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Author Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!  (Read 85742 times)
r0ach
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January 13, 2017, 02:22:36 AM
 #1121

The real question is why you keep putting yourself out there.

Hey Ibian. I notced that Bitcoin is now back down below your net buy-in level..

shame eh?

As usual, r0ach lives to see another day and was unloading for silver and gold at $1100's.  TPTB allow Bitcoin to rise because they don't want people in the metals market.  I wonder how far they will let it rise once they figure Bitcoin is flooded with Austrian economists who are either selling a large portion, or at least hedging some gains with metals driving the price of those up.

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MatDerKater
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January 13, 2017, 02:46:45 AM
 #1122

The real question is why you keep putting yourself out there.

Hey Ibian. I notced that Bitcoin is now back down below your net buy-in level..

shame eh?

As usual, r0ach lives to see another day and was unloading for silver and gold at $1100's.  TPTB allow Bitcoin to rise because they don't want people in the metals market.  I wonder how far they will let it rise once they figure Bitcoin is flooded with Austrian economists who are either selling a large portion, or at least hedging some gains with metals driving the price of those up.


Picked the top once again r0ach, eh?  Roll Eyes

Maybe these wins will make up for the devastating losses (that you denied) you incurred on the Great Bitfinex Scam of 2016?


Bitcoin market cap is tiny compared to gold and Bitcoin price is also driven overwhelmingly by speculation and also on very low trade volume (ignoring Chinese volume which is all fakery). Bitcoin and precious metals are totally different investment classes. The only thing that might be said, is that Bitcoin stole away a lot of the internet 'End the Fed' freedom warrior retail investors, who would otherwise have put money into precious metals.......but still, in the grander scheme of things, we are talking peanuts here.



btw, did you know that all the original Austrian economists were Jüde?

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January 13, 2017, 07:00:22 AM
Last edit: January 13, 2017, 07:11:40 AM by r0ach
 #1123

Maybe these wins will make up for the devastating losses (that you denied) you incurred on the Great Bitfinex Scam of 2016?

I didn't lose a cent on Bitfinex.  The market had turned flat and I knew their exchange was likely insolvent due to the all the irregular activity I saw during Brexit so I got my money out of there on this sideways plateau like a week before they goxed.  There was no reason to even have money on the exchange at that point since there was no volatility.  The only people who got goxed were the type of people who always leave all their cash on exchange 24/7 really.  

Hell, I get nervous having money on Poloniex to trade for even 24 hours, so there's no way I'm going to let money just sit on BitFinex for no reason.



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MatDerKater
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January 17, 2017, 12:56:56 PM
 #1124

Ibian
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January 17, 2017, 05:08:03 PM
 #1125

*price goes up $50*

Mat: BEARISH!

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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January 17, 2017, 06:47:43 PM
 #1126

*price goes up $50*

Mat: BEARISH!

Depends what you mean by bearish.

I drew that chart for a mate, who has been holding since $830, and who failed to take profits all the way up tp $1140, and failed to take profits again in all the zig zagging of price between $900 - $1040. Now, as I had previously advised him, he will get another chance to leave this trade with more USD in his account than he entered it with. The three green hearts represent target areas, based on notches in the Volume Profile. The upper most notch, is also right around the 61.8% retracement level and also right at the level where the market failed to bounce right back up after the initial correction, and took another almighty fall.

So my upside target here is around $980. If u want to call that bearish, then fair enough.
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January 18, 2017, 12:08:16 AM
 #1127

*price goes up $50*

Mat: BEARISH!

Depends what you mean by bearish.

I drew that chart for a mate, who has been holding since $830, and who failed to take profits all the way up tp $1140, and failed to take profits again in all the zig zagging of price between $900 - $1040. Now, as I had previously advised him, he will get another chance to leave this trade with more USD in his account than he entered it with. The three green hearts represent target areas, based on notches in the Volume Profile. The upper most notch, is also right around the 61.8% retracement level and also right at the level where the market failed to bounce right back up after the initial correction, and took another almighty fall.

So my upside target here is around $980. If u want to call that bearish, then fair enough.

For the love of God I hope he doesn't listen to you and just hodls.... for like 3 years. 

If he really needs to make another $150 worth of bitcoin on a risky trade, he has more pressing problems and needs to go get a better job, side job or something.
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January 18, 2017, 01:16:31 AM
 #1128

For the love of God I hope he doesn't listen to you and just hodls.... for like 3 years. 

If he really needs to make another $150 worth of bitcoin on a risky trade, he has more pressing problems and needs to go get a better job, side job or something.


