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Author Topic: bubble or bulltrap?  (Read 7055 times)
arepo
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this statement is false


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February 12, 2013, 11:18:11 AM
Last edit: February 12, 2013, 11:40:40 AM by arepo
 #1



the Detrended Price Oscillator suggests that this move up is an important breakout. bubble or bulltrap?

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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zby
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February 12, 2013, 11:22:14 AM
 #2

The weekend dip was the worst ever - someone tried hard to start it but failed.  This means two things first is that person will be buying, second people are again conditioned not to sell.  The first might result in a bull trap - the second is longer term.
arepo
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this statement is false


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February 12, 2013, 01:38:26 PM
 #3




the last time we re-entered the overbought (red) after crossing the centerline but not reaching blue, there was a significant correction.

this oscillator indicates the same thing as the OP, but could also mean either a bubble or a bulltrap.

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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Vladimir
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February 12, 2013, 01:44:20 PM
 #4

oscilators shmoscilators...

Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).

bubble or bulltrap? that was quite a loaded question. Why discount a possibility of it simply being a trending market? Wishful thinking much?

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arepo
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this statement is false


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February 12, 2013, 01:53:10 PM
 #5

the assumption is that is has been a trending market, but that it just broke out of that pattern (see the OP).

you disagree?

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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MJGrae
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Sold.


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February 12, 2013, 02:03:23 PM
 #6

I don't have access to my marked up chart at the moment, but even the most recent high of 25.7 was at the top of the trend channel, and it has slightly corrected since then with possibly more on the way. Based on that, I don't think there was a breakout, but the oscillator is possibly showing the increased exhaustion of moving higher at this point which worries me. I think we've got a short term correction to the bottom of the trend channel before anything else. My answer to your question is dependent on whether or not that small correction happens.
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February 12, 2013, 02:04:22 PM
 #7

the assumption is that is has been a trending market, but that it just broke out of that pattern (see the OP).

you disagree?

I do disagree. All I see on the chart in OP is a line which starts in bottom left corner and stops in top right corner. This is basically definition of a trending bullish market, the rest is noise.

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February 12, 2013, 02:13:35 PM
 #8

Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).

The Bitcoin market can remain stubborn and irrational (nonsensical term!) indefinitely because it is an equity based play where, currently, there is very little in the way of leverage instruments. That means holders of bitcoins can remain solvent indefinitely; there is no debt to service and no margin calls.

arepo
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this statement is false


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February 12, 2013, 02:16:26 PM
 #9

the assumption is that is has been a trending market, but that it just broke out of that pattern (see the OP).

you disagree?

I do disagree. All I see on the chart in OP is a line which starts in bottom left corner and stops in top right corner. This is basically definition of a trending bullish market, the rest is noise.


uh, that's not how oscillators work. unless you're talking about the price data?

'a line' doing anything means wildly different things depending on what that line represents. there are indicators which when trending up indicate downward pressure...

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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February 12, 2013, 02:21:38 PM
 #10

The real test for bitcoin's enthusiastic investors and speculators is the previous highest mark, which briefly touched $32 before plummeting down to barely more than $2. 
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February 12, 2013, 02:33:10 PM
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The real test for bitcoin's enthusiastic investors and speculators is the previous highest mark, which briefly touched $32 before plummeting down to barely more less than $2. 

FTFY. It was $1.99998

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February 12, 2013, 02:42:51 PM
 #12

The real test for bitcoin's enthusiastic investors and speculators is the previous highest mark, which briefly touched $32 before plummeting down to barely more than $2. 

There is nothing really significant about that high mark, since the supply has increased substantially since then. The valuation of all bitcoins is already higher than when the price was $32 per BTC:
https://blockchain.info/nl/charts/market-cap?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

My guess is that Pirate finally ran out of coins, or stopped selling Smiley
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February 12, 2013, 04:27:33 PM
 #13

the assumption is that is has been a trending market, but that it just broke out of that pattern (see the OP).

you disagree?

I do disagree. All I see on the chart in OP is a line which starts in bottom left corner and stops in top right corner. This is basically definition of a trending bullish market, the rest is noise.


