Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[kokjo]

it goes up, unless it goes down?

No no, you got it all wrong. It goes up, unless it happens to go below a certain minimum. This is not foretelling, this is analysis.

potato/potato. the only thing that S3052 can predict that i don't, is the tripping points..

And your irony detection is apparently as good as your tripping point prediction

i dont know how i should reply to that, with out making myself look stupid...

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[zby]

For me it seems more likely that we are now in the corrective wave and that it will take another 2-3 days before we resume the main up trend.

Right, and a typical corrective pattern would see another drop to about $2.6 as we saw 4 Dec, before continuing the upward trend.

Does not look like that any more - or does it?

[netrin]

potato/potato. the only thing that S3052 can predict that i don't, is the tripping points..

Do I read this right? The only thing you don't predict are the tops and the bottoms, but what? you can see the trends after they've begun? Following the good 'ole buy high sell low strategy? If that's work'n for you, keep it up.

[kokjo]

potato/potato. the only thing that S3052 can predict that i don't, is the tripping points..

Do I read this right? The only thing you don't predict are the tops and the bottoms, but what? you can see the trends after they've begun? Following the good 'ole buy high sell low strategy? If that's work'n for you, keep it up.

mostly. its more like a buy middel, sell middel strategy.

[S3052]

We have just issued a new bitcoin chart and bitcoin price forecast to subcribers

[molecular]

We have just issued a new bitcoin chart and bitcoin price forecast to subcribers

translation for non-subcribers: something will happen soonish.

[jojkaart]

We have just issued a new bitcoin chart and bitcoin price forecast to subcribers

translation for non-subcribers: something will happen soonish.

Actually, it's just the scheduled weekly report. Happens around the same time every week.

[Crypt_Current]

We have just issued a new bitcoin chart and bitcoin price forecast to subcribers

translation for non-subcribers: something will happen soonish.

Actually, it's just the scheduled weekly report. Happens around the same time every week.

PREDICTION:  There will be a day next week with a vowel in its name.

[S3052]

New Stock market outlook: 2012 will bring the crash in the stock market // see here: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

[tvbcof]

New Stock market outlook: 2012 will bring the crash in the stock market // see here: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

I find the most compelling argument against this eventuality is that there is still a chance that it could transpire in 2011.

[Crypt_Current]

New Stock market outlook: 2012 will bring the crash in the stock market // see here: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

I find the most compelling argument against this eventuality is that there is still a chance that it could transpire in 2011.

So the most compelling argument against it is just "for it, quicker"?  Brilliant!

[tvbcof]

New Stock market outlook: 2012 will bring the crash in the stock market // see here: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

I find the most compelling argument against this eventuality is that there is still a chance that it could transpire in 2011.

So the most compelling argument against it is just "for it, quicker"?

Yes.  I find it more likely that there will be a crack-up before 1/1/2012 than after 12/31/2012.

Brilliant!

Thanks!

[S3052]

New Stock market outlook: 2012 will bring the crash in the stock market // see here: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

I find the most compelling argument against this eventuality is that there is still a chance that it could transpire in 2011.

It is entirely possible that the downturn starts before xmas. Almost everyone expects a Santa rally, perhaps optimism is too high for this to materialize.

But anyway, if the plunge protection team (PPT) in the US is successful again to spark a Santa rally, in January this will be completely retraced.

[BTCurious]

Do changes in the stockmarket change the bitcoin price yet? Or are they still mostly uncorrelated?

[S3052]

Overall, there is probably not a strong correlation.

At the same time, in case many big players in the bitcoin market are also heavily invested in the stock market and other risky assets, when all these crash (which I believe will happen big time), then they may also need to convert BTC back to cash to compensate.

But as said, this is a small fraction of the players.

And even more likely, there can be huge money inflows from investors who abandon the stock market and precious metals when they see that BTC is more promising.

I.e. bitcoin prices have mid term upside back to the all time highs, which can be a 10x increase. Just an example. They wont get those returns with Gold, Silver, stocks.

[zby]

For me it seems more likely that we are now in the corrective wave and that it will take another 2-3 days before we resume the main up trend.

Right, and a typical corrective pattern would see another drop to about $2.6 as we saw 4 Dec, before continuing the upward trend.

Did not happen - how do you interpret this?  The bid walls stopped the C down wave and now we are back in the main up trend (and more precisely in the third wave of it)?

[S3052]

zby and others:

this is exactly the reason why I do not count the minor subwaves. the risk for error is too high.

I have focused more on the bigger picture which told me that the likelihood is very high that we will enter a major rally.

I think we are in the wave 3 up now which will be much stronger than wave 1 (and wave 1 was +56% !!!)

Some people may be surprised if BTCUSD slices through 4 $ like butter.

[fastandfurious]

zby and others:

this is exactly the reason why I do not count the minor subwaves. the risk for error is too high.

I have focused more on the bigger picture which told me that the likelihood is very high that we will enter a major rally.

I think we are in the wave 3 up now which will be much stronger than wave 1 (and wave 1 was +56% !!!)

Some people may be surprised if BTCUSD slices through 4 $ like butter.

Are you going for a pump and dump?

[ineededausername]

zby and others:

this is exactly the reason why I do not count the minor subwaves. the risk for error is too high.

I have focused more on the bigger picture which told me that the likelihood is very high that we will enter a major rally.

I think we are in the wave 3 up now which will be much stronger than wave 1 (and wave 1 was +56% !!!)

Some people may be surprised if BTCUSD slices through 4 $ like butter.

Do you mean three-digit prices in 2012?

[netrin]

Right, and a typical corrective pattern would see another drop to about $2.6 as we saw 4 Dec, before continuing the upward trend.

Did not happen - how do you interpret this?  The bid walls stopped the C down wave and now we are back in the main up trend (and more precisely in the third wave of it)?

"Shit happens"

I have to agree with S3052. Wave movements smaller than Mt. Gox spreads are as informative as quantum noise. If you've got time, there's a long discussion regarding the December counts, otherwise to summarize, I counted five regressive counts 3 December, and expected wave iv to continue bouncing. I was wrong.

My count places bitcoin in a third of the fifth today based on strictly valid waves since $2. It depends on which scales you trust most. At the moment, I don't trust any of them.