Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[r0ach]

[1713585628]

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[1713585628]

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[Torque]

I've never thought Bitcoin was actually better than metals, just that it had higher upside in the past, but at 1 MB blocks and no functional LN (which I'm not real confident can be done in a decentralized manner), I think the price could probably get stuck at $10,000 - $20,000 a coin, assuming it even got there.  So to me, the potential upside in silver is as good or better than bitcoin nowadays while having less risk.

The gold potential upside is around 20x, or ~ $20,000.  Silver would maintain at least it's current ratios and 60:1 would be assured ($333), but it seems more likely the GSR would narrow to at least 30:1 ($666) in the process of metal revaluation.  And of course going back to the traditional 10-15:1 would just be bonkers profits.

I'm pretty sure that bitcoin will hit $10-20K/btc long before Gold will hit $20K/oz (like a few decades before).  You'll be long old or dead before Gold ever gets there.  But believe what you want on that.

Also on the topic of scaling bitcoin, never underestimate the power and determination of technologists and their subsequent breakthroughs.  History is littered with many a skeptic.

There was a time when many skeptics believed that the Internet would never scale.

[r0ach]

I've never thought Bitcoin was actually better than metals, just that it had higher upside in the past, but at 1 MB blocks and no functional LN (which I'm not real confident can be done in a decentralized manner), I think the price could probably get stuck at $10,000 - $20,000 a coin, assuming it even got there.  So to me, the potential upside in silver is as good or better than bitcoin nowadays while having less risk.

The gold potential upside is around 20x, or ~ $20,000.  Silver would maintain at least it's current ratios and 60:1 would be assured ($333), but it seems more likely the GSR would narrow to at least 30:1 ($666) in the process of metal revaluation.  And of course going back to the traditional 10-15:1 would just be bonkers profits.

I'm pretty sure that bitcoin will hit $10-20K/btc long before Gold will hit $20K/oz (like a few decades before).  You'll be long old or dead before Gold ever gets there.  But believe what you want on that.

Also on the topic of scaling bitcoin, never underestimate the power and determination of technologists and their subsequent breakthroughs.  History is littered with many a skeptic.

There was a time when many skeptics believed that the Internet would never scale.

Decades for gold and silver to go up?  Yea right.

The debt is too high for them to even normalize interest rates now and you're now getting currency wars where the goal is to see who can devalue their currency to 0 the fastest.  Currency wars either end with a real war or both nations using metals as a common unit of account.  There's also almost unanimous agreement to go back to a silver backed peso in Mexico, so if Trump should implode their economy, they will likely be moving to silver fast - which will then start to implode other ponzi fiats.

There's about a million different reasons why metals will skyrocket in the near future and why governments will be using them in some manner.

[bitebits]

There's about a million different reasons why metals will skyrocket in the near future and why governments will be using them in some manner.

Wouldn't that chance be already priced in?

[r0ach]

There's about a million different reasons why metals will skyrocket in the near future and why governments will be using them in some manner.

Wouldn't that change be already priced in?

Um, no.

Are you citing "efficient market hypothesis", which is the most wrong scam of an economic theory to ever exist?

"The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is an investment theory that states it is impossible to "beat the market" because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information."

According to that theory, it's not possible for millionaires to exist who made money in the stock market.  It pretends there is no asymmetric information distribution or capability to analyze such data and that all humans are 100% optimized branch predictors LOL.

[sgbett]

There's about a million different reasons why metals will skyrocket in the near future and why governments will be using them in some manner.

Wouldn't that change be already priced in?

Um, no.

Are you citing "efficient market hypothesis", which is the most wrong scam of an economic theory to ever exist?

"The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is an investment theory that states it is impossible to "beat the market" because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information."

According to that theory, it's not possible for millionaires to exist who made money in the stock market.  It pretends there is no asymmetric information distribution or capability to analyze such data and that all humans are 100% optimized branch predictors LOL.

I always thought EMH was the emergent behaviour of the market - e.g. the current price.

Participants all buy/sell, some win some lose, the distribution of winners losers is some statistical curve, normal, Poisson, whatever.

I don't think winners and losers is mutually exclusive with EMH.

[r0ach]

There's about a million different reasons why metals will skyrocket in the near future and why governments will be using them in some manner.

Wouldn't that change be already priced in?

Um, no.

Are you citing "efficient market hypothesis", which is the most wrong scam of an economic theory to ever exist?

"The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is an investment theory that states it is impossible to "beat the market" because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information."

According to that theory, it's not possible for millionaires to exist who made money in the stock market.  It pretends there is no asymmetric information distribution or capability to analyze such data and that all humans are 100% optimized branch predictors LOL.

I always thought EMH was the emergent behaviour of the market - e.g. the current price.

Participants all buy/sell, some win some lose, the distribution of winners losers is some statistical curve, normal, Poisson, whatever.

I don't think winners and losers is mutually exclusive with EMH.

To me, it seems like they're either claiming you can't trade your way to fortune, or that your trades only have a 50/50 odds of hitting on a drawn out timeline.  Whatever conclusion they're trying to imply doesn't seem to have any logic to it due to reasons I stated above like asymmetric information distribution and differing ability to analyze said data.