Likewise, if he wants to multiply his capital in some high risk high return trade, there are loads of better options than Bitcoin, which can now only be described as a low return high risk trade albeit with rampant volatilty, but if a trader aint gonna lock in profits, then that volatility don't mean shit.
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January 18, 2017, 03:19:36 AM
 #1129

For the love of God I hope he doesn't listen to you and just hodls.... for like 3 years. 

If he really needs to make another $150 worth of bitcoin on a risky trade, he has more pressing problems and needs to go get a better job, side job or something.


Likewise, if he wants to multiply his capital in some high risk high return trade, there are loads of better options than Bitcoin, which can now only be described as a low return high risk trade albeit with rampant volatilty, but if a trader aint gonna lock in profits, then that volatility don't mean shit.

High risk, high return, yes.

Why low return? Do you think bitcoin has reached its maximum potential? Historically, when bitcoin exceeds the previous ATH, it goes on a fair old run. 2>32>266>1268. Don't know the amounts invested, but is the risk weighting here that marginal? Downside protection could be breakeven, sell order @ $830, & then hold on for the ride, possibly doing say 2x in a year.
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January 18, 2017, 07:54:09 AM
 #1130

*price goes up $50*

Mat: BEARISH!

Depends what you mean by bearish.

I drew that chart for a mate, who has been holding since $830, and who failed to take profits all the way up tp $1140, and failed to take profits again in all the zig zagging of price between $900 - $1040. Now, as I had previously advised him, he will get another chance to leave this trade with more USD in his account than he entered it with. The three green hearts represent target areas, based on notches in the Volume Profile. The upper most notch, is also right around the 61.8% retracement level and also right at the level where the market failed to bounce right back up after the initial correction, and took another almighty fall.

So my upside target here is around $980. If u want to call that bearish, then fair enough.

weren't you saying that the price might go to 1500, were you referring to the first pump to 1160? it might go there now with this another increase

it's really hard for now to have another dump, usually after it reach for two times in a row the same value it will not fall back again
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January 18, 2017, 06:17:30 PM
 #1131

weren't you saying that the price might go to 1500, were you referring to the first pump to 1160? it might go there now with this another increase

it's really hard for now to have another dump, usually after it reach for two times in a row the same value it will not fall back again

I believe strongly in $1500 Bitcoin in the fullness of time........it was starting to look as though Bitcoin was going to do it on the last pump, but no. I anticipate that Bitcoin will bounce back up to around the $1000 level ($980 is max sell target to my long position, if I had a long), and then after that, a further test of the $750 bottom......too early to say whether that $750 is going to hold or not....but more chance of $750 being broken to the downside over the next 2-3 months than $1140 being breached on the upside....


.....for now, Bitcoin rebounded right off the 'Strong Resistance Zone' from my chart above....if I were long Bitcoin, I would be looking very closely at market structure along and beneath this level......although I suspect Bitcoin will break through it to the upside.
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January 19, 2017, 03:39:51 AM
Last edit: January 19, 2017, 03:50:55 AM by r0ach
 #1132

MatTheMat, you should visit the Armstrong thread in economics section.  I'm not a fan of him, but it's the only thread where actual economic discussion goes on.  My general stance is that gold should currently be around $2200 even in their rigged system, but they've rigged it down even further to try and support NIRP/ZIRP.  Silver would probably hit around $75 in that gold run.  As for stocks, the stock markets are almost entirely a function of debt levels.  If the debt stopped increasing for instance, I would see a DOW drop to something like 6000 with a brief stop around 10k on the way.

Other interesting stuff:

The r0ach report vol 5: If there's any plausible conspiracy involving silver and bitcoin, this is it

https://steemit.com/money/@r0achtheunsavory/if-there-s-any-plausible-conspiracy-involving-silver-and-bitcoin-this-is-it

The r0ach report vol 6: Why I don't buy platinum

https://steemit.com/money/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-vol-6-why-i-don-t-buy-platinum


r0ach DOW forecast

I wouldn't touch the stock market right now with someone else's money, let alone my own.  We will either have some form of super inflation or the DOW is gonna bring the pain in losses soon.  Take the following chart for instance.  Each time margin debt went parabolic, it then crashed the DOW to BELOW where it originally went parabolic from.  This means DOW is going to have a mega crash down to something like 6k, while taking a brief rest around 10k on the way (this chart is old and it looks much worse now):



The only way out of that is to print a metric fuck ton of money to inflate the bubble even higher.  You also have a comical relationship in the following pictures.  Trump would likely have to increase debt levels by somewhere between 10-20 trillion to keep this thing afloat, which would then send interest rates to pluto and have the entire world on fire with unserviceable debt.  We truly are at the endgame of the debt based scam currency here (the Clinton disparity is entirely dotcom accounting fraud):






r0ach energy forecast:

When complex systems collapse, they devolve into simpler ones.  They never jump into a higher tier of complexity.  Complex systems also tend to require exponential resource (energy) curves.  Peak conventional crude oil already happened in 2004.  Peak working age demographic already occurred in every nation that matters.

