Steem vs Synereo, which one will lead the decentralized social media revolution?

[iamnotback]

You are wasting your time making a group to vote for each other. You can at most get 7.5% of your SP (Steam Power) holdings back as rewards+payouts (on average) per year.

The rep power of your group is limited to your aggregate SP holdings. So even if you vote for each other in a perfect way (and this is complex to explain how to do due to numerous factors), then you will not on average get more than 7.5% per annum ROI. Of course not counting up or down votes you might get from others.

And holding SP has a huge risk, because you can't cash it out except over a 2 year period. Thus you risk losing all your SP in a declining price spiral.

this anouncement that they got hacked is gonna steem down the price fast...red dildos to come ))

The downward price will remind those who converted to SP, that they need 2 years to remove their investment. 

Those who invest and don't convert to SP, are losing 0.19% per day due to debasement.

The problem with Steemit is they have no income model, thus once the price is not going up, there is no valuation where it has an P/E ratio. And the system is designed to incentivize cashing out. I just don't see where the buying demand will come from except for a bubble while the price is moving up fast. There is no incentive to HODL this token.

If one is holding SP, you are I suppose betting that Steemit will manage some transition either to be acquired by another social network at some valuation per signed up user, or that Steemit will be able to develop an income model. We've seen that estimates of revenue per user from advertising for Facebook average around $15 per user per year.

So with a million signed up users, this will be $15 million annual income from advertising, so with a 20 P/E ratio then roughly a $300 million market cap (7.5% x $300m = $15 million divided by million users = $15 per user per year in payouts+curator rewards). At 3000 signups per day, they project a million signups (costing $10 per signup at least not including payouts) within 4 months.

But it is also not clear what the retention rate is given users on average won't earn that much from the site, and especially after the number of bloggers reach million users with only a $300 million market cap. In other words, at some realistic P/E ratio, then the payouts have to drop dramatically which means the usership might not be sticky, which then means the market cap valuation must be lower. And that begins the downward spiral because as market cap falls, then payouts fall, so usership should fall. Circling the toilet bowl all the way down.

Does anyone see any way this outcome can be averted? The math seems to show there is no way this can work out.

I am not an early adopter actually. I just started using Steemit 6 days ago: https://steemit.com/@coinhoarder

I don't care if people buy Steem or not. In fact, I suggest that you don't.... I sure didn't buy any STEEM.

I made posts and upvoted posts to earn what I have in my account, and I suggest you guys do the same too. It is easy money... I made about $115 so far.

So $20 per day incentivizes you to spend some of your time on that site. How many minutes a day you spend to earn that $20? (Readers note that he is a college student)

Will you stay when that drops to $20 per year per my calculations above?

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[iamnotback]

Is steem.it really profitable to Bloggers?  

From what i have seen so far, yes it is. Buying steem power tho could end up being a terrible idea, even more so if steem team has a fat steem stash that they could sell while you are left holding the bag with your steem power locked monies.

They are adding 3000 signups per day. These new bloggers dilute the available money for payout which is roughly 3.875% of the marketcap per year (actually less than that, was $2 million total recently). This 3.875% is shared amongst all bloggers, so as the number of bloggers increases, if the market cap doesn't increase proportionally, then the payouts decrease.

Also the payouts are mathematically structured such that the most popular get quadratically more payouts than the average ones. So there are some blog posts with $100s of payouts, but the average is only a few dollars each (many only $0 or pennies per blog). And these payouts will decline per the math I showed.

Eventually there will be many pissed off SP investors (who can't sell while the price is crashing) and many pissed off bloggers who don't earn what they expected to earn.

It is not suprising that 3000 bloggers per day are rushing to signup to get their free $10 of STEEM. Because blogging is not a very profitable job any more in the general case (posting photos yourself and your vacation, nobody gives a fuck to pay for that). So by showing these $100s payouts for the few most popular blog posts, Steemit is creating a false expectation of hype that blogging has suddenly become an easy profitable endeavor. This has implosion of the fantasy written all over its future.

