Reversal!

[arepo]

10-DAY 2-HOUR MICRO-TERM analysis

1. MACD (moving-averages)
shows double top pattern, representing the recent 'flattening' of prices.

2. Mass Index (volatility-based reversal signal)
reversal [short-term downtrend] will commence when the volatility calms back under the red/blue band

3. MFI (volume-based)
shows bearish divergence against the quick price recovery, partly due to decreasing volume slope

4. Chaikin Money Flow (also volume-based)
bearish divergence approaching a crossover signal



i rest my case.

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[ElectricMucus]

gonna squeeze a couple of more cents out.

[jojo69]

at this point I don't dare hope

[arepo]

the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold. this is why i'm not surprised we're continuing slowly up. i just hope the top doesn't bubble up...

[arepo]

the mass index is the most important signal here. generally, the reversal doesn't take trend until the volatility at least peaks, and often not until it reaches back below the marked threshold. this is why i'm not surprised we're continuing slowly up. i just hope the top doesn't bubble up...

mass index just now touching threshold on the micro term, which should allow the noise from the movement to dissipate and the new trend to take shape. if prices continue to rise, that invalidates the reversal signal. if prices move within a range or down, that is a validation.

also, a nice bearish divergence forming in the stochastic oscillator.

[arepo]

1-MONTH 6-HOUR SHORT-TERM



mass index giving a reversal signal on the slightly longer term scale as well, although still has yet to settle.

[jl2012]

1-MONTH 6-HOUR SHORT-TERM

http://s8.postimage.org/6xxlhl7tx/winterbullrun_Vreversal.png

mass index giving a reversal signal on the slightly longer term scale as well, although still has yet to settle.

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

[arepo]

1-MONTH 6-HOUR SHORT-TERM

http://s8.postimage.org/6xxlhl7tx/winterbullrun_Vreversal.png

mass index giving a reversal signal on the slightly longer term scale as well, although still has yet to settle.

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

4-MONTH DAILY MID-TERM



other timescales indicate reversal territory as well. so no, not cherry-picking.

[mccorvic]

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS: BEARS WILL CONTINUE TO POST TERRIBLE THREADS IN HOPES THAT SOME HOW THERE POSTS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT THE MARKET.

News at 11.

[arepo]

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS: BEARS WILL CONTINUE TO POST TERRIBLE THREADS IN HOPES THAT SOME HOW THERE POSTS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT THE MARKET.

News at 11.

the market always tops during the peak of bullish sentiment. hope you like holding bags.

[jl2012]

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS: BEARS WILL CONTINUE TO POST TERRIBLE THREADS IN HOPES THAT SOME HOW THERE POSTS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT THE MARKET.

News at 11.

the market always tops during the peak of bullish sentiment. hope you like holding bags.

As you are still bearish, we are far from the peak of bullish sentiment. 

[arepo]

As you are still bearish, we are far from the peak of bullish sentiment.  

i see what you did there

but the market exhibits frequency-dependent selection for individual profit. the first bears to wake up from hibernation win.

[zby]

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS: BEARS WILL CONTINUE TO POST TERRIBLE THREADS IN HOPES THAT SOME HOW THERE POSTS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT THE MARKET.

News at 11.

the market always tops during the peak of bullish sentiment. hope you like holding bags.

That is true - but with that amount of media attention that we get recently there is a huge chance that there will be new money in the market.

[arepo]

That is true - but with that amount of media attention that we get recently there is a huge chance that there will be new money in the market.

markets are also anti-inductive. if everyone expects one behavior, it will do the opposite so as to minimize profits.

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

[zby]

That is true - but with that amount of media attention that we get recently there is a huge chance that there will be new money in the market.

markets are also anti-inductive. if everyone expects one behavior, it will do the opposite so as to minimize profits.

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

I kind of agree - but the point here is that there is a global scale.  I now expect something like the first bubble - and we are still in the run up to it.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

in two words: zero-sum

Yes, zero-sum game between currencies.  They are connected tanks.
Bitcoin monetary base in USD is 300M, fed monetary base is 2800 B .  I am not saying it's gonna shift in one clear go, but it is obvious that there is still quite some potential left 

[jl2012]

That is true - but with that amount of media attention that we get recently there is a huge chance that there will be new money in the market.

markets are also anti-inductive. if everyone expects one behavior, it will do the opposite so as to minimize profits.

you guys are so silly. just as bad as the first irrational bulls on the way up the 2011 bubble. do you think you all are going to be rich? do you really think that an exponentially increasing number of people will pour money into your pockets every day? pyramidal hierarchies are unsustainable and we haven't had a red candle on the weekly scale for almost two months.

in two words: zero-sum

Look at the weekly chart in log scale, it's nothing comparable with the 2011 bubble, and we are still 18% below the top. By the way, most of the weekly candle are green simply because we are still at the take-off stage.

Zero-sum? Yesterday about 1M of USD was spent to pull it back from $21 to $26, and now we still have 3.4M of USD in the bid wall (AFAIK this is the all-time-high). There is lots of new money here.

[zby]

in two words: zero-sum

Yes, zero-sum game between currencies.  They are connected tanks.
Bitcoin monetary base in USD is 300M, fed monetary base is 2800 B .  I am not saying it's gonna shift in one clear go, but it is obvious that there is still quite some potential left 

There will be competing virtual currencies, now they are weak, because BitCoin has not yet reached any real barrier to grow - but there will be some.  That was the plan from the beginning (read Satoshi) - and it will happen at some point.

[arepo]

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

also, will you post these charts? i am interested in counterdata.

[jl2012]

Are you just cherry-picking? I will have different conclusion by choosing different time-scale: more bullish (or less bearish) for the longer term

also, will you post these charts? i am interested in counterdata.

e.g. look at the mass index at 12 hours interval, it is below the blue line since 6 Feb and we had a non-stop rally.