Wealth comes from people doing work in the real world, not shuffling around papers.  That work is either done from things like burning fuel to do the work for you, or humans physically doing it themselves.  With both working age demographic and energy output declining, people will be spending more time and effort doing work for the basic necessities and nobody is going to be overpaying people for shuffling numbers on a computer unless it involves something to do with solving the energy problem.

"Excess" energy is why a day's wage in Rome was a small amount of silver and why it's a larger amount of silver now.  Instead of humans having to dig it up, the work was being done for free by machines, thus devaluing it's worth.  But, the time of arbitraging "free" energy into depleting all resources like metals as fast as possible is over now (that and the fact peak metals is occurring regardless the state of energy).  Unless fusion power solves all these problems (not likely because fusion is actually low EROI), then we already hit peak energy, peak cheap metals, peak cheap food, and this energy arbitrage scheme is ending, possibly in a Seneca cliff.





Here's one example of such a chart.  Remember that all wealth is based on energy output since abundance is really just machines burning fossil fuels to do work for you instead of you doing it.  In the gas sector, the high energy yielding conventional stuff is all cratering, so all they did was grab more of the lower return on investment stuff to try and compensate (same thing in the oil market).  So, as this cycle continues, your civilization's wealth continues to decrease until you get to the point of borderline thermodynamic collapse if it uses as much energy to drive the shale oil to market as it does to extract it (and shale is low return on investment).

So, I hate to rain on your parade, but there is no so called knowledge age unless there's some type of enormous energy breakthrough.  Russian govt energy analysts see things getting really bad by around 2020 and say there is no technological solution in sight.  There is no coming out on the other side of the monetary reset with some type of "utopia".  In fact, one of the reasons it's currently crashing is because it relies on infinite growth and the energy situation prevents that.

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tabnloz
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January 19, 2017, 06:33:10 AM
 #1133



Quote from: r0ach
I wouldn't touch the stock market right now with someone else's money, let alone my own.  We will either have some form of super inflation or the


John Hussman, who saw the tech wreck and housing bust coming, also sees this market as irrational. He sees a drop between 50-60% on S&P. Predicted 83% drop for tech bubble and 40% for housing bubble.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170116.htm
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January 19, 2017, 06:36:45 AM
 #1134

Quote
When complex systems collapse, they devolve into simpler ones.

On that basis when USA debt unwinds, it will make dollars worth less as the price of investment attributed to that debt does not result in higher productivity at the end term of the borrowing.    The stock market crashing as bonds fall in price I do not see happening unless these shares cannot refinance themselves, if bonds default that would lead mostly to higher dollar I guess with lower prices.  The real problem is treasuries will pay out alot more money that was produced in QE into the economy unless value is destroyed by default.   I think stock prices stay within their long term average as currency becomes cheaper which is the denominator to the price, especially for any international stock not tied to finance in just one currency.

Trump could do all sorts, but the most likely does just seem to repeat big debt deficit spending.   He'd need alot of guts to try and reign in the circle of repurchasing of bad debt with more debt and then he'd be correcting rates to above inflation.

In regards to bitcoin it only has to be more stable then dollars fiscal problems, it should appreciate then.

The colored horizontal bars on the Mat chart are volume at exchanges I take it ?


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r0ach
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January 19, 2017, 10:51:55 AM
 #1135

John Hussman, who saw the tech wreck and housing bust coming, also sees this market as irrational. He sees a drop between 50-60% on S&P. Predicted 83% drop for tech bubble and 40% for housing bubble.

I predict larger than 40% drop in housing (sans hyperinflation) because this collapse will cause the credit markets to freeze and housing prices are entirely a derivative of the debt markets.  House prices are astronomically high because the mere existence of 30 year loans.  The ability for people to purchase big houses while not actually having any money and spreading the cost out over 30 years inflates the price of everything.  As soon as the credit markets freeze, house prices implode to nothingness since the price has to be paid entirely or mostly up front instead of spread out. 

