Technical Analysis Without Technical Knowledge

[Razick]

So I'm not a TA guy as I've said before, mostly because I don't know the rules but also because I don't trust it. HOWEVER, I have seen the triangular pattern when the resistance and support narrow to a point, and, from what I understand as well as some experience, the price tends to break up or down at the point. So we may be nearing a critical point (no pun intended) where the bull market either 1) accelerates (steeper trend), 2) jumps up to a higher trend-line 3) drops to a lower trend-line or 4) ends.

If anyone with TA knowledge wants to supply some more informed input, please feel free.



Alternative proposed by LMGTFY (yellow line):



I actually think this is more likely given the market movements of the past week.

[1714601876]

1714601876

[1714601876]

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[MatTheCat]

The next 24 hours are critical!

[sandiman]

The next 24 hours are critical!

why ?

[LMGTFY]

The next 24 hours are critical!

why ?

Just because!

[odolvlobo]

So we may be nearing a critical point (no pun intended) where the bull market either 1) accelerates (steeper trend), 2) jumps up to a higher trend-line 3) drops to a lower trend-line or 4) ends.

So TA tells us that at some point the price will either go up, go down, or stay the same. Very insightful.

[thejaytiesto]

So we may be nearing a critical point (no pun intended) where the bull market either 1) accelerates (steeper trend), 2) jumps up to a higher trend-line 3) drops to a lower trend-line or 4) ends.

So TA tells us that at some point the price will either go up, go down, or stay the same. Very insightful.

Well this is pretty much what all TA does unless you also add fundamental analysis to it, because technical analysis without the fundamentals is pretty useless in my book, you just can't live off making lines in a graph without having into account the context of the situation, and the situation is as positive as it can get for Bitcoin right now, so the general consensus is a bullish one, what we are seeing is yet another correction, general trend is obviously UP.

[LMGTFY]

So we may be nearing a critical point (no pun intended) where the bull market either 1) accelerates (steeper trend), 2) jumps up to a higher trend-line 3) drops to a lower trend-line or 4) ends.

So TA tells us that at some point the price will either go up, go down, or stay the same. Very insightful.

Well this is pretty much what all TA does unless you also add fundamental analysis to it, because technical analysis without the fundamentals is pretty useless in my book, you just can't live off making lines in a graph without having into account the context of the situation, and the situation is as positive as it can get for Bitcoin right now, so the general consensus is a bullish one, what we are seeing is yet another correction, general trend is obviously UP.

I kinda feel people expect too much from TA (and analysis in general). It's analysis, nothing more, nothing less. It's like that Eisenhower comment about planning for battle - in the heat of battle the plans are useless, but planning is still indispensable. Planning helps us prepare for what may happen; analysis helps us understand what has happened (and perhaps what is happening and what may happen), but it can't do anything more. With a bit of TA I'm still blind - but less blind than I'd be with no TA.

Totally agree about fundamental analysis, and I'd add that TA is decreasingly useful as the time-frame increases (good for short term, bad for long term). Fundamental analysis tends to be the reverse - short-term changes in a fundamental (usage/adoption, say) aren't that helpful, the data is too noisy.

I saw someone comment about the bear market having ended, which prompted some derision ("of course it's over, November 2015" etc). But IMO they're right - we were in a bear market for some time, late last year was the first time we saw a significant rise, and what we've seen since has shown it wasn't just a dead-cat bounce. I believe this is the early days of a new bull trend. Today's drop be damned.

@Razick, I'm a hodler mostly (with a bit of playing at being a trader, mostly options, for fun and... not profit). I use TA mostly to help me understand what's going on, rather than helping me to decide when to open/close positions. I'd agree about the triangle pattern you saw, except I believe we've reached the end of it, and the rise over the last week or so is what's replaced it.

[Razick]

So we may be nearing a critical point (no pun intended) where the bull market either 1) accelerates (steeper trend), 2) jumps up to a higher trend-line 3) drops to a lower trend-line or 4) ends.

So TA tells us that at some point the price will either go up, go down, or stay the same. Very insightful.

Yes (except for stay the same, which is not one of the options). I don't like to make bold predictions without knowing what I am talking about as so many here are fond of doing. What is interesting is this: The current trend is likely to change within 1-2 weeks. I think that is insightful, especially if you have an opinion about which of the 4 options is more likely. I think 1 and 2 are more likely, meaning that we will likely, if I'm right, have an increase in either 1) price or 2) trend above what we've been experiencing within a week or two. Note that I also suspect that we'll test the support before that point.

So if you agree with my position, it might be wise to wait for the price to drop to near support and then buy in expectation of higher prices.

(But again, that's all my uninformed opinion)

So we may be nearing a critical point (no pun intended) where the bull market either 1) accelerates (steeper trend), 2) jumps up to a higher trend-line 3) drops to a lower trend-line or 4) ends.

So TA tells us that at some point the price will either go up, go down, or stay the same. Very insightful.

Well this is pretty much what all TA does unless you also add fundamental analysis to it, because technical analysis without the fundamentals is pretty useless in my book, you just can't live off making lines in a graph without having into account the context of the situation, and the situation is as positive as it can get for Bitcoin right now, so the general consensus is a bullish one, what we are seeing is yet another correction, general trend is obviously UP.

