[Poll] Where are we in the Investor's Emotion Cycle?

[molecular]

There is something that has never been discussed in a speculation thread:

The large number of businesses dealing with bitcoin, making miners, hard wallets, tablets etc, large pools like deepbit that doesn't make a lot of money on mining anymore have a lot of BTC or are dependent of the price not crashing.

If you have hundreds of thousands or even more $$ invested in some business, you  would try to make an agreement with other players to not let the price drop too far either agreeing on a minimum buy back price or promising not to take out profits dispropotionate to the market cap.

If the current "big Bitcoin business world" were all cut throat, trying to undercut each other on the exchanges, there would be carnage, not a good environment for building an economy.

So there must exist some kind of gentleman agreement at least, otherwise there would be more sense in a coordinated pump and dump as a business model.

that of course implies that we have a silent Bitcoin elite playing the role of the FED?

There's just one problem with this cartel-like structure you're hypthesizing about: it wouldn't work. Picture the temptation for one of the "members" to break the holy rule and sell below the set price (assuming market dropped below the set price because of some bears selling or something)... it would be huge. Miners need to sell at some point (maybe not so much with asics, investment already made, power cost not such a huge factor yet).

[Luno]

I understand your argument but why isn't it happning now then? Do every big Bitcoin business have a guy employed with the finger hovering over the button ready to liquidate all BTC assets if the buy side suddently shrinks?

These people are Bitcoin idealists also and take a great responsibility in making Bitcoin work and some of them know each other and talk about how the Bitcoin future will be.

So my post was not about some sinister conspiracy, just that early adopters or people with a lot invested proffesionally have a great motivation not to see a second crash.

You can also consider this in another way: If there is no gentlemens agreement, it would be double risk to keep liquidity in Bitcoin at the same time you are building a business that depends on bitcoin. You would loose both your market and your holdings if there is a large correction. So if an ASIC producer like NZG or BFL have any sense they will raise the capital in Dollars or Huan outside the Bitcoin economy.

That will have the same effect as if they were agreeing on not undercutting each other, as the investors backing them understands the risk of exchange rate fluctuations and must be willing to throw in more $$ if needed maybe even buying Bitcoins directly.

So the Gox exchange rate is pehaps misleading as there must be a hidden backing to Bitcoin that's not visible in the orderbook Both in Dollars or Bitcoin.

I requested some inputs a few days ago on the value of the main BTC businesses. Of course they don't have to tell, but by the time they file they tax returns, they should be able to supply some key figures so we all can get a sense of this larger part of the economy.

[TraderTimm]

The "one big manipulator" theory is akin to "Godwin's Law" for internet arguments, it always shows up in any bitcoin trading discussion.

Move along, nothing to see here...

[piramida]

Have you considered that big businesses built around bitcoin are built by people who believe in the idea? Not pure idealists, of course they want to profit from it - but they see the potential, and strongly believed in it way before the herd, invested their time and money in it, built a product which existence depends solely on bitcoins prosperity.

Now, why would those people SELL ALL suddenly to gain some measly dollars? I can only see one reason, if they suddenly become insane. For such occasions, free market is enough to handle the dump, no special agreements needed.

There are legitimate reasons - if for example they need to dump a significant amount of BTC to purchase, say, a private jet or something similarly stupid which is only sold in fiat world, there are quite a few ways to trade these coins without hitting an exchange, therefore without affecting the price.

[fcmatt]

Please explain why you are using all this oldschool stockmarket memes in bitcoin forum?
Is bitcoin the wallstreet or something - i really do not think so!

Based on what i see it tries its hardest to be wall street. Imitation of it bigtime in so many ways.

[Luno]

Have you considered that big businesses built around bitcoin are built by people who believe in the idea? Not pure idealists, of course they want to profit from it - but they see the potential, and strongly believed in it way before the herd, invested their time and money in it, built a product which existence depends solely on bitcoins prosperity.

Now, why would those people SELL ALL suddenly to gain some measly dollars? I can only see one reason, if they suddenly become insane. For such occasions, free market is enough to handle the dump, no special agreements needed.

