Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[criptix]

Wait.... could it be that roach is mats alter-ego??

Like gollum from LotR?

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[MatTheCat]

[zimmah]

Paria, read again what i said.

I said USD can be weak to other currencies (NOT YUAN, but EURO, SWISS FRANK and others) while at the same time yuan is weak to USD.

This is not a contradiction at all.

Also, the west is not buying "because USD is weak" the west is buying because china is buying. If the price is much higher in one exchange, then the other exchanges will soon follow due to arbitrage. And that's exactly what happened.

There's absolutely no contradiction there, and if you believe there is one, you did not read it well enough.

[r0ach]

23.6 Fib level is $560, because you count the rise from the starting point of the rise, not from a manufactured shake out dip before it began.  As you can see, it went there once, but hasn't really wanted to go back.  The first floor post-rise was $520-525 fib level, then it rose to a $535-540 floor range right at another fib level.  $570 has been a pretty strong floor, but if that failed, $560 would probably be heavily defended.

[MatTheCat]

23.6 Fib level is $560, because you count the rise from the starting point of the rise, not from a manufactured shake out dip before it began.  As you can see, it went there once, but hasn't really wanted to go back.  The first floor post-rise was $520-525 fib level, then it rose to a $535-540 floor range right at another fib level.  $570 has been a pretty strong floor, but if that failed, $560 would probably be heavily defended.

Not only was the shakeout dip manufactured, but the whole pump is totally manufactured. The aim of the game is surely to ignite a big FOMO driven pump, with the public all piling into Bitcoin at the 23rd hour, as Bitcoin starts to make headline news. Now if the pumpers are going to start throwing their money at defending $570, or $580 (as it is now), then of course, Bitcoin will pump further, regardless of how threadbare a string is holding it altogether. Afterall, it isn't like we haven't seen all that in Bitcoinland before. But I would have thought, that 'they' would want to get as many serious traders on board as possible for this one, and to do that, 'they' need to give the rise in Bitcoin legitimacy, and that for me means a 38.2% retrace, back down to the Point of Control, where a shit ton of buying interest prevents Bitcoin from dipping much lower than that corresponding $540 level, and even then, the Volume Profile suggests that backfilling needs to be done way back down to $470ish.....(I have a stink bid down there, but I have almost zero anticipation that it will be filled).

If however, we are already in the latter stages of the pump, then perhaps Bitcoin just goes shooting up to around $700 from here?


Since the market is so fabricated, it is impossible to tell what BTC will do next by simply looking at technicals alone. But for most 'technicians' to get interested in Bitcoin again, they are going to want to see a 38.2% retrace, back down into a 'socially acceptable' buying area. Right at the moment, the dwindling volume and the raging momentum divergences are just screaming 'WARNING, WARNING'. If 'they' decide to pump Bitcoin further here regardless, then all the best to them.......(and by that I mean fuck those sleekit theiving Chinese cunts)

[MatTheCat]

[r0ach]

What do you think about this scam I just witnessed on Finex, Mat?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1502745.0

[MatTheCat]

What do you think about this scam I just witnessed on Finex, Mat?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1502745.0

I was doing the chart above when it happened. Suddenly I saw, BTC had dumped by around $15, I was like "Holy Phuck!", but soon realised it was a reporting 'glitch'.....


.....or was it?


By reporting a $15 price crash, Finex caused all the other exchanges to sell off to a certain extent. That right there is a fast buck making opportunity in itself. Looking at the bigger picture, that price action, and the corresponding price action across other exchanges will alter the behaviour of bot trading algorithms. Alter them bearishly that is.


Could be that it was a genuine 'hiccup' in the system, but whenever Finex is involved with these 'glitches', I tend to get very suspiscious, the bunch of fucking crooks that Bitfinex are.

Also, since $561 BTC was reported on the Finex website, I can't help wondering whether a whole bunch of Finex long Stop Orders just got triggered and market sold into the genuine Bid Wall?

I fkn hate Bitfinex....and this guy with the greed crazed stare coming out his eyes:



Has a face made for smashing pint glasses into it.

[r0ach]

What do you think about this scam I just witnessed on Finex, Mat?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1502745.0

I was doing the chart above when it happened. Suddenly I saw, BTC had dumped by around $15, I was like "Holy Phuck!", but soon realised it was a reporting 'glitch'.....


.....or was it?


By reporting a $15 price crash, Finex caused all the other exchanges to sell off to a certain extent. That right there is a fast buck making opportunity in itself. Looking at the bigger picture, that price action, and the corresponding price action across other exchanges will alter the behaviour of bot trading algorithms. Alter them bearishly that is.


Could be that it was a genuine 'hiccup' in the system, but whenever Finex is involved with these 'glitches', I tend to get very suspiscious, the bunch of fucking crooks that Bitfinex are.

The fact that it happened on Bitfinex AND on Coinbase in the same day is pretty fucking suspicious.  Coinbase went from $587 to $475 in the span of one second.

[MatTheCat]

The fact that it happened on Bitfinex AND on Coinbase in the same day is pretty fucking suspicious.

4 Sure.

Coinbase don't report volume though?

When it happened there, I just thought it was due to ultra low liquidity and a fat fingered market sell.

Also. iirc, none of the other exchanges responded to Coinbase sell off?

