Diff thread Apr 14 to Apr 28? picks are now closed.... prize = 0.2 btc

[Mikestang]

I suspect a 100-150  ph place  gets turned on and off.

The thing is, it can't be the same hardware since November, because we've had a lot of significant network growth since then.  Whoever is turning it on and off sure has the timing down pat, looks like we'll be almost dead level this adjustment.

[1714706280]

1714706280

[philipma1957]

I suspect a 100-150  ph place  gets turned on and off.

The thing is, it can't be the same hardware since November, because we've had a lot of significant network growth since then.  Whoever is turning it on and off sure has the timing down pat, looks like we'll be almost dead level this adjustment.

Well I used to kid that it was a farm in a Chinese Ghost city.

 I suspect it may really be that.

[edonkey]

This is looking like 0.4%, or a bit lower.

Probably going to be another roll over.

[RichBC]

So about 10 Hours to go and I think we will land pretty close to zero. I am going to stick my neck out here and say that, at least this Period I do not think we have seen big farms switching hash on and off etc. I think all we have seen is variance with an occasion where we had a half Day's run of short Blocks causing a spike which has subsequently corrected?


Rich

[Mikestang]

I don't know, Rich, the swings are way too drastic and timed too well to be purely variance.  I think we are seeing orchestrated powering on and off of large amounts of miners, probably as Phil has mentioned these are big farms of old tech that gets turned on with cheap power and then turned off so as not to effect overall diff.

Variance for small swings for sure, but I don't think this is variance.

[philipma1957]

So about 10 Hours to go and I think we will land pretty close to zero. I am going to stick my neck out here and say that, at least this Period I do not think we have seen big farms switching hash on and off etc. I think all we have seen is variance with an occasion where we had a half Day's run of short Blocks causing a spike which has subsequently corrected?


Rich

look at this thumbnail

my guess on late 21 or early 22  depends on your time zone 150ph was turned off.

anything  after the drop may be variance.  If we couid tank some more my -1.11 could hit

[RichBC]

I don't know, Rich, the swings are way too drastic and timed too well to be purely variance.  I think we are seeing orchestrated powering on and off of large amounts of miners, probably as Phil has mentioned these are big farms of old tech that gets turned on with cheap power and then turned off so as not to effect overall diff.

Variance for small swings for sure, but I don't think this is variance.

My logic.... is that we have an unusual period here in that it looks like being close to Zero. If the big rise we saw from around block 900 to 1000 was a big farm turning on then that should have resulted in an increase in Difficulty this period that was sustained whereas it has gradually gone away back to zero? Also although at the time it looked quite dramatic if you step back from the graph of the period as a whole then it looks less significant? As I say just a theory....  


Rich

[notlist3d]

I don't know, Rich, the swings are way too drastic and timed too well to be purely variance.  I think we are seeing orchestrated powering on and off of large amounts of miners, probably as Phil has mentioned these are big farms of old tech that gets turned on with cheap power and then turned off so as not to effect overall diff.

Variance for small swings for sure, but I don't think this is variance.

My logic.... is that we have an unusual period here in that it looks like being close to Zero. If the big rise we saw from around block 900 to 1000 was a big farm turning on then that should have resulted in an increase in Difficulty this period that was sustained whereas it has gradually gone away back to zero? Also although at the time it looked quite dramatic if you step back from the graph of the period as a whole then it looks less significant? As I say just a theory....  


Rich

We have had drastic swings in past few months that is sure.  Luckily this is on lower side:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    178,678,307,672
Estimated Next Difficulty:    179,280,343,410 (+0.34%)
Adjust time:    After 51 Blocks, About 8.7 hours
Hashrate(?):    1,200,914,130 GH/s

Price dropped some but 449... still not bad I said 450 so much and we about have it just barlety below.   My theory is it will be hard to predict difficulty some company's might want to do last cash in current gen chips.   And once we get next gen I predict skyrocket on hashrate.  But again speculation is hard to do at this point.

