1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000

[zimmah]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

It would be crazy if that was going to happen but I am sure that the value will never be that high. There are to many people using Bitcoin that means that so many people would become millionaires I just do not see something like that happening.

21 trillion, that's still less than the national wealth of china. And much less than the national wealth of the world.

It's not that weird to reach 21 trillion.

Gold has a market cap of 7 trillion, and bitcoin is better than gold.

also, just because you use bitcoin won't make you a millionaire, most people don't own a full bitcoin, and even if bitcoin would reach $1 million it would not create too many millionaires or billionaires.

I calculated that already and compared it to the current amount of millionaires and billionaires in the world, and actually if you assume 1 bitcoin is worth 1 million, you would get almost exactly the amount of millionaires and billionaires as there are in the world.

coincidence? I don't think so.

It's zipfs law right there.

[OrangeII]

I am not sure bitcoin price will be $ 1,000,000, the price is very expensive in my opinion. apart from that I also ask each other, what can make bitcoin prices rose so high as $ 1 million

[zimmah]

I am not sure bitcoin price will be $ 1,000,000, the price is very expensive in my opinion. apart from that I also ask each other, what can make bitcoin prices rose so high as $ 1 million

demand

and low supply

[coinyard]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

It would be crazy if that was going to happen but I am sure that the value will never be that high. There are to many people using Bitcoin that means that so many people would become millionaires I just do not see something like that happening.

21 trillion, that's still less than the national wealth of china. And much less than the national wealth of the world.

It's not that weird to reach 21 trillion.

Gold has a market cap of 7 trillion, and bitcoin is better than gold.

also, just because you use bitcoin won't make you a millionaire, most people don't own a full bitcoin, and even if bitcoin would reach $1 million it would not create too many millionaires or billionaires.

I calculated that already and compared it to the current amount of millionaires and billionaires in the world, and actually if you assume 1 bitcoin is worth 1 million, you would get almost exactly the amount of millionaires and billionaires as there are in the world.

coincidence? I don't think so.

It's zipfs law right there.

$21 trillion is similar to the US state debt. So it is not a big amount. It is much less than the total wealth.

[Fuppy]

$1 million per BTC (inflation adjusted value) is not unreasonable at all.

There aren't 21 million BTC available. Satoshi owns a million that he might not spend. Plus there are more bitcoins that need to get mined and as many as 3 million BTC that have been lost during the early years. The real money supply (even 20 years from now) is more like 19 million BTC, maybe as low as 16 million BTC.

Also $21 trillion dollars is not that much money! Just looks at the global money supply which bitcoin could replace some or all of. Assuming 18 million BTC:

M0 = $5,000,000,000,000 = $28,000 per BTC
M1 = $25,000,000,000,000 = $1,300,000 per BTC
M2 = $60,000,000,000,000 = $3,300,000 per BTC
M3 = $75,000,000,000,000 = $4,100,000 per BTC

Offshore, tax haven assets are currently valued as $30 trillion. If 10% of that went into BTC you're looking at over $167,000 per BTC.

If bitcoin achieves global currency status, how much demand would there be for it? Everyone will be using it daily, investment funds will have have significant holdings, billions of dollars will be transacted daily, etc. The net worth of the world is $241 Trillion dollars. How much of that will be held as BTC in a global bitcoin monetary system? A lot!

You guys need to dream bigger!

[asrilani]

$1 million per BTC (inflation adjusted value) is not unreasonable at all.

There aren't 21 million BTC available. Satoshi owns a million that he might not spend. Plus there are more bitcoins that need to get mined and as many as 3 million BTC that have been lost during the early years. The real money supply (even 20 years from now) is more like 19 million BTC, maybe as low as 16 million BTC.

Also $21 trillion dollars is not that much money! Just looks at the global money supply which bitcoin could replace some or all of. Assuming 18 million BTC:

M0 = $5,000,000,000,000 = $28,000 per BTC
M1 = $25,000,000,000,000 = $1,300,000 per BTC
M2 = $60,000,000,000,000 = $3,300,000 per BTC
M3 = $75,000,000,000,000 = $4,100,000 per BTC

Offshore, tax haven assets are currently valued as $30 trillion. If 10% of that went into BTC you're looking at over $167,000 per BTC.

If bitcoin achieves global currency status, how much demand would there be for it? Everyone will be using it daily, investment funds will have have significant holdings, billions of dollars will be transacted daily, etc. The net worth of the world is $241 Trillion dollars. How much of that will be held as BTC in a global bitcoin monetary system? A lot!

You guys need to dream bigger!

That is a good analysis with fitures. That is just using the US data. If we use the world data, the value will be even higher.

[Qunenin]

I am not sure bitcoin price will be $ 1,000,000, the price is very expensive in my opinion. apart from that I also ask each other, what can make bitcoin prices rose so high as $ 1 million

demand

and low supply

I also don't think we'll see the price touch the $1000 price level any time sooner or not even later. What can be the realistic price bitcoin can ever reach ?
For my point of view, it is $5000 Max, unless or until any miracle happens.

[d5000]

The absolute maximum I think it can reach (I wouldn't bet on it) is about $15-20000 per BTC.

