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Author Topic: Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now  (Read 15690 times)
r0ach
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April 07, 2016, 04:14:30 AM
 #1

Most people in the speculation forum don't understand anything about Bitcoin mining.  The first thing you need to understand is, nobody running a current process node miner actually turns them off no matter what the price does.  You're either an ASIC dealer that spent millions on research and design to make it, or some random Joe that paid a big premium for one.  Turning them off makes no sense for anyone since Bitcoin is an asymmetric investment.  Unless you're mining with crazy expensive electricity, your current generation miner will either pay off eventually, or Bitcoin will go to 0.  There's no purpose in turning it off.  

If you're mining, you likely already own coins, and increasing hash power just drives the price up of the ones you already have as well.  Trust me, I've rented out like 80% of the hashpower of entire altcoins.  Since the amount of miners deployed increased a lot with the recent price increase, this means the floor miners will stop selling at raised too.  If the majority of the network is composed of ASICs that are supposed to be technologically viable, or even near their ROI period at all, but the sell rate is not favorable to that, they will simply stop selling, supply withers to nothing, then the price boom occurs.

Miners also tend to mine at a loss in hopes of future returns (being a deflationary system and all) long before turning their miners off.  If the miners do begin to mine at a loss ,they will then also go buy coins off the wall to dollar cost average because we've already determined they aren't turning the miners off.  It is 100% inevitable price increases after halving.  Post halving price is a function of what the market can bear pre-halving.  We've already seen the Mike Hearn R3 propaganda scare dumps where the market didn't drop that much then rebounded anyway.  There's not a problem with the market supporting this ballpark of pre-halving price of around a 420 floor.  

No matter how you look at it, post halving, in one way or another, through multiple dynamics, the supply will decrease propotional to demand.  Mining is a form of demand.  Mining is a decentralized exchange, Coinbase is a centralized exchange.  The price could increase 50%, it could increase 100%, or depending how elastic demand is, it could go much higher through a big shock in supply side distortion.  Around 75% of Bitcoin has already been mined, so the hard part, the putting money up front to capitalize the accumulation period, is already done.  Now the people who have accumulated just wait for inflation to drop, like it's about to do, then send the market higher.  The market will move through both predictable laws of economics and whale engineering at the same time.

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April 07, 2016, 04:38:34 AM
 #2

Ok thank you Roach for that.  I'm not sure I agree with you 100% about mining being a form of demand and I don't think the halving is going to change the supply-demand curve at all.  That's the part I have a problem with.

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April 07, 2016, 04:44:59 AM
 #3

Roach has it spot on, the pre-halving will drive the price up 50% at least and then the aftermath could/might be epic into 4 figures. And, that all depends upon where the worldwide financial system is at that point which could mean 5 digit territory.
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April 07, 2016, 04:45:59 AM
 #4

I will explain it more simply.

Ethereum speculators and Bitcoin shorters:



Bitcoin longs:


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April 07, 2016, 04:49:52 AM
 #5

Roach has it spot on, the pre-halving will drive the price up 50% at least and then the aftermath could/might be epic into 4 figures. And, that all depends upon where the worldwide financial system is at that point which could mean 5 digit territory.
What pre-halving? When is this you're making this prediction for?

Lol walking dead comics.  We'll see which way the slaughter goes, if there is a slaughter.

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April 07, 2016, 05:02:52 AM
 #6

<r0ach> using Descartes style reductionism, you can define Bitcoin in one sentence:  The purpose of mining is to create a permanent two way peg, decentralized exchange, which thus results in a permissionless system.

<r0ach> 99% of these speculators don't even know Bitcoin has a decentralized exchange or how it has effects on price

<r0ach> and you still have PhDs and Thiel award winners who can't comprehend that statement and are creating closed entropy, permissioned ledgers of no value

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April 07, 2016, 05:14:45 AM
 #7

<r0ach> using Descartes style reductionism, you can define Bitcoin in one sentence:  The purpose of mining is to create a permanent two way peg, decentralized exchange, which thus results in a permissionless system.

<r0ach> 99% of these speculators don't even know Bitcoin has a decentralized exchange or how it has effects on price

<r0ach> and you still have PhDs and Thiel award winners who can't comprehend that statement and are creating closed entropy, permissioned ledgers of no value


You seem to be onto something.   Wink

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April 07, 2016, 05:19:42 AM
 #8

I love it, minutes after I make this post:



Notice how many miles away that fake wall is from the buy/sell convergence point.

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April 07, 2016, 05:50:33 AM
 #9

Meh OP, you sound like the guind of guy that is emotionally attached to bitcoin's price. It's highly likely that the halving is priced in, just look at this 6 month chart, longterm support is basically nonexistent.















 

 

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April 07, 2016, 06:15:51 AM
 #10

I love it, minutes after I make this post:



Notice how many miles away that fake wall is from the buy/sell convergence point.

