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Author Topic: It looks like the Bitcoin's value is about to see a major retrace  (Read 9373 times)
Jaime Frontero
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June 10, 2011, 03:13:40 PM
 #21

* it's the weekend. *

it's a fairly typical trading pattern.  it's just magnified because the exchange rate has gotten so yummy.
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DeiBellum
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June 10, 2011, 03:38:55 PM
 #22

Looking at the market depth charts, I think we can expect a small temporary rally at 25 $/btc and then if it drops again, a much larger Rally into a bull market at 22 $/BTC

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kiwiasian
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June 10, 2011, 03:40:56 PM
 #23

I know I'm not selling my coins until it hits $30 USD. It reached that point and then backed down. No one in the right mind is going to sell right now when it's $25 USD.

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June 10, 2011, 03:54:22 PM
 #24

A large number of people talk about when they will sell their bitcoins, implying a lot of people are speculators on the bit coin market, hoarding bitcoins. My best guess, once again, is that it is highly likely the price is being driven high through speculation and people's blind bullish outlook is keeping the price high.

For how long?

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theabsinthehare
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June 10, 2011, 06:04:57 PM
 #25

Price has dropped ~$5 since I posted this 9 hours ago. It held pretty well at the $25 mark, but just fell through to $24 and I say it will fall all the way to $20 at least, in the next few hours.
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June 10, 2011, 06:31:28 PM
 #26

My theory:

Bitcoins will drop to 10-15. The price will stabilize there. The stability will encourage many more people to trade more in Bitcoins, like actually using them for goods, rather than just the crazy speculation currently going on, and economic activity will increase a lot. After enough stability the value of Bitcoins will shoot up again, when there is enough real economic activity to support it.
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June 10, 2011, 06:37:16 PM
 #27

I think the speculators that came in w/out doing any mining at all (aka, no steady income of production btc) stand to lose (well someone will win, but others will become very unhappy)
 
I'm mining only about 1btc every other day, and I'll sell periodically whether or not it's at $5 or $50.  I would rather see tangible money instead of it being worth pennies if it crashes one day Smiley

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Jack of Diamonds
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June 10, 2011, 06:48:16 PM
 #28

I think the speculators that came in w/out doing any mining at all (aka, no steady income of production btc) stand to lose (well someone will win, but others will become very unhappy)
 
I'm mining only about 1btc every other day, and I'll sell periodically whether or not it's at $5 or $50.  I would rather see tangible money instead of it being worth pennies if it crashes one day Smiley

Not really the smartest move economically for a small miner.

After 3-4 months difficulty will be at a level where you can make maybe 0.02 bitcoins per day, but the value will have increased in an exponential scale.
As difficulty goes up after that, your earnings will become near to zero.

You will have sold BTC at $20 per piece, but in the new market you have no means of producing BTC nor do you have BTC because you sold them off.

So you are effectively limited to dealing with bought coins on exchanges because other avenues are now closed and you didn't save anything.

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June 10, 2011, 06:51:10 PM
 #29

I think the speculators that came in w/out doing any mining at all (aka, no steady income of production btc) stand to lose (well someone will win, but others will become very unhappy)
 
I'm mining only about 1btc every other day, and I'll sell periodically whether or not it's at $5 or $50.  I would rather see tangible money instead of it being worth pennies if it crashes one day Smiley
<snip>
So you are effectively limited to dealing with bought coins on exchanges because other avenues are now closed and you didn't save anything.

Well that's the risk I'll take Smiley   I'm not going to sell everything. Just a few here and there to keep things volatile, and to show for it

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sgorman
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June 10, 2011, 06:54:49 PM
 #30

The real question is, can one survive solely on BTC. There needs to be a big market for BTC otherwise the price will fall to worthless.

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June 10, 2011, 06:55:30 PM
 #31

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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goldbit
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June 10, 2011, 07:27:50 PM
 #32

I newbie question: When I look at the Depth of market chart, the price is obvious the price of the bid or ask, what does the amount mean?
Does it mean A) the quantity of BTC only or B) the qty of BTC * the price?

Eg. If I see an ask (Price:$30, Amount:300), does it mean the person is selling 10 BTC or 300 BTC?

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frechdaxx
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June 10, 2011, 07:33:33 PM
 #33

I think: altogether 300 bitcoins are offered for the exact price of 30$
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June 10, 2011, 07:40:01 PM
 #34

I think: altogether 300 bitcoins are offered for the exact price of 30$

What?

Anyways, there's a pretty good bear market going on. At $15 I might actually purchase some BTC which I haven't done before.
Since it's weekend and US->DW/LR wires aren't probably moving I think it could go down in the mid 10s before bouncing up.

Not going to sell mining proceeds now, though.

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BombaUcigasa
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June 10, 2011, 07:51:05 PM
 #35

So funny, people selling out while the price is going down...  Roll Eyes
theabsinthehare
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June 10, 2011, 07:52:40 PM
 #36

I just looked at Bitcoin Monitor, which shows all the different activity on the Bitcoin network, and it shows that the amount of trading is continuing to ramp up, while Mt Gox shows that those trades are sales whose ask price is decreasing further and further as people trying to sell are lowering their ask in order to get them sold first before price drops more. Price has already dipped below $20.

With selling building up by the minute (literally), I'm willing to bet the price will drop all the way to $10.
We may have just seen the shortest economic bubble of all time Tongue
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June 10, 2011, 07:54:22 PM
 #37

I can buy some at under 10$ finally Cheesy
tito13kfm
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June 10, 2011, 08:09:44 PM
 #38

"Another trade is still in progress, please retry in a few seconds"

Funny how this keeps showing up during the retraces.  It only seems to happen when you wish to buy BTC, putting up a sell order still goes through.

So people are seeing the price drop, selling, and old buy orders are getting filled.

I predict another spike to $30 when this error goes away as people try to buy back in for cheap.

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June 10, 2011, 08:15:00 PM
 #39

Quote
We may have just seen the shortest economic bubble of all time

too soon, there was no major incident that happend which could have an effect on the trading prices. self-adjusting, as some people wrote it in an another thread to 22-25$ till the difficulty rises. speculating with bitcoins is currently the most attractive thing to do if you like to gamble, because there is actually the chance to win something with it.
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June 10, 2011, 08:15:45 PM
 #40

The price could go as low as $12-$13 without losing it's mid-term bullish trend. This is a 3 month chart:



It could even dip a tiny bit lower than this as people percieve an "apocalypse" scenario. But they'll bounce back, and hopefully people will start to see the "risks" of speculation: maybe we'll see more actual bitcoin economic activity.
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