BFL Minirig seems like a spectacular bargain?

[misterbigg]

Assuming:

1) The BFL Minirig ships
2) Network hash rate stays under 500Th/s
3) Bitcoin price remains stable
4) Actual performance of the minirig is close to expeted performance

Then, it seems to me that having a Minirig is basically having a license to print Bitcoins. It would pay for itself after a few short months, and by the time a year has passed you have thousands of extra coins. Maybe even 10,000BTC?

Is this right, or is my math off?

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[bcpokey]

Assuming all those conditions, the same statement is true for any number of ASICs, with the given specs, or combination thereof, up until you control 500TH/s,

The problem is that
1) Network hashrate will not stay under 500TH/sec, if ASICs do ship, guaranteed.
2) Bitcoin price will likely not remain stable.

Otherwise, yeah, I guess it's a magical money machine.

[alexkravets]

Assuming all those conditions, the same statement is true for any number of ASICs, with the given specs, or combination thereof, up until you control 500TH/s,

The problem is that
1) Network hashrate will not stay under 500TH/sec, if ASICs do ship, guaranteed.
2) Bitcoin price will likely not remain stable.

Otherwise, yeah, I guess it's a magical money machine.

OK, we don't need to worry about 2) above because over longer periods of time volatility is gonna be factored out of the equation, unless you believe in total collapse of bitcoin to zero in which case you have no business mining at all.

As for 1) above, may I ask what are you basing your very big claim that total hash rate will NOT stay under 500 THash/sec.  Do you have a magic hash rate prediction machine or is there a list of total ASICs already ordered, paid for and about to ship whose total hash rate adds up to way above 500 THash ?

[Puppet]

As for 1) above, may I ask what are you basing your very big claim that total hash rate will NOT stay under 500 THash/sec. 

The simple fact a minirig would be so insanely profitable will guarantee hashrate will go up until it no longer is. And preorders alone may well get you there.  Your only hope is that BFL and its competition has trouble producing and delivering enough of them, *and* that you are one of the lucky few to receive yours early.

[alexkravets]

As for 1) above, may I ask what are you basing your very big claim that total hash rate will NOT stay under 500 THash/sec. 

The simple fact a minirig would be so insanely profitable will guarantee hashrate will go up until it no longer is. And preorders alone may well get you there.  Your only hope is that BFL and its competition has trouble producing and delivering enough of them, *and* that you are one of the lucky few to receive yours early.

Right ... this kind of reply is what I call "Conventional Wisdom Strikes Again".  What you say is of course true but ONLY about the whole network in aggregate ... i.e. assuming your hash power only keeps up with the average joe schmo miner then you'll experience average joe schmoe near zero returns ... however while in aggregate mining is always gonna be a very low margin business, *some* people will be a lot more profitable than the average ...

[Puppet]

Yeah, but its not the miner buying a minirig, its the miner getting them before everyone else does.

[alexkravets]

Yeah, but its not the miner buying a minirig, its the miner getting them before everyone else does.

Nope, wrong again, sorry.  The timing of getting the minirig or any other kind of ASICs equipment only matters in the very short term. 
In the long run, the miners able to increase their own hash rate at a rate faster than the average (i.e. the aggregate hash rate of the network) will collect the lion share of mining profits.

The name of the game is to stay ahead of the amateurs not to be first out of the gate.

[Puppet]

Yeah, but its not the miner buying a minirig, its the miner getting them before everyone else does.

Nope, wrong again, sorry.  The timing of getting the minirig or any other kind of ASICs equipment only matters in the very short term. 
In the long run, the miners able to increase their own hash rate at a rate faster than the average (i.e. the aggregate hash rate of the network) will collect the lion share of mining profits.

Nonsense. Whether you order 1 or 100 minirigs, the cost per GH remains the same, and the profits will actually go down a bit, as you start competing with yourself. If you order more than is good for you, you might be able negotiate a discount that BFL isnt advertising, but if that is were you are hoping to get your profit from, good luck.

OTOH,  if you buy now or 1 year from now, the cost per GH will likely be several times lower then. You may not understand ASICs, but while they are being sold as if they are made from pure gold,  the variable cost to produce them is close to ~$0 per chip.  BFL and the others will keep producing them (BFL alone have said to have 75K chips on order so far, good for ~500TH) and keep selling them at whatever price the market will bear until the price gets close to their variable cost. When that happens, you will be mining with a minirig that cost at least 10x, possibly 100x as much. Good luck earning back your investment if you havent yet by that time.

[thoughtfan]

Yeah, but its not the miner buying a minirig, its the miner getting them before everyone else does.

Nope, wrong again, sorry.  The timing of getting the minirig or any other kind of ASICs equipment only matters in the very short term.  
In the long run, the miners able to increase their own hash rate at a rate faster than the average (i.e. the aggregate hash rate of the network) will collect the lion share of mining profits.

The name of the game is to stay ahead of the amateurs not to be first out of the gate.

I believe you are mistaken on this.  You are correct when you say timing counts 'only in the very short term' but that 'only' makes a massive difference to the overall profitability of the equipment.

