Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[S3052]

Thanks for the in-depth comments. I like the discussion.

Regarding MACD and RSI divergences, the view follows standard technical analysis practices: if price make new lows but MACD (or RSI) not, this is a divergence.

Of course, this is not the only tool and indicator. It may well be that prices do not "follow" the divergence. At the same time, as long as
i) prices do not make a new low and
ii) MACD and RSI do not break their trend of higher highs and lower lows
there is a good chance that bitcoin prices will move higher quite soon.

Even more more new low is allowed under this long term trend interpretation and lead to a massive upswing.

And, as the bitcoin prices are coiling into a very narrow range, the following break out or breakdown (alternate scenario) will be massive and many will not believe it.

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[S3052]

Here is a new analysis.
Short term: strong BUY rating.


http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html

You can also vote in the poll again. It is open.

[Hawkix]

Yeah. Strong bullish rally till .. ehm .. 3.97? Then, park at 3.65. 

That's what my crystal ball say. We will see.

[pent]

I have parsed block chain from 15 Jun 2011 till 9 Oct 2011. Why... why Berkeley DB is so fu**ing slow??? It took two weeks and still parsing because i want to get deeper data.

But.. intermediate graphs are here. So, I am about to compare exchange rate to daily transaction number and daily transaction volume.

The daily transaction number is the major bitcoin network activity and popularity marker. I didnt find any useful data in daily volume graph.





Well, I do not see any bullish trends here. Network is depressing (as i told you 5-6 page posts ago). I dont exclude that network activity will raise in near future, but now it is under depression.

ps. to be concluded >>>>

[S3052]

Your data is all correct.

However, bitcoin usd prices lead other data points: BTCUSD leads transactions and transaction volume.

And even if the bounce up will only be a small correction up from a longer term donwtrend, you are looking at an at least 38.2% retracement to 14.5 $. More standard is a 61.8% retracement which would equal to 21.2 $.

And again, bitcoin prices can make another low below 3.71 $ and would still have this big upside potential.

Everyone can decide for himself to wait before a breakout happens or already be in the market.

(

[Bigpiggy01]

Everyone can decide for himself to wait before a breakout happens or already be in the market.

+ 10

[Are-you-a-wizard?]

Sorry I really do not know much about this technical analysis lark, so please just answer the one question I care about...

How the hell can you predict that people are going to return to Bitcoin? The situation is that we have had a massive influx of people when Bitcoin was in the spotlight, and then they got bored when the price went back down and they all left.

With a "real world" market I can understand that there are trends that repeat, but in this case what you are basically saying is that you predict almost everybody that left Bitcoin for whatever reason will (very soon) decide that they believe in it again and will buy up tons of coins.

My non-technical analysis skills tell me that Bitcoin became a craze for a short while which led to the huge price rise, and just like yoyos, scooters, and pokemon cards, the non-technically analysed trend all these things followed is that the craze wont be hitting again any time soon.

[Technomage]

I do think that there will be a reversal at some point, but I'm still seeing a strong possibility of another plunge. This is the likely scenario, less likely but possible is a reversal from this point on.

Everyone is waiting for something to happen, we're seeing almost a long time record of low volumes today. Nothing happening. For a significant uptrend to form I think we must see the low of 3.7 hold for at least a week. My bet is that it won't hold and we will take a further deep plunge which will finally set a low price that will actually hold. After that we will see rally potential form and finally a reversal.

But who knows, I could be wrong and 3.7 holds, which could spark a reversal without further crashes.

[Technomage]

With a "real world" market I can understand that there are trends that repeat, but in this case what you are basically saying is that you predict almost everybody that left Bitcoin for whatever reason will (very soon) decide that they believe in it again and will buy up tons of coins.

My non-technical analysis skills tell me that Bitcoin became a craze for a short while which led to the huge price rise, and just like yoyos, scooters, and pokemon cards, the non-technically analysed trend all these things followed is that the craze wont be hitting again any time soon.

I'm sorry to say but I think your non-technical analysis skills are not very good. Thing is the $32 peak was a hype bubble fueled by tons of speculation. What we have been seeing now is people leaving who never really cared about Bitcoin in the first place. Which I think is actually good.

What is happening is a change of hands, the future rise of Bitcoin will be based less on speculation and hype but more on actual achievements. This will be a slow process that will take place during the next 12 months and the years to come but the fact is Bitcoin is getting more useful slowly but surely, merchant activity is growing, it's just a matter of time when Bitcoin finds a place in some significant markets and gets some attention based on real developments, not just potential.

