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Author Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!  (Read 85740 times)
Ibian
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March 16, 2017, 07:18:46 PM
 #1241

, which any sane person would do
*sigh* no, what you chose for your own reasons is not "what any sane person would do". Explain why it was the right decision, especially in light of current price levels.

Back when apple was around $100 (before the split) I moved my whole pension fund into a SIPP and went all in. Risky but...

As the price kept going up I kept taking some profits. At the time its the best thing to do in terms of lowering risk. Sure I would be sat on more now I'f id just left it there. A lot more Smiley

Same with bitcoin. I could be sat on millions, but I'm not because the rational thing to do in the face of outsized gains is to take profits. You can never explain why a decision made in the past was right in light of current events, because you can't know the future.

So in the case of both AAPL and BTC, with 100% hindsight it wasn't the right thing to do, but with the information I had at the time it was. I can't regret that.

So from that view I think roach was probably right to take profits. Whether or not they should have been put into metals is a different story Wink
That's a Mat argument. I bought all the way down from the peak 3 years ago, and kept buying. He laughed the whole while. He still is, in spite of the fact that I am sitting on roughly 200% profits and keep making money on the side thanks to the stash I have been accumulating.

The "rational thing" depends on your goals and your ability to predict the future. Mat wants to lose money so he can feel like a victim, and in that regard his actions are perfectly rational. You seem to have a lower risk tolerance than me, so selling more than I would makes sense. I want to make enough money on bitcoin to live on it for the rest of my life, and in light of that selling any appreciable amount beyond what I have planned to reach that end would be idiotic.

So I guess my question to you is, what kind of rationality are you talking about? The kind that is a product of personal emotions, or some objective standard?

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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March 16, 2017, 11:58:55 PM
 #1242

I want to make enough money on bitcoin to live on it for the rest of my life

Which is pretty damn hard to accomplish when people like the Winklevoss and Roger Ver own so much of it.  They would become the richest people to ever walk the planet by virtue of doing...basically nothing.  The odds of occurring are probably higher than 0%, but not exactly large.  That's just the distribution side of the problem to deal with while also having the technical side.

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Ibian
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March 17, 2017, 07:02:49 AM
 #1243

I want to make enough money on bitcoin to live on it for the rest of my life

Which is pretty damn hard to accomplish when people like the Winklevoss and Roger Ver own so much of it.  They would become the richest people to ever walk the planet by virtue of doing...basically nothing.  The odds of occurring are probably higher than 0%, but not exactly large.  That's just the distribution side of the problem to deal with while also having the technical side.
That's a good thing. The less hands the bitcoins are concentrated on the less available on the market the higher the price. Basic supply and demand. We have been over this countless times literally years ago.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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March 17, 2017, 07:08:59 AM
 #1244

Well, congrats to Mat for the MatTheMat reverse indicator working like a champ again.  A call for $1500 was made and now we're looking at a nice $1100 bear market.


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MatDerKater
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March 17, 2017, 12:02:25 PM
 #1245

Well, congrats to Mat for the MatTheMat reverse indicator working like a champ again.  A call for $1500 was made and now we're looking at a nice $1100 bear market.



When I first made that call, Bitcoin was $550.

Way way too early to be calling an end to the Bull Run just let, as much as you would like it to be the case.
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March 17, 2017, 12:24:54 PM
Last edit: March 17, 2017, 12:42:08 PM by Torque
 #1246

“With growth momentum nearing its peak and rates increasing further with a hawkish Fed, the asymmetry for equities is turning increasingly negative. This also means more vulnerability to potential shocks, e.g., from European politics, US policy, commodities and China. The increase in risk appetite in recent months and strong positioning by systematic investors such as CTAs and risk parity funds increases ‘vol of vol’ risk, i.e., the potential for a sharp correction.”
-Goldman Sachs, March 15th, 2017

Lol.