[zimmah]

what is your opinion on this?



looks to me like in less than 2 days we'll either go towards 4300CNY or drop back to 3600

[r0ach]

[MatTheCat]

what is your opinion on this?

looks to me like in less than 2 days we'll either go towards 4300CNY or drop back to 3600

Very interesting. Just scalped some pennies into my account on that bounce (of course, conspiring to not stick to plan resulting in taking only 60% of my actual trade target which has now been hit), and I totally overlooked the fact that a range trendline had just been tagged:



My bias is that Finex is gonna get back down to around $530-$540 area, and looking at Huobi, I would say that your 3600 target isn't far off.

To all the permabulls (r0ach) who may take exception to me suggesting that BTC is going to retrace, I would say that BTC is going to need to take a retrace, in order to set up a move, up to much bigger targets, way up the charts. Market Makers have taken their feet off the gas, and only the public been taking long position trades way up here with hope of fast profits. For pro traders to get interested in Bitcoin, they need to see a retrace and consolidation imo. Indeed, for an institutional trader to take a long BTC position trade way up here after such a parabolic move up, and not much of a retracement, they would be putting their job on the line.

BTC needs to pullback, and the longer time frame charts suggest that it will.

[damnek]

The futures price should converge to the bitcoin price, that's normal.

[zimmah]

I have absolutely no idea what a future is and what that chart means.

[MatTheCat]

The futures price should converge to the bitcoin price, that's normal.

Which is why prior to Bitcoin taking off, the Futures spreads put in bullish market structure, and at the peak of the move, Futures are trading at a $50 premium to spot?

No. Futures trading at near spot is bearish, especially when they are getting nearer and nearer to spot, leaving a trail of bear market strcuture in their wake.

I have absolutely no idea what a future is and what that chart means.

A futures contract is an agreement to buy (or sell) Bitcoin at a given price, at a certain point in the future. It is a financial product that large Bitcoin miners may use to hedge their positions.

That 'spreads' chart is the difference in price between BTC spot, and the 3 Months Futures contracts. You will see that prior to Bitcoin taking off, the spreads put in a lot of 'W' market structure. You will see at the peak of the parabolic move, 3 Month Futures were trading at a $50 premium to cash markets. You will see currently, that premium is around $7. You will also see lots of bearish M market structure.

Futures price gives an indication of what the Big Boys are thinking about Bitcoin and therefore a good indication of what direction Bitcoin is going to go in.

[zimmah]

I have absolutely no idea what a future is and what that chart means.

A futures contract is an agreement to buy (or sell) Bitcoin at a given price, at a certain point in the future. It is a financial product that large Bitcoin miners may use to hedge their positions.

That 'spreads' chart is the difference in price between BTC spot, and the 3 Months Futures contracts. You will see that prior to Bitcoin taking off, the spreads put in a lot of 'W' market structure. You will see at the peak of the parabolic move, 3 Month Futures were trading at a $50 premium to cash markets. You will see currently, that premium is around $7. You will also see lots of bearish M market structure.

Futures price gives an indication of what the Big Boys are thinking about Bitcoin and therefore a good indication of what direction Bitcoin is going to go in.

ok see let me see if i understand.

if i made a contract with you today to buy 1 bitcoin from you after 3 months and I pay you $600 (would the payment be directly? I guess so). That would be a future contract with about $24 over spot, and indicate that we both believe the price will rise?

Are contracts ever made under spot? Is it possible to sell contracts to third parties? What forces people to keep their contract (assuming it's no smart contracts, hey, if these things are common in the stock market, smart contracts could totally work there, right?)?


It sounds a a bit similar to options, but there's still some differences i think. Because with options, you aren't forced to buy/sell.

[r0ach]

Another Mat fantasy post where he claims Bitcoin will crash to $3 so he can take out a long then immediately go over $1000 after.  In MatTheCat world, markets are also not allowed to go sideways either, they have to  either be crashing like it's 1920 or going parabolic at all times.

[damnek]

I have absolutely no idea what a future is and what that chart means.

A futures contract is an agreement to buy (or sell) Bitcoin at a given price, at a certain point in the future. It is a financial product that large Bitcoin miners may use to hedge their positions.

That 'spreads' chart is the difference in price between BTC spot, and the 3 Months Futures contracts. You will see that prior to Bitcoin taking off, the spreads put in a lot of 'W' market structure. You will see at the peak of the parabolic move, 3 Month Futures were trading at a $50 premium to cash markets. You will see currently, that premium is around $7. You will also see lots of bearish M market structure.

Futures price gives an indication of what the Big Boys are thinking about Bitcoin and therefore a good indication of what direction Bitcoin is going to go in.

ok see let me see if i understand.

if i made a contract with you today to buy 1 bitcoin from you after 3 months and I pay you $600 (would the payment be directly? I guess so). That would be a future contract with about $24 over spot, and indicate that we both believe the price will rise?

Are contracts ever made under spot? Is it possible to sell contracts to third parties? What forces people to keep their contract (assuming it's no smart contracts, hey, if these things are common in the stock market, smart contracts could totally work there, right?)?


It sounds a a bit similar to options, but there's still some differences i think. Because with options, you aren't forced to buy/sell.

It is very similar to options, the main difference being that futures don't have a strike price.

The quarterly contracts get settled in 17 days from now. As we get closer to the settlement date, those contracts will gradually start trading closer and closer to the index price (the average spot price of a number of exchanges). But it's important to understand that it converges to the index price, so that blue chart may go up and down a bit, but eventually it will go to zero: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limit_(mathematics).

[notme]

No. Futures trading at near spot is bearish, especially when they are getting nearer and nearer to spot, leaving a trail of bear market strcuture in their wake.

No, futures trading near spot is an indication of a consolidating market.  Assuming the futures markets are fully liquid (a big if in Bitcoin), the spot market won't move too hard until the futures come in line.