Dan is going to destroy the image of crypto-currency is the minds of bloggers. Their first exposure to CC will be being sucked into a lie.

[americanpegasus]

Is steem.it really profitable to Bloggers?  

From what i have seen so far, yes it is. Buying steem power tho could end up being a terrible idea, even more so if steem team has a fat steem stash that they could sell while you are left holding the bag with your steem power locked monies.

They are adding 3000 signups per day. These new bloggers dilute the available money for payout which is roughly 3.875% of the marketcap per year (actually less than that, was $2 million total recently). This 3.875% is shared amongst all bloggers, so as the number of bloggers increases, if the market cap doesn't increase proportionally, then the payouts decrease.

Also the payouts are mathematically structured such that the most popular get quadratically more payouts than the average ones. So there are some blog posts with $100s of payouts, but the average is only a few dollars each (many only $0 or pennies per blog). And these payouts will decline per the math I showed.

Eventually there will be many pissed off SP investors (who can't sell while the price is crashing) and many pissed off bloggers who don't earn what they expected to earn.

It is not suprising that 3000 bloggers per day are rushing to signup to get their free $10 of STEEM. Because blogging is not a very profitable job any more in the general case (posting photos yourself and your vacation, nobody gives a fuck to pay for that). So by showing these $100s payouts for the few most popular blog posts, Steemit is creating a false expectation of hype that blogging has suddenly become an easy profitable endeavor. This has implosion of the fantasy written all over its future.

Dan is going to destroy the image of crypto-currency is the minds of bloggers. Their first exposure to CC will be being sucked into a lie.

Hey Shelby, I hear you.  You aren't just yelling at a deaf room.  It is likely that Steem is not sustainable in the long term without a massive revenue injection by advertisers, and they will have to figure out a way that advertisers can buy ads solely with their token.  That will be the only way to maintain this momentum.

[Dahhi]

I would choose Steem, I have never heard of Synero before. Although Steem seems to have some issues at present, almost all altcoins do sooner or later.

[DecentralizeEconomics]

I would choose Steem, I have never heard of Synero before. Although Steem seems to have some issues at present, almost all altcoins do sooner or later.

Synereo is actually a decentralized social networking platform.  Steem is just the Larimer's latest centralized scam.

[Divinespark]

Steem is an interesting project with several major flaws. We will have to wait and see. From what I have heard and read about the Synero project, it is more clearly decentralised from the outset.

[generalizethis]

Steemit has the head start, but can they execute the innovation?

https://steemit.com/steemit/@generalizethis/the-case-for-market-sustainability

*I'll gladly plug sysnero when they offer similar production tools.

[From Above]

I have heard the rumors that the Monero officially endorses STEEM.

So I would say its a pretty safe bet to say that STEEM will be is pumped hard and the Synereo not.

~CfA~

[Ethertrader1]

I am not sure how Steem even uses the word decentralised. I think it look interesting, but not decentralized. Please let me know how I am wrong.

[Cast12]

Apparently not steem. Seems like Steem is a pyramid scheme. But either way, I'd vote for Synereo

[matt608]

Voting or Synereo, excited to see their alpha product in September!

[DecentralizeEconomics]

Voting or Synereo, excited to see their alpha product in September!

It's funny to see a lot of the guys which were smart enough to get involved in NXT in the beginning are also getting involved in Synereo.

[generalizethis]

Voting or Synereo, excited to see their alpha product in September!

It's funny to see a lot of the guys which were smart enough to get involved in NXT in the beginning are also getting involved in Synereo.

September--can't wait....

[iamnotback]

I've been thinking more about advertising and its impact on these concepts for decentralized social networks.

Remember I had originally criticized Synereo some months ago, because I noted that the average revenue per user for social networks that generate revenue from advertising is approximately $20 per year on average (much less in 3rd world countries).