More importantly is this idea of 'lion's share' and 'amateurs'.  The implication is that those buying on an industrial scale will do much better than those who don't.  My point on this is per $ for anyone buying from the current ASIC offerings there is very little difference whether you're buying $1,000 or $100,000's worth of kit.  The margins and ROI is not far off the same offering virtually no economies-of-scale advantages to big spenders.  The ASIC manufacturers have very little incentive to offer big discounts for those buying bulk because each unit out of the door decreases the value of the remaining units.

Sorry to all those reading me saying this for the umpteenth time but I don't like potential 'hobbyist' ASIC miners being put off by the idea that ASICs means we'll get squeezed out by the big boys.  We may make very little money other for the few who receive early (depending ultimately on power costs) but rest assured the big spenders are in the same boat unless they have sourced cheap power.

Edit:  Just saw Puppet's post which more-or-less says the same.  No harm in repeating though

[alexkravets]

Guys,

You both make valid points.
1. It's true that cost per Ghash will be plummeting rapidly because those ASICs chips are very inexpensive to manufacture and will become less expensive over time, so YES
    a year or two from now something with 1.5Thash capacity like the minirig might cost $3000 instead of $30,000.

2. It's also true that it does not matter if you buy a mini-rig or a jalapeno b/c they have a nearly identical cost of Ghash of capacity, so mini-rig buyers do not have any inherent advantages over smaller guys buying jalapenos.

However, neither point invalidates the crux of my argument, namely: In the aggregate the total mining network will have very low profit margins because it's so ruthlessly competitive it's basically a model of pure competition, still there will be a bell-curve like distribution of *rates of growth* of hashing power between mining operations and any mining operation that can stay ahead of the average network growth hashrate by rotating depreciating equipment out and buying newer more powerful ASCIs equipment in, will end up capturing larger and larger share of total hashrate and therefore larger and larger share of all the coins being mined at that roughly constant rate (for the next 4 years).

It doesn't matter if you get a jalapeno or a minirig today, what matters is your turnaround time to get grow hash rate capacity relative to the average miner and thereby capture larger and larger share of the remaining coins.  Another hidden assumption in my argument is that you can continue running your operation WITHOUT necessarily having to cash out your coins for fiat to keep financing it, because not having to cash out your coins would allow you to ride out any volatility.  Eventually of course (one per year ?) you'd need to sell some coins to recoup the cost of previous year's investments ...

[Puppet]

Being an amateur or a pro provides zero benefits. Assuming you have the skills needed to plug it in, everyone will enjoy or suffer the same ROI, there is no benefit of scale, nothing to compete on, there is nothing you can do to get a better profitability than anyone else with the same hardware (and ultimately, same electricity cost which will become an issue again down the line). The only variable that really matters is time. Get your gear early, and you might get rich. Get them late and you will burn money.

As for continually upgrading; it doesnt matter. If a new faster/cheaper ASIC product comes out, either it will have a positive ROI or it wont. Who owns it, or how many he owns is irrelevant, its the same for everyone.

[alexkravets]

Being an amateur or a pro provides zero benefits. Assuming you have the skills needed to plug it in, everyone will enjoy or suffer the same ROI, there is no benefit of scale, nothing to compete on, there is nothing you can do to get a better profitability than anyone else with the same hardware (and ultimately, same electricity cost which will become an issue again down the line). The only variable that really matters is time. Get your gear early, and you might get rich. Get them late and you will burn money.

As for continually upgrading; it doesnt matter. If a new faster/cheaper ASIC product comes out, either it will have a positive ROI or it wont. Who owns it, or how many he owns is irrelevant, its the same for everyone.

Allow me to define my terms a little better:

Amateur is someone who buys a piece of mining equipment and sits on it watching its returns decline and his equipment become worthless.
Pro is someone who keeps upgrading his average mix of equipment to sustain a growth rate of his hashing power faster than an average "amateur" or the network as a whole ( which is pretty much the same thing )

Now, given the above definitions, is it not the case that the pro will eventually be taking a larger share of the "fixed" pie ?

Yes it's true that for any given equipment purchase there is no advantage ... but it's the growth rate of hash power that determines the outcome not a particular snapshot in time

[Puppet]

Pro is someone who keeps upgrading his average mix of equipment to sustain a growth rate of his hashing power faster than an average "amateur" or the network as a whole ( which is pretty much the same thing )

So you mean the pro is the one that keeps throwing good money after bad? If the investment proves unprofitable for either miner, buying more isnt going to solve it. Growth rate is meaningless.  If you try to grow your hashrate along with the network, so will your profits or losses, no different than the "amateur". Hashrate is fungible, costs and profits scale linearly. Well, actually, only costs scale linearly, as profits scale  less than linearly if you are talking large enough numbers.

If you are referring to BFL's upgrade program, dont count on that ever existing for ASICs, and even if it does, it will be like now where you have to double down your investment to get the discount.  The only reason BFL and its competitors offered upgrades is because otherwise no sane person would have kept buying FPGAs after they announced the ASICs. Regardless, betting your business on someone offering you a freebee that they never promised is rather silly.

