Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[MatTheCat]

Going to start a thread posting my own ideas and what is happening with BTC.


At the moment, I see a completion of a weak move up against the grain of the momentum indicators. Shorters probs want to set their trades around $432-$433, targetting low $420s and setting their stops up above $436. I would be astounded if BTC takes out the $435 high, without first correcting a good bit. Momentume looking very heavy, volume is increasingly anaemic.

I am currently short from $430, and won't be adjusting anything for the time being.

[1713493005]

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[MatTheCat]

And this in my view is the optimum trade entry at the moment.

Short at $432.50
Stop at $437 (ish)
1st target at low $420s

[nanobrain]

but...but...but...the halving....the trains....the rocket...the moooon....MarcusofAugustus' countdown...?

More seriously, I thought you were done with BTC, the sharks, the blatant market manipulation etc etc....

[7788bitcoin]

Thanks for the analysis. So the "prediction" model is based on the "numbers" that happened in the past, and assuming based on the previous tread.

Are you going to improve the model using more factors such as reward halving, development in blockchain discussion, and the rise of ethereum, and so on...?

[Amph]

but...but...but...the halving....the trains....the rocket...the moooon....MarcusofAugustus' countdown...?

More seriously, I thought you were done with BTC, the sharks, the blatant market manipulation etc etc....

halving will not happen tomorrow, and anyway you can short weven while the price is increasing, because there will be many consolidation

short don't mean dumping, short mean taking value from the negative part of each swing

[MatTheCat]

Thanks for the analysis. So the "prediction" model is based on the "numbers" that happened in the past, and assuming based on the previous tread.

Are you going to improve the model using more factors such as reward halving, development in blockchain discussion, and the rise of ethereum, and so on...?

The 'reward halving' is something that I have in the back of mind, but not something I can factor into TA. Like the rest of the things you mention, these things are fundamental events mostly for consumption by the chattering classes, to give em something to get excited and/or fearful about, give them some handle to justify their positions. For all we know, we may have had the 'Halving' in Nov 2015. $400 BTC after the halving, would still allow Bitcoin to be profitable to mine. I shall let TA tell me when/if 'The Halving' is coming.

What I am using in the above TA, is Fib retracements, Harmonics, momentum divergences, and Market Structure. Collect all that data together, then decide whether the balance of probability lies with a bearish outcome, or a bullish outcome, and then to what extent.

[talks_cheep]

Thanks, MTC!

Your TA is useful due to the graphs and comments you make. I've always valued your insight as well. Great job!

[Wexlike]

[MatTheCat]

A bad start for my very first TA 101 trade idea:



Bitcoin completely confounded everything I think I know about TA, and just fucking exploded up in the face of 'bear this', and 'bear that'. I watched the 'hidden hands' at work on Finex, as they monkeyed around in both in the trade walls, and strategically drove the market up.....but in the absence of a few million dollars and a 10K BTC to play with, who am I to object to such shenanigans? Somebody with strong enough hands wanted BTC up, and they got her up. Interesting thing here, is that there is now not a single resistance trendline on this large symetrical triangle that has not been breached, and that includes a Daily Gann 8x1 line:



I suspect that Bitcoin will now by hook or by crook, work its way up to the completion point of the AB=CD target @ $448, but at the moment, there is absolutely no trade setup that I personally could even consider, and even if there were, I would not be inclined to take a long trade in the face of so much bearish momentum divergence, all of which is still in play.

[7788bitcoin]

A bad start for my very first TA 101 trade idea:

img

Bitcoin completely confounded everything I think I know about TA, and just fucking exploded up in the face of 'bear this', and 'bear that'. I watched the 'hidden hands' at work on Finex, as they monkeyed around in both in the trade walls, and strategically drove the market up.....but in the absence of a few million dollars and a 10K BTC to play with, who am I to object to such shenanigans? Somebody with strong enough hands wanted BTC up, and they got her up. Interesting thing here, is that there is now not a single resistance trendline on this large symetrical triangle that has not been breached, and that includes a Daily Gann 8x1 line:

img

I suspect that Bitcoin will now by hook or by crook, work its way up to the completion point of the AB=CD target @ $448, but at the moment, there is absolutely no trade setup that I personally could even consider, and even if there were, I would not be inclined to take a long trade in the face of so much bearish momentum divergence, all of which is still in play.