That would also cause mega deflation to the point where you'd probably have to move to an entirely new monetary system unless they unleash hyperinflation and destroy it that way in the process.

Anyway, here's a post I'm sure MatTheMat will love:

The r0ach report vol 7: Bitcoin is not an actual store of value because there is no real price floor or inelastic demand

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-vol-7-bitcoin-is-not-an-actual-store-of-value-because-there-is-no-real-price-floor-or-inelastic-demand

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tabnloz
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January 20, 2017, 12:02:24 AM
 #1136

John Hussman, who saw the tech wreck and housing bust coming, also sees this market as irrational. He sees a drop between 50-60% on S&P. Predicted 83% drop for tech bubble and 40% for housing bubble.

I predict larger than 40% drop in housing (sans hyperinflation) because this collapse will cause the credit markets to freeze and housing prices are entirely a derivative of the debt markets.  House prices are astronomically high because the mere existence of 30 year loans.  The ability for people to purchase big houses while not actually having any money and spreading the cost out over 30 years inflates the price of everything.  As soon as the credit markets freeze, house prices implode to nothingness since the price has to be paid entirely or mostly up front instead of spread out. 

That would also cause mega deflation to the point where you'd probably have to move to an entirely new monetary system unless they unleash hyperinflation and destroy it that way in the process.

Anyway, here's a post I'm sure MatTheMat will love:

The r0ach report vol 7: Bitcoin is not an actual store of value because there is no real price floor or inelastic demand

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-vol-7-bitcoin-is-not-an-actual-store-of-value-because-there-is-no-real-price-floor-or-inelastic-demand

Apologies, I wasn't quite clear here. All the percentages relate to declines in the S&P iirc. In saying that, I agree the next bust will be much larger than all previous ones, across all asset classes. For the reason you mention (debt markets).
MatDerKater
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January 21, 2017, 07:25:06 PM
 #1137

Other interesting stuff:

Some interesting perspectives there and strangely enough, I could only smell the big fat Reefa u been tokin on when I read the Bitcoin conspiracy article. Bitcoin's days are numbered r0ach. Sure, will probs go way higher still, but it is totally owned by the Chinese by now and the PBOC could switch it off tomorrow if they had the mind to. No serious Western capital is going to invest in something that is owned and run by a bunch of shady Chinamen operating out of Shanghai, but at complete mercy of bureaucrats in Beijing. If this was the NSA' secret plan to float an alternative currency now that China, India etc are owning all the gold, then they have surely fucked this one up.......quite like the idea of Bitcoin being an NSA project though. Certainly all the cryptography used in Bitcoin was developed by military intelligence. If Bitcoin is NSA, then it is a pilot for the global digital currency that is yet to come.

In the short term, Bitcoin is a highly volatile digital token offering the minority, great profit taking potential. In the long run, Bitcoin is nothing.

In the long run, gold is wealth. No matter what 'they' do to it's price. Regardless of whether financial markets even exist or not. Gold is wealth, down to it's atomic, and subatomic physical nature. Gold is the ultimate representative of the law of attraction in the physical world. Humanity will always come back to it. Indeed, it is only Western man who has (temporarily) rejected it. China and India, who make up over 35% of the global population, certainly don't view the yellow metal as a 'barbarous relic'.

as for the big crash of 201X....I am not so sure how it will play out. There have been Trillions of new USD created to plug the black holes of debt generated by the large financial institutions. This money is generally going into government bonds (as prerequisite of bail out deal), and using these bonds as collateral, the banks are lending (creating) new money which is overwhelmingly going into stock markets. Government policy across the Western world, has been austerity. The FEDs, BoEs, EZBs (etc) created trillions are NOT going into Main Street.

However, now we have President Donald J Trump.

Whatever you think of him, he is anti-globalist, and pro nationalist. He has made his fortune in property. Vast swathes of his total net worth is in property. The last thing he is going to allow on his shift, is a massive market crash, which will take property down with it. I suspect that Donald Trump is going to spend big on infrastructure, having the banks lend the US government some of that magic money, which is going to flow into Main St, which is going to push up prices, and with interest rates already so low (Trump is 100% pro cheap money), holders of fiat currency, i.e. savers are going to be heavily penalised, thus the race will be on to spend, invest, and lend the money into the economy at ultra low rates (to avoid negative rates). BIG inflation need not mean that the economy ceases to function, with anecdotes of restaurant bills being paid in advance in order to avoid losing value on the currency whilst people eat. Just look at the Italian Lira as an example. If the dominant global power chooses BIG inflation, then the world has no choice but to go along with that. Big foreign holders of US treasuries may not like that, but that is where the US military comes in and perhaps explains Trumps military policy. Russia good, China bad, Islamic Fundamentalism (generally funded by Saudi Arabia, another big holder of US debt), very bad!