[alexkravets]

If you try to grow your hashrate along with the network, so will your profits or losses, no different than the "amateur". Hashrate is fungible, costs and profits scale linearly. Well, actually, only costs scale linearly, as profits scale  less than linearly if you are talking large enough numbers.

This is true, but ONLY if you measure your profit or loss in USD.  If BTC/USD rate spikes, you simply purchase new equipment with previously mined coins, if BTC/USD price collapses, so will the network hash rate (as it did during the bubble pop) and then you'll capture more BTCs as your share of the hash rate will increase. 

If you have to keep selling BTCs to pay rent, electricity or to buy more mining equipment, then you cannot play the pro version of this game.

[meowmeowbrowncow]

Pro is someone who keeps upgrading his average mix of equipment to sustain a growth rate of his hashing power faster than an average "amateur" or the network as a whole ( which is pretty much the same thing )

So you mean the pro is the one that keeps throwing good money after bad? If the investment proves unprofitable for either miner, buying more isnt going to solve it. Growth rate is meaningless.  If you try to grow your hashrate along with the network, so will your profits or losses, no different than the "amateur". Hashrate is fungible, costs and profits scale linearly. Well, actually, only costs scale linearly, as profits scale  less than linearly if you are talking large enough numbers.

If you are referring to BFL's upgrade program, dont count on that ever existing for ASICs, and even if it does, it will be like now where you have to double down your investment to get the discount.  The only reason BFL and its competitors offered upgrades is because otherwise no sane person would have kept buying FPGAs after they announced the ASICs. Regardless, betting your business on someone offering you a freebee that they never promised is rather silly.

It's a 'pro' strategy in gambling.  So... FWIW.

[Puppet]

f BTC/USD price collapses, so will the network hash rate (as it did during the bubble pop)

Wrong. People shut down $150 GPUs that cost $15 per month in electricity.
Who is going to shut down a $30.000 minirig that costs $100 to run?
No one. So dont expect hash rate to scale down with BTC price until the main cost of asics is electricity again and network hashrate is measured in petahash.

[Beepbop]

Also, don't forget opportunity cost. While it's sort of neat to have "a computer that pays for itself, including upgrades", if there's anything else that has a higher ROI (and perhaps lower risk) it's better to treat mining as a gamble and just divest yourself once electricity cost catches up with payout. If it suddenly becomes more profitable again, you can just buy a whole new rig with fiat currency. Having an existing unprofitable mining rig and a hoard of BTC is not going to give you a leg up. Even if the vendor takes payment in BTC you'd just be better served buying those BTC on the open market.
And if you're sure that BTC will go up, just buy them and speculate with them. No need for a mining rig.

Buying ASICs for mining is a bet that you'll get yours before most others do, so you can earn it back fast, and after that you're doing a public service by securing the network and handling transactions. It's an arms race that's mainly pointless except as to make sure that no individual group controls 51% of the network. And fills up the order books of manufacturing facilitities like some kind of New Deal project

[fnordfnordfnord]

...  (depending ultimately on power costs) but rest assured the big spenders are in the same boat unless they have sourced cheap power.

Edit:  Just saw Puppet's post which more-or-less says the same.  No harm in repeating though

ASICs (Avalon) are something like 100x more power efficient than video card rigs.

[thoughtfan]

...  (depending ultimately on power costs) but rest assured the big spenders are in the same boat unless they have sourced cheap power.

Edit:  Just saw Puppet's post which more-or-less says the same.  No harm in repeating though

ASICs (Avalon) are something like 100x more power efficient than video card rigs.

And right now this means power efficiency of the various ASIC options and variations in power prices counts for very little.  But for how long?  I was referring to a time after the initial mayhem has settled.

[Keninishna]

Something to think about is that the network generates 25 btc every 10 min more or less depending on the difficulty. When you use a newer more efficient tech you are essentially taking profits from those in the network who are using the lesser tech. Mining is a competition not just a race for finite resource.

[niko]

Something to think about is that the network generates 25 btc every 10 min more or less depending on the difficulty. When you use a newer more efficient tech you are essentially taking profits from those in the network who are using the lesser tech. Mining is a competition not just a race for finite resource.

This.

The cost of best available technology (in $s/H), and energy efficiency (in J/H) are approximately same for everyone. Everyone is competing for a piece of the same cake by deciding how much to invest based on expected BTC price, RoI period, and the two figures given above.   Plug in the past numbers (for GPUs), with the RoI of 6 months, and you'll be able to "predict" past difficulty. This is why, as has been shown many times here, price drives difficulty (with a few weeks worth of a lag).

So, in answer to OP: mining will always be marginally profitable. You could gamble on BTC price going up, and invest, and if you get lucky the RoI period might get shorter and profits higher - because others decided not to gamble. The biggest advantage is to be able to afford to keep mining at a loss: weak miners will be shaken off in these periods, and you will be able to get cheap equipment and consolidate power. This is why optimal setting for mining is hobby, where you don't really care if you are losing a little bit once in a while during dry spells.