Yes i do, that's why I wrote two whole paragraphs about it in my previous post!!!!!!
qoute:
"These people are Bitcoin idealists also and take a great responsibility in making Bitcoin work and some of them know each other and talk about how the Bitcoin future will be.

So my post was not about some sinister conspiracy, just that early adopters or people with a lot invested proffesionally have a great motivation not to see a second crash."

This is a speculation thread, not a conspiracy thread, so my point in this "$30 resistance topic" we are discussing, is that there are more factors supporting the price level that are not apparent from the order book a factor any good trader should survey!
 
And specific to you Piramya, you actually agree with my arguments, though you claim you are not. You are right that it would be crazy to "just sell" but it is a factor a business has to consider, you don't know everybody that well.

So if someone of the old guys suddently want's to buy a lear jet, wouldn't he ask if there were some peers willing to absorb his sell to protect Bitcoin? AKA a benign dark pool?

Holding 100-300k Bitcoins make you a bank, if you wan't it or not. Naturally if someone wants to sell a large amount they ask around if anyone are interested in absorbing it.

Come on guys- This is not a "one big manipulater" argumentation on my behalf, it's simply an attempt to measure the not so obvious value of the backing to the current price.

[Qoheleth]

I just don't think the market is sustainable right now.  The difference between a few weeks ago and now (for me anyways) is that I am completely out of the market now (I was daytrading/swingtrading up until the mini crash/recovery last week).  The fact that we have moved this high this quickly coupled with the unrelenting optimism scares me, and I really believe the price could tank at any given moment...which is why I am staying in USD until I see something in the market that changes my mind.

That's fair.

I think a correction is coming. We've climbed very far very fast, with very little serious testing of our gains, and the only corresponding news seems to have been Reddit's adoption of Bitcoin as a fiat payment processor, and that one Bloomberg Chart of the Day article back in late January. But I have trouble getting a sense of when - there's a part of me that has become convinced we'll break the 2011 highs before the wind changes, but there's another part of me that doubts we'll even break $30.

Guess all I can do is wait and see, and trust my system to ride the waves with some measure of efficiency.

[molecular]

I just don't think the market is sustainable right now.  The difference between a few weeks ago and now (for me anyways) is that I am completely out of the market now (I was daytrading/swingtrading up until the mini crash/recovery last week).  The fact that we have moved this high this quickly coupled with the unrelenting optimism scares me, and I really believe the price could tank at any given moment...which is why I am staying in USD until I see something in the market that changes my mind.

That's fair.

I think a correction is coming. We've climbed very far very fast, with very little serious testing of our gains, and the only corresponding news seems to have been Reddit's adoption of Bitcoin as a fiat payment processor, and that one Bloomberg Chart of the Day article back in late January. But I have trouble getting a sense of when - there's a part of me that has become convinced we'll break the 2011 highs before the wind changes, but there's another part of me that doubts we'll even break $30.

Guess all I can do is wait and see, and trust my system to ride the waves with some measure of efficiency.

i will be marked a hopeless delusional bull, but i think we'll go to 50 or even 75 before a sizeable correction and serious test of support happens.

[oakpacific]

We are waiting for the $32' ers to sell at a loss before we move up. This is also completely consistent with my opinion on my hunch.

shouldn't take long:

Code:

mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 31.0;
-[ RECORD 1 ]----------------
cnt | 1544
btc | 13714.94400000
usd | 429606.3764527000000000

only 13K BTC were ever traded above $31.

EDIT for those interested:

Code:

mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 29.80;
-[ RECORD 1 ]-----------------
cnt | 5090
btc | 55666.28300000
usd | 1702948.0715991000000000

56K BTC have changed hands for a price above $29.80 (on mtGox).

A bit off-topic, could you tell me the name of the shell you are using? Thanks.

[piramida]

So if someone of the old guys suddently want's to buy a lear jet, wouldn't he ask if there were some peers willing to absorb his sell to protect Bitcoin? AKA a benign dark pool?

