The Bitcoin price is stair-casing up, which is a strong bullish trend. The bears are also getting exhausted trying to pick the top for selling.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigHourlyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvSee Jan 25, Feb 2 and Feb 10. Each time the sell-off is weaker and weaker.
The (short-term) end to the stair-case will be a blow-off top, where the price spikes 2 or 3 dollars in a day and retreats. There was a small such top on Jan 25 when it went from $19 to $19.75 very quickly and was kicked back down straightaway. The bears saw it and sold off hard in a bout of profit-taking which had the price back to around $15.80.
From the current price of $24, a top would be signalled by a sudden spike into the high-20s and retreat. In the event of massive profit-taking the price could retrace to $21 as this seems the next strongest support level.
Any thoughts?
I'd agree that it is hugging a trendline rather well. I'm wary however - just like you are, because we both know that any selloff should be rather panic-fueled once it gets underway. The only comfort is that the recent selloffs haven't gone as far as they would've in 2011.
It has been a lot of fun to chart it, in any case.