The only catch in this analysis is the assumption that best available technology is accessible to everyone at the same price. ASICMINER might change the game and push mining ecosystem from a hobby towards a large, private entities competing to exclusively and perpetually grow their farms and optimize their technology, and ultimately to get the cheapest possible power. Eventually, they will have to start competing for payees by offering cheaper and/or faster and/or more private processing of payments.

[gogxmagog]

seems like the old idea that says "you don't get anything for free" is alive and well here. Pessimistic attitudes demand we believe that as soon as technology improves, and more "labor saving devices" appear, rather than simply making things easier, space is freed up for new difficulties to arise. A "damned if you do and damned if you don't" situation.
All ASICs will do is force GPU mining into obsolescence and make the manufacturers a load of cash. That said, adopters of ASIC will have a corner on the mining market and the increase in difficulty and hash will be balanced by the changeover in numbers of actual miners as the people involved shifts from GPU to ASIC. that should take about a year or so.
It reminds me of the film industry when everything became digital back in the 90s. Some doors shut in the face of long time analogue technicians, many doors opened for both those adept at change and newbies to the biz. now everything is digital and things look more or less the same as before the changeover.
What I reiterate here is the long-term view that ASIC profitability and difficulty will simply level out until the next-gen technology comes out.
However, I do believe that making specialized and expensive equipment essential to mining of BTC may adversely affect its value. If I have to invest thousands to be in the game in any sort of substantial way, that alone could be enough for me to decide BTC is not a viable currency. Why should I participate in an economy that is dominated by the few who are in a position to invest heavily. Its techno-elitism, which is poisonous to non-geeks i.e. 95% of the population.

[vdragon]

gogxmagog that is exatly what i was wanting to say all these days, just couldnt find the right words...

[niko]

However, I do believe that making specialized and expensive equipment essential to mining of BTC may adversely affect its value. If I have to invest thousands to be in the game in any sort of substantial way, that alone could be enough for me to decide BTC is not a viable currency. Why should I participate in an economy that is dominated by the few who are in a position to invest heavily. Its techno-elitism, which is poisonous to non-geeks i.e. 95% of the population.

You don't have to invest thousands just to stay in thr game. This is a misconception. As somebody already pointed out, the per-dollar return is pretty much the same for everyone who mines with off-the-shelf products. Scaling up does not lead to significant savings - on the contrary: unlike hobby miners, you need to start worrying about administrative overhead, heat management, investors, wiring, and general dependance of your life and career on the operation.

The only minor difference stems from the cost of electricity. Building your own ASICs is a different story.

[Bicknellski]

Why should I participate in an economy that is dominated by the few who are in a position to invest heavily. Its techno-elitism, which is poisonous to non-geeks i.e. 95% of the population.

It always has been. There are billions who have no access to clean water, proper housing and food. Mining BTC has always been techno-elitism, now it is even more rarefied. 99.999% of people on the planet have never mined a bit coin and probably never will and that is the perspective I like to use. Asics for poverty reduction I say.

[Bemtje]

Only time will tell as the increase in difficulty is still unknown. I doubt it'll be less than a year ROI.

[OrangeVonPurple]

So, the name of the game is to always stay on the bleeding edge of the available tech...in the hopes that you are implementing and bringing that tech to bare so you can collect an increased percentage of profits before all the other guys catch up. Then it's rinse and repeat with the next innovation?

Sorry if this is an ultra-noob understanding of all this I'm just fascinated by the whole process.

[niko]

So, the name of the game is to always stay on the bleeding edge of the available tech...in the hopes that you are implementing and bringing that tech to bare so you can collect an increased percentage of profits before all the other guys catch up. Then it's rinse and repeat with the next innovation?

Sorry if this is an ultra-noob understanding of all this I'm just fascinated by the whole process.

That sounds reasonable. There has been lots of discussion lately of mining economics in the context of transaction fees and various proposed changes (or lack of changes) to the maximum block size. Might wanna look into that - lots of guesswork, speculation, and wishful thinking about an immensely complex issue (coding, game theory, human nature, economics, networking, moore's law...).

[Fuzzy]

It's an arms race [that] fills up the order books of manufacturing facilitities.

That about sums it up. The manufacturers get rich, while the miners compete for a share of the pie, and there are more and more contenders entering the game, so you have to keep expanding your operation just to maintain the size of your stake.

It's proven (to me) to be about twice as profitable as buying and holding, but also 4 times as stressful and time consuming.

[OrangeVonPurple]

That about sums it up. The manufacturers get rich, while the miners compete for a share of the pie, and there are more and more contenders entering the game, so you have to keep expanding your operation just to maintain the size of your stake.

It all has a very "goldrush" feeling to it that, honestly, is pretty exciting


Thanks for taking the time to answer my questions guys!