So while this change of hands takes place we might see a further downtrend (or not), even a total crash (or not), but Bitcoin will certainly come back up as long as it is functional and legal. It's simply too useful for some purposes and it's just a matter of time when it is widespread in certain markets.

It's still a gamble though, it's not guaranteed that it'll stay reliable and legal. But odds are it will, and if it does, I can pretty much guarantee it'll see significant growth. The transaction counts we've been seeing so far, from the peak of 10k-15k transactions per day to the current average of 5500 transactions per day are going to be SMALL numbers when Bitcoin really takes off, and then the price will also be on another level.

And by taking off I mean finding its place in niche markets. We'll be talking about significantly higher transaction counts. Going mainstream is a big challenge and I'm not sure if Bitcoin can manage that, but it's okay if it doesn't. It can be very useful in certain niche markets and still be way bigger than it is now.

[fivebells]

...it's not guaranteed that it'll stay reliable and legal. But odds are it will, and if it does, I can pretty much guarantee it'll see significant growth.

How can you be so sure of that?  I am relatively optimistic in that regard, too, but how it's going to work is pretty murky to me.

[proudhon]

For a significant uptrend to form I think we must see the low of 3.7 hold for at least a week.

So far it seems that anytime the exchange rate stagnates in a relatively narrow range for a long period of time the best bet is that a significant downward movement will be next.  I have absolutely no confidence that 3.7 holding for at least a week will precede the formation of a significant uptrend.  But, hey, I think this project is over for all practical purposes anyway - it doesn't store value well and it's a poor currency.  I would love for things to be otherwise, but it's over guys.

[Are-you-a-wizard?]

For a significant uptrend to form I think we must see the low of 3.7 hold for at least a week.

So far it seems that anytime the exchange rate stagnates in a relatively narrow range for a long period of time the best bet is that a significant downward movement will be next.  I have absolutely no confidence that 3.7 holding for at least a week will precede the formation of a significant uptrend.  But, hey, I think this project is over for all practical purposes anyway - it doesn't store value well and it's a poor currency.  I would love for things to be otherwise, but it's over guys.

Agree 100% and I take everything Technomage says with a pinch of salt, it wasn't that long ago he was saying it wouldn't go below $9.

Seen it all before, the wave of fanatics that come in claiming it wont go below X price and then 1 month later they spew the same garbage at a lower price. Frankly I think they are worse than the pessimists.

[Technomage]

So far it seems that anytime the exchange rate stagnates in a relatively narrow range for a long period of time the best bet is that a significant downward movement will be next.

Actually, no. The 4.18 low held for a fairly long time and we saw multiple rallies during that time. Those rallies didn't have enough strength to be trend changers however and that's the main reason why we went down further. But the lower we go, less is needed to cause a significant rally percentage-wise. I do think a further drop is possible, even likely, but we're getting closer and closer to a real reversal.

But, hey, I think this project is over for all practical purposes anyway - it doesn't store value well and it's a poor currency.  I would love for things to be otherwise, but it's over guys.

I don't even think it has started yet. The store of value capabilities of Bitcoin don't matter much yet because it's so small of a market with massive speculation. This situation will likely be much better in the future. The same goes for its uses as a medium of exchange. Bitcoin is actually very far from over, it's not over as long as the core functionality is intact and it remains relatively easy to exchange to fiat currencies.

[Technomage]

Agree 100% and I take everything Technomage says with a pinch of salt, it wasn't that long ago he was saying it wouldn't go below $9.

It has been a learning process for me as well. But to be fair, I've always said that what happens with the price depends on what actually happens; do we get bad news, good news, does the transaction count keep going down or not. We've experienced plenty of bad news, little major developments and a continuous degrowth of transaction counts.

But as long as nothing really serious happens to Bitcoin there will be a bottom for all the declining indicators and we're getting closer and closer to that bottom. And not all indicators have even declined, the amount of merchants accepting BTC has increased even though the economy has experienced degrowth.

[fivebells]

Pretty sure there is a lot further to fall, and the technical analysis here is basically a stopped clock at best.  (When was the last time S pronounced an immediately actionable "sell" signal?)   But it's premature to say the experiment's over just because the bubble is.  There will be considerable renewed interest in bitcoin if someone figures out a financial arrangement involving bitcoin that works much better than corresponding arrangements using real money.  The cryptographic/scripting features of bitcoin mean this is a real possibility.  Arguably, this already happened with the Silk Road, but that has obvious problems, and can only support a relatively small valuation.  (How small, I don't know...)

