Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now

[dooglus]

The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.

... ummm, by doing what exactly? Most people are stupid and lazy and wont act until they have to, usually when it is too late. And what can they do exactly, produce more coins now in anticipation of the halving??

By not selling my coins.

If I was a miner and I believed roach that the forthcoming halving isn't priced in then I would stop selling the coins that I am mining for a couple of months. Why would I sell now for $400 each if I could wait 2 months and sell the same coins for $800 each? Maybe I would have to sell some of them to cover expenses, but I would certainly hold onto the rest.

This, of course, would reduce the supply and so increase the price. This, of course, is what we mean when we say the halving is already "priced in".

So much ignorance, especially the so called hero and legendary level members, they should be ashamed. It just proves they're mostly bulltards who are waiting to unload their bags on unsuspecting victims noobs. F&ck'em all.

I am very open to being convinced that I am wrong. I am waiting for an argument that shows how the halving can't possibly already be priced in. But it seems all people have to offer is name calling. I'm not sure what you mean by "bulltards". I'm bullish on BTC price personally. Are you suggesting that there is something wrong in attempting to "buy low sell high"? Either way, I'm not waiting to "unload" - I hold BTC because historically it has performed better than any other asset class I am aware of. If the price drops it's not a big problem, and if it rises I still won't be in any hurry to sell.

while cutting non-float coins in half can even give you no effect on the market, cutting newly mined coins in half is where the big effect happens.

This is true. BUT we all already know that the newly mined supply will be halving soon. As a miner why wouldn't you already be slowing the rate at which you are selling to take advantage of the post-halving price rise, and in doing so be pricing the halving in right now?

As long as new bitcoins are being mined, the supply is increasing.

Yes, of course. The halving doesn't really halve the supply, it only halves the first derivative of the supply. The supply grows only half as fast as it did before. But I was trying to keep things simple. The subject of this thread says "Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now" yet not a single argument has been made here as to why it is not possible. I think the thread is really nothing but an attempt to pump the price, disguised as an argument, which is why when I try to engage people here all I get back is insults. They're on "team pump" and since I'm arguing with them I must be on "team dump". In reality I am on "team logic", but they don't seem to speak logic.

[1713273664]

1713273664

[1713273664]

1713273664

[snoovering]

... In reality I am on "team logic" ...

You came to the wrong neighborhood, mothafukkah

[dooglus]

... In reality I am on "team logic" ...

You came to the wrong neighborhood, mothafukkah

Sure looks that way.

I maintain that he started it with his provocative title.

Maybe consider changing it. Here are some suggestions:

    "Halving guide for noobs:  Why I really really hope the halving is not priced in now"
    "Halving guide for noobs:  The halving is not priced in now. Because I said so"
    "Halving guide for noobs:  The halving is not priced in now. Because billionaires diversify, Soros is bent, and dooglus can't tie his own shoelaces"

[zimmah]

The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.

... ummm, by doing what exactly? Most people are stupid and lazy and wont act until they have to, usually when it is too late. And what can they do exactly, produce more coins now in anticipation of the halving??

By not selling my coins.

If I was a miner and I believed roach that the forthcoming halving isn't priced in then I would stop selling the coins that I am mining for a couple of months. Why would I sell now for $400 each if I could wait 2 months and sell the same coins for $800 each? Maybe I would have to sell some of them to cover expenses, but I would certainly hold onto the rest.

This, of course, would reduce the supply and so increase the price. This, of course, is what we mean when we say the halving is already "priced in".

So much ignorance, especially the so called hero and legendary level members, they should be ashamed. It just proves they're mostly bulltards who are waiting to unload their bags on unsuspecting victims noobs. F&ck'em all.

I am very open to being convinced that I am wrong. I am waiting for an argument that shows how the halving can't possibly already be priced in. But it seems all people have to offer is name calling. I'm not sure what you mean by "bulltards". I'm bullish on BTC price personally. Are you suggesting that there is something wrong in attempting to "buy low sell high"? Either way, I'm not waiting to "unload" - I hold BTC because historically it has performed better than any other asset class I am aware of. If the price drops it's not a big problem, and if it rises I still won't be in any hurry to sell.

while cutting non-float coins in half can even give you no effect on the market, cutting newly mined coins in half is where the big effect happens.

