Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[Wexlike]

Well, I was wrong.

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[siameze]

Well, I was wrong.

Yeah, looks like me too.

[r0ach]

Matt, I just wanted to say that I appreciate the time you spend sharing your thoughts through this thread. You're clearly improving as a trader over time so don't pay attention to haters like r0ach.

Are you joking?  My Bitcoin holding is up 250%+ (or fiat up 360%+ take your pick - I converted all winnings to BTC) since the start of this thread.  I'm doing him a favor by posting here.  If I wasn't posting, he probably would have shorted Bitcoin 8 times instead of 3 times and be down like -$100,000 right now.

Word to your mother:

[MatTheCat]

Matt, I just wanted to say that I appreciate the time you spend sharing your thoughts through this thread. You're clearly improving as a trader over time so don't pay attention to haters like r0ach.

Are you joking?  My Bitcoin holding is up 250%+ (or fiat up 360%+ take your pick - I converted all winnings to BTC) since the start of this thread.  I'm doing him a favor by posting here.  If I wasn't posting, he probably would have shorted Bitcoin 8 times instead of 3 times and be down like -$100,000 right now.

Word to your mother:

Hooray for you....

But with all due respects, anyone can sit and cut n paste certain position changes and post them as glittering successful trades.

[r0ach]

Hooray for you....

But with all due respects, anyone can sit and cut n paste certain position changes and post them as glittering successful trades.

The problem is, you're trying to act in an authority figure position on the Bitcoin markets, but I'm making 10x higher returns doing the exact opposite of your trades.  I get it, you've given the disclaimer of "I am a horrible trader" before, but you can't post charts for random noobs to look at and lose their life savings if the success rate of those charts is like 3%.  It's like you're lacing cookies with rat poison and placing them on the ground for people to pick up and die on purpose.  

Is that the actual purpose of this thread?  Do you take the opposite position of what you post?  I've seen plenty of people that do that before, which is why I started posting screenshots of my trades so people know I'm not a liar trying to scam them.

[MatTheCat]

Hooray for you....

But with all due respects, anyone can sit and cut n paste certain position changes and post them as glittering successful trades.

The problem is, you're trying to act in an authority figure position on the Bitcoin markets, but I'm making 10x higher returns doing the exact opposite of your trades.  I get it, you've given the disclaimer of "I am a horrible trader" before, but you can't post charts for random noobs to look at and lose their life savings if the success rate of those charts is like 3%.  It's like you're lacing cookies with rat poison and placing them on the ground for people to pick up and die on purpose.  Is that the actual purpose of this thread?  Do you take the opposite position of what you post?

Stopped Posting most of trades here, which tend to be itty bitty scalp trades.....just fucking jinxing myself I think, and also fucking with my mental capital, putting seeds of distraction in my head that don't need to be there.

Instead, I shall post larger position trades here, and/or what I think is going down with the market, and if you would kindly scroll up, I think you will notice that a chart entitled...'The Party is Over', when Bitcoin was still up at $740....so fuck you, quite frankly....never seen you call the correction at any point....au contraire, you were still screaming MOOON at $750....and therefore it surprises me now that you are posting graphics showing that u 'sold the highs and bought the lows'...sure...u may have done..with a tiny portion of your position, but overall, the net worth of your long has cratered in value since yesterday....



...btw...here is latest trade of mine:




Target coming in, in 3, 2, 1.......


Update:

[r0ach]

I think you will notice that a chart entitled...'The Party is Over', when Bitcoin was still up at $740....so fuck you, quite frankly....never seen you call the correction at any point....au contraire, you were still screaming MOOON at $750....and therefore it surprises me now that you are posting graphics showing that u 'sold the highs and bought the lows'...

There are already enough paid shills like Kwukduck, Lambchop, and Talks_Cheep spamming "Bitcoin will crash to -$3 any second!" where there's really no point in me posting when I sell because those bearish posts are already oversupplied by paid government agents and banking shills.  I don't try to induce fear in the market to buy lower like some people.  People that do that are usually sociopaths.  I do tell people Eth will crash to 0 because it's an actual scamcoin, and I don't want to see blatant scammers operating in cryptocurrency.

sure...u may have done..with a tiny portion of your position, but overall, the net worth of your long has cratered in value since yesterday....

