Where are all the bitcoins?

[xavier]

According to this page, there are about 11m bitcoins issued in total.

http://blockexplorer.com/q/totalbc

Less than 0.1m are traded daily on Gox

According to Bitcoincharts, Gox has 70% market share of trading. So reasonable to assume that no more than 0.2m are traded daily. That's about 2%, and that would seem to be a generous estimate.

Just wondering, where are the other 98%? I'm guessing its a cross between coins just held for savings and coins being spent in the 'economy'. The only question is, what if somebody is holding all these coins and then dumps a huge amt onto the market? That's gonna have a big price impact.

Cheers,

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

[1713892041]

1713892041

[giantdragon]

I think many Bitcoin users hope that Bitcoin price will go up significantly and don't want to sell them for current price (it is about me also  ).

[knight22]

Keep that secret: I keep them all in my pocket! 

[knight22]

Keep in mind that bitcoin is international.  mtgox is not the only exchange and definetly not the only way to acquire bitcoins.

[ajk]

i think its safe to say that the majority of bitcoin is probably held by the strongest hands,

I dont think these guys are looking to dump anytime soon considering the leaders of bitcoin (whom i would believe at this time would be DPR of SR, MTGox, Satoshidice, and maybe a few other high end payment processors like bitpay)

considering that these guys are doing everything that they can in order to see a future in bitcoin I highly doubt anyone with a substantial amount of coins, (excess of 20-40K Bitcoin) is probably not going to dump that all at once considering this would be a ridiculously stupid play

if your praying to see 10 dollar coins again I doubt that it is going to happen this year if not forever? (not impossible to see 10 just at this point extremely unlikely)

I think that once the price stays about 30 for another month or so people will begin to accept the fact that this is the new price and more and more bigger players will buy at the current price considering that only big players will be able to afford it,

already we;ve seen 250,000 USD and 600,000 USD being dropped into the market and has not moved it, i said this before but this should instill investor confidence that this is in fact a big rally and not a bubble like every bear seems to think

[Stephen Gornick]

what if somebody is holding all these coins and then dumps a huge amt onto the market? That's gonna have a big price impact.

You are correct.

They aren't selling a whole lot on the way up.  And they probably aren't planning on holding if it starts heading the other direction.  A lot of people have the exact same intention ... ride it up, then get out when it turns.

I doubt the exist doors are wide enough for everyone.

So, what to do?

There's a saying that goes something to the effect of, "nobody has ever gone broke taking a profit".

[ajk]

also not to mention that these guys were in business during the time bitcoin was the most unusable currency

consider since theyve seen the worst of the worst what we are seeing now to them is probably the best of the best,

definitely not the same as we were 1 year ago considering we are seeing such huge volume, remember that we arent at 2 dollars anymore and 100,000 trades is not equal, even 10,000 trades at current price destroys the highest volume we've seen last year,

I had deep thought about this today and A lot seem to think that bitcoin MUST go mainstream for it to succeed when it is in fact the entire opposite,

We've already made it this far without the public eye at this point if it does go mainstream its only an added bonus to bitcoin..

Bitcoin can still live even if it is only the rich who has it (matter of fact Id rather bitcoin only been in rich peoples hands)

[wachtwoord]

So 2% of the complete currency is being traded on forex exchanges daily. Isn't that more than with fiat currencies?

[RodeoX]

It also seems hard to know how much is being spent. The link below displays real-time movements of BTC. If I bought my neighbors lawnmower, would there be a record other than this?

http://bitcoinmonitor.com/

[ajk]

what if somebody is holding all these coins and then dumps a huge amt onto the market? That's gonna have a big price impact.

You are correct.

They aren't selling a whole lot on the way up.  And they probably aren't planning on holding if it starts heading the other direction.  A lot of people have the exact same intention ... ride it up, then get out when it turns.

I doubt the exist doors are wide enough for everyone.

So, what to do?

There's a saying that goes something to the effect of, "nobody has ever gone broke taking a profit".

Honestly I dont see it happening. what makes you think that good investors havent already hedged their initial investment and are riding out the rest as pure profit? I know im not the only investor to have done this,

everyting at this point to me and im sure alot of other people is just gravy, i think that since the coins are in such powerful hands (those who already have a crap ton of money) are smarter than that, why would someone dump all their coins unless it was past examples of what we've seen with people who are not investors dumping all their coins at once?

dumping all you had would be retarded considering we are in such an uptrend,

You realize when someone is holidng 40k Coins when it goes up 1 dollar they make 40k? if they have fiat and not bitcoin during the uptrend then you are stuck exactly where you are with just your money

[shkiser]

I spend my bitcoins as soon as I get them, and Im constantly turning a profit on them. I sell a real life product for bitcoins, invest those bitcoins in additional real life products, which I sell for a profit, and turn that profit into bitcoins, which I continue to buy real life products.. Does this make sense? Is there any better way to do this? Should I just hold onto my bitcoins and watch their value grow, or keep investing into a product I turn to cash, and buying more bitcoins..? One things for sure I have seen my USD grow, but Im getting a lot less btc for those USD now..