The goyim know- Shut it down.
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April 07, 2016, 06:25:58 AM
 #11

It's highly likely that the halving is priced in

It's not possible if you actually know how mining works.

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Amph
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April 07, 2016, 06:34:25 AM
 #12

It's highly likely that the halving is priced in

It's not possible if you actually know how mining works.

actually it was priced in before the diff increased(immediately after the pump in two 3 days), but we all know that the diff catch the value fast enough
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April 07, 2016, 06:37:59 AM
 #13

It's highly likely that the halving is priced in

It's not possible if you actually know how mining works.

He could be right you know (the r0ach I mean)... the epic disappointment when the halvening cargo cult's wicker aircraft and tattered costumes fail to attract the desired response could do wonders for the number of available (previously mined) bitcoin.

20x gains just from watching a calendar... what could go wrong?
solitude
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April 07, 2016, 06:38:45 AM
 #14

I gotta say I cringe every time I hear some idiot say the halving is "priced in"

They have no understanding of economics or supply and demand.

People were saying that cringey retarded line before the November 2012 halving too, and I must confess, I didn't completely understand at the time why I went from receiving one BTC a week for mining with a shitty Radeon GPU to 1/2 a BTC after the halving.

Look where the price went shortly after the first halving:  $12 to over $266

Hardly anyone speaks English on this forum.
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April 07, 2016, 07:43:06 AM
 #15

The miners have no other choice then to switch off their machines when debt catches up to them. Mining companies will go bankrupt and accumulated coins will be dumped on the markets, when the inexperienced kids finally find out that the "a) buy equipment b) turn on equipment c) ? d) profit" plan wasn't exactly clever.



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April 07, 2016, 07:46:04 AM
 #16

Finally,someone said it.Still waiting on the day when these newbies will stop getting carried away with all the superficial hype.Miners will certainly not stop mining as they still get the transaction fees for resolving the blocks.Don't know what's so doubtful about it.

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April 07, 2016, 08:37:54 AM
 #17

it is the same story all over again.
if i wasn't so lazy i would have searched the forum and listed all the topics from the last halving and people saying halving has priced in and price is not gonna rise. now we all know how that ended by that time.

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April 07, 2016, 09:01:07 AM
 #18

it is the same story all over again.
if i wasn't so lazy i would have searched the forum and listed all the topics from the last halving and people saying halving has priced in and price is not gonna rise. now we all know how that ended by that time.

Yes, it rose substantially before the halving and then was fairly flat for a couple months after the halving until the Cyprus bubble began.

I think Litecoin's halving is more relevant since it was just last year. In that case, there was a bubble caused by all the halving hype (plus the steep increase in general crypto prices). The bubble popped just before the halving and the slide continued past the halving. It stopped falling and has been flat ever since.

I believe that Bitcoin will behave similarly except that any halving hype bubble will be limited by the block size drama and the "death spiral" hysteria.

it is always like this, there is a flat line with a nearly stable price (maybe small sparks here and there) and everybody accumulating and then something happens (and it doesn't matter what if you ask me) and then price explodes.

i say this time it is going to be the block size after halving. whether it is segwit, lightning network or classic; as soon as it becomes certain the price will explode.

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April 07, 2016, 09:48:14 AM
 #19

it is the same story all over again.
if i wasn't so lazy i would have searched the forum and listed all the topics from the last halving and people saying halving has priced in and price is not gonna rise. now we all know how that ended by that time.

Yes, it rose substantially before the halving and then was fairly flat for a couple months after the halving until the Cyprus bubble began.

I think Litecoin's halving is more relevant since it was just last year. In that case, there was a bubble caused by all the halving hype (plus the steep increase in all crypto prices). The bubble popped just before the halving and the drop continued past the halving. It stopped falling and has been flat ever since.

I believe that Bitcoin will behave similarly except that any halving hype bubble will be limited by the block size drama and the "death spiral" hysteria.

As far as I know there was this big Litecoin Ponzi scheme going on in china.That was the reason why the price rose.And as that Ponzi collapsed right before the halving, the price declined and halving had no further influence.

By the way here is some interesting old thread regarding first halving 2012.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101485.0

marcus_of_augustus
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April 07, 2016, 10:28:07 AM
 #20

The halving maybe partially priced in psychologically but practically it wont affect the market until 3-6 months after halving.

r0ach is correct when he says
Quote
this means the floor miners will stop selling at raised too.

The cost of production floor set by well-capitalised miners' unwillingness to sell at a loss (or even go to buy at the market) is the great secret of bitcoin that prevents it from collapsing totally during downswings.

Halving the block reward effectively doubles the cost of production overnight, thus raising the floor. Without an equivalent decrease in difficulty, it then takes some months to work through the system that bitcoins will 'never' be that cheap to acquire again.

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