Basically you are asking if there are any deals done without going to the market? Then the answer is yes, definitely. If you want to buy 1 million worth of bitcoins you don't transfer that to mtgox - I don't think they would even allow you to - you would talk to trusted people and they find you a seller. There's no conspiracy, it is the way things are in unregulated markets.

[cdb000]

My heart tells me to hold, maybe even buy - there is no particular theoretical limit to the value of the Bitcoin - it might just keep going up. And up. And up. Euphoric.

By brain tells me that nothing goes up forever. The real world just doesn't do that. The wall at 30 fell, so some more upside is likely before any correction. Optimistic.

My gut tells me that I should unload a few coins just before the next correction and wants my brain to figure out when that correction will come. Excited.

My wife tells me to stop worrying about it and simply hold my coins long term (which is what she is doing with her coins) Sensible.

[gimme_bottles]

We are waiting for the $32' ers to sell at a loss before we move up. This is also completely consistent with my opinion on my hunch.

shouldn't take long:

Code:

mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 31.0;
-[ RECORD 1 ]----------------
cnt | 1544
btc | 13714.94400000
usd | 429606.3764527000000000

only 13K BTC were ever traded above $31.

EDIT for those interested:

Code:

mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 29.80;
-[ RECORD 1 ]-----------------
cnt | 5090
btc | 55666.28300000
usd | 1702948.0715991000000000

56K BTC have changed hands for a price above $29.80 (on mtGox).

A bit off-topic, could you tell me the name of the shell you are using? Thanks.

looks like SQL using a database containing all trades ever executed on mtgox. but i would also be interested in where to get such a database

[oakpacific]

We are waiting for the $32' ers to sell at a loss before we move up. This is also completely consistent with my opinion on my hunch.

shouldn't take long:

Code:

mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 31.0;
-[ RECORD 1 ]----------------
cnt | 1544
btc | 13714.94400000
usd | 429606.3764527000000000

only 13K BTC were ever traded above $31.

EDIT for those interested:

Code:

mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 29.80;
-[ RECORD 1 ]-----------------
cnt | 5090
btc | 55666.28300000
usd | 1702948.0715991000000000

56K BTC have changed hands for a price above $29.80 (on mtGox).

A bit off-topic, could you tell me the name of the shell you are using? Thanks.

looks like SQL using a database containing all trades ever executed on mtgox. but i would also be interested in where to get such a database

Yup, I think the same.

[sounds]

If nobody turns up offering a MtGox/BitStamp/BTC-E database, I think we should build one. Would anyone like to contribute?

It wouldn't help with data before we start capturing, but it could be useful in the future...

[molecular]

We are waiting for the $32' ers to sell at a loss before we move up. This is also completely consistent with my opinion on my hunch.

shouldn't take long:

Code:

mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 31.0;
-[ RECORD 1 ]----------------
cnt | 1544
btc | 13714.94400000
usd | 429606.3764527000000000

only 13K BTC were ever traded above $31.

EDIT for those interested:

Code:

mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 29.80;
-[ RECORD 1 ]-----------------
cnt | 5090
btc | 55666.28300000
usd | 1702948.0715991000000000

56K BTC have changed hands for a price above $29.80 (on mtGox).

A bit off-topic, could you tell me the name of the shell you are using? Thanks.

psql (postgres database client). can give more info when on real computer if you like. phone now

[gimme_bottles]

psql (postgres database client). can give more info when on real computer if you like. phone now

i would appreciate it a lot 

[cbeast]

You might want to add raging chainsaw mania to the list.

[molecular]

psql (postgres database client). can give more info when on real computer if you like. phone now

i would appreciate it a lot 

Due to popular demand and also maybe to lure some beginners into the world of sql:

[BEGINNER WORKSHOP]: bitcoincharts + postgres = cool sql queries

[Spekulatius]

Thats what it looked like today before I reset the Poll. It depicts the situation in mids of February 2013.


Lets see what people think now:

POLL RESET!

[Spekulatius]

Poll reset!