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DGulari
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April 06, 2016, 05:05:02 PM
 #21

Satoshi got this part wrong.  

What if bitcoin were still around $1 - $2 which is probably what satoshi was expecting.  Then, there'd be no ASICs, or only small ones.  Just thousands of BlockErupters each costing $100.  It'd take almost forever to ROI.  Nobody would develop 14um - way too expensive.  This would have been ideal.

But, bitcoin got WAY too popular too fast.   This means miners rushed to increase hash rate.  mining capacity went WAY up.  

This is how much the network consumes - precisely - and unambiguously

It is the average cost of electricity for all regions where mining is done, divided by the current reward rate (ie 25BTC soon to be 12.5).  

Just like sardines in the ocean.  The number of them depends precisely on the food available.  The population will grow with great efficiency until the food supply will be fully consumed.

The mining capacity will grow with great efficiency until nearly every penny is spent on electricity and the margin is tiny.  12.5BTC/10min is the food supply.  06 cents/kilowatt hour is the cost of electricity.  Therefore, the network will spend precisely $31,500 (6*12.5*$420) per hour buying electricity (presently (6*25*$420).  Mining profits are negligible - and always will be - because crazy fuckers will buy more machines the instant the margin rises slightly above zero.  100% of the reward rate is going to electricity.  (actually, miners have some other expenses too but we can just ignore them as small in comparison).  

Because the average cost for electricity is probably about $.05 or $.06/kWhr perhaps, the network uses (after the halfing):  525,000 kWatts!  ($31,500/.06).  About 500 Megawatts is the network consumption for the next coming four years.  No amount of adjustment or efficiency improvements can change that.  It is as fixed as the reward rate of 12.5BTC/10 minutes* (the food supply) (*assumes electricity rate average doesn't appreciably move from about $.06/kwhr).  

[But what if the sardines are smaller?  What if they are Japanese sardines.  Doesn't matter.  None of that matters.  Sardine breeding efficiency guarantees that the population will grow until it precisely consumes the food supply]

Bitcoin mining is the same.  It will very efficiently grow to meet precisely the food supply of 12.5BTC/block

WOW! Bitcoin network burns 500 Megawatts just to stay alive.  Smiley

The interesting thing is that this is a kind of 'tax' on the system.  It embodies itself as inflation.  New money comes into the network and gets burned off as payments to electricity suppliers at a rate of $31,500/hour.  Truth is, Bitcoin today is a VERY leaky system as a ton of value is being burned off by energizing guessing machines.  Yet, more suckers at a rate of $31,500 come every hour to join the herd.  The rest of bitcoin holders suffer this amount of 'dilution' as more units are in the network each block.  The good news, this stops in 2140.  Then, we'll pay for electricity purely with fees - but there will be zero inflation.  



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April 06, 2016, 05:16:56 PM
 #22

Bitcoin still the best never to use any alternative for bitcoin like any altcoin you mention.. and i think they can make a new miner that do not need to use a power to mine. so i will stay in bitcoin because is nearly accepting more bitcoins in my country..

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April 06, 2016, 05:20:46 PM
 #23

The cost of mining Bitcoins requires power to drive almost a whole country now. It's a crazy waste of energy.

In these times energy savings have more and more focus, but Bitcoin mining is going in the opposite direction by requiring more and more energy. It's bad for global warming and the Earth environment in general.

What can be done about that to keep Bitcoins going strong for the next decade?

As I see it one solution is using premined cryptocurrency like Rimbits. Any other alternatives?





well yes, if you want to start bitcoin mining now, then you are way too late to start it, because you will pay more for energy that you will get for bitcoins

and i am not sure but you could try to mine other new crypto, i think that it should give you profit
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April 06, 2016, 05:22:56 PM
 #24

in order to make some good money in mining right now you need to put a lot of money into it i think and you will surely need to get some free electricity in order to mine for decent profit

right now its not profitable to take up mining in my opinion and it will not be profitable for new investors for a long time as the difficulty is really high

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April 06, 2016, 05:26:08 PM
 #25

Bitcoin mining has been a bit like a social experiment.  Everyone could mine using their PC, not much energy expended and everyone had the required hardware.  But then GPUs came about, so people who wanted to continue to mine as before had to spend lots of money of stuff they didn't need, just to end up at the same point as they were already at before!

Then came ASICs, and people spend thousands, and waited months, difficulty increased and they ended up in the same position as they were before.  ASICs and GPUs don't actually help Bitcoin at all, a true non-botnet, CPU only coin would be much better.