That hardly seems like a worthwhile income for content producers, although I guess per the power-law distribution of income/wealth it gets 85% concentrated to say the top 20% of content producers and roughly 38% to the top 1%. Thus, mathematically that $20 per user in site-wide revenue, is $85 and $760 per year for each user among the top 20% and 1% (respectively) of the users on the site (and $4 per year for the rest of the users). And that still seems far too low.  (sample calculation is 85 × $20 ÷ 20 = $85)

Synereo's monetization model is to have advertisers pay curators to employ their REP power to push ads onto viewers (which may cost the curators some REP power if the ad is not well targeted and received). Whereas, Steem's monetization model is to attempt to ramp up demand for STEEM for microtransactions (transfers, not voting transactions) and debase those STEEM to pay content producers, i.e. effectively (a combination of some debasement on everyone and) transaction fees will pay for content production long-term.

The key insight I want to add now is that content producers can also avail directly of advertising revenue by embedding ads in their content and especially when these ads are inconspicuous links and mentions. Although they might be paid for the display (e.g. CPM tracked ads), they might more likely be paid by a referrals such as pay-per-click and/or pay-per-conversion (sale). So it seems to me that advertising can be earned directly by the content producers who develop a following in both Synereo and Steem, but the Steem model adds another potential revenue source. This is important because the demand for the Synereo AMPs is only to come from demand for advertising, which might be largely cannibalized by the content producers selling direct to the advertisers thus bypassing the AMP token. In Steem, the token's demand is planned to come from demand for the microtransaction ecosystem (although this isn't even developed at all yet and Steem has other critical problems to solve first).

However, I still see advertising revenue as a small priority for content producers (refer to the math above), unless they are a superstar that gets branding advertising from a major corporation (e.g. Nike). Rather I think they will generate more income from selling paraphernalia to their audiences where they take a large percentage of the sale, e.g. T-shirt sales.

I still see more value from the social networks from commerce than from advertising.

[iamnotback]

How the father of the internet plans to reclaim it from Facebook and Google

Synereo, Diaspora, and other decentralized social networks appear to be architecturally similar to TBL's Solid concept.

Synereo uses some form of node-to-node process calculi model which is afaik eventually consistent; whereas, a blockchain provides deterministic global consistency. Note however, I have been working on an improvement to Satoshi's design which allows for some indeterminism in the timing of global consistency from the standpoint of validation, which was very important for fixing the scaling problem while retaining decentralization that for example Steem's (Graphene) DPoS forsakes.

The advantage of the blockchain model is that there is a global consistency that is immutable and provides certain  guarantees. The Solid model is only locally consistent and eventually globally consistency with probabilistic outcomes. The latter is more resilient to censorship and centralized attack.

That is my comment quoted.

[raphma]

I liked the steem concept, but it was poorly implemented.. so i'm with synereo now.

[TrueAnon]

Synereo fo'sho me thinks.

Also MEWN

[iamnotback]

So I just became aware of this concept of token-powered decentralized social networks tonight and am doing some research.  I see two main contenders: Synereo and Steem.  When all factors are considered: fairness to content creators, ease of use for lurkers, fairness of mining... which one do you think will win the impending war of decentralized social media?

I think the question is impossible to answer because nothing that is out there now, even in terms of comprehensible plans that are vaporware, has a feature set or model that could become very popular. Well at least as far as I can see thus far (but I am not omniscient).

I did some initial analysis of Steem (read the entire thread).

Synereo reality check (read the linked threads):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1424386.msg14420001#msg14420001
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1344997.msg13713923#msg13713923
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1361721.msg13868758#msg13868758

Well, well, well, TPTB_need_war and iamnotback have been vindicated!

so, all this mess was because of Greg? the roadmap history(impossible to complete) was just fud?
the develop still going on right? i think i'll buy some cheap amp's now.

Yes, Greg left Synereo, broke his promises to everyone, and is now throwing a little bitch fit, but he can't do anything.  Everybody wants the son of a bitch gone.  Greg and his code are a joke.  Synereo is hiring developers who can actually produce working code and not "vaporware".  Development and deployment of the decentralized social network has now been accelerated.  Nothing can stop us now.