Yeah, they're actually admitting to the fact that equities prices are completely divorced from fundamentals, and couple that with higher rates, the stock market bubble will likely pop. What an f-ing joke.
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March 17, 2017, 01:15:01 PM
 #1247

“With growth momentum nearing its peak and rates increasing further with a hawkish Fed, the asymmetry for equities is turning increasingly negative. This also means more vulnerability to potential shocks, e.g., from European politics, US policy, commodities and China. The increase in risk appetite in recent months and strong positioning by systematic investors such as CTAs and risk parity funds increases ‘vol of vol’ risk, i.e., the potential for a sharp correction.”
-Goldman Sachs, March 15th, 2017

Lol.

Yeah, they're actually admitting to the fact that equities prices are completely divorced from fundamentals, and couple that with higher rates, the stock market bubble will likely pop. What an f-ing joke.

Last time I read a Goldman Sachs press statement, it was Jan 2016, Oil was $25, and Goldman predicted that oil was going to go to $10, where it would stay for decades. Oil is currently around $50. I wonder which side of the bet Goldman Sachs overwhelmingly took?

In the name of sustaining perpetual growth over the past 100 years, we have already seen the dollar become 100 times less valuable. Who is to say that the dollar can't devalue itself another 100 times yet? The US, and the world, now has a president Donald Trump. He has filled his cabinet with Alpha Males, from corporate executives to four star generals. He wants to 'Make America Great Again'. That means spending a shit ton on infrastructure. Roads, bridges, 'the Wall', and of course upgrading the military (like the US needs an even more powerful military). Trump is going to get the capital from the financial institutions, at rock bottom interest rates. The Trump government is going to spunk billions, if not trillions into Main Street, with all the big contracts going to select US corporations, who are going to create jobs in the US. As all that base money starts to circulate around the real economy, in and out of the pockets of the man on the street, the opportunity will arise for actors within the economy to take on more and more debt and those trillions of QE M0, will start to be multiplied.

With interest rates hovering around record lows, with negative interest rates already in place across major financial jurisdictions across the globe, I suspect the fiat currency inflation 'bull market', is yet to pop. I suspect the parabolic move up is pending. Whether this results in a hyperinflationary crash, or whether everything is somehow held together and we just get used to the price of a good burger stabliising at around $250, who knows? Travel back 50 years and tell the average Joe how much a burger would cost in 2017, and he would be incredulous, yet here we are. It's all just numbers in a big hookey game.

Also worth noting is that Donald Trump is on record stating that low interest rates are great. Keeps the US economy propped up, and wipes out the value of US debt in the hands of foreign creditors. An example of hims stating as much will be easy to find on YouTube.

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March 17, 2017, 01:26:19 PM
Last edit: March 17, 2017, 01:40:28 PM by Torque
 #1248

Yeah, inflation is real and has been going on for some time now. It's the way the Powers that Be can 'socialize their losses' to the masses without raising taxes.  Privatize successes, socialize losses. That's their game.

Pretty much like the frog in a slow-boiling pot scenario, prices go up but inflation-adjusted income stays flat or declines.  Do that over a long enough period and the sheeple go about their lives and barely notice.... until they start to wonder why they can't afford a good life like their parents had, or why they can't seem to make enough money, no matter how hard they try. Or why they can't afford to even have one child, let along multiple, like their parents could.

They don't really notice that their school loans, power bill, food bill, cable bill, health insurance, and maintenance costs have doubled over the last 7 years, while their income stayed the same.  Even purchases like the price of new cars have increased 20-25% over the last decade, yet the sheeple act like nothing happened.
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March 17, 2017, 03:39:27 PM
 #1249

Yeah, inflation is real and has been going on for some time now. It's the way the Powers that Be can 'socialize their losses' to the masses without raising taxes.  Privatize successes, socialize losses. That's their game.

Yep. We should have had a massive deflationary crash, but Helicopter Ben staved it off, and shored up the balance sheets of the financial institutions with trillions of fresh new M0 USD, created as a debt on the US taxpayers. Thus far, because the economy has been stagnant, that capital is all been stored up in bonds and has been responsible for pushing equities up. We haven't seen the real effects of inflation on prices, because all the new cash just hasn't been flowing around.....but when it does, i.e. when/if Trump gets his way, then I believe we will see the prices of everything rocket.