This is true. BUT we all already know that the newly mined supply will be halving soon. As a miner why wouldn't you already be slowing the rate at which you are selling to take advantage of the post-halving price rise, and in doing so be pricing the halving in right now?

As long as new bitcoins are being mined, the supply is increasing.

Yes, of course. The halving doesn't really halve the supply, it only halves the first derivative of the supply. The supply grows only half as fast as it did before. But I was trying to keep things simple. The subject of this thread says "Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now" yet not a single argument has been made here as to why it is not possible. I think the thread is really nothing but an attempt to pump the price, disguised as an argument, which is why when I try to engage people here all I get back is insults. They're on "team pump" and since I'm arguing with them I must be on "team dump". In reality I am on "team logic", but they don't seem to speak logic.

I think very few people speak logic nowadays, at least in my experience.

I think the halving might have an effect on the price, but probably not immediatly and it might not be as severe as many hope.     

Sure it will reduce supply of new coins, but like you said many miners could already be holding, and miners aren't the only sellers either.   

I don't really care if the price rises fast or slow, all I know is the price is likely to rise eventually.

[piranha]

I got a feeling .. And that's all it is, but because most people in general believe the price will go up. That by itself could/will make it a self fulfilling prophecy. Kind of like predictive markets, the more people that believe something will happen a certain way, its tends to be the correct answer. So in my opinion the price isn't baked in yet.  

[Dafar]

I got a feeling .. And that's all it is, but because most people in general believe the price will go up. That by itself could/will make it a self fulfilling prophecy. Kind of like predictive markets, the more people that believe something will happen a certain way, its tends to be the correct answer. So in my opinion the price isn't baked in yet.  

From my experience, when most people believe something the exact opposite happens. Don't be blinded by the hype, bitcoin is known for its surprises

[Amph]

I got a feeling .. And that's all it is, but because most people in general believe the price will go up. That by itself could/will make it a self fulfilling prophecy. Kind of like predictive markets, the more people that believe something will happen a certain way, its tends to be the correct answer. So in my opinion the price isn't baked in yet.  

From my experience, when most people believe something the exact opposite happens. Don't be blinded by the hype, bitcoin is known for its surprises

this is true only to a certain extend, if something is bound to happen it will happen no matter what everyone think

there are some things that you know ahead of time that they will happen at 100%, just by feeling

[BTCLovingDude]

I got a feeling .. And that's all it is, but because most people in general believe the price will go up. That by itself could/will make it a self fulfilling prophecy. Kind of like predictive markets, the more people that believe something will happen a certain way, its tends to be the correct answer. So in my opinion the price isn't baked in yet. 

From my experience, when most people believe something the exact opposite happens. Don't be blinded by the hype, bitcoin is known for its surprises

the price of bitcoin does not change with what people are feeling!

although it is effective because it creates hype and sometimes panic which leads to rise and fall, it is not the main deriving force behind market changes.

[r0ach]

All sig spammers please roast in hell.

[Chef Ramsay]

All sig spammers please roast in hell.

Preach it bro! Let's get some money soon.

[jubalix]

the whole point of btc is you can have certainty about supply, so why cant you price that in?

[JayJuanGee]

the whole point of btc is you can have certainty about supply, so why cant you price that in?

of course you can price it in, and a whole hell-of-a lot of other people can price it in too; however, all of those people still do not make the whole market or the market behavior from those known events there continue to remain a lot of unknowns, including a number of market actors who do not realize the impact and whose actions cannot be predicted ahead of time. 

Therefore, halfing is only partially priced in because market information is imperfect (even with known factors) and humans are not completely rational... and accordingly, the behaviors of some irrational people are going to affect the rational and irrational behaviors of others, creating even more unknowns.

[classicsucks]

the price of bitcoin does not change with what people are feeling!

although it is effective because it creates hype and sometimes panic which leads to rise and fall, it is not the main deriving force behind market changes.

One of your statements must be false - you've contradicted yourself. The preceding statement is true. The followng statement may be false.