It affirms the idea that in the gold mining boom, only the people selling the picks got rich. ASICs miners must love it!


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April 06, 2016, 05:31:03 PM
 #26

The cost of mining Bitcoins requires power to drive almost a whole country now. It's a crazy waste of energy.

In these times energy savings have more and more focus, but Bitcoin mining is going in the opposite direction by requiring more and more energy. It's bad for global warming and the Earth environment in general.

What can be done about that to keep Bitcoins going strong for the next decade?

As I see it one solution is using premined cryptocurrency like Rimbits. Any other alternatives?




YOu seem to be one of the bag holder of another altcoin or shitcoin (as premined coined are shit). We can encourage people to use solar power or green energy for mining. Shifting towards shit altcoin is not a good option.

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April 06, 2016, 05:37:01 PM
 #27

in order to make some good money in mining right now you need to put a lot of money into it i think and you will surely need to get some free electricity in order to mine for decent profit

right now its not profitable to take up mining in my opinion and it will not be profitable for new investors for a long time as the difficulty is really high
lol - some people just don't get it.

Put any amount of money you want - the result will be the same.  The margin is ZERO.  Put $1 or $100 million - your profit is going to be very near zero. 

'free electricity' you can get some free electricity from the same store where you get unicorns  - this doesn't exist.  You can steal electricity.  Even if a corrupt government helps you steal it, it is still stealing.  Why not just steal gold instead of electricity?  There is no free electricity. 

'a long time' - Never.  Long ago, some anomalies existed that made mining very profitable.  But, those are all gone now.  The hash rate will now and forever track the block reward.  Maybe someone will discover a machine that does 10X hash rate - but I seriously doubt it.  Those jumps - are all gone. 



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April 06, 2016, 06:00:01 PM
 #28

in order to make some good money in mining right now you need to put a lot of money into it i think and you will surely need to get some free electricity in order to mine for decent profit

right now its not profitable to take up mining in my opinion and it will not be profitable for new investors for a long time as the difficulty is really high
lol - some people just don't get it.

Put any amount of money you want - the result will be the same.  The margin is ZERO.  Put $1 or $100 million - your profit is going to be very near zero. 

'free electricity' you can get some free electricity from the same store where you get unicorns  - this doesn't exist.  You can steal electricity.  Even if a corrupt government helps you steal it, it is still stealing.  Why not just steal gold instead of electricity?  There is no free electricity. 

'a long time' - Never.  Long ago, some anomalies existed that made mining very profitable.  But, those are all gone now.  The hash rate will now and forever track the block reward.  Maybe someone will discover a machine that does 10X hash rate - but I seriously doubt it.  Those jumps - are all gone. 


it depend what mining, if you talk about bitcoin mining then yes, it's a sum zero game at present, but not in the past

altcoin scene on the other hands it's profitable, now a bit less than before, but i've made plenty of bitcoin with altcoin, something so big, that i repayed my rig the same day i bought it
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April 06, 2016, 06:22:02 PM
 #29

ok there are 2 arguments.

1. the noob army wanting to become millionaires by mining on their laptop in their basement for no cost and million x % reward or to convince people to move over to their crap coin

2. people grabbing bad figures to make bitcoin sound worse than visa.

so here is something for you both
1. noob army:
if it only cost 25c a day to mine a block.. where the reward was 12.5btc@$420 ($5250).. within a few hours you would have 21000 people doing it.. and everyone would only be getting 25cents reward for their 25cents spend. some people that can afford to waste $5000 without caring will mine for 6 months without care knowing somewhere along the line people will drop off as they are making zero profit. and so those that hang on will get 26cents+ for their 25cent spend.

basically it doesnt matter if bitcoin is 25cents every 10 minutes or $10,000.. if there is a chance of profit and outlasting competition.. there will always be competition... the more competition there is the more it will cost you to stay in the game.

so changing how the mining is divided/costed is meaningless and only a short term change before things go back to current situations.

2. bad figures.
the $6/tx cost is the average transactions per block divided by the fiat value of the block reward..
NOT the amount of watts multiplied by the petahash used.

so lets use that lame math against visa..

visa makes 2.5% on each transaction for $1.5trillion = $37.5billion fee per year.
then with the number of transactions being 900million customers doing an average 40tx/year= 36bill..

visa works out as being $1.04 a tx
but like i say, im using the same lame mindset of maths that the guys who quote bitcoin as being $6 right now..

so lets compare it to bitcoin 2017(knowing reward is decreasing and capacity is increasing to be more cost effective)..
with 2mb+segwit allowing for 7600 tx and a 12.5btc reward. thats $0.70c (if the price of bitcoin is also still $420 next year)

so i just laugh when people try to make excuses as to why people should stop using bitcoin for either crappy fiat/altcoin/offchain possibilities.
after all in a year. the "cost" (emphasising for comedy) would be cheaper than visa.

but atleast that "cost" using bitcoin is covered by fresh minted coins. and not via forced fee's coming out of peoples pockets

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April 06, 2016, 08:11:31 PM
 #30

The cost of mining Bitcoins requires power to drive almost a whole country now. It's a crazy waste of energy.