The value of my position is higher than yesterday, but I sent some of the gains out to buy some Monero (the coin).  BTC + Monero is the only thing I currently hold.  Monero wallet comes out soon and it will break it's old 0.004 highs afterwards, so you can kinda throw a few BTC at it and if you can restrain yourself to not look at it for a while, will come back to see some gains eventually.

[MatTheCat]

In summation, I am currently looking for a retest of the recent lows, from where I think I would like to hunt a long entry, targetting low $700s. Will be on constant guard however, as that $580 level way down below looks to me like it is screaming out to be tagged at some point down the line.

[MatTheCat]

Have just hit this as per my market plan as above. Perhaps pretty risky given how bearish the LTF MAs are, but I favour more bounce, before I do more down:



I shall re-analyse later and may adjust targets/stops.


Edit: Scrapped Already....In at $651, out at $644. Huobi is leading the selling pressure here...other exchanges are trying to bounce..Huobi is having none of it....will see how this pans out. Most likely, once again, I am going to thoroughly regret not sticking to my plan.


Update: Well. One of those times when I am glad that I scrapped my setup. The Bottom is popped. Look out down below! Targetting $580.

[MatTheCat]

I never took the following trade, but I am in the process of building up a trade setup to allow me to get into trend continuation trades. I did consider it, but balked at it. Perhaps due to my opinion of BTC needing to bounce more, before it went down more.

The system is very simple.

Identify a trend, in this case a bear trend, identified as such by MAs on multiple time frames being in bearish territory, as seen by this chart here:



Then you are looking for a narrowing consolidation pattern. In this case, u are wanting to see bearish resolution of all MAs, right down to 5 min TF, and are looking to enter trade on the break of supports, as shown here:



Now, obviously this trade is taken with the benefit of hindsight and it is a hard trade to take, as it flies totally in the face of 'common sense' (I balked at taking this trade when Bitcoin was breaking out, and I dismissed it right there, as Bitcoin is on it's inevitable path down. But according to the parameters used in this trade setup, despite Bitcoin having bounced considerably from around $630 on the 3 Month Futures, it has stopped in 'No Man's Land'. If previous market observations hold true, this correction has further to go, and needs to hit at least the purple AB=CD target, which also lines up with a 4hr RSI line, and perhaps even the cyan AB=CD, which also just so happens to align with a 4Hr RSI line, and is also in the 61.8% retrace range for the entirety of the whole fucking bullshit manufactured pump.


I mean seriously!? What does the very fact that Bitcoin can cover hundreds of USD worth of price action in both directions, within just 2-3 weeks, tell all you, who place so much faith in this bullshit fucking scam, about the condition of this market? Who knows, Bitcoin may well go on to hit $3K (I don't believe that), but whatever it does and whereever it goes, it shall do so leaving a big long trail of bullshit in it's path, with the distant echo of Chinese Bitcoin Cowboys laughing their fkn arses off at gullible the gullible whitey's.

[r0ach]

When it dumped, the sell side walls on Finex were fake all the way up to like $650.  It was the same quantity and size of walls that were used during the entire rally that are always pulled.  It was just an orchestrated pre-halving china shakeout.  There was actually 0 resistance all the way back up to pre-dump price, which is why it's about to shoot back up again.

[zimmah]

Hooray for you....

But with all due respects, anyone can sit and cut n paste certain position changes and post them as glittering successful trades.

The problem is, you're trying to act in an authority figure position on the Bitcoin markets, but I'm making 10x higher returns doing the exact opposite of your trades.  I get it, you've given the disclaimer of "I am a horrible trader" before, but you can't post charts for random noobs to look at and lose their life savings if the success rate of those charts is like 3%.  It's like you're lacing cookies with rat poison and placing them on the ground for people to pick up and die on purpose.  