Heh... is it true that you've stopped beating your wife? Sometimes, it's all in how you pose the question, isn't it?  Grin

Maybe the market is correcting as we speak... it's just correcting upwards.
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February 12, 2013, 04:47:09 PM
 #14

Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).

The Bitcoin market can remain stubborn and irrational (nonsensical term!) indefinitely because it is an equity based play where, currently, there is very little in the way of leverage instruments. That means holders of bitcoins can remain solvent indefinitely; there is no debt to service and no margin calls.

you're assuming speculators haven't gone out and borrowed a bunch of fiat and dumped it into Bitcoin.  nor are you considering how leveraged other aspects of their lives might be.

for instance, if someone bought Bitcoins with cash but also leveraged up to speculate on 10 houses, their Bitcoin stash may be very vulnerable to liquidation due to a downturn in the housing market as the speculator scrambles to raise cash for mortgages gone bad.
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God of the code.


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February 12, 2013, 05:04:16 PM
 #15

Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).

The Bitcoin market can remain stubborn and irrational (nonsensical term!) indefinitely because it is an equity based play where, currently, there is very little in the way of leverage instruments. That means holders of bitcoins can remain solvent indefinitely; there is no debt to service and no margin calls.

you're assuming speculators haven't gone out and borrowed a bunch of fiat and dumped it into Bitcoin.

Did you just say long squeeze?
Piper67
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February 12, 2013, 05:23:57 PM
 #16

Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).

The Bitcoin market can remain stubborn and irrational (nonsensical term!) indefinitely because it is an equity based play where, currently, there is very little in the way of leverage instruments. That means holders of bitcoins can remain solvent indefinitely; there is no debt to service and no margin calls.

you're assuming speculators haven't gone out and borrowed a bunch of fiat and dumped it into Bitcoin.  nor are you considering how leveraged other aspects of their lives might be.

for instance, if someone bought Bitcoins with cash but also leveraged up to speculate on 10 houses, their Bitcoin stash may be very vulnerable to liquidation due to a downturn in the housing market as the speculator scrambles to raise cash for mortgages gone bad.

Well, the argument from "imponderables" applies to pretty much any kind of investment (gold, silver, shares of Microsoft in 1987). There are a few other unknowns in the Bitcoin environment:

- How many ultra-early adopters own wallets with upwards of 100K BTC?
- How much does any one of them really want to buy a house?
- How likely is it that the hard drive in the laptop on which they originally mined those coins never went tits up?

And so on and so forth...

However, on the "ponderables" side, Bitcoin, as an investment mechanism, is on the face of it an equity based play.
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February 12, 2013, 05:29:31 PM
 #17


- How many ultra-early adopters own wallets with upwards of 100K BTC?

None? At least none with 100k wallets except for this one here: http://blockchain.info/address/1933phfhK3ZgFQNLGSDXvqCn32k2buXY8a

Could be split of course for the rest of the early adopters. But generally, I tend to believe in simpler versions. So - few or none.

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February 12, 2013, 05:33:42 PM
 #18

Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, it will continue until it stops. This could last very long time (markets are known to be stubborn and irrational for longer than many can remain solvent).

The Bitcoin market can remain stubborn and irrational (nonsensical term!) indefinitely because it is an equity based play where, currently, there is very little in the way of leverage instruments. That means holders of bitcoins can remain solvent indefinitely; there is no debt to service and no margin calls.

you're assuming speculators haven't gone out and borrowed a bunch of fiat and dumped it into Bitcoin.

Did you just say long squeeze?

no, i'm just pointing out a fact.  but sure, if ppl get too overleveraged to the long side and we top out with a prolonged down swing, then of course they might be forced to liquidate.

what i'm saying is that Bitcoin doesn't live in its own little world.  its directly hinged at the hip with fiat and politics.  this is one of the main purposes of my newsletter; to tie in real world economics with what's happening in Bitcoin and to help us understand how one affects the other.
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February 12, 2013, 05:46:44 PM
 #19

I am quite confident there are many more suckers out there who will be happy to buy bitcoins at an even higher price.
I will patiently wait until they blow their load.

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piramida
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February 12, 2013, 06:46:21 PM
 #20

matt, I like how you stay bearish for what, 3rd year now, even though history is trying hard to teach you a lesson, but you just would not listen would you? Smiley

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