In these times energy savings have more and more focus, but Bitcoin mining is going in the opposite direction by requiring more and more energy. It's bad for global warming and the Earth environment in general.

What can be done about that to keep Bitcoins going strong for the next decade?

As I see it one solution is using premined cryptocurrency like Rimbits. Any other alternatives?




i'm not miners,i dont know how much energy consume by mining devices,and maybe you are right about this.its crazy waste of energy,we know that som many people around the world getting hard to find electric energy.

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April 06, 2016, 10:35:04 PM
 #31

Well the all energy being spent by bitcoin miners is helping the economy since they are selling the energy they would be wasting or not able to deliver as no one needed it.About the concetp of bitcoin growed too fast i believe yes  the early adopters got insane when they wake up with 400 dollars and above ammounts.Others choosed to invest their portfolio into bitcoin making it double or much more,its interesting to know that they are able to make atleast 3-4x more the bill of energy they have,soo the most of them has already roi.
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April 07, 2016, 05:11:12 AM
 #32

cbreum maybe a crusader, but you are a sophist. You make the premise that USD needs those computers to stay alive. What you intently forget to say, is that those who have the resources (eg the money) to pay for the kind of computers farm needed to keep Bitcoin alive are just a few. So, these very limited group of people controls the game. And, as it costs more and more to keep the mining process alive, even those who actually control this won't have enough resources to keep all the system alive sooner or later. Added to that, and in 2016 it is a well known fact, global warming is no secret and we should not discard this as easily as some seem to do. So comparing banks with miners is pointless as banks does not create currencies, they manage them.

This is very well said CelluleRB. Yes the banks computers are NOT artificially created to run one specific task. No they are "normal" computers able to do many things. Among them as you say manage currencies, but also do account transactions, stock trades etc. All are NOT expensive task in computer power.

And for global warming Bitcoin is the an example of a system that is selfish and ignore the impact the system has on global warming. Since Bitcoins are not that big the impact is really nothing compared to burning fossil fuel or livestock (I "sadly" eat meat myself), but the nonsense of mining is really the totally wrong signal to send to the rest of the world.

It's one of the prime reason for me to support Rimbit that are premined.
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April 07, 2016, 05:13:11 AM
 #33

Well the all energy being spent by bitcoin miners is helping the economy since they are selling the energy they would be wasting or not able to deliver as no one needed it.About the concetp of bitcoin growed too fast i believe yes  the early adopters got insane when they wake up with 400 dollars and above ammounts.Others choosed to invest their portfolio into bitcoin making it double or much more,its interesting to know that they are able to make atleast 3-4x more the bill of energy they have,soo the most of them has already roi.

This is such a false statement. The energy would not end in a void. How can you say nonsense like that?
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April 07, 2016, 06:01:28 AM
 #34

But the problem is that the power bill is being paid ONLY by the mining firms. And if they cannot mine enough BTC to pay the bills...then POOF goes the netwotk and BTC

In the USA, yes lots of PCs but each person pays his own. Every BTC user is only paying a miniscule amount for the transaction confirmation, and this isn't near enough to help out the miners with their massive power requirements

Well said! And true.

Personal PC is not waste of power. Banks PC and systems are not waste of power. Bitcoin mining is totally waste of energy and much more expensive than the power used for the power in banks for the same amount of transactions

Do not pull statements from your ass, to troll here and promote your new Alt coin. There is NO way that Bitcoin use more power than banks. Apart from that, the minerals and metals to create coins and notes have to be mined and then printed. This consumes a lot of electricity. How many vehicles are needed to transport cash to ATM's daily?

Count all that together and you will find that the Bitcoin energy footprint is much smaller than what is required to run the fiat system.

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April 07, 2016, 12:10:19 PM
 #35

basically it doesnt matter if bitcoin is 25cents every 10 minutes or $10,000.. if there is a chance of profit and outlasting competition.. there will always be competition... the more competition there is the more it will cost you to stay in the game.

