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Author Topic: Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order  (Read 502932 times)
dmwardjr
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June 07, 2016, 12:53:37 AM
 #341

not.you asked the following but deleted his question:  "Is that image of the calculator based on 25 coins per block or 12.5?"

I halved the price in my calculation from $655.20 in that month to $327.60 because of blocks reducing from 25 to 12.5.

EDIT:  I'm basically saying your profits with an S9 will look quite nice through October, 2016.  However, don't be surprised if difficulty begins to increase at a rate faster than bitcoin price increase after October, 2016.  Your profits after power costs may reduce from $200+ each month to $100+ each month by December, 2016 IF THE PRICE OF BITCOIN DOES NOT INCREASE TO THE PROJECTED $1,500 I've speculated in my 3-Day price chart by end of 2016.  However, if bitcoin price does increase to $1,500 by end of 2016, you can expect the percentage rate of difficulty to increase at a similar percentage rate with bitcoin price until the end of 2016 and continue to enjoy $200+ profits per S9 monthly.  However, I can see the difficulty increase exponentially in 2017 if the price of bitcoin increased to $1,500.

We should come together as a community to promote and support the best coin(s) for humanity in regards to decentralized currency, privacy, freedom of speech and freedom from tyranny.
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June 07, 2016, 01:04:41 AM
 #342

14Th/s sounds like a nice big number. I threw it into a mining calculator and even with free electricity and the halving reward put in it would take 200+ days. But that is with a fixed a difficulty.

I feel sorry for the folks that will end up buying one of these at the price they're currently at.

I'm hoping, either, higher hashing power machines come out, or they are made and sold cheaper.

Keep in mind it could change with BTC value.  Say you put in the 2kish and mine if there keeps being surges in BTC price that will also help for longer mining.  Leading up to having btc value has been nice. 

After having some miners might come offline to due to efficiency, it's all speculation.  S9's with amazing efficiency they will be able to run after having no doubt.  So again difficulty I think is hard to say after having.   There are some circumstances that would make it a good investment, but mining never has been a sure thing.

It's hard to predict the amount of hashrate going away because of inefficient miners. Nor any price rise because of the halving. Which makes it quite risky to buy a miner where you got no guarantee  of how much it will let you earn you.

Suppose the price goes back to 400 after the halving, then you are screwed...

That's not going to happen unless there is another exchange scam or China decides to dump it all

Back in my day Bitcoin used to cost $69
dmwardjr
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June 07, 2016, 01:06:33 AM
 #343

That's not going to happen unless there is another exchange scam or China decides to dump it all

I would have to agree.  I believe the day of seeing sub $450 USD for a bitcoin and sub $4.50 for LTC is history.

We should come together as a community to promote and support the best coin(s) for humanity in regards to decentralized currency, privacy, freedom of speech and freedom from tyranny.
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June 07, 2016, 01:08:30 AM
 #344

So if coin increases to $1500, should I buy 1.4BTC right now for about $800 and cash it out for $2100 at the end of the year, or buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year to cash out for $2100?

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June 07, 2016, 01:16:02 AM
 #345

So if coin increases to $1500, should I buy 1.4BTC right now for about $800 and cash it out for $2100 at the end of the year, or buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year to cash out for $2100?

<put your name here> in the alt Universe already bought those 1.4 BTC last year for $400  Grin
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June 07, 2016, 01:42:02 AM
 #346

Good point. ASIC efficiency is probably about to plateau for a while. One consideration to add to that is S2 vs S1 - a more chip-dense machine with the same ASIC about half the per-hash power (for the current generation, probably about 0.6J/GH machine-level) will have a higher initial cost but a substantially longer viability. In that way I guess Bitmain has done hackers a favor going with a bucked string topology on later S7 and S9. For a regular joe it's actually worse than unregulated string because you get worse efficiency but if it can be hacked to adjustable voltage that potentially doubles (or more) the miner's effective lifetime.

-removed for privacy-

...

Sidehack is working on a dual Dell 750 breakout board with 10 PCIe connectors!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1501428.msg15106357#msg15106357

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fr4nkthetank
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June 07, 2016, 01:42:12 AM
 #347

I like these speculations.  Another way to view it this:  If you have s7's that you want to sell, sell now or wait ?  We know miners hit a "floor" value at some point.  So is selling an s7 for 250$ reasonable right now ?  How much will it be worth after halving ?  In october ?  100$?  Maybe its better to keep it ?  I too feel (and I have said before) we are due for a massive pump, and the last one took at least a quarter to materialize, this one will be longer.  Mayyyybe, just maybe, the smart move is to keep the s7's until they hit "floor" value, and just keep that sweet btc, and dont give it to Bitmain.  Then at some point switch em for the s9's or actually skip this generation.  Its a tough call.  Like I feel btc will really double or triple, and i'd buy a ton of it, but unfortunately money doesnt grow on trees.