Whether this translates into another boom period or not, I think is impossible to predict. We are in unprecedented territory here with near zero or even negative interest rates. How does this even work? How are 'savings' meant to function? Furthermore, much of global consumption/demand in recent decades has been to feed China's export driven economy. As everyone knows, in order to keep themselves competitive, China pegged their CNY to the USD, keeping it artificially low, by printing more and more CNY to buy up all the excess USD being used to buy Chinese goods, thus importing US inflation. If Trump gets his way, and the probable rapid price inflation sets in as a result, then this seriously undermines the value of all the USD bonds held by the Chinese and indeed all other foreign entities, and this is not to mention the notion of Trump imposing tariffs on Chinese imports and/or finding other means of discouraging Chinese and other foreign imports.

So Chinese/global exports down, USD price inflation drastically up, trust in US debt down, which means that interest rates have to either rise a lot, or the Fed will have to keep on printing. Whilst the US economy may experience a brief boom due to Trump's spending spree; the global economy which was being fed by the US's seemingly unlimited consumption based on the power of the USD and the capacity of the financial system to increasingly expand the supply of those dollars, will surely experience a slow down. A real melting pot of contradictory forces, the offshoot of which for me is, that is all surely must lead to a big lapse in the confidence of US debt, if not an outright collapse, and to what, does capital turn to when confidence in the reserve currency subsides?

Bitcoin? (lol). Sure, Bitcoin and other cryptos may well catch a stupendous bid here, but hold on to yer hat and be prepared for the possibility of losing yer entire pot.

Gold! Gold is real wealth, and to where the serious money will always run.


They don't really notice that their school loans, power bill, food bill, cable bill, health insurance, and maintenance costs have doubled over the last 7 years, while their income stayed the same.  Even purchases like the price of new cars have increased 20-25% over the last decade, yet the sheeple act like nothing happened.

They notice alright, and then they turn around and blame immigrants. This is why 'they' have seen to it that Europe has been flooded with Islamic immigrants as a result of the Zionist wars destabilising the Middle East and removing stable regimes which would otherwise control areas and enforce borders, and why Hillary was chomping at the bit to give America it's dose of Islamic immigration as well. Give the proles a scapegoat. Keep everyone at everyone else's throats.
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March 17, 2017, 05:07:25 PM
 #1250

No man. Gerbil droppings are real wealth! Because I just said so! No need to back it up with anything like logic and evidence or other such nonsense! Invest in gerbil droppings today!

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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March 17, 2017, 05:44:59 PM
 #1251

No man. Gerbil droppings are real wealth! Because I just said so! No need to back it up with anything like logic and evidence or other such nonsense! Invest in gerbil droppings today!

Yes, because the elites of various ancient civilisations spanning from the Orient to the New World, used to venerate gerbil droppings. They would decorate their palaces with gerbil droppings, make statues of their gods out of the stuff. They would wear gerbil droppings as jewellery. It is a lilttle known fact that the real goals of the Spanish conquistadors in South America, was to secure the copious supply of gerbil droppings to be found in that continent. Indeed, the Rothchild's cemented their financial power not by controlling the gold market, but by owning all the gerbil droppings.

More recently, post the flattening of Libya and ousting of Gaddafi. Along with all Libya's gold, the 'rebels' also handed over Gaddafi's supply of Gerbil droppings, thus bringing an end to Gaddafi's proposal to launch an African Dinar, backed by Libyan Gerbil droppings, which would be required to buy Libyan oil.
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March 17, 2017, 10:54:16 PM
 #1252

If you ever thought the debt would not be defaulted on or alternatively devalued by hyperinflation, this mike maloney chart tells you all you need to know about that: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7q-73dpBKo

Alternatively, they can do something like revalue gold at $20,000-$50,000 an ounce, but those are basically the only 3 options.  Places like china + india + russia now own such large amounts of gold they have no incentive to force a gold only standard on people because it would make india too powerful, so they don't really have any reason to try and stop silver from rising too.  The profits are almost mindblowingly unbelievable, but I think you will eventually see something like gold $20,000 silver $600.