[opentoe]

Assuming:

1) The BFL Minirig ships
2) Network hash rate stays under 500Th/s
3) Bitcoin price remains stable
4) Actual performance of the minirig is close to expeted performance

Then, it seems to me that having a Minirig is basically having a license to print Bitcoins. It would pay for itself after a few short months, and by the time a year has passed you have thousands of extra coins. Maybe even 10,000BTC?

Is this right, or is my math off?

Considering BFL won't ship for another few months is very likely. I've been reading/following their blogs and it's all about delays, delays, delays and am I wrong or there isn't even a working prototype yet? What if the whole things fails terribly? The incentive of money lured so many people in and BFL indicating shipping dates so wrong is just unethical and immoral.

[bonker]

Assuming:

1) The BFL Minirig ships
2) Network hash rate stays under 500Th/s
3) Bitcoin price remains stable
4) Actual performance of the minirig is close to expeted performance

Then, it seems to me that having a Minirig is basically having a license to print Bitcoins. It would pay for itself after a few short months, and by the time a year has passed you have thousands of extra coins. Maybe even 10,000BTC?

Is this right, or is my math off?

5) BFL aren't mining themselves IF they actually have the technology

But you are correct. ASICs are effortless, free money for the masses.. Praise Be!

[firefop]

So, the name of the game is to always stay on the bleeding edge of the available tech...in the hopes that you are implementing and bringing that tech to bare so you can collect an increased percentage of profits before all the other guys catch up. Then it's rinse and repeat with the next innovation?

Sorry if this is an ultra-noob understanding of all this I'm just fascinated by the whole process.

I suppose you could look at it that way...

What it really comes down to is economy of scale. Yes, I know that the useful idiots tend not to agree. But listen this is more about simple economics than anything else. If you invest to the point that you're making whatever income level from mining that you want. Then you re-invest to compensate for total network hash rate increases so you continue to make that income level (or more). The economy of scale comes into effect in how much gross btc you can generate in a short enough time frame to keep pulling that income.

Because the more income you have the more quickly you can add hardware. It will of course all come down to power consumption in the run. Once we reach that point then you have to make the decision of stopping purchases of new hardware and profit taking or finding better hardware, cheaper power, etc.

I say - drop your 120k on mining hardware. Pull in 20k a month... spend half your profits to buy more hardware... be happy to hit 100% a year on your investment.

[Puppet]

So, the name of the game is to always stay on the bleeding edge of the available tech...in the hopes that you are implementing and bringing that tech to bare so you can collect an increased percentage of profits before all the other guys catch up. Then it's rinse and repeat with the next innovation?

Sorry if this is an ultra-noob understanding of all this I'm just fascinated by the whole process.

I suppose you could look at it that way...

What it really comes down to is economy of scale. Yes, I know that the useful idiots tend not to agree. But listen this is more about simple economics than anything else. If you invest to the point that you're making whatever income level from mining that you want. Then you re-invest to compensate for total network hash rate increases so you continue to make that income level (or more). The economy of scale comes into effect in how much gross btc you can generate in a short enough time frame to keep pulling that income.

Thats just... daft.
Apply your logic to a CPU miner today, to see how nonsensical your argument is. There is no economy of scale, the only one that does exist works against you, as you start competing with yourself at a too big scale. You have an implicit assumption that mining is and always will be profitable. Thats very far from certain. If one mining rig is not profitable, buying 100 more isnt going to make it profitable.

[thoughtfan]

Yes, I know that the useful idiots tend not to agree....

By 'useful idiots' do you mean those who can do the math?!

Edit:  OK, so maybe I could make this post a little more 'useful' than a sarky comment!

We've already covered above that there is no virtually no advantage in terms of ROI between spending $1k or $1,000k on units bought at the same time.  If it is still not clear I would recommend thinking of each unit bought as a separate investment.  Whether you buy from money obtained from other work or from mining makes no difference to the potential to profit.  The only difference between buying all together at the beginning and the longer term re-investing of mined moneys is that each subsequent (identical) unit will make you less because the difficulty will be higher.

Of course many see their profits from mining in a different way than other money and subsequently I guess think of the risk differently.  But in a way I suppose it is like the way people like to look at staking schemes for bets.  People are too easily convinced (most often by themselves) that timing and sophisticated staking plans are going to turn a bet or combination of bets that are not particularly attractive on their own into a virtually guaranteed success.  People still believe in Martingale despite all the information you need being available in seconds with a search engine.  But each bet and each piece of mining gear will or will not profit according to how much you paid, its hashing power, its consumption and the total hashing power out there.  No matter how 'sophisticated' the staking plan it will never make a success of shit bets.

I'm not saying the BFL Minirig or any other ASIC is a bad idea but make your judgement on your assessment of that single unit bought at the time you'll buy it and don't depend on any future re-investment programme to bail you out if it doesn't work out in the first place.

I happen to be awaiting a BFL Single and a Mini-Single.  If you start mining your Minirig the same day I start with my two little ones and we pay approximately the same for electricity we will get our money back not far off the same day.  If by the time we get them the difficulty is such that there's very little to be made but that I'll get a little something back from it I'll still be happy with it for novelty's sake and to be supporting the network.  What about you?

