out, those that took positions commensurate with their risk-limits ultimately won out.

It's rocky out there.  
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February 07, 2013, 10:18:21 PM
 #23

I think it's very hard to look at Gox and have a sensible discussion about 'fair-value' when things are this volatile.  

The fair-price (if there is one) is probably substantially lower than $20, could easily be $5.  But on top of this 'fair-value' is a risk-premium which reflects the uncertainty and opportunity to own coins.  

At current prices I would not worry about things being over (or under priced).  It's just like dealing with a hi-tech stock that's very fashionable to own one day, and short the next.

It reminds me of trying to trade Netscape in the early Internet days -- too big a position (either way) led to traders being carried out, those that took positions commensurate with their risk-limits ultimately won out.

It's rocky out there.  

If your idea of a "fair value" is not in line with the actual value, it's time to reassess your idea. The value is what it is...

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February 07, 2013, 11:05:39 PM
 #24



So why bitcoin isn't at 1000+ if everyone here is sure about it?


Because everyone is not sure about it.



Partly. Keep in mind that the bitcoin world is small. The "true believers" (eg, those that think it'll be worth $1000+/btc) have already put most of their "investment" fiat into bitcoin. Getting there simply requires more new people injecting fiat. That takes time.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
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wareen
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February 07, 2013, 11:43:23 PM
 #25

The "true believers" (eg, those that think it'll be worth $1000+/btc) have already put most of their "investment" fiat into bitcoin. Getting there simply requires more new people injecting fiat.

I keep reading that but it's not necessarily correct. A "true believer" will most likely spend a certain percentage of each paycheck on Bitcoin. At 22 USD / BTC there's about ~2.4 million USD worth of Bitcoin being mined each month. With for example 10,000 "true believers" worldwide that would mean "only" 240 USD per month to make the price rise all by itself.
Now, how realistic these assumptions are is of course debatable but it's simply not true that new investors are absolutely required for higher prices.

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payb.tc
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February 07, 2013, 11:44:52 PM
 #26

If it stabilizes somewhere near here for a while I'll hop back on the train but at this point I'm a little scared.

i remember that *exact* feeling of fear when it went to $2.50 after being relatively stable around 80c - $1

just imagine how you'll look back on this moment in 2 or 3 years.
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February 07, 2013, 11:49:15 PM
 #27

With for example 10,000 "true believers" worldwide
Now, how realistic these assumptions are is of course debatable

i'd put 100 people or less worldwide in the "true believers" category
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February 08, 2013, 12:08:38 AM
 #28

Many things like gold worth a lot simply because people believe it worth a lot, and that belief might come from history, culture, woman, hype...

If majority of the BTC owners believe that one BTC worth at least $1000, then before price reach $1000, there will not be a major sell off, everyone just hoard their coin, the supply is only 3.6k per day (and most of them were hoarded), and the popularity is gaining everyday

I think there are many such true belivers of BTC here, they even believe the BTC is going to take over the real world's economy


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February 08, 2013, 12:24:16 AM
 #29


I think there are many such true belivers of BTC here, they even believe the BTC is going to take over the real world's economy



Not hard to understand, given that the 'real world's economy' consists (literally) of certain parties with the right to wish money into existence with no limits.
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February 08, 2013, 12:49:12 AM
 #30

The market ALWAYS overshoots. Was $31/BTC justified in June 2011? no, but was $4 coin justified in early 2012? I don't think so.

Right now, I think $22 is reasonable, but slightly over-valued, but I believe we will see a lot higher price before we see a significant spike down. I think we will definitely see $30+ again before this rally fades.

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February 08, 2013, 01:24:25 AM
 #31

Assuming it does come back to 20, why would I want to wait until then? How about make some enjoyable profit by buying more now and then selling higher? Let it drop back to 20 and perhaps buy more then.
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February 08, 2013, 01:29:51 AM
 #32

People want this nice and steady price rise. That's all fine and dandy. But I don't think popularity works that way. Justin beiber went from being relatively unknown to being famous rather quickly. It's not a linear thing...... just IMHO
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February 08, 2013, 01:41:59 AM
 #33

The price jump recently makes more sense then past jumps. I think miners have probably triggered it, most are probably holding the coins they mine along with investing in btc rather then new equipment. They will probably continue doing it until ASIC's are easily purchasable. There has also been a lot of publicity lately, just today I ran into a BTC accepted ad while checking for new movies to download at icefilms.info This kind of thing makes me optimistic of the new prices. I don't see a major sell off under $20 at this point.