Cryptocurrencies will have a much larger market share in the future. I think in 10 years they will dominate the remittances market. But I don't expect them to be the main method of payment. And I also don't think Bitcoin can keep its near-monopoly. There will be cheaper (transaction fees), stabler (price stability) and feature-richer cryptocurrencies.

The only chance it could go to 1 million is in the case of some very improbable event, like a global war where internet connection miraculously stays intact.

[Monnt]

$1,000,000 in btc may look big right now, but if bitcoin ever rose up to that price, it wouldn't be that the value of it went up, but more likely the value of fiat went down. Keep that in mind.

[Mobius]

That would be insane! But it is always good to dream.

[coinyard]

$1,000,000 in btc may look big right now, but if bitcoin ever rose up to that price, it wouldn't be that the value of it went up, but more likely the value of fiat went down. Keep that in mind.

The fiat will go down a lot in the future. But the value of Bitcoin will also rise due to the mass adoption.

[wikenpp]

The absolute maximum I think it can reach (I wouldn't bet on it) is about $15-20000 per BTC.

Cryptocurrencies will have a much larger market share in the future. I think in 10 years they will dominate the remittances market. But I don't expect them to be the main method of payment. And I also don't think Bitcoin can keep its near-monopoly. There will be cheaper (transaction fees), stabler (price stability) and feature-richer cryptocurrencies.

The only chance it could go to 1 million is in the case of some very improbable event, like a global war where internet connection miraculously stays intact.

Na even that seems little bit high if you ask me. I guess the maximum (if the plans works out and adoption is at our feet) would be somewhere in between 3000-10000).
I don't see it going much higher, because the succes of bitcoin will make the banks more aggressively jump in and take a piece of bitcoin's market cap.

[zimmah]

I am not sure bitcoin price will be $ 1,000,000, the price is very expensive in my opinion. apart from that I also ask each other, what can make bitcoin prices rose so high as $ 1 million

demand

and low supply

I also don't think we'll see the price touch the $1000 price level any time sooner or not even later. What can be the realistic price bitcoin can ever reach ?
For my point of view, it is $5000 Max, unless or until any miracle happens.

a couple of million

like 5 million or so, that would be about the limit of a sustainable price.

[d5000]

Na even that seems little bit high if you ask me. I guess the maximum (if the plans works out and adoption is at our feet) would be somewhere in between 3000-10000).
I don't see it going much higher, because the succes of bitcoin will make the banks more aggressively jump in and take a piece of bitcoin's market cap.

I also think that probability is very high that we won't ever see $10000. My personal guess for a "realistic" maximum is about 3000-5000$.

But 15000-20000 are possible if you make an estimation based on the actual remittance and electronic commerce markets, the main application areas for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. But this would be only possible if Bitcoin keeps its "near-monopoly" for some years more.

[BurtW]

We cannot/do not want to get to $1,000,000 or even $500,000 per BTC any time soon unless there is hyperinflation and the dollar were to lose most of its value.  In other words the only way we are going to get to $1,000,000 or even $500,000 if for that many USD to be worth what $1,000 or $500 is worth today in terms of purchasing power.  Here is the math behind it:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0

If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble:

   $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour

$75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW.  This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet.

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption:

P = (6(50/2^e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW]

where:

x = exchange rate [USD/BTC]
e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1)
f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour]
c = cost of energy [USD/kWh]
g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio]

we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC.

In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions:

x = $500,000 per BTC
f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras
c = $0.10 per kWh
g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin

Code:

      Original target      Subsidy    Est Fees  Power  % of total world
Era    starting year    BTC/block    BTC/hour     GW  power production
---  ---------------  -----------  ----------  -----  ----------------
  0             2009  50.00000000  0.00000000  1,350            58.41%
  1             2013  25.00000000  0.00000000    675            29.20%
  2             2017  12.50000000  0.00000000    337            14.60%
  3             2021   6.25000000  0.00000000    169             7.30%
  4             2025   3.12500000  0.00000000     84             3.65%
  5             2029   1.56250000  0.00000000     42             1.83%
  6             2033   0.78125000  1.31250000     27             1.17%
  7             2037   0.39062500  3.65625000     27             1.17%
  8             2041   0.19531250  4.82812500     27             1.17%
  9             2045   0.09765625  5.41406250     27             1.17%

[richardsNY]

$1,000,000 in btc may look big right now, but if bitcoin ever rose up to that price, it wouldn't be that the value of it went up, but more likely the value of fiat went down. Keep that in mind.

The fiat will go down a lot in the future. But the value of Bitcoin will also rise due to the mass adoption.

Fiat will always go down in value as it has a never ending supply. That's also the reason why large investors and normal investors as you and me are looking for alternatives. For me this alternative is Bitcoin and I hope it will also be the chosen alternative for the average joes of this world.

[zimmah]

We cannot/do not want to get to $1,000,000 or even $500,000 per BTC any time soon unless there is hyperinflation and the dollar were to lose most of its value.  In other words the only way we are going to get to $1,000,000 or even $500,000 if for that many USD to be worth what $1,000 or $500 is worth today in terms of purchasing power.  Here is the math behind it:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0

If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble:

   $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour

$75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW.  This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet.