I kinda feel people expect too much from TA (and analysis in general). It's analysis, nothing more, nothing less. It's like that Eisenhower comment about planning for battle - in the heat of battle the plans are useless, but planning is still indispensable. Planning helps us prepare for what may happen; analysis helps us understand what has happened (and perhaps what is happening and what may happen), but it can't do anything more. With a bit of TA I'm still blind - but less blind than I'd be with no TA.

Totally agree about fundamental analysis, and I'd add that TA is decreasingly useful as the time-frame increases (good for short term, bad for long term). Fundamental analysis tends to be the reverse - short-term changes in a fundamental (usage/adoption, say) aren't that helpful, the data is too noisy.

I saw someone comment about the bear market having ended, which prompted some derision ("of course it's over, November 2015" etc). But IMO they're right - we were in a bear market for some time, late last year was the first time we saw a significant rise, and what we've seen since has shown it wasn't just a dead-cat bounce. I believe this is the early days of a new bull trend. Today's drop be damned.

@Razick, I'm a hodler mostly (with a bit of playing at being a trader, mostly options, for fun and... not profit). I use TA mostly to help me understand what's going on, rather than helping me to decide when to open/close positions. I'd agree about the triangle pattern you saw, except I believe we've reached the end of it, and the rise over the last week or so is what's replaced it.

I see your point (chart below). Would that mean that the green line would continue to be the support and the red line would be the new resistance?

[sandiman]

The next 24 hours are critical!

why ?

Just because!

Thank you for the funny truth   

I also think we will try some support before going up, but maybe we are currently testing it.

[Pab]

Breaktrough level is on 520$ if passed next stop is 650$
will be good if we will have accumulation above 450$
if price will comeback fast to 420$ than be careful

[Razick]

The next 24 hours are critical!

why ?

Just because!

Well done sir. That's absolutely hilarious.

[Anonymoose33]

So I'm not a TA guy as I've said before, mostly because I don't know the rules but also because I don't trust it. HOWEVER, I have seen the triangular pattern when the resistance and support narrow to a point, and, from what I understand as well as some experience, the price tends to break up or down at the point. So we may be nearing a critical point (no pun intended) where the bull market either 1) accelerates (steeper trend), 2) jumps up to a higher trend-line 3) drops to a lower trend-line or 4) ends.

If anyone with TA knowledge wants to supply some more informed input, please feel free.

http://s32.postimg.org/i4vtpkj1x/chart_42716.png

Alternative proposed by LMGTFY (yellow line):

http://s32.postimg.org/out409rw5/chart_42716_2.png

I actually think this is more likely given the market movements of the past week.

Your trendlines are pretty accurate to where they should be.

[Gillette]

So we may be nearing a critical point (no pun intended) where the bull market either 1) accelerates (steeper trend), 2) jumps up to a higher trend-line 3) drops to a lower trend-line or 4) ends.

So TA tells us that at some point the price will either go up, go down, or stay the same. Very insightful.

Yeah, very helpful analyses 

[zimmah]

The next 24 hours are critical!

why ?

Just because!

it's basically a meme.

On topic though, i think the original image is more likely.

The red line seems like resistance while the green line acts as support, either one will break, but personally i think the red one will break.

[Razick]

The next 24 hours are critical!

why ?

Just because!

it's basically a meme.

On topic though, i think the original image is more likely.

The red line seems like resistance while the green line acts as support, either one will break, but personally i think the red one will break.

Actually, looking at it now, they could both be true: The recent spike in price could be a result of breaking the yellow line, and now we're still waiting to break out of the red line.

[spazzdla]

crazyness it is hitting that green line :O! does it hold?!

[LMGTFY]

...
@Razick, I'm a hodler mostly (with a bit of playing at being a trader, mostly options, for fun and... not profit). I use TA mostly to help me understand what's going on, rather than helping me to decide when to open/close positions. I'd agree about the triangle pattern you saw, except I believe we've reached the end of it, and the rise over the last week or so is what's replaced it.

I see your point (chart below). Would that mean that the green line would continue to be the support and the red line would be the new resistance?

-img-http://s32.postimg.org/out409rw5/chart_42716_2.png-/img-

I don't know. My expectation would be that price would rise quite dramatically, though I have no idea how far. Price has risen quite dramatically (and I think it may rise further, once the current consolidation is over, but I've not really thought that far ahead).

I was talking recently with someone with a different perspective on analysis - similar thoughts on what would happen (and has now happened), but a different approach to analysis. I suspect they've thought this through much more than me - I'll see if I can get them to comment.

[Amph]

you can only tell the real outcome based on the probability, the probability now is telling us that the price will increase, no one know by how much

but based on the fact that we increased from 200 to 400 and we are still here(no sign of returning to 200) and based on te fact that the 4xx range is following the same 2xx range pattern

we can assume an increase in the future, this is for me the best TA we can have right now, the only way to have a good prediction is to analyze the most recent past movements

[Razick]

you can only tell the real outcome based on the probability, the probability now is telling us that the price will increase, no one know by how much

but based on the fact that we increased from 200 to 400 and we are still here(no sign of returning to 200) and based on te fact that the 4xx range is following the same 2xx range pattern

we can assume an increase in the future, this is for me the best TA we can have right now, the only way to have a good prediction is to analyze the most recent past movements

True. That's why I think fundamentals are important when using TA. After all, TA cannot predict a financial market meltdown or an oil supply glut until things are already in motion. I agree with you on probabilities: The fundamentals and TA both seem to point to higher prices, but we can't say for sure or by how much.