Is that the actual purpose of this thread?  Do you take the opposite position of what you post?  I've seen plenty of people that do that before, which is why I started posting screenshots of my trades so people know I'm not a liar trying to scam them.

does anyone actually follow the advice in mats charts?

does anyone even understand his charts, assuming they even make sense?

i am pretty good with charts, but i dont understand any of his charts to be honest.

I'm just here for the fun discussion.

[MatTheCat]

When it dumped, the sell side walls on Finex were fake all the way up to like $650.  It was the same quantity and size of walls that were used during the entire rally that are always pulled.  It was just an orchestrated pre-halving china shakeout.  There was actually 0 resistance all the way back up to pre-dump price, which is why it's about to shoot back up again.

Bwahahahahahaha!

Whatever r0ach.....you had better go n prepare some cut n paste Buy High - Sell Low Finex trades, showing how you actually sold up at $750, and never bought back until $580.

Yeah...$580, cos that is where Bitcoin is going.

There is fuck all support at this current price level. This is Dump City. Hearts gonna be broken (even more) around here.

P.S. regarding your Finex 'fake sell walls'...whatever m8. Both Finex and OkCoin 3 Month Futures got down to their support levels, and started to bounce hard...that was the trade signal for me to enter the long....however, Huobi wouldn't budge, and just kept selling, and selling......I was watching it all on 1 minute charts, for each exchange. After that 'bottom' was breached', as I said, it was a case of 'look out below'....there was no support for about $70 of price action beneath those bottoms, and there still isn't.


@Zimmah.

I use.

Market Structure....i.e. reversal candle patterns and/or M or W market structure, depending on direction of the trade.
Fib Retrace Levels.
Volume Profiling (the bars on the right of the screen, which show trade volume for each price level)
Horizontal Support/Resistance levels (check those faint lines on the screens, and notice how spot has a habit of bouncing of them, or ranging in between them. Notice how there are no more of these lines until around $580 (Finex)
Harmonic AB=CD targets....markets don't move in straight lines, they zig-zag.....AB=CDs are a good way of picking out targets the market is likely to hit.

[r0ach]

you had better go n prepare some cut n paste Buy High - Sell Low Finex trades, showing how you actually sold up at $750, and never bought back until $580.

I already posted my last trade selling at $763 and buying back at $656.  I bought more in this dip to dollar cost average the $656 buy.  I'm still way the fuck up so it doesn't really matter.  My dollar cost average per bitcoin is like $40.  Even the Winklevoss dollar cost average is higher than that at over $100 per coin.

[siameze]

Is it going back up anytime soon?  These red candles are killing me.

[MatTheCat]

Is it going back up anytime soon?  These red candles are killing me.

If I had a definitive answer to that, I would be betting the house on it.

I dismissed the idea of the $645 bottom giving way so soon, and actually attempted a long, from $652, which I abandoned at $644. That break down where I opted to bet on the bounce (tchoh....it seems I just have a penchant for dem counter trend trades), was the last time that Bitcoin would have offered an acceptable short trade for me. If Bitcoin wants to put in a bottom here and hold this level, then fine, I will try and go with whatever I see. But for me, there is no real support in this area. Next real strong support going by previous market structure, is basically down at $580. That is the next level that I will be really looking at before I try another knife catcher trade.


Yellow faded dotted lines are recent supports taken from 4Hr RSI peaks. The blue faded dotted lines are taken from old Daily RSI peaks. That clutch of RSI lines (mostly daily) sitting in the green 61.8% RLZ, are support levels from some very volatile action back in 2014:

[r0ach]

Welp, bought more at $600.  Dollar cost averaging saves the day.

[pontikis13]

My magic 8 ball just told me that we will bottom out at 575-585 and then the real bubble to ~4.5K will happen during the next 2 months.

[MatTheCat]

My magic 8 ball just told me that we will bottom out at 575-585 and then the real bubble to ~4.5K will happen during the next 2 months.

$566 is the 61.8% level on the 'clean exchange' (Stamp). After such a shit storm, hard to see how that level won't be hit now, and it will only rebound from here IF the Market Makers decide that enough is enough, and that they would like to start reloading the lorries with all the BTC they dumped way up top.

[dumbfbrankings]

Welp, bought more at $600.  Dollar cost averaging saves the day.