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption:

P = (6(50/2^e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW]

where:

x = exchange rate [USD/BTC]
e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1)
f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour]
c = cost of energy [USD/kWh]
g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio]

we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC.

In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions:

x = $500,000 per BTC
f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras
c = $0.10 per kWh
g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin

Code:

      Original target      Subsidy    Est Fees  Power  % of total world
Era    starting year    BTC/block    BTC/hour     GW  power production
---  ---------------  -----------  ----------  -----  ----------------
  0             2009  50.00000000  0.00000000  1,350            58.41%
  1             2013  25.00000000  0.00000000    675            29.20%
  2             2017  12.50000000  0.00000000    337            14.60%
  3             2021   6.25000000  0.00000000    169             7.30%
  4             2025   3.12500000  0.00000000     84             3.65%
  5             2029   1.56250000  0.00000000     42             1.83%
  6             2033   0.78125000  1.31250000     27             1.17%
  7             2037   0.39062500  3.65625000     27             1.17%
  8             2041   0.19531250  4.82812500     27             1.17%
  9             2045   0.09765625  5.41406250     27             1.17%

several things would happen that would mess up your predictions

1) ASIC manufacturers would not be able to supply enough ASICs, so ASICs would become really expensive. Also there would be quite a large waiting time for ASICs to be delivered because of the high demand. (ASICs need to be physically produced, you can't just create petahashes worth of miners out of thin air, they need to be build, this takes time and money).

2) If somehow there would suddenly come more miners (there won't because of point 1) and they would consume significantly more power, then power would become more expensive world-wide. Most people would try to limit their power usage. Governments might even try to subsidize plans to use less power, or if it's really extreme they might enforce policies to limit power usage. This may or may not be paired with an increased surge in renewable energy.

3) More energy efficient ASICs would be produced, and the research for more efficient chips would be accelerated because of high demand for energy-efficient chips. Because of the vast amounts of wealth ASIC manufactures now have, they would buy up companies like IBM, Nvidea and Intel to benefit from their expertise in making energy efficient hardware. ASICs and computer hardware would be increasingly efficient, although computer components might be developed more slowly because most research is now in ASICs.

probably more  haven't thought of.

[BurtW]

several things would happen that would mess up your predictions

1) ASIC manufacturers would not be able to supply enough ASICs, so ASICs would become really expensive. Also there would be quite a large waiting time for ASICs to be delivered because of the high demand. (ASICs need to be physically produced, you can't just create petahashes worth of miners out of thin air, they need to be build, this takes time and money).

This is a good point.  The ASICs would become more expensive due to the supply issues - until the supply issues are sorted out.  This would cause the power consumption to not be as bad as predicted - until the supply issues are sorted out.  This is why I said

$75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW

2) If somehow there would suddenly come more miners (there won't because of point 1) and they would consume significantly more power, then power would become more expensive world-wide. Most people would try to limit their power usage. Governments might even try to subsidize plans to use less power, or if it's really extreme they might enforce policies to limit power usage. This may or may not be paired with an increased surge in renewable energy.

If mining were to produce $75,000,000 per hour you would see a Bitcoin mining rush unlike anything we have ever seen. Everyone and their grandmother would become interested in and attempt to mine.  I agree with your first point that this would cause a short term supply issue with mining equipment but disagree:  everyone would want to mine and there would be a lot more people trying to mine with any "pick and shovel" they can get their hands on.  

Yes, a sudden increase in the consumption of energy would drive the prices higher so the formula given would need to be adjusted, perhaps making the cost of energy (c) a function instead of a constant.  As a side effect of the much higher prices for energy, yes, the very expensive renewable sources could become more viable.  So, a huge demand for energy for the Bitcoin network may be good for the renewable energy sector as it burns through all our non-renewable sources.

3) More energy efficient ASICs would be produced, and the research for more efficient chips would be accelerated because of high demand for energy-efficient chips. Because of the vast amounts of wealth ASIC manufactures now have, they would buy up companies like IBM, Nvidea and Intel to benefit from their expertise in making energy efficient hardware. ASICs and computer hardware would be increasingly efficient, although computer components might be developed more slowly because most research is now in ASICs.

No.  By design, mining equipment efficiency has no effect on the total amount of energy the Bitcoin network attempts to consume.  Mining equipment efficiency only affects the difficulty - not overall power consumption.

[ElpadroBitcoin]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

You know that this is impossible to happen even the richest man in the world does not even have that much money. I am sure that you will not be able to earn that much money with Bitcoin.

[zimmah]

1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000 USD
21 Million Bitcoins = $21,000,000,000,000 ($21 Trillion USD)

You know that this is impossible to happen even the richest man in the world does not even have that much money. I am sure that you will not be able to earn that much money with Bitcoin.

that doesn't even make sense.

why would the richest man in the world need enough money to buy all bitcoins?

the richest man in the world doesn't have enough money to buy all euros either, that doesn't collapse the value of the euro.

The richest man in the world can't even afford all the gold in the world either, that doesn't crash the gold market.

Your argument is just so bad.