[zby]

@S3052 - I understand that you base your prediction on the fact that there were 5 Elliot waves - but how did you decide that the 5th wave is over?  In your picture the first wave had it's minimum not at the first drop down - but at the second.

[wareen]

it doesn't store value well

Oh it does - if you value Bitcoins by themselves and don't make your valuation of them dependent on the current BTC/USD exchange rate.

Of course I know what you mean with your statement and it makes sense, but look at it this way: a dollar bill or a dollar bank account are nowhere near as good a store of dollar-value as an encrypted and well backed up Bitcoin wallet stores your Bitcoin-value.

and it's a poor currency

If it was universally accepted, it would make for a great currency - the properties of Bitcoin itself don't make it a poor currency, it's the low adoption rate and resulting high volatility that makes it cumbersome to use as a currency.

but it's over guys.

For one group of people it's over, for another one it's just beginning. I can understand that everybody who bought high or expected to "get rich quick" it must be a bit disappointing, but there's so many more people who haven't even heard about Bitcoin yet.

Over time, the software will mature, the mobile apps will be secure and easy to use. It doesn't take very much to get us there. The longer it exists without major security breaches, the easier it is to convince people that it is trustworthy. With a lower price and new generations of GPUs, mining will become easy again and the faucet will be more generous. All that together will inevitably lead to new people just trying it out and hopefully spread BTC to a much larger part of the population.

By then, Bitcoin could truly make for a great currency.

[mobodick]

With a "real world" market I can understand that there are trends that repeat, but in this case what you are basically saying is that you predict almost everybody that left Bitcoin for whatever reason will (very soon) decide that they believe in it again and will buy up tons of coins.

My non-technical analysis skills tell me that Bitcoin became a craze for a short while which led to the huge price rise, and just like yoyos, scooters, and pokemon cards, the non-technically analysed trend all these things followed is that the craze wont be hitting again any time soon.

I'm sorry to say but I think your non-technical analysis skills are not very good. Thing is the $32 peak was a hype bubble fueled by tons of speculation. What we have been seeing now is people leaving who never really cared about Bitcoin in the first place. Which I think is actually good.

What is happening is a change of hands, the future rise of Bitcoin will be based less on speculation and hype but more on actual achievements. This will be a slow process that will take place during the next 12 months and the years to come but the fact is Bitcoin is getting more useful slowly but surely, merchant activity is growing, it's just a matter of time when Bitcoin finds a place in some significant markets and gets some attention based on real developments, not just potential.

So while this change of hands takes place we might see a further downtrend (or not), even a total crash (or not), but Bitcoin will certainly come back up as long as it is functional and legal. It's simply too useful for some purposes and it's just a matter of time when it is widespread in certain markets.

It's still a gamble though, it's not guaranteed that it'll stay reliable and legal. But odds are it will, and if it does, I can pretty much guarantee it'll see significant growth. The transaction counts we've been seeing so far, from the peak of 10k-15k transactions per day to the current average of 5500 transactions per day are going to be SMALL numbers when Bitcoin really takes off, and then the price will also be on another level.

And by taking off I mean finding its place in niche markets. We'll be talking about significantly higher transaction counts. Going mainstream is a big challenge and I'm not sure if Bitcoin can manage that, but it's okay if it doesn't. It can be very useful in certain niche markets and still be way bigger than it is now.

Yeah, well, how do i say it...
You completely disregard the analysis that in the short term bitcoin will grow in value.
You talk about a slow climb in the next 12 months, while Are-you-a-wizard? was talking about the short term prediction.
And i think Are-you-a-wizard? is right.
People have been walking away and the bitcoin economy hasn't had a boost for almost half a year now.
It's hard to believe technical analysis when the market is grinding the bottom.
In fact, (and i'm not sure you noticed this) most miners are still mining but are hoarding.
Now they have 2 options, sell now or wait for later.
There is a good chance at some point (if the price keeps falling) they will dump massive ammounts of BC into the market and the price will fall even further.
So this is not a very strange thing to think.
I think that you just used Are-you-a-wizard? to push forward your opinion and it's just a creepy how you dissed Are-you-a-wizard? and pretend you know it all.

:/

[fivebells]

Short term: strong BUY rating.

  I guess the rating must be EVEN STRONGER NOW!  OMG, whatta steal!!!

Bwahaha

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48565.0

[ineededausername]

Short term: strong BUY rating.

  I guess the rating must be EVEN STRONGER NOW!  OMG, whatta steal!!!

Bwahaha

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48565.0

He's been saying it all the way down... and he was right at one point, but a 10k btc sell killed the entire rally.  So now it's at 3.5 instead of 7, and I don't believe it anymore.