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Author Topic: Explanation for BTC price surge?  (Read 2757 times)
creativex
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February 12, 2013, 07:35:17 PM
 #21

Google trends "get bitcoins"

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22get+bitcoins%22&cmpt=q



Roughly 80% of the peak interest and roughly 80% of the peak price(not adjusted for inflation), though on a much more sustainable trajectory this time.

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February 12, 2013, 08:06:06 PM
Last edit: February 12, 2013, 08:38:01 PM by jwzguy
 #22

Possibly related: the new Mega site has 2 service voucher resellers that accept Bitcoin.

One exclusively. That one is located in NZ, and is using a new Bitcoin payment processor that also just popped up...and is also in NZ.
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February 12, 2013, 08:15:30 PM
 #23


investors look to invest in something from many different angles.  some prefer to invest in the stock of a company, others prefer debt.  others prefer venture capital or the IPO.  debt investors might prefer senior secured debt, others junk debt.  all of it matters when analyzing the prospects for that company's success.

while the analogy might not be perfect, in the Bitcoin economy, there are legions of ppl who prefer to mine to obtain Bitcoins.  they may be more comfortable with the technical aspects vs. speculating on an exchange.  they may have a particular expertise which allows them to extract more block rewards than the avg miner.  they may have access to free electricity.  they may just enjoy it more.

what matters is that they are putting their money, time, effort, and expertise into the Bitcoin ecosystem, period. it just happens to be in the form of mining.  and that mining increases the network security and efficiency which speculators/investors like myself value very highly and thus invest accordingly.  mining (ASIC's) is worth at least as much as the speculators and the merchants to ensuring Bitcoin's success.
I agree OP^

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February 12, 2013, 08:20:34 PM
 #24

Possibly related: the new Mega site has 2 service vouchers that accept Bitcoin.

One exclusively. That one is located in NZ, and is using a new Bitcoin payment processor that also just popped up...and is also in NZ.
smart guy Brian Cartmell

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February 12, 2013, 09:12:58 PM
 #25

#5 is ridiculous. You don't exactly kill bitcoin by buying up a large amount of bitcoin.. that just increases the value of everyone else's.


Sure you can kill (well not kill, it will live on at a much lower price) btc buy buying up a bunch. You buy a ton the price goes up you hold then off the market prices goes high and higher. Then you have a massive sell of. People buy into the hysteria, other sellers are no longer willing to sell they think they are going to get rich and say things like "we are all going to be weathy men" and the "price can only go up" and "there is always a bigger fool". So delusional IMO. Let SR shut down and see what it does to price.

I was selling 50-100 a day to my customers and when the price started shooting up I sold below spot. The reward should come from sharing BTC with the world not stashing it away like a troll. I stopped buying at 19, because I cant risk the volatility. I cant buy coins one day to have them devalue the next. If I were a seller on SR I would be looking for other options. It is great on the way up but, say you sold a lot and had all of your funds in BTC and while waiting for escrow to release of funds to transfer the bottom falls out, not a good position to be in. The speculation also punishes customers. The prices are not automated on SR So if sellers aren't changing the price every couple hours it inflates the price of their goods.

Treat it like money! Give it to the world. Stop being a bunch of greedy trolls. I promise the person/people that give it to the world are the ones who will windup rich. The person who gives the most number of people what they want will be the wealthy ones.

"It is not a good deal unless it is a good deal for everyone involved" 
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February 12, 2013, 10:04:54 PM
 #26

#5 is ridiculous. You don't exactly kill bitcoin by buying up a large amount of bitcoin.. that just increases the value of everyone else's.


Sure you can kill (well not kill, it will live on at a much lower price) btc buy buying up a bunch. You buy a ton the price goes up you hold then off the market prices goes high and higher. Then you have a massive sell of. People buy into the hysteria, other sellers are no longer willing to sell they think they are going to get rich and say things like "we are all going to be weathy men" and the "price can only go up" and "there is always a bigger fool". So delusional IMO. Let SR shut down and see what it does to price.

I was selling 50-100 a day to my customers and when the price started shooting up I sold below spot. The reward should come from sharing BTC with the world not stashing it away like a troll. I stopped buying at 19, because I cant risk the volatility. I cant buy coins one day to have them devalue the next. If I were a seller on SR I would be looking for other options. It is great on the way up but, say you sold a lot and had all of your funds in BTC and while waiting for escrow to release of funds to transfer the bottom falls out, not a good position to be in. The speculation also punishes customers. The prices are not automated on SR So if sellers aren't changing the price every couple hours it inflates the price of their goods.

Treat it like money! Give it to the world. Stop being a bunch of greedy trolls. I promise the person/people that give it to the world are the ones who will windup rich. The person who gives the most number of people what they want will be the wealthy ones.

"It is not a good deal unless it is a good deal for everyone involved" 


I've not used it, so I could be mistaken, but I was pretty sure I read that SR provides free escrow to sellers including an option to hold the funds in USD during the escrow period.  There are other options for hedging exchange rate as well.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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February 12, 2013, 10:58:17 PM
 #27

I havnt used it either, but i will look into it. I would be nervous if I was a seller with large volume right now.
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February 13, 2013, 10:02:52 AM
 #28

OP here. This turned into a great thread - so much expertise here.

A few thoughts:
 casino announcement - plus a half mil venture investment
 deflation event - or an early inflation signal for USD...
ppl who prefer to mine - rather than ppl who prefer to whine?

it feels to me like someone "knows something"

It does make sense that ASIC makers would pump capital into the currency
 (at least short-term). Or somebody long OpenCL ARM implementations
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February 13, 2013, 12:19:17 PM
 #29

My #1 reason is Bernanke's QE which creates bubbles in any thing that can be inflated. In fact, add Draghi, Abe, newcomer Carney, and all the other central bankers. They're all in a race to debase their currencies.

