Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now

[katiecbell]

I wonder.. what will be the next unicorn for bitcoiners after the halving...

There have always been some fantastic excuse on why should people buy bitcoin. You have to buy bitcoin because Wall Street is waiting to pour in billions...you have to buy because after ETF, Wall Street will pour in billions.... you have to buy because the Gemini exchange will soon open and then Wall Street will pour in billions... you have to buy because of the halving will make everyone pour in billions. We have heard it all.

Any theories on what will be the next main sales pitch to attract new greater fools?

OK, I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. It's been many years since I mined, and a lot has changed, but I recognize mining-at-a-loss. But like many other experts keep on saying, I too believe halving will come to effect at any time sooner but mainly based on how many new people are coming into bitcoin system.

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[dooglus]

How is your bear position on the halving going Dooglus...

I am long Bitcoin, not short. I have no bear position. Did you think I said I did?

I think your statement that "it's not possible for halving to be priced in now" is incorrect, and asked whether you have any arguments to back it up.

I'm sorry if you misinterpreted that as me saying I have a "bear position", but if you go back and re-read what I said maybe you'll understand my position more clearly.

[Mobius]

Exactly, and people need to be aware of this.

[r0ach]

Another day, 50 more kwuckduck spam posts on front page.

[r0ach]

I hope the price going up so fast isn't scaring you Dooglus.

[dooglus]

I hope the price going up so fast isn't scaring you Dooglus.

I refer you to my previous answer, which you may not have noticed (since you didn't reply to it):

How is your bear position on the halving going Dooglus...

I am long Bitcoin, not short. I have no bear position. Did you think I said I did?

I think your statement that "it's not possible for halving to be priced in now" is incorrect, and asked whether you have any arguments to back it up.

I'm sorry if you misinterpreted that as me saying I have a "bear position", but if you go back and re-read what I said maybe you'll understand my position more clearly.

I am happy that the price is going up, of course. But I'm not short sighted enough to believe that it won't go down again too. I've been in this game long enough that the ups and downs don't bother me any more. I'm in it for the long haul.

[r0ach]

I'm just waiting for China to stop trying to block the rise on purpose.  It's clear the west has led in the rise while China has repeatedly attempted to stop it over and over.  Once they give up trying to manipulate downwards, it's going to fly up.  Eventually their tactical market sells and big walls like in the picture below are going to be reversed to try and raise price instead.  These dipshits are really trying hard to stop it from going over $450 or 3000 yuan:

[Cyaren]

Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.

In all deflationary scenarios the price of goods fall, in this case bitcoin will gain value, against fiat currencies.

The miners will be trying to make up for their losses - the most logical thing to do is not to sell the coins for a profit, but to hoard them for later sale when the price goes up again. This limits the supply of BTC available, perhaps for a few months until the price adjusts. But there is always going to the same demand for BTC. When demand outweighs supply, the price will naturally go up.

[r0ach]

Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.

In all deflationary scenarios the price of goods fall, in this case bitcoin will gain value, against fiat currencies.

The miners will be trying to make up for their losses - the most logical thing to do is not to sell the coins for a profit, but to hoard them for later sale when the price goes up again. This limits the supply of BTC available, perhaps for a few months until the price adjusts. But there is always going to the same demand for BTC. When demand outweighs supply, the price will naturally go up.

The only post I've ever seen from a sig ad poster that wasn't just spam.

[r0ach]

Coinbase $458.  RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers.  It's coming.

[classicsucks]

Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.

This is only true if velocity remains static. If velocity drops as coin supply does, it can be inflationary. Velocity could drop due to hoarding. The question becomes "which is greater, the utility of the coins versus the speculative volume?" I don't have a good answer for that yet.

The miners will be trying to make up for their losses - the most logical thing to do is not to sell the coins for a profit, but to hoard them for later sale when the price goes up again. This limits the supply of BTC available, perhaps for a few months until the price adjusts. But there is always going to the same demand for BTC. When demand outweighs supply, the price will naturally go up.

Demand for BTC could and likely will change radically based governmental interventions, possible hard forks, and further predictable scams and security breaches at exchanges. You don't think somebody is trying to devise a way to seize bitcoins right now?

[abercrombie]

Coinbase $458.  RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers.  It's coming.

itshappening.gif

[dooglus]

Coinbase $458.  RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers.  It's coming.

Are you claiming that the recent rise in price is related to the coming halving?

Previously you were saying that it is not possible for the increase due to the halving to happen before the halving, but now you seem to be saying the opposite?

Are you saying that the halving is somewhat priced in now?

You're confusing me.

[dumbfbrankings]

Coinbase $458.  RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers.  It's coming.

Are you claiming that the recent rise in price is related to the coming halving?

Previously you were saying that it is not possible for the increase due to the halving to happen before the halving, but now you seem to be saying the opposite?

Are you saying that the halving is somewhat priced in now?

You're confusing me.

No time to explain, just get in.

Bubble deniers? U foolish.

~Lucky Strike Halvening Posse~

[r0ach]

Coinbase $458.  RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers.  It's coming.

Are you claiming that the recent rise in price is related to the coming halving?

Previously you were saying that it is not possible for the increase due to the halving to happen before the halving, but now you seem to be saying the opposite?

Are you saying that the halving is somewhat priced in now?

You're confusing me.

No, I just said it's coming.

[Ultrafinery]

Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.

In all deflationary scenarios the price of goods fall, in this case bitcoin will gain value, against fiat currencies.
<snip>

1. "In a halving situation, the economy is" NOT "in a deflationary scenario." Decreasing base money supply and "economy [experiencing] a deflationary scenario" are two totally different things.
2. After the halvening, Bitcoin base money supply will continue to grow ("inflate"), just at a slower rate; will only be ~5%, instead of the ~10% we're seeing now.

[r0ach]

2. After the halvening, Bitcoin base money supply will continue to grow ("inflate"), just at a slower rate; will only be ~5%, instead of the ~10% we're seeing now.

4%, whore of babylon

[Ultrafinery]

2. After the halvening, Bitcoin base money supply will continue to grow ("inflate"), just at a slower rate; will only be ~5%, instead of the ~10% we're seeing now.

4%, whore of babylon

MYSTERY, BABYLON THE GREAT, THE MOTHER OF HARLOTS AND ABOMINATIONS OF THE EARTH!!!
https://youtu.be/eOtl0Zl-YYI
*Only if no difficulty increase, otherwise >4%, insect.

[marcus_of_augustus]

[r0ach]

Ethereum shills getting desperate.  They can't find anyone to dump their artificially pumped bubble on so they're even spamming this section now.