[ajk]

I spend my bitcoins as soon as I get them, and Im constantly turning a profit on them. I sell a real life product for bitcoins, invest those bitcoins in additional real life products, which I sell for a profit, and turn that profit into bitcoins, which I continue to buy real life products.. Does this make sense? Is there any better way to do this? Should I just hold onto my bitcoins and watch their value grow, or keep investing into a product I turn to cash, and buying more bitcoins..? One things for sure I have seen my USD grow, but Im getting a lot less btc for those USD now..

At this current time I have no good advice whether to buy or sell, I am not going to say the price is high because obviously its not people are still buying and the price is still above 30 even after 2 gargantuan dumps,

its going to take more time to say whether or not its good to buy an hold now considering that in order to double your money it would have to leap from 34 to 68,

those who are crying definitely missed out on the amazing buying opportunities which was last year and pretty much anytime up until this point and time you would have profited,

only time will really tell what bitcoin is going to do but if it follows the trend it has, Tuesdays should be a nice green candle,

[Stephen Gornick]

or keep investing into a product I turn to cash, and buying more bitcoins..? One things for sure I have seen my USD grow, but Im getting a lot less btc for those USD now..

You have no control over the direction of the bitcoin exchange rate.   If it stops rising (like it did for many months until June 2012) or heads the other direction, you not only don't earn anything you lose value.  

Some traders are good (or lucky) at determining a move up or down and can profit by actively trading it and making money when it goes their way, but everyone else holding coins sees declining purchasing power when the rally ends.

So,if you have an approach that consistently generates profits, that is much more valuable than seeking speculative gains that you have no control over.  You might find excess USD profits make a good way to add to a BTC position.  But remember that revenue and profit-generating ventures aren't always possible to build or find so if speculating on bitcoins comes at the expense of that venture, that might not be the wisest turn to make.

[notme]

or keep investing into a product I turn to cash, and buying more bitcoins..? One things for sure I have seen my USD grow, but Im getting a lot less btc for those USD now..

You have no control over the direction of the bitcoin exchange rate.   If it stops rising (like it did for many months until June 2012) or heads the other direction, you not only don't earn anything you lose value.  

Some traders are good (or lucky) at determining a move up or down and can profit by actively trading it and making money when it goes their way, but everyone else holding coins sees declining purchasing power when the rally ends.

So,if you have an approach that consistently generates profits, that is much more valuable than seeking speculative gains that you have no control over.  You might find excess USD profits make a good way to add to a BTC position.  But remember that revenue and profit-generating ventures aren't always possible to build or find so if speculating on bitcoins comes at the expense of that venture, that might not be the wisest turn to make.

Great points.  I would only add that you can't know if you are good or just lucky until it turns out you were just lucky .

[shkiser]

As long as I can find the bitcoins to buy. Thats one of the largest problems so far, which I am working thru now.

[oakpacific]

1. People do trade in large sum, just not everyday.
2. Non-exchange bitcoin distributing organizations such as Bitinstant, Coinbase, Tangible Cryptography etc, are holding a large portion of it.
3. The early adopters have mostly cashed out http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address= , many of the remaining big holders got them at n-dollar range, I think at least they are not seeing the profit margin they want to see yet.

[piramida]

So 2% of the complete currency is being traded on forex exchanges daily. Isn't that more than with fiat currencies?

This. 2% is actually a large percentage to change hands daily. That means that 100% of all coins change hands in under two months. Yes, I know it's the same coins going there and back, but it does not matter, it *could be* new coins every time, what matters is that the market would be able to deal with it.

[zebedee]

I think that once the price stays about 30 for another month or so people will begin to accept the fact that this is the new price and more and more bigger players will buy at the current price considering that only big players will be able to afford it,

Huh?  One can always afford BTC.  One just gets less of them than one used to.

[rebuilder]

So 2% of the complete currency is being traded on forex exchanges daily. Isn't that more than with fiat currencies?

Forex volumes are very high. How high as a percentage of money supply depends on how you count.

http://goldseek.com/news/2009/1-12mh/11.png

If you compare money in circulation to day forex volume, you get a ratio somewhere in the region of 1:1. I'm sure that's quite inaccurate, but 2% traded daily doesn't appear to be all that much.

Of course, you might as whether the forex market with its HFT bots and complexities is really very sane to begin with.

[piramida]

but forex market does not trade actual printed money (unlike bitcoin market). they deal in imaginary debt money and there's much more than 4 trillion of those around - hundreds of trillions, even if you don't count various derivatives.