In a similar style to which Trump has shafted his creditors in his business activities, I suspect Trump intends to rebuild the US economy, by spending BIG into the US economy despite interest rates being almost at zero, and thereby totally fucking shafting foreign holders of US treasuries, who can voice their complaints down the gun barrel of the US military. If anything somewhere along these lines pans out, then gold will fucking sky rocket, along with the price of everything else of course....including Bitcoin.....until the PBOC order the miners to close down.



Gold From a technical standpoint:






Gold also obeys Gann like an intentionally programmed algorithm, both to the upside and to the downside. Whether gold is now poised to take a big fucking ramp or a big dirty drop based on this chart (a bit of a mess but those who understand Gann Squares will know what they are looking at), all depends on one's market bias. Needless to say, I am bullish.




Miz4r
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January 21, 2017, 08:08:37 PM
 #1138

In a similar style to which Trump has shafted his creditors in his business activities, I suspect Trump intends to rebuild the US economy, by spending BIG into the US economy despite interest rates being almost at zero, and thereby totally fucking shafting foreign holders of US treasuries, who can voice their complaints down the gun barrel of the US military. If anything somewhere along these lines pans out, then gold will fucking sky rocket, along with the price of everything else of course....including Bitcoin.....until the PBOC order the miners to close down.

On Trump and Gold you may be right, but about PBOC and Bitcoin I think you're very wrong. It's doubtful they will order all Chinese Bitcoin miners to close down, but even if they do it will not be the end of Bitcoin at all. Non-Chinese miners will be very happy to pick up the slack and besides a short-lasting dip in hashrate and perhaps the price as well I don't see how this would stop Bitcoin. China banning Bitcoin is so 2013... we'll see though I will probably still be here around that time and looking forward to see how Bitcoin will be doing compared to Gold during the next 4 years of Trump presidency. Smiley

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
MatDerKater
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January 21, 2017, 08:29:14 PM
 #1139

On Trump and Gold you may be right, but about PBOC and Bitcoin I think you're very wrong. It's doubtful they will order all Chinese Bitcoin miners to close down, but even if they do it will not be the end of Bitcoin at all. Non-Chinese miners will be very happy to pick up the slack and besides a short-lasting dip in hashrate and perhaps the price as well I don't see how this would stop Bitcoin. China banning Bitcoin is so 2013... we'll see though I will probably still be here around that time and looking forward to see how Bitcoin will be doing compared to Gold during the next 4 years of Trump presidency. Smiley

If Bitcoin ramps, on a Chinese economic crash, due to millions of panicked tech savvy Joe Chungs trying to get their wealth out of CNY.....

.......then the PBOC could close Bitcoin down with a snap of their fingers............even if they never ever do, the fact that this very real danger exists makes Bitcoin a total no go area for any serious big capital.


and all this shit about the difficulty readjusting and other miners picking up the slack....bullshit. China houses 80% of Bitcoin mining capacity, turn that off overnight and there will be a backlog of transactions spanning weeks, combined with a huge panicked sell off, combined with a dramatic rearrangements in percentage of total mining capacity. Face it, Bitcoin would not survive such trauma, thus the PBOC can indeed kill Bitcoin and unlike in the West, the Chinese government can implement policy upon a whim and nobody will challenge it.
tabnloz
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January 21, 2017, 09:24:46 PM
 #1140



If Bitcoin ramps, on a Chinese economic crash, due to millions of panicked tech savvy Joe Chungs trying to get their wealth out of CNY.....

.......then the PBOC could close Bitcoin down with a snap of their fingers............even if they never ever do, the fact that this very real danger exists makes Bitcoin a total no go area for any serious big capital.


Chinese have been getting their money out for years already, except not through bitcoin. PBOC has lost 1 trillion in FX reserves over last two years. Not into bitcoin but global real estate, acquiring overseas companies etc. Bitcoin is a $16bn market; what ever amount is flowing out via bitcoin is a blip.

And, if we have a Chinese economic crash, the PBOC & the world will have fuckloads more to worry about than bitcoin.

But, I do believe there is something to capital being worried about Chinese dominance. It's a possibility that hopefully bitcoin will morph around.

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