[MatDerKater]

[r0ach]

Mat, this wouldn't happen to be you would it?

https://www.reddit.com/r/fscomeau/comments/5qj64l/well_this_is_it_going_allin_my_last_stand_my/

[Wexlike]

Mat, this wouldn't happen to be you would it?

https://www.reddit.com/r/fscomeau/comments/5qj64l/well_this_is_it_going_allin_my_last_stand_my/

Demo account trade. But great read anyway.

[MatDerKater]

Well, that will be that target hit, and it looks like BTC has a little pop in yet.....

.......I never took that trade, cos I am finished with trading Bitcoin, but if it was a real trade, I would have fkn missed it waiting on my buy in level..........(then next time the same setup came in, I would be tempted to jump right in on break out level, only for the market to do a U turn on my arse and wipe me out).

[European Central Bank]

Mat, this wouldn't happen to be you would it?

https://www.reddit.com/r/fscomeau/comments/5qj64l/well_this_is_it_going_allin_my_last_stand_my/

Demo account trade. But great read anyway.

not according to this - https://www.reddit.com/r/pitchforkemporium/comments/5rbazn/ufscomeau_has_faked_the_trade_he_wsa_using_a_demo/dd7jn8a/

if any of it's real i don't have one shred of sympathy for the guy. what a total asshole. he could've parked 95% of his windfall and still made decent money if he was any good. he would also have discovered he was no good and still been fine.

[STT]

Dont give long term estimates in US dollars I recommend, it just swings back to the same argument of US debt unwinding.   This gives me no information on the commodity being discussed, bitcoin, silver or oil etc
Bitcoin might goto 10,000 and I still would be worse off then just paying off my house mortgage instead.  If we're talking 25 years which is fair then it cant really be estimated properly in just one country's currency.  If my mortgage was fixed rate in dollars then sure its all about dollar prices now and for the term of the fix but for alot of people thats not true and they will never consider it.  I still think bitcoin is about the small money people not big but maybe Im wrong

Until now, Hong Kong has been regarded as a haven from arbitrary police and judicial action, but global companies will have to reconsider this in the wake of Mr Xiao’s disappearance. In mainland China itself, his abduction will send a chilling message to the super-wealthy, who already believe Mr Xi has launched a war against them. It will also accelerate the pace of capital flight.

https://www.ft.com/content/4335d364-e7d4-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539


Bitcoin quite bullish now, the test being to establish itself above any double top scenario.    Im interested how many currencies have made new highs in Bitcoin, Egypt will be one of them after losing value by drastic amounts last year

i don't have one shred of sympathy for the guy

I blame grandpa, most find that much cash a burden.  The smart thing is to share it around, act like a poor man who knows little on every decision.  Only build on your success not your guess

[MatDerKater]

[Torque]

MattD if you are out of the Bitcoin market, then why do you care?

Oh wait... closed your short yet?  

[MatDerKater]

MattD if you are out of the Bitcoin market, then why do you care?

Oh wait... closed your short yet?  

I still like to follow markets, and Bitcoin is a market I have paid very close attention to.....

.....oddly, when one doesn't have a trade on, or have a litany of recent trades, whether they be wins or losses, the market also seems so much clearer.

[Ibian]

MattD if you are out of the Bitcoin market, then why do you care?

Oh wait... closed your short yet?  

He's a narcissist.

[V1saya]

Is bitcoin not going back to 900 or even 800 something this month? I want to buy some when my salary comes. I think it will. Maybe in hearts day?   

[MatDerKater]

Is bitcoin not going back to 900 or even 800 something this month? I want to buy some when my salary comes. I think it will. Maybe in hearts day?  

Wouldn't put a time scale on it, bit far more probability that Bitcoin will sharply reverse here, than there is that Bitcoin will keep on ploughing up the chart. Wouldn't want to try and short this, cos Bitcoin is a raging bull atm, and there is always the chance that Bitcoin will keep popping just that little bit higher against the grain, but certainly not a buying point here.......and for anyone who says that it is, I could point them in the direction of loads of better (less risk, higher potential reward) trades than Bitcoin right now.

If I was looking to buy Bitcoin right now, I would be looking closely at the lower $900s, where there is quite strong support (and by 'strong' support, I mean strong relative to the total nosebleed territory that Bitcoin is in). If Bitcoin gets down to $900 in the midst of any kind of violent sell off, I would risk a bid at around $850, along the 61.8% retrace from the $750 - $1140 move.

[MatDerKater]

So here Bitcoin is again, for a 2nd test of the 4th Gann Arc, so I think it is worthwhile posting this chart again. Same message as last time, far more probability of Bitcoin failing here and reversing sharply, than there is of Bitcoin bursting right through.......With that said, I have no skin in the game and wouldn't have the stomach to have any skin in the game either, neither long nor short. That is one parabolic looking chart for a worthless digital token, yet a worthless digital token with more than it's fair share of zealots and manipulators.