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MatDerKater
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March 18, 2017, 03:01:00 AM
 #1253

If you ever thought the debt would not be defaulted on or alternatively devalued by hyperinflation, this mike maloney chart tells you all you need to know about that:  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7q-73dpBKo

Alternatively, they can do something like revalue gold at $20,000-$50,000 an ounce, but those are basically the only 3 options.  Places like china + india + russia now own such large amounts of gold they have no incentive to force a gold only standard on people because it would make india too powerful, so they don't really have any reason to try and stop silver from rising too.  The profits are almost mindblowingly unbelievable, but I think you will eventually see something like gold $20,000 silver $600.


Historically, at the end of a primary business cycle, Gold has always hit parity, or 1/2 with the Dow. If that were to happen tomorrow, then gold would be $21K. That would be something like an 1500% rise. Astounding returns. If/when this happens, it will be a once in a lifetime event and so incredible, that no one will be able to quite believe it...apart from those who have looked at financial history that is.

Meanwhile, DASH is up about the same amount this year, and 1000% in the past month, or 500% in the past week. ETH and XMR just made astounding gains also.

Gold isn't really all that great for speculation. It is a safe guard of wealth. I wouldn't be moving a big bunch of capital into gold seeking gains of several orders of magnitude like we see in Crypto and indeed many conventional stocks. I like holding gold, because it is real wealth and in the long long run, it will also win out, no matter what. In the meantime, we have a very probable US equities boom in front of us, and fuck knows what with crypto. For anyone with a proven track record in trading, I doubt that precious metals are the place to be for the time being. They still consolidating and going by the chart, could do so for another year at least......

.......but for your local friendly neighbourhood black marketeer, who has all his capital in bundles of notes wedged in between his floorboards, now would be a very good time to convert a good chunk of that into precious metals.
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March 18, 2017, 08:24:51 AM
 #1254

If you ever thought the debt would not be defaulted on or alternatively devalued by hyperinflation, this mike maloney chart tells you all you need to know about that:  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7q-73dpBKo

Alternatively, they can do something like revalue gold at $20,000-$50,000 an ounce, but those are basically the only 3 options.  Places like china + india + russia now own such large amounts of gold they have no incentive to force a gold only standard on people because it would make india too powerful, so they don't really have any reason to try and stop silver from rising too.  The profits are almost mindblowingly unbelievable, but I think you will eventually see something like gold $20,000 silver $600.


Historically, at the end of a primary business cycle, Gold has always hit parity, or 1/2 with the Dow. If that were to happen tomorrow, then gold would be $21K. That would be something like an 1500% rise. Astounding returns. If/when this happens, it will be a once in a lifetime event and so incredible, that no one will be able to quite believe it...apart from those who have looked at financial history that is.

Meanwhile, DASH is up about the same amount this year, and 1000% in the past month, or 500% in the past week. ETH and XMR just made astounding gains also.

Gold isn't really all that great for speculation. It is a safe guard of wealth. I wouldn't be moving a big bunch of capital into gold seeking gains of several orders of magnitude like we see in Crypto and indeed many conventional stocks. I like holding gold, because it is real wealth and in the long long run, it will also win out, no matter what. In the meantime, we have a very probable US equities boom in front of us, and fuck knows what with crypto. For anyone with a proven track record in trading, I doubt that precious metals are the place to be for the time being. They still consolidating and going by the chart, could do so for another year at least......

.......but for your local friendly neighbourhood black marketeer, who has all his capital in bundles of notes wedged in between his floorboards, now would be a very good time to convert a good chunk of that into precious metals.

And if gold were to be revalued so high, that would mean instant inflation. The gold gains would mean you retain your purchasing power, not necessarily become fabulously wealthy.