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February 08, 2013, 01:47:02 AM
 #34

step 1: add 7200 btc per day to a 0 btc economy
step 2: add 3600 btc per day to a 10,000,000 btc economy
step 3: add 1800 btc per day to a 15,000,000 btc economy  Shocked   <- this is going to be fun!
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February 08, 2013, 02:09:37 AM
 #35


22$ a coin starting from 8$ a coin 2 months ago is bullshit.

22$ a coin 6 months from now could be the right price.

But not in < 50 days.

Bubble.

If everybody thinks the price in 6 months should be 22 dollars a coin, then why would anybody sell the coin now for less than 22 dollars a coin? Markets don't follow speed limits to get to the correct price, they just go to the correct price. When conditions change, then the price changes.

WISDOM!!!
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February 08, 2013, 02:18:27 AM
 #36


22$ a coin starting from 8$ a coin 2 months ago is bullshit.

22$ a coin 6 months from now could be the right price.

But not in < 50 days.

Bubble.

If everybody thinks the price in 6 months should be 22 dollars a coin, then why would anybody sell the coin now for less than 22 dollars a coin? Markets don't follow speed limits to get to the correct price, they just go to the correct price. When conditions change, then the price changes.

WISDOM!!!

Thanks!!!

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February 08, 2013, 02:22:04 AM
 #37

I could rephrase your question as this: Did you really believe that you won't be able to sell above $2 again?

My answer is: I did, panic is a universal sentiment and no one is completely immune from it.

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February 08, 2013, 02:28:12 AM
 #38

If it stabilizes somewhere near here for a while I'll hop back on the train but at this point I'm a little scared.

i remember that *exact* feeling of fear when it went to $2.50 after being relatively stable around 80c - $1

just imagine how you'll look back on this moment in 2 or 3 years.


Easy Camaraderie: Your scars have scars, don't they?

Personal Experience: I've only been in the game 6 months (still kicking myself for not starting in early 2011 when I first heard about it) and I'm already getting a bit jaded.

Zen Answer: "The tide will keep coming in, but it comes in waves."

Paranoid Technobabble Analysis of the Zen Answer:
When looking at this analogy the population of people using bitcoin can be roughly compared to a fraction of the mass of the Moon based on a coefficient with bitcoin market capitalization numbers divided by the number of suspected users. The Mass/MarketCap/User coeficient, based on an assumption of an eventual $1000 value being equivalent to the full lunar mass at 21M coins used by 9 billion people, would mean 7.34767309×10^22 kilograms/2.1x10^10 = 3.498x10^12 kg / 9*10^9 = 388kg/person of "tidal influence" on the bitcoin market.

So with our current assumed population of 100,000 users (I've seen all sorts of guesses, I don't know how right/wrong this one is) and value of $22.32, we are only exerting ~9*10^15kg worth of tidal influence currently. Only 0.0000123% of the full tidal pull we will have "someday", but you now know that the bitcoin moon grows by 388kg/$/person, so everyone you tell adds 8,660kg right now, and more in the future.

It's also interesting that our gravitational theory of zen finance methodology has revealed that the impacts we are likely to feel are caused by events, like wind swept waves, rather than our gravitational influence, but as the body increases in mass it will serve to stabilize the price trajectory as well as increase the general movement towards increased values and thus more mass in a feedback loop. The real question is, will we realize the moon is too big and stop before it crashes into the planet and destroys all life?

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February 08, 2013, 05:55:50 AM
 #39

By far the most beautiful ASIC layout



This remind me of the time when every company use their own design to make various computer boards 20-30 years ago

payb.tc
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February 08, 2013, 06:00:03 AM
 #40

By far the most beautiful ASIC layout



that much hashing power will be included in my 2019-model smartphone
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