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philipma1957
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June 07, 2016, 01:44:50 AM
 #348

So if coin increases to $1500, should I buy 1.4BTC right now for about $800 and cash it out for $2100 at the end of the year, or buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year to cash out for $2100?

<put your name here> in the alt Universe already bought those 1.4 BTC last year for $400  Grin

I made more money in two months with eth coin then I made with btc in the last seven months.

And in invested less in eth coin then I did btc.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
sidehack
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June 07, 2016, 01:50:33 AM
 #349

I've got about half a dozen S7 running in hosting on dual Dell 750s. The difference with a new batch will be the option for 6-pin cabling, which people seem to like because, though far less versatile, it's quick and clean. I'd probably be selling these boards out the butt if I had any for the last six months, but things have been tight around the shop between Compacs and DPS8/12 boards and people waiting a month and a half to pay their bills. Money definitely does not grow on trees around here.

A 208V-fed DPS1200 will run a 135-chip S7 on stock settings. Runs hot, but it runs.

Good schematics would be nice. Heck of a lot easier than reverse-engineering, and cheaper. Tomorrow's task will be hacking away at Avalon stuff since they didn't provide an A3218 datasheet. After that will be hacking away at an S7LN board. Making things work and making things work better are always fun.

not.you
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June 07, 2016, 01:57:52 AM
 #350

not.you asked the following but deleted his question:  "Is that image of the calculator based on 25 coins per block or 12.5?"

I halved the price in my calculation from $655.20 in that month to $327.60 because of blocks reducing from 25 to 12.5.

EDIT:  I'm basically saying your profits with an S9 will look quite nice through October, 2016.  However, don't be surprised if difficulty begins to increase at a rate faster than bitcoin price increase after October, 2016.  Your profits after power costs may reduce from $200+ each month to $100+ each month by December, 2016 IF THE PRICE OF BITCOIN DOES NOT INCREASE TO THE PROJECTED $1,500 I've speculated in my 3-Day price chart by end of 2016.  However, if bitcoin price does increase to $1,500 by end of 2016, you can expect the percentage rate of difficulty to increase at a similar percentage rate with bitcoin price until the end of 2016 and continue to enjoy $200+ profits per S9 monthly.  However, I can see the difficulty increase exponentially in 2017 if the price of bitcoin increased to $1,500.

Yeah I went back and reread your post and figured out the answer to my question so I deleted it.
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June 07, 2016, 01:58:55 AM
 #351

As far as base price for S7, where did you guys get $250? This does not exist (yet).
Maybe, that is what you are bidding, but i have seen S7 sold for BTC0.75 ($435, although in EU) just today.
It very well may be that base price would be $300-350 for a while. In fact, if BTC gets to $800 (hypothetically) shortly after halving, it would still be marginally profitable at 7-9c and wildly profitable in WA, Labrador, South America or other low electricity cost areas. Three S7 would still bring the same coin as S9 if your electricity price is very low.
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June 07, 2016, 02:15:27 AM
 #352

So if coin increases to $1500, should I buy 1.4BTC right now for about $800 and cash it out for $2100 at the end of the year, or buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year to cash out for $2100?

<put your name here> in the alt Universe already bought those 1.4 BTC last year for $400  Grin

I made more money in two months with eth coin then I made with btc in the last seven months.

And in invested less in eth coin then I did btc.

Me too, since no miners were available I dumped the 300Th of Avalons and bought 5 Gh of GPU's etc and have made a killing.  I must say it is a pain in the ass to run all those GPU's and I would much rather be mining Bitcoin directly but the state of affairs with Bitcoin mining is making it difficult.

Bitcoin Will Only Succeed If The Community That Supports It Gets Support - Support Home Miners & Mining
Biodom
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June 07, 2016, 02:20:29 AM
 #353

So if coin increases to $1500, should I buy 1.4BTC right now for about $800 and cash it out for $2100 at the end of the year, or buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year to cash out for $2100?

<put your name here> in the alt Universe already bought those 1.4 BTC last year for $400  Grin

I made more money in two months with eth coin then I made with btc in the last seven months.

And in invested less in eth coin then I did btc.

Me too, since no miners were available I dumped the 300Th of Avalons and bought 5 Gh of GPU's etc and have made a killing.  I must say it is a pain in the ass to run all those GPU's and I would much rather be mining Bitcoin directly but the state of affairs with Bitcoin mining is making it difficult.

