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Author Topic: Stages of Growth in the Bitcoin Economy  (Read 3234 times)
kiba
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October 21, 2010, 12:05:33 AM
 #21

Are you getting these "stages" from somewhere reasonably official, like an economist or something, or are you making them up?  'Cause I'm not an economist either, but I don't think stages are best concept to approach currency adoption with.

The only thing that really matters when increasing the spread of bitcoins is increasing the things you can get for them.  When you can buy something tangible with bitcoins in an easier manner than any other means, bitcoins, for you, have value.

Currency exchanges are a important and useful element, as they tie bitcoins into other measures of worth.  Everyone likes money.  That'll only get you so far though, because other than laundering money, there's no reason to exchange cash for bitcoins for cash.  A market where everyone's an investor can't be much more than a hobby.  Seeing as this is what 80% of the Marketplace chatter is about (with another 15% being casinos), I feel this niche is pretty well saturated.

However, services which only accept bitcoins are where value really comes from.  It expands the economy coming and going: the people who use them need to have gotten bitcoins somehow, and people who receive the bitcoins need to spend them somehow.  This kind of service could be standard internet sites which consciously choose to only accept bitcoins (as my site does), or it could be the only real option for certain commerce markets (like Freenet), owing to bitcoins' security and anonymity.

In any case, before this turns into a real ramble, I don't see any "stages" anywhere.  Just continual growth, or lack thereof, in small or large amounts, with a critical mass somewhere in the hopeful future.


No, no, no. We're just trying to describe and predict the growth of the bitcoin economy.

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October 21, 2010, 05:53:30 PM
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Oh, okay.  Well, don't prognosticate too wildly.  You'll go blind that way.

In all practicality, bitcoin will forever remain small fry until a) drug lords/enron ceos find a scheme to launder money through it or b) via the vagaries of the internet, some random bitcoin application attains chatroulette-level popularity.  Where it goes from there can be anyone's guess.
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October 21, 2010, 06:25:15 PM
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Oh, okay.  Well, don't prognosticate too wildly.  You'll go blind that way.

In all practicality, bitcoin will forever remain small fry until a) drug lords/enron ceos find a scheme to launder money through it or b) via the vagaries of the internet, some random bitcoin application attains chatroulette-level popularity.  Where it goes from there can be anyone's guess.

Maybe, maybe not.  Even if Bitcoin remains a "small fry" in the world of online commerce, that's still a pretty big fry.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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