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Author Topic: Running some ASIC numbers...  (Read 3377 times)
Tomatocage
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February 08, 2013, 10:34:14 PM
 #21

On the BFL side it depends on their product mix.  A Jalapeno is 1 chip but not their "standard" 7.5 Gh/s per chip...

All the talk on the BFL forums is the initial release will be 6K chips -- WORST case that is 45 Th/s.  The 2nd release will also be ~6K chips so again another 45 Th/s WORST case.

I believe the next lot could be upwards of 75K chips and again WORST case that is 562.5 Th/s.

All said, the 420 Th/s number might not be too far off at the end though it could be nearer 500 I suppose.

Fuck. I think I'd be better off just buying BTC.

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February 09, 2013, 06:24:27 AM
 #22

On the BFL side it depends on their product mix.  A Jalapeno is 1 chip but not their "standard" 7.5 Gh/s per chip...

All the talk on the BFL forums is the initial release will be 6K chips -- WORST case that is 45 Th/s.  The 2nd release will also be ~6K chips so again another 45 Th/s WORST case.

I believe the next lot could be upwards of 75K chips and again WORST case that is 562.5 Th/s.

All said, the 420 Th/s number might not be too far off at the end though it could be nearer 500 I suppose.

Fuck. I think I'd be better off just buying BTC.

That's why the exchange price is rising Cheesy

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February 09, 2013, 03:37:38 PM
 #23

Fuck. I think I'd be better off just buying BTC.

Hrmm.. my entire post reduced to one line...   Grin
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February 09, 2013, 03:44:45 PM
 #24

what i hate the most about all of this is the lack of numbers from BFL. if as said... enough are pre-sold where the difficulty/hashrate rises enough.. unless bitcoin price increases by a drastic amount, its entirely possible that people will have great difficulty paying off their hardware from bitcoin sales. as mentioned... hardware prices will more then likely drop as well, but they would have to drop enough where people could buy back into the race with potential profits on the horizon. thats also assuming BFL doesnt drop the price before everything has finished shipping, causing even more people to rush in and buy more without ever knowing how many are currently sold.

one thought that keeps crossing my mind is "is bfl gaming the community?" by that i dont mean a scam. i mean are they keeping their sales numbers hidden, with the specific intention to sell as many as possible, regardless of the fact they know that everyone buying units after sales number ### will have virtually no chance to pay off that unit. if we had those figures we could calculate profits fairly accurately and  reasonably judge whether its OK to buy. the more i think about it the scarier this all feels.

on the other hand it could be the opposite. there sales are doing really bad and they dont want anyone to know. hoping people will order more so its not plainly visible by network hashrate that BFL didnt add much to it.

of course i should also mention... if they are a good company... and good people. and know that people in the latter orders wont be able to pay off their hardware... they could ... refund some money... or perhaps... upgrade people to increase their hashrate to allow them to make more money to offset that. either way, the risk is potentially huge unless you can afford to throw money away on a gamble.

With that said, and not knowing what BFL is doing in regards to all of this, this is all speculation on my part.

One thing is for certain, avalon has specific batches and we know months in advance what they will be. assuming they plan to ship more then 2 units(china dont count. lol Grin j/k china)

if im totally way off the mark somewhere... forgive my late night... erm early morning post.
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February 09, 2013, 10:01:57 PM
 #25

On the BFL side it depends on their product mix.  A Jalapeno is 1 chip but not their "standard" 7.5 Gh/s per chip...

All the talk on the BFL forums is the initial release will be 6K chips -- WORST case that is 45 Th/s.  The 2nd release will also be ~6K chips so again another 45 Th/s WORST case.

I believe the next lot could be upwards of 75K chips and again WORST case that is 562.5 Th/s.

All said, the 420 Th/s number might not be too far off at the end though it could be nearer 500 I suppose.

Fuck. I think I'd be better off just buying BTC.

That's why the exchange price is rising Cheesy

Once ASICs hit though, won't the price plummet? I'm hesitant to buy any atm because I'm expecting several units to come online and watch as people desperately cash out on the BTC they mine in order to guarentee their ROI. Won't the price plummet for that? Followed by a rebound? So, wait for the market to bottom out then buy, wait a while to sell, and you could turn a decent profit from that.
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February 09, 2013, 10:24:48 PM
 #26

On the BFL side it depends on their product mix.  A Jalapeno is 1 chip but not their "standard" 7.5 Gh/s per chip...

All the talk on the BFL forums is the initial release will be 6K chips -- WORST case that is 45 Th/s.  The 2nd release will also be ~6K chips so again another 45 Th/s WORST case.

I believe the next lot could be upwards of 75K chips and again WORST case that is 562.5 Th/s.

All said, the 420 Th/s number might not be too far off at the end though it could be nearer 500 I suppose.

Fuck. I think I'd be better off just buying BTC.

That's why the exchange price is rising Cheesy

Once ASICs hit though, won't the price plummet? I'm hesitant to buy any atm because I'm expecting several units to come online and watch as people desperately cash out on the BTC they mine in order to guarentee their ROI. Won't the price plummet for that? Followed by a rebound? So, wait for the market to bottom out then buy, wait a while to sell, and you could turn a decent profit from that.

SSSSHHHH,thats supposed to be a secret dude    Grin    .................Just like " No one will ever get thier ROI back ever,with ASIC's",too funny  Cheesy 

My GPU's have paid themselves off many months ago & paid for my first 30GH unit which will pay for my next 60GH unit & so on.I won't elaborate on my math,but even @ $8 per BTC,I should still make more than enough for several more 60 GH units by June at the latest  Cool

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February 09, 2013, 11:26:03 PM
 #27


Once ASICs hit though, won't the price plummet? I'm hesitant to buy any atm because I'm expecting several units to come online and watch as people desperately cash out on the BTC they mine in order to guarentee their ROI. Won't the price plummet for that?

Not likely.  Even if every miner starts selling every coin he mines, thats still only 3600 BTC per day, which isnt that much. And even that is not likely to happen, most people who invested in ASICs believe in bitcoin and will want to hoard them. If anything I expect an opposite effect, I imagine many miners at least sell enough coins to pay for electricity, and that ratio is about to drop.

Quote
My GPU's have paid themselves off many months ago & paid for my first 30GH unit which will pay for my next 60GH unit & so on.I won't elaborate on my math,but even @ $8 per BTC,I should still make more than enough for several more 60 GH units by June at the latest  Cool

GPUs and FPGAs were very different. They were never going to drop massively or suddenly in price, because most of the demand isnt from bitcoin mining, its from other applications like gaming and relatively stable. ASICs on the other hand, can only be sold for mining, its market value is determined almost only by bitcoin difficulty. Once difficulty raises substantially, and sales start to dry up,  prices will drop and keep dropping through the floor, causing difficulty to explode.  best of luck with June deliveries.
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