So it's not Bitcoin going up in my view, it's the dollar going down, plus too much printed fiat, which fills bubbles with hot air. And I would also think that Bitcoin is one of the things that can inflate beyond any expectation as there is no physical anchor to it.

If money supply was tight, people would not risk shit in bitcoins, or anything else for that matter. And please don't tell me that people are hungry and deprived, watch the price of commodities, stocks, and supermarket goods. Everywhere. Are they going down because people don't buy them anymore? I guess not. QED.

Everybody likes to speculate and find the hidden meaning of the latest price rally, conspiracies, hidden business plans, you name it. I believe that part of it is because everybody knows it's a very risky business, and as humans we want to try to find a rationale for getting involved in such a thing. None of the things mentioned in this thread or all the others which I have managed to read could justify such volatility, even if one takes into account the "instant" movement of Bitcoin currency for speculation purposes.

So, I would suggest that you sit down and enjoy it while it lasts, and not expect it to last forever. If you can't take the thrills of risky ventures, better get a salaried job. If you can, dive in, surf the wave, and when you go down with it, take it like a man.

My 2 cents worth


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DobZombie
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February 13, 2013, 12:35:28 PM
 #30

I predicted this 4 months ago.  Its the reward halving catching up with the price!

Miners being as stubborn as they are refused to cash out and sell off their GPUs.
Move 2-3 months down the track when bills are coming in, they ask for a bigger payback when selling.  This has pushed it up over the next month. 

That's why the difficulty barely changed in this period. It went up 5%, dropped 10%, then increased 10%.

I'm pretty confidant that the price will panic drop either the weekend of Sat 16th Feb, or Sat 23rd Feb.  Once we get over the drop it'll recover pretty quick (2-4 weeks).

Bitcoin will stabilise at about $28-$32 until something big happens (BTC business going bust or Somebody big adopting BTC (Wordpress style).

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meanig
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February 13, 2013, 12:57:41 PM
 #31


Sure you can kill (well not kill, it will live on at a much lower price) btc buy buying up a bunch. You buy a ton the price goes up you hold then off the market prices goes high and higher. Then you have a massive sell of. People buy into the hysteria, other sellers are no longer willing to sell they think they are going to get rich and say things like "we are all going to be weathy men" and the "price can only go up" and "there is always a bigger fool". So delusional IMO. Let SR shut down and see what it does to price.

I was selling 50-100 a day to my customers and when the price started shooting up I sold below spot. The reward should come from sharing BTC with the world not stashing it away like a troll. I stopped buying at 19, because I cant risk the volatility. I cant buy coins one day to have them devalue the next. If I were a seller on SR I would be looking for other options. It is great on the way up but, say you sold a lot and had all of your funds in BTC and while waiting for escrow to release of funds to transfer the bottom falls out, not a good position to be in. The speculation also punishes customers. The prices are not automated on SR So if sellers aren't changing the price every couple hours it inflates the price of their goods.

Treat it like money! Give it to the world. Stop being a bunch of greedy trolls. I promise the person/people that give it to the world are the ones who will windup rich. The person who gives the most number of people what they want will be the wealthy ones.

"It is not a good deal unless it is a good deal for everyone involved" 


For a small fee SR vendors can hedge their currency risk while in escrow and the BTC/USD rate is updated at least twice per day.

The buyers and vendors have become wise to the price volatility. They've come up with appropriate strategies for doing business. From what I can tell on the forums the price swings aren't stopping any commerce from happening. 
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February 13, 2013, 10:32:21 PM
 #32

Oh I see that is great it would be even better if it wasnt necessary. I wonder if there would be limits to the protection. For instance if it fell from 31 to 2 would you still be protected? That is pretty clever way to solve the problem. I wondered why some say hedged.
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February 14, 2013, 03:40:19 AM
 #33

From what I can tell on the forums the price swings aren't stopping any commerce from happening. 

BTC Uptrends wouldn't slow commerce that usually happens in USD - but downtrends could. I'd like to see a correlation...

BTC transactions are faster and easier online than most other options - this is what is driving the commerce.
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February 19, 2013, 05:40:37 AM
 #34


There are lots of reasons why the price is high right now, it has nothing to do with ASIC's or mining in any way.

i disagree with this.

investors look to invest in something from many different angles.  some prefer to invest in the stock of a company, others prefer debt.  others prefer venture capital or the IPO.  debt investors might prefer senior secured debt, others junk debt.  all of it matters when analyzing the prospects for that company's success.

while the analogy might not be perfect, in the Bitcoin economy, there are legions of ppl who prefer to mine to obtain Bitcoins.  they may be more comfortable with the technical aspects vs. speculating on an exchange.  they may have a particular expertise which allows them to extract more block rewards than the avg miner.  they may have access to free electricity.  they may just enjoy it more.

what matters is that they are putting their money, time, effort, and expertise into the Bitcoin ecosystem, period. it just happens to be in the form of mining.  and that mining increases the network security and efficiency which speculators/investors like myself value very highly and thus invest accordingly.  mining (ASIC's) is worth at least as much as the speculators and the merchants to ensuring Bitcoin's success.


I'm on-board with this line of thinking. I just sent an email to a friend essentially arguing this point, noting that the hashrate jumping an order of magnitude is a huge "fundamentals" win for bitcoin. That said, I don't see a linear cause and effect between hashrate and price increases, but they both essentially stem from and re-enforce strong fundamentals.



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