I must say that your analysis is really interesting to help noobs like me to gain more understanding. I am still learning so will definitely come back to this post for more information from time to time.

[RyNinDaCleM]

A bad start for my very first TA 101 trade idea:



Bitcoin completely confounded everything I think I know about TA, and just fucking exploded up in the face of 'bear this', and 'bear that'.

I see you pointed out the bearish divergence in the MACD histo, but didn't you notice the even larger hidden bullish div in the next wave? That lower low in the histo combined with a higher low in the price indicates that market sellers could not overcome the support in the consolidation level.

[r0ach]

I am currently short from $430, and won't be adjusting anything for the time being.

I would be astounded if BTC takes out the $435 high

TA or comedy thread?

You tried to bet AGAINST an asymmetric trade you damn fool.  The asymmetric trade is to take out a long and go play the drums for 3 months, but you will obviously not have the discipline to do that.  The entry point for the people taking the asymmetric trade doesn't matter because there was no volatility in the first place, so you used meaningless intra-day TA vs their "anywhere is fine" entry point.

[nanobrain]

A bad start for my very first TA 101 trade idea:

img

Bitcoin completely confounded everything I think I know about TA, and just fucking exploded up in the face of 'bear this', and 'bear that'. I watched the 'hidden hands' at work on Finex, as they monkeyed around in both in the trade walls, and strategically drove the market up.....but in the absence of a few million dollars and a 10K BTC to play with, who am I to object to such shenanigans? Somebody with strong enough hands wanted BTC up, and they got her up. Interesting thing here, is that there is now not a single resistance trendline on this large symetrical triangle that has not been breached, and that includes a Daily Gann 8x1 line:

img

I suspect that Bitcoin will now by hook or by crook, work its way up to the completion point of the AB=CD target @ $448, but at the moment, there is absolutely no trade setup that I personally could even consider, and even if there were, I would not be inclined to take a long trade in the face of so much bearish momentum divergence, all of which is still in play.

I must say that your analysis is really interesting to help noobs like me to gain more understanding. I am still learning so will definitely come back to this post for more information from time to time.

The lesson is that this is a manipulated market and TA is about as useful as tea leaves.

[MatTheCat]

I see you pointed out the bearish divergence in the MACD histo, but didn't you notice the even larger hidden bullish div in the next wave? That lower low in the histo combined with a higher low in the price indicates that market sellers could not overcome the support in the consolidation level.

I don't work with hidden divergence.........it worked on this occassion but over the piece, it is nothing more than a coinflip in my view.

Like so much action in Bitcoin, this move was engineered. Had the Market Maker(s) been hit by a bus on the way to work that day, then the pump probably wouldn't have happened. I watched the antics on Finex, the way large bids were placed at just below spot encouraging all the other little fishies to take a bite..it took a while, but ultimately they did and when 'they' got BTC up above the high at $435.60, Short Covering done the rest (including my short stop). Any USD that 'they' had to spend on BTC to kick BTC's ass up against all the weight of the market internals, would have been gotten back on the Stop Run, and then some.......but what is it they say? "Never short a dead market"? Worth noting, is that post the Short Stop Farming, BTC has stopped dead in it's tracks. Enthusiasm for BTC vanished beyond that point, but no classic FU Sell Off either......perhaps this is the start of the co-ordinated Halving Pump?

I have been paper trading stocks just to test out setups and trade ideas and I can tell you, compared with BTC, these markets behave themselves. In defence of BTC trading, at least it is not as criminal as Forex....I keep my eye on that as well and Fuck Me, shennanigans on FX is a practical guarantee. Why so many small guys want to play on Forex I really have no idea...perhaps the x1000 leverage has something to do with it.

[r0ach]

'they' had to spend

[MatTheCat]

Not doing anything with BTC at the moment. Can't possibly take a long at $439 right on the heels of that big fucking green dildo. BTC very dangerous at the moment. I suspect that $450 is coming in, but in this low volume, low interest market, as we seen last night, one strong pair of hands could sent this bitch either way.