[opentoe]

Assuming:

1) The BFL Minirig ships
2) Network hash rate stays under 500Th/s
3) Bitcoin price remains stable
4) Actual performance of the minirig is close to expeted performance

Then, it seems to me that having a Minirig is basically having a license to print Bitcoins. It would pay for itself after a few short months, and by the time a year has passed you have thousands of extra coins. Maybe even 10,000BTC?

Is this right, or is my math off?

5) BFL aren't mining themselves IF they actually have the technology

But you are correct. ASICs are effortless, free money for the masses.. Praise Be!

I'll disagree. They cost quite a bit and you pay for it and then hope to see it one day. The day you actually receive the network could be completely different and what would take just a couple weeks to get your money back could change into months or even years in just a few months. "Free money" is for those that didn't have to buy it. I could walk down the street and make more money picking up change I find then with any BFL miner.

[MangoJ]

But you are correct. ASICs are effortless, free money for the masses.. Praise Be!

That would be something.  Amazing even,  if ASIC miners were even real.   

[Fuzzy]

But you are correct. ASICs are effortless, free money for the masses.. Praise Be!

That would be something.  Amazing even,  if ASIC miners were even real.   

Are you suggesting, that the ASIC's are a lie?

[crazyates]

But you are correct. ASICs are effortless, free money for the masses.. Praise Be!

That would be something.  Amazing even,  if ASIC miners were even real.   

Are you suggesting, that the ASIC's are a lie?

No, but the cake is.

[MangoJ]

But you are correct. ASICs are effortless, free money for the masses.. Praise Be!

That would be something.  Amazing even,  if ASIC miners were even real.   

Are you suggesting, that the ASIC's are a lie?

I am not suggesting, I am making a clear statement that I do not believe anyone that ordered an ASIC miner (from BFL or Avalon) will ever receive it.  "Jeff" and the "foundation" appear to be low quality fake "evidence".  I see zero "normal" people with youtube accounts that were not created in 1 day with 1 low quality video (IE the "foundation").

Where are the people that have been on youtube for over a month, showing these off? 
Please tell me if I am wrong, I would love to see that BFL didn't commit mail fraud.. (again.  He is on probation for mail fraud in the past.)

[Beepbop]

I am not suggesting, I am making a clear statement that I do not believe anyone that ordered an ASIC miner (from BFL or Avalon) will ever receive it.  "Jeff" and the "foundation" appear to be low quality fake "evidence".

MangoJ will deny the existence of ASIC miners until the cows come home, and then he'll deny the existence of both the cows and the ASICs.

The post count on YouTube is not a source of trust any more than donator status on Bitcointalk is.

[crazyates]

I am not suggesting, I am making a clear statement that I do not believe anyone that ordered an ASIC miner (from BFL or Avalon) will ever receive it.  "Jeff" and the "foundation" appear to be low quality fake "evidence".  I see zero "normal" people with youtube accounts that were not created in 1 day with 1 low quality video (IE the "foundation").

Where are the people that have been on youtube for over a month, showing these off? 
Please tell me if I am wrong, I would love to see that BFL didn't commit mail fraud.. (again.  He is on probation for mail fraud in the past.)

Umm have you seen the network recently? ASICMiner has come online, with several TH/s of hashpower. Several other pools have shown drastic increase in hashpower, as users point their ASICs toward them (Esp Ozcoin as of recently).

As far as BFL is concerned, who said anything about mail fraud? That doesn't even make sense. Kano (a very prominent member here on the forums, and one of the programmers for CGMiner) recently visited the BFL campus, and basically said he left there with zero concerns about them being a scam.

You have 10 posts, clearly don't know what you're talking about, and you look like an ostrich with your head in the sand.

[creativex]

But you are correct. ASICs are effortless, free money for the masses.. Praise Be!

That would be something.  Amazing even,  if ASIC miners were even real.   

Are you suggesting, that the ASIC's are a lie?

I am not suggesting, I am making a clear statement that I do not believe anyone that ordered an ASIC miner (from BFL or Avalon) will ever receive it.  "Jeff" and the "foundation" appear to be low quality fake "evidence".  I see zero "normal" people with youtube accounts that were not created in 1 day with 1 low quality video (IE the "foundation").

Where are the people that have been on youtube for over a month, showing these off? 
Please tell me if I am wrong, I would love to see that BFL didn't commit mail fraud.. (again.  He is on probation for mail fraud in the past.)

LOL

Newbs showing up calling bitcoin founders liars. Now there's a credibility gap. There is evidence of ASIC mining gear hitting the network all around you. Just open your eyes and you will see it. Search for the words Avalon and ASICMiner as both have ASIC gear hashing at this time.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.2160
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=147936.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.0

[opentoe]

But you are correct. ASICs are effortless, free money for the masses.. Praise Be!

That would be something.  Amazing even,  if ASIC miners were even real.   

Are you suggesting, that the ASIC's are a lie?