I think bitcoin price changes ONLY based on what people are feeling, based on the information they have gathered. Just like the Wall Street markets in this regard.

[r0ach]

the whole point of btc is you can have certainty about supply, so why cant you price that in?

Number one, because as I already mentioned, there is a factor of time opportunity cost.  Nobody knows when the payoff for holding is supposed to begin, so the market has to figure it out in a battle on the orderbooks.  Your post is also kind of a contradiction in itself, seeing as how this is a deflationary currency where numerous coins are lost per year.  On an infinite timeline the price nears infinity, so why isn't the price infinity now?  Because as I said it's IMPOSSIBLE to be priced in due to time opportunity cost.

[r0ach]

Around $443 looks like is the bottom of this move.

[dooglus]

the whole point of btc is you can have certainty about supply, so why cant you price that in?

Number one, because as I already mentioned, there is a factor of time opportunity cost.

I can't find a definition of that term, but I did find this: time value of money. Is that what you're talking about?

I can see that since it would be possible to gain a small return over the next month or two there's no point in bidding the price of BTC all the way up to the post-halving price now. But since interest rates are so low you would still expect the halving to be mostly priced in already.

Nobody knows when the payoff for holding is supposed to begin, so the market has to figure it out in a battle on the orderbooks.

You were claiming that the payoff would happen at the halving and that it is impossible for any gain from the halving to already be priced in. I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in. I am yet to see any kind of logical argument for your position.

[Syke]

I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in.

This. It's a sliding scale. As we near halving, the halving becomes more priced in. There won't be an instant price jump the moment the halving occurs.

[r0ach]

I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in.

This. It's a sliding scale. As we near halving, the halving becomes more priced in. There won't be an instant price jump the moment the halving occurs.

Nah, there's a difference between economic expectations and economic reality.  People guess at what effect it will have beforehand in hopes of making a profit, then the mining supply is cut in half afterwards and it changes from random gamblers messing around in the market to the equivalent of someone flipping a light switch to turn gravity on.

If the random gamblers have overextended themselves above what the market can bear post-halving, then the price would go down.  If the random gamblers have not, then it goes up.  The fact that the price had a solid floor around $420 for a LONG TIME even with constant daily China dumpings means the market is obviously not overextended.

[JayJuanGee]

I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in.

This. It's a sliding scale. As we near halving, the halving becomes more priced in. There won't be an instant price jump the moment the halving occurs.

Nah, there's a difference between economic expectations and economic reality.  People guess at what effect it will have beforehand in hopes of making a profit, then the mining supply is cut in half afterwards and it changes from random gamblers messing around in the market to the equivalent of someone flipping a light switch to turn gravity on.

If the random gamblers have overextended themselves above what the market can bear post-halving, then the price would go down.  If the random gamblers have not, then it goes up.  The fact that the price had a solid floor around $420 for a LONG TIME even with constant daily China dumpings means the market is obviously not overextended.

I agree with almost everything you say, rOach; however, I would hardly characterize $420 as a "LONG TIME" floor.

For almost a year (late 2014 and through a lot of 2015), we did witness $220-ish as a kind of floor that was infrequently breached.

After the price spike from $230-ish to $500 (from August 2015 to November 2015), there was a period of finding the new floor, and I would argue that to had become, largely, floating in the range of $360 to $460, and we are still in that floating.. but slowly floating upwards in that range and likely to break out of that range.  The NOT priced in nature of the halvening is likely only part of the story concerning why we are soon on the precipice of a 5x to 10x bubble, which could actually take a year or so to play out.... and then likely bring us into the range of having a floor in the $2k territory...

Anyhow, I largely agree with you, rOach, and surely none of us have crystal balls that actually work...  .

[marcus_of_augustus]

I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in.

This. It's a sliding scale. As we near halving, the halving becomes more priced in. There won't be an instant price jump the moment the halving occurs.

This. Is. What. Is.

The halving will be priced in on the day of the halving, not today. But on the day after the halving the material effect of the halving will be begin to be felt, and then that will be 'priced in'. 6 months after the halving the effect of 180,000 coins not coming to market will be then priced in also.