[MatTheCat]

Always pays to zoom out and look at the bigger picture, and for the more risk tolerant and more long term minded amongst us, it seems that $426-$428, represented a trendline breaking, Mom and Vol indicator bullish structure entry point into Bitcoin, targetting $650 and above......


....but just take a look at the Volume bars down the bottom of the chart. That aint yelling "its a bull!" to me.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Always pays to zoom out and look at the bigger picture, and for the more risk tolerant and more long term minded amongst us, it seems that $426-$428, represented a trendline breaking, Mom and Vol indicator bullish structure entry point into Bitcoin, targetting $650 and above......


....but just take a look at the Volume bars down the bottom of the chart. That aint yelling "its a bull!" to me.

Nope! It looks like triangle volume to me. The big confirmation volume will come with a break above the D-Wave high (475 iirc)

[thejaytiesto]

Dude look at the fundamentals:

1) Segregated witness pull request meets the expected delivery time: very positive
2) New version of Bitcoin to be released with a lot of new features due the segregated witness pull request: very positive
3) SegWit has already mined blocks bigger than 3MB and is proving Bitcoin will scale: very positive
4) The powergrab attempts by Classiccoin are dying and Core roadmap is gaining more and more support: very positive
5) Sidechains and Lightning Network sooner than expected, several companies working on it (no more Blockstream FUD), Rootstock soon will make ETH irrelevant: very positive
6) The halvening: there's always hype that the price will explode

So 1 to 5 points will collide with the mega hype of 6 and together will cause a price explosion in the near future (1 to 3 months). Time to look at this and not get too lost with technical analysis to be honest.

[MatTheCat]

Dude look at the fundamentals:

1) Segregated witness pull request meets the expected delivery time: very positive
2) New version of Bitcoin to be released with a lot of new features due the segregated witness pull request: very positive
3) SegWit has already mined blocks bigger than 3MB and is proving Bitcoin will scale: very positive
4) The powergrab attempts by Classiccoin are dying and Core roadmap is gaining more and more support: very positive
5) Sidechains and Lightning Network sooner than expected, several companies working on it (no more Blockstream FUD), Rootstock soon will make ETH irrelevant: very positive
6) The halvening: there's always hype that the price will explode

So 1 to 5 points will collide with the mega hype of 6 and together will cause a price explosion in the near future (1 to 3 months). Time to look at this and not get too lost with technical analysis to be honest.

I don't care so much about Fundamentals, most of the time, they are just faeries stories for permabulls and permabears to wet their pants about and when we do get a 'hefty' fundamental, such as the Mike Hearn announcement, they are just fodder for the whales to drive the tiddlers into their feeding nets.

Nope! It looks like triangle volume to me. The big confirmation volume will come with a break above the D-Wave high (475 iirc)

Given that I think we both agree that Bitcoin is highly manipulated and that anytime the market moves, isn't so much down to organic demand,  but more to do with the whales trying to whip up a frenzy of excitement and/or fear in the tiddlers upon which they feed......

.....this morning, a 3K BTC sell wall was placed on Finex @ $440. Naturally, if one 'really' wants to relieve oneself of 3000 BTC, one does not simply place the whole entire fucking bundle on a big fat round number.

I watched the pump 'come out of nowhere', and seen the way both bid walls and ask walls were manipulated to get as many little fishies to help push BTC up towards the $435.5 Short Stop Liquidity pool, after which point, hapless shorters covering our positions like me, drove the rest of the rise up to $439. And now, we have a 3K Sell Wall at $440. From my past experience, such blatant market engineering bids are erected to be devoured......'they' will leave this hanging around for a period of time in order to make sure all the holders of potential BTC trading capital see it, then at some point, 'they' will devour their own 3K sell wall, and the next leg up to around $448 will commence......unfortunately, I won't be trading this one. A lot nearer the end of the move (imo) than the start, and there is certainly a lot of space down below for this to correct into.........


.......this might be one good reason why other people may want to consider trading this.....the one's that I call, but don't take, have an uncanny knack of turning out results, whilst the ones I am über confident in, such as the one in my OP...well.....