I am not suggesting, I am making a clear statement that I do not believe anyone that ordered an ASIC miner (from BFL or Avalon) will ever receive it.  "Jeff" and the "foundation" appear to be low quality fake "evidence".  I see zero "normal" people with youtube accounts that were not created in 1 day with 1 low quality video (IE the "foundation").

Where are the people that have been on youtube for over a month, showing these off? 
Please tell me if I am wrong, I would love to see that BFL didn't commit mail fraud.. (again.  He is on probation for mail fraud in the past.)

Can you elaborate this mail fraud? I don't know what you mean, seriously, I don't know.

[MangoJ]

BFL CEO plead guilty to mail fraud in 2007
http://coinbits.com/2012/09/19/ceo-of-butterfly-labs-is-a-felon-plead-guilty-to-mail-fraud-in-2007-spent-14-months-in-prison/
First reported here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=109515.msg1202299#msg1202299

Confirmed by BFL employee here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=109349.msg1202784#msg1202784

Read the original: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/105ii4/ceo_of_butterfly_labs_is_a_felon_plead_guilty_to/


How many months of "pre-order" money has BFL taken all while telling people excuses for delays?
4,5,6 months?

Renting a few bot-nets for 1 or 2 single users in a pool to crank up 3000G/h does not impress me.  That is one user.  Is it BFL or Avalon using their own equipment?  Because if ASIC was delivered to anyone.. why don't we see more than 2 people with over 100G/h?

I submit to you, that the mega giga hash users.. all 2 of them.. are bot nets.
If ASIC is real.. where can I find a pool that has more than 2 people above 100 G/h?
Each ASIC can do 80.  A bunch of people would buy one.  Several would buy more than one.

Show me more than 2 and I will believe it.
But it isnt from BFL.   
Avalon?
Youtube cell phone videos?  LOL
I am mad at the criminals and at the victims.

[MangoJ]

I am not suggesting, I am making a clear statement that I do not believe anyone that ordered an ASIC miner (from BFL or Avalon) will ever receive it.  "Jeff" and the "foundation" appear to be low quality fake "evidence".

MangoJ will deny the existence of ASIC miners until the cows come home, and then he'll deny the existence of both the cows and the ASICs.

The post count on YouTube is not a source of trust any more than donator status on Bitcointalk is.

When someone tells you something you dont want to hear, do you always make jokes back at them?

A post count of 1, from a brand new youtube account, showing a video taken from a low end cellphone, that fails to show the ASIC up close.. reeks of fraud to anyone that is warry.

What kind of a proof video is done so poorly?

[Beepbop]

A post count of 12 from a brand new Bitcointalk account, making low quality posts. Except, as I said above, post count or donator status is not a sufficient indicator of trust. Somehow I think the Bitcoin Foundation holds more credibility than any anonymous Bitcointalk user, regardless of post count.

When someone tells you something you dont want to hear, do you always make jokes back at them?

Actually I do want to hear it, because I love listening to conspiracy theorists who live in an alternate reality. In the case of BFL I would also have been amused if they turned out to be a complete scam, but so far it seems they are indeed trying to make ASIC products.

What kind of a proof video is done so poorly?

That means you don't trust the Bitcoin Foundation. And since you don't trust the blockchain either, there's literally nothing that will coinvince you that ASICs exist. Maybe except if you get given one for free? 
Avalon were right when they said that it would be pointless for them to waste time making video proof, since somebody wouldn't believe the proof anyway, so they would let the blockchain and their customers do the talking. Apparently even that wouldn't convince some people.

[creativex]

BFL CEO plead guilty to mail fraud in 2007
http://coinbits.com/2012/09/19/ceo-of-butterfly-labs-is-a-felon-plead-guilty-to-mail-fraud-in-2007-spent-14-months-in-prison/
First reported here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=109515.msg1202299#msg1202299

Confirmed by BFL employee here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=109349.msg1202784#msg1202784

Read the original: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/105ii4/ceo_of_butterfly_labs_is_a_felon_plead_guilty_to/


How many months of "pre-order" money has BFL taken all while telling people excuses for delays?
4,5,6 months?

Renting a few bot-nets for 1 or 2 single users in a pool to crank up 3000G/h does not impress me.  That is one user.  Is it BFL or Avalon using their own equipment?  Because if ASIC was delivered to anyone.. why don't we see more than 2 people with over 100G/h?

I submit to you, that the mega giga hash users.. all 2 of them.. are bot nets.
If ASIC is real.. where can I find a pool that has more than 2 people above 100 G/h?
Each ASIC can do 80.  A bunch of people would buy one.  Several would buy more than one.

Show me more than 2 and I will believe it.
But it isnt from BFL.   
Avalon?
Youtube cell phone videos?  LOL
I am mad at the criminals and at the victims.

BFL is staffed by incompetent bozos and convicted felons, that much is true, but ASICMiner and Avalon have indeed created ASIC mining hardware. The evidence is all over the forums and all over the pools.

http://www.btcguild.com/index.php?page=rankings
http://ozco.in/content/hall-fame-round-shares-bitcoin
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=7

[Puppet]

BFL is staffed by incompetent bozos and convicted felons, that much is true, but ASICMiner and Avalon have indeed created ASIC mining hardware. The evidence is all over the forums and all over the pools.