I think that your theory is wrong here.  There is now less competition - BTC is mined by very few (something like 20 odd Chinese companies account for the vast majority of it) compared to a few years ago when "everyone" could have and run a rig.  So there is less competition but it costs astronomic amounts to stay in the game and mine.

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April 07, 2016, 12:28:01 PM
 #36

...
2. bad figures.
the $6/tx cost is the average transactions per block divided by the fiat value of the block reward..
NOT the amount of watts multiplied by the petahash used.

The figures are fine, 'long as you don't edit like an angry assburger:
...
Well, Bitcoin can handle ~3 transactions per second, which is roughly the number of transactions generated by a small US SHOPPING MALL.
So yeah, an obscene waste of power, currently ~$6 per *single fucking transaction* Undecided

Edit: actually ~$6 is the total tx cost, the power costs are more like ~$3 per tx, at Chinese (subsidized) power rates.
1. The edit was made within 10 minutes of the post being made. Otherwise, the timestamp would be underlined/last edit time could be checked by hovering the pointer over the timestamp:


2. The $3 per tx power cost is very generous, based on the assumption that blocks are always full.
Which they are not. If blocks are only 50% full, we're back to $6/tx.
Fail again, Frankie  Sad

Quote
so lets use that lame math against visa..

visa makes 2.5% on each transaction for $1.5trillion = $37.5billion fee per year.

then with the number of transactions being 900million customers doing an average 40tx/year= 36bill..

visa works out as being $1.04 a tx
but like i say, im using the same lame mindset of maths that the guys who quote bitcoin as being $6 right now..

so lets compare it to bitcoin 2017(knowing reward is decreasing and capacity is increasing to be more cost effective)..
with 2mb+segwit allowing for 7600 tx and a 12.5btc reward. thats $0.70c (if the price of bitcoin is also still $420 next year)
1. Visa does not make 2.5% on every tx.
2. Visa's main costs are meat & brick & regulations, electricity costs barely factor in; Bitcoin's main costs are electricity.
3. "7600 tx and a 12.5btc reward. thats $0.70c" will only happen if the new, "4MB" blocks are 100% full, all the time. The blocks aren't even full now, at 1/4 the size. $.70 also assumes that miners are charging *nothing in tx fees,* just 'coz they're nice. 0-fee tx are already history, and are certain to be forgotten once the miners start making *half as much from block rewards* when teh Halvening cometh.

Quote
so i just laugh when people try to make excuses as to why people should stop using bitcoin for either crappy fiat/altcoin/offchain possibilities.
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April 07, 2016, 12:31:55 PM
 #37

The cost of mining Bitcoins requires power to drive almost a whole country now. It's a crazy waste of energy.

In these times energy savings have more and more focus, but Bitcoin mining is going in the opposite direction by requiring more and more energy. It's bad for global warming and the Earth environment in general.

What can be done about that to keep Bitcoins going strong for the next decade?

As I see it one solution is using premined cryptocurrency like Rimbits. Any other alternatives?




i'm not miners,i dont know how much energy consume by mining devices,and maybe you are right about this.its crazy waste of energy,we know that som many people around the world getting hard to find electric energy.
if the miner have an alternate energi just like solar panel,or anything similiar, i think it'll not going to have a problem, and you can make big energi just using a nuclear Electric power

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April 07, 2016, 12:38:44 PM
 #38

...
if the miner have an alternate energi just like solar panel,or anything similiar, i think it'll not going to have a problem, and you can make big energi just using a nuclear Electric power

Yeah, that would be real nice. Sadly, the opposite is true: Bitcoin is mined with the cheapest electricity available, which is coal-fired, in China.

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April 07, 2016, 01:24:06 PM
 #39

main reasons
1. the reward halving mentions income reduced to 50% so people start to wonder how will miners get paid.
2. americans want to get into mining but paying out $1000 for an asic folowed by regular electric bills they realise they are not profitable(to western consumers)

they simply dont understant that pools can change and different pools can take over.
they dont understand the fiat valuation can change to compensate.

they do not understand that unless they are the manufacturers that then start mining within hours of production. instead of purchasing at the expensive retail cost with lengthy delivery, which means they will not get ROI.
bitcoin mining is profitable if you are at the forefront of the industry. remember bitmain charges customers $1000 because with that funds they can make 5+ units.. 1 for the customer and 4(free) to keep to themselves.

1 is easy to answer, miners will always be paid the way they're being paid so far, by mining Cheesy

As for the rest, I think the common topic in these threads is the environment, not profit.
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