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July 05, 2016, 08:31:03 AM
Last edit: July 05, 2016, 08:42:48 AM by Shiver |
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I think price will climb nicely even without a halving, then all the 'halvers' will attribute it to that and say 'see? told you so' (correlation != causality and all that).
If you look at any fairly popular exchange daily trade volume and compare that to a halving from 3600 to 1800 it makes it look like back page news. There are some very powerful drivers to see BTC go up by a heck of a lot when the time is right, but halving is just dust in comparison.
We might see a pattern similar to last time (in the 'fractal similarity' sense), but first time around that could just as easily have been people waiting to see if something was broken in the protocol, then a party after it remained solid. This time we might see a similar pattern, but nothing to do with halving, yet people will see a pattern there and perhaps get burnt in 4 years time depending on the state of the market in 2020.
There are several technologies under development such as 'Lightning & 'Thunder' which could group transactions together as one to send to the blockchain without the bloat that could make the blocksize debate moot, as well as improving speed, capacity, smart contracts etc that sit as a protocol layer on top of Bitcoin, not usurp it. That would help the miners in that their income stream would shift from coin creation as the goal, to processing many transactions to still get healthy fees to make it worth their while.
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