The crypto gains can and have literally made (and lost) people millions in a very short space of time - btc earliest adopters, eth, xmr.

a lot of luck involved and a lot of obstacles to overcome.

i think it needs a big picture outlook; if you see crypto as an ecosystem / tech growing into the future, this is still kind of the groundfloor. I kick myself for not looking at eth like 2010 bitcoin, & putting 5k in during the crowdsale. It would not hurt too much if I lost it, but the returns are potentially huge.

if crypto gains decent global adoption and the ecosystem continues to grow, it wouldnt be out of order to expect 50x over the next decade. i even read an opinion that if a mid sized btc etf was approved, you'd be looking at 35k per coin. that's a massive risk reward scenario.
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March 19, 2017, 12:55:06 AM
 #1255

And if gold were to be revalued so high, that would mean instant inflation. The gold gains would mean you retain your purchasing power, not necessarily become fabulously wealthy.

It won't be inflation, it will be transfer of wealth.  But sure, there could be hyperinflation and god knows what else going on at the same time and maybe you'll see gold revalued to $200,000 an ounce instead.  The act of doing so won't be inflationary though, it will be transfer of wealth of digital and/or paper fiat being invalidated.

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tabnloz
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March 19, 2017, 03:15:02 AM
 #1256

And if gold were to be revalued so high, that would mean instant inflation. The gold gains would mean you retain your purchasing power, not necessarily become fabulously wealthy.

It won't be inflation, it will be transfer of wealth.  But sure, there could be hyperinflation and god knows what else going on at the same time and maybe you'll see gold revalued to $200,000 an ounce instead.  The act of doing so won't be inflationary though, it will be transfer of wealth of digital and/or paper fiat being invalidated.


so as a way of rebalancing the ridiculous debt situation, governments revert to a gold backed system but all prices stay the same? The reason to revert to gold would be to induce inflation to devalue the debt. It would mean instant inflation as everything is repriced according to gold, no?
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March 19, 2017, 02:14:08 PM
 #1257

No man. Gerbil droppings are real wealth! Because I just said so! No need to back it up with anything like logic and evidence or other such nonsense! Invest in gerbil droppings today!

The ironic thing is fortunes have been made in manure.  I think it was bird droppings or guano that was actively traded, it helps create good profitable crops

Quote
As a manure, guano is a highly effective fertilizer due to its exceptionally high content of nitrogen, phosphate and potassium: nutrients essential for plant growth
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guano

There you go, but I dont know about gerbils so much.   Meanwhile the cost of printing of a dollar is an additional burden on tax payers to use, but its ok because in that case we are subdising the farmers to grow the cotton that dollars are printed on.   It would be better if they used crap for batches of money then the present system, kinda unbelievable.  

In that scenario I can only assume bitcoin will find a way to be useful and a better currency then the commodity of crap or the failure of dollar.

Why is BTCchina volume appearing far lower now then year start.  Is all of the current action not as significant.  The chart for BTC In CNY looks better and possibly still in a process of gains if confirming above 6936.   In dollar terms I think its sideways at best till 1073 is regained with apparent confidence


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MatDerKater
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March 20, 2017, 01:47:36 AM
 #1258

Why is BTCchina volume appearing far lower now then year start.  Is all of the current action not as significant.  The chart for BTC In CNY looks better and possibly still in a process of gains if confirming above 6936.   In dollar terms I think its sideways at best till 1073 is regained with apparent confidence

PBoC told all the Chinese exchanges to stop monkeying around and start charging trade fees for each trade, as a means of putting a halt to high frequency trading, most of which will have been conducted by the house themselves.
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March 31, 2017, 03:16:27 PM
 #1259

This short term trade setup is an absolute Classic with a Capital C.

Flag formation right beneath the 38.2% retrace line, Harmonic AB=CD lining up with Volume Profile POC and 61.8% retrace. A no brainer (if it fires):


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March 31, 2017, 08:32:12 PM
 #1260

I see lots of good opinions on this thread confirming what I've known for a few years now. Gold, Silver and Bitcoin.
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