[ingiltere]

It's going back to same place literally, that's interesting. +0.00 would be crazy to think about all the possibilities.
Bitcoin Difficulty:   178,678,307,672
Estimated Next Difficulty:   178,679,221,064 (+0.00%)
Adjust time:   After 47 Blocks, About 8.1 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,189,732,338 GH/s

[philipma1957]

It's going back to same place literally, that's interesting. +0.00 would be crazy to think about all the possibilities.
Bitcoin Difficulty:   178,678,307,672
Estimated Next Difficulty:   178,679,221,064 (+0.00%)
Adjust time:   After 47 Blocks, About 8.1 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,189,732,338 GH/s

It is now negative and I could actually grab it at -1.2


price is dropping under 458

[mu77aL]

So last jump of 7.09% got us a rollover  prize is 0.20 btc

Picks are closed at the moment and all rules remain same.

last thread is here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1421127.0



Difficulty History

Date                              Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s   = Rollover


Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s

-----------------


I think there will come another decrease of the difficulty but anyways also another incerease of the btc price
wait for it

[philipma1957]

Final picks  

-1.2% = philipma1957  and if it wins I will roll it over.

+1.1 = mavericklm
+1.2 = NeuroticFish

+1.6 = jmumich
+2.0 = HerbPean
+2.5 = Veves1
+2.7 = edonkey
+3.0 = adaseb
+3.7 = Cuidler

+3.9 = VRobb
+4.0 = RichBC
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = ATguy
+4.5 = Ankara

+4.7 = zebedee
+4.8 = blindminer
+4.9 = Erumara
+5.0 = pusttiu
+5.1 = alh
+5.2 = wpt1wpt1
+5.3 = Fruitsbasket
+5.4 = DanDan
+5.5 = FUBAR-BDHR      I gave you a + value
+5.6 = ingiltere   your 5.5 was taken i gave you  5.6
+5.7 = vapourminer your 5.5 was taken I gave you 5.7
+5.8 = Mikestang
+5.9  =  indiemax
+6.0 = ezeminer
+6.2 = tlhIlwI
+6.5 --> talks_cheep
+6.7 = lolxxx ----- I checked my pm's and he sent one at 1:30 am asking for this number
+6.9 = alfacro
+7.0 = lolxxx   you picked 6.9 it was taken I gave you 7.0not a valid pick see two above


+7.1 = Amph
+7.7 = tertius993
+9.8  = Psi

We are at - 0.10 % .

 I am the only one with much of a chance and if I hit it I roll it over.

price got up to 470 on coinbase it is down to 445.  but we started this jump at 424.

while I had hoped for a real high number. like 500 or 600.

I sold 9 coins for  about 450 each.  so if we drop to 425

 I could buy back .5 btc  for free so to speak.

Price will go up more soon this was a test runup.  (I hope)

  I am liking the -.10 drop a lot.

[notlist3d]

We are at - 0.10 % .

 I am the only one with much of a chance and if I hit it I roll it over.

price got up to 470 on coinbase it is down to 445.  but we started this jump at 424.

while I had hoped for a real high number. like 500 or 600.

I sold 9 coins for  about 450 each.  so if we drop to 425

 I could buy back .5 btc  for free so to speak.

Price will go up more soon this was a test runup.  (I hope)

  I am liking the -.10 drop a lot.

I had hoped for 500 to my goal was 450 near term, and 500 further term.  But i thought we were going to get both possibly in same difficulty period.  But it did go down again.

We are down to 442... so it's dropping even more.  Hopefully it can stop and that is just China reacting to downswing.  but hard to tell.

[RichBC]

So Yesterday another slow day with -10.49% and 129 Blocks. This Morning we are at  Period Run rate of +0.04% and with just 12 Blocks to go we could land either side of Zero.  

Rich

[RichBC]

My spreadsheet makes the final result -0.038% but is often a little wrong. However it will be very close to zero which is a great result.  

Rich

[adaseb]

Dammit. I guessed 0.0 the last 2 prior times and guessed something else this time and it was spot on. Grrrrrr.......

[philipma1957]

Rollover!!   next prize = 0.3 btc

Dammit. I guessed 0.0 the last 2 prior times and guessed something else this time and it was spot on. Grrrrrr.......

0 would have covered   + 0 to .09%  and  as it is -0.01%

you would have missed by 0.01   so don't feel so bad bro.




Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate



Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s





Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
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[Mikestang]

Well wow, you can't get any closer to 0 than that.  Whoever turned off that hash timed it perfectly, kudos to them!  A level adjustment is a win of sorts for all of us.

[philipma1957]

Locked this up




new thread.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1453467.0