It doesnt even make sense to suspect BFL is running a scam. If they were, they would have closed shop by now and ran off with the money. The bulk of their sales already happened a long time ago, so  if it were a scam, they pulled it off already. Why keep paying for offices and personnel and storage rooms full of custom cases etc ?

[creativex]

BFL is staffed by incompetent bozos and convicted felons, that much is true, but ASICMiner and Avalon have indeed created ASIC mining hardware. The evidence is all over the forums and all over the pools.

It doesnt even make sense to suspect BFL is running a scam. If they were, they would have closed shop by now and ran off with the money. The bulk of their sales already happened a long time ago, so  if it were a scam, they pulled it off already. Why keep paying for offices and personnel and storage rooms full of custom cases etc ?

I didn't say they were running a scam, I said they're incompetent. I believe they've intentionally lied about their timetables and they never anticipated shipping ASIC products in October of 2012. They've since lied about shipping dates and fabricated excuses for the delays to keep the pre-order funds rolling in, but no, I do not believe they intend to abscond with the funds. I believe they're trying to deliver an ASIC product and may do as much...eventually, if they're not shut down by the FTC, AG's office, or bankrupted first.

[opentoe]

BFL is staffed by incompetent bozos and convicted felons, that much is true, but ASICMiner and Avalon have indeed created ASIC mining hardware. The evidence is all over the forums and all over the pools.

It doesnt even make sense to suspect BFL is running a scam. If they were, they would have closed shop by now and ran off with the money. The bulk of their sales already happened a long time ago, so  if it were a scam, they pulled it off already. Why keep paying for offices and personnel and storage rooms full of custom cases etc ?

Here's the rub. Who says they are even paying for offices, storage or personnel? I can setup a few phone numbers, get a website with exclusive pictures and make it look exactly like a working company with many employees. They are still accepting and taking pre-orders, why would they want their source of income to just stop? The people receiving that pre-order money could be on an island somewhere not even close to the US.

[NEO2012]

Assuming:

1) The BFL Minirig ships
2) Network hash rate stays under 500Th/s
3) Bitcoin price remains stable
4) Actual performance of the minirig is close to expeted performance

Then, it seems to me that having a Minirig is basically having a license to print Bitcoins. It would pay for itself after a few short months, and by the time a year has passed you have thousands of extra coins. Maybe even 10,000BTC?

Is this right, or is my math off?

YEAH SEAMS LIKE

WHEN U CONSIDER  THAT 1000TH IS PRSOLD ALREADY

WITCH WILL PUT U IN THE 2 BTC A DAY BRAKET 

UNTILL SLOWLYYY NETWORK ACHES UP

[enocog]

So I haven't seen anyone discus this angle, sorry if someone has. BFL has been accepting BTC for pre-orders so if you pre ordered a single in the summer months of 2012 it would be around 260 BTC as the value was around 5 to 14 USD last summer. That means that you just lost around $9,090 USD if you gave them your BTC when it was worth 5 USD and Today it's worth around 40 USD. Right, am I missing something here?

[NEO2012]

So I haven't seen anyone discus this angle, sorry if someone has. BFL has been accepting BTC for pre-orders so if you pre ordered a single in the summer months of 2012 it would be around 260 BTC as the value was around 5 to 14 USD last summer. That means that you just lost around $9,090 USD if you gave them your BTC when it was worth 5 USD and Today it's worth around 40 USD. Right, am I missing something here?

yeah  btc is like 45 now

and hit 50 the other day:)

yeah u urdered half a sc with a  half a minirig price

u the dude who urderes  a  a 30k unit today might get it before u

u dont think they gonna hold back a 30k costumer couse of a single bord? like urs for example?


duble jammy wammy oh yeah

bfl rules

[creativex]

So I haven't seen anyone discus this angle, sorry if someone has. BFL has been accepting BTC for pre-orders so if you pre ordered a single in the summer months of 2012 it would be around 260 BTC as the value was around 5 to 14 USD last summer. That means that you just lost around $9,090 USD if you gave them your BTC when it was worth 5 USD and Today it's worth around 40 USD. Right, am I missing something here?

The only thing you're missing is the dozens of times it's been discussed previously. Yes, unfortunately some people did pay BFL with BTC in June of 2012 and yes they've been royally screwed by doing so. In all fairness paying BTCFPGA in BTC for an ASIC last October has not worked out really well for me either.

[NEO2012]

Assuming:

1) The BFL Minirig ships
2) Network hash rate stays under 500Th/s
3) Bitcoin price remains stable
4) Actual performance of the minirig is close to expeted performance

Then, it seems to me that having a Minirig is basically having a license to print Bitcoins. It would pay for itself after a few short months, and by the time a year has passed you have thousands of extra coins. Maybe even 10,000BTC?

Is this right, or is my math off?

seems like it

They say in the California gold rush, most miners never made enough to recoup their investment.
The only people assured of profits were the ones selling tools to the miners.