All I can run at my place is 2kw, hence a small effort with 12-13 GPUs.
5gh, that is probably minimum 40kw or more-do you have a farm or something?
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June 07, 2016, 02:34:14 AM
 #354

As far as base price for S7, where did you guys get $250? This does not exist (yet).
Maybe, that is what you are bidding, but i have seen S7 sold for BTC0.75 ($435, although in EU) just today.
It very well may be that base price would be $300-350 for a while. In fact, if BTC gets to $800 (hypothetically) shortly after halving, it would still be marginally profitable at 7-9c and wildly profitable in WA, Labrador, South America or other low electricity cost areas. Three S7 would still bring the same coin as S9 if your electricity price is very low.

this is why we have not lowered our selling price too much on the 2 s-7's and 3 avalon6's  left in the solar setup

the power is 'free' or 5 cents.

 Free since it  has been built and paid for.  fives cents since the power company would pay 5 cents to buy the power.

At five cents 22th makes  675 from now until july 4th

at 0 cents 22th makes     861 from now until july 4th

at zero cents 22th    makes 900 from july 4th to sept 4th

at five cents 22th makes    497 from july 4th to sept 4th


So holding the 5 pieces for 3 months = 1175 to 1761    depends on your math.




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I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
dmwardjr
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June 07, 2016, 02:43:58 AM
 #355

So if coin increases to $1500, should I buy 1.4BTC right now for about $800 and cash it out for $2100 at the end of the year, or buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year to cash out for $2100?

It's not that clear cut.

What makes you think you only mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year?

If you started the last two weeks of July with the following difficulty changes:

.2624 BTC mined the last 2 weeks of July with difficulty at 187.824 Billion
.2515 BTC mined 2 weeks later (August 1, 2016) 5% increase August 1, 2016, that would be 196.35 Billion with that 5 percent increase.
.2391 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid August) the difficulty increased another 5% from 196.35 Billion to 206.1675 Billion.
.2277 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of August) the difficulty increased another 5% from 206.1675 Billion to 216.475 Billion.
.2168 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid September) the difficulty increased another 5% from 216.475 Billion to 227.299 Billion.
.1885 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of September) the difficulty increased 15% from 227.299 Billion to 261.394 Billion.  [I have 15% increase at this difficulty change for another manufacturer with next gen rigs online.]
.1640 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid October) the difficulty increased 15% from 261.394 Billion to 300.604 Billion.
.1477 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of October) the difficulty increased 11% from 300.604 Billion to 333.670 Billion.  [This puts us above my difficulty prediction of 322,388,000,000 by end of October, 2016.]
.1368 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid November) the difficulty increased 8% from 333.670 Billion to 360.364 Billion.
.1319 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of November) the difficulty increased 12% from 333.670 Billion to 373.710 Billion.
.1221 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid December) the difficulty increased 8% from 373.710 Billion to 403.607 Billion.
.1152 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid December) the difficulty increased 6% from 403.607 Billion to 427.824 Billion.

2.2037 BTC mined approximately by end of December 2016.  This does not include paying for power costs.

The outlook on how many bitcoin mined per S9 looks kind of disappointing after December, 2016 if the difficulty plays out the way I'm speculating.  Maybe you think it's impossible for difficulty to increase this much in a relatively short period of time.  However, I believe it would be achieved quite easily.  Especially, if another manufacturer comes out with similar efficiency rigs.  Think about it, the S9 is MORE THAN TRIPLE THE HASH RATE of the previous S7 at virtually the same power consumption.  Is it not reasonable to conclude the difficulty could easily double within a 5 to 6 month period with that kind of performance.  Especially, if Bitmain is not the only manufacturer with this technology.

We should come together as a community to promote and support the best coin(s) for humanity in regards to decentralized currency, privacy, freedom of speech and freedom from tyranny.
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June 07, 2016, 02:59:40 AM
 #356

Knowing sidehack's precision, he probably already cranked the numbers that he posted as being the likeliest.
Why would we get a drop anyway (from now to July)?
Plus, minor point, but S9 is NOT more than three times S7 (at least not B1, 3, 5,7, 8-16). 14/4.86 (B1,3,5)=2.88; 14/5.06 (B7)=2.77; 14/4.73 (B>eight)=2.96
Just saying.
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June 07, 2016, 03:09:41 AM
 #357

Okay  lets argue

 old hash                                     = 400ph before s-7

soon to be old hash                      = 900ph   the S-7 and friends

new hash on and off with a switch = 500ph after s-7


I believe the numbers above are close to correct right now

the ½ ing comes  how much of the 1300ph drops.   I say 600ph drops  but that 500ph of new seems to already be here.

so  they may give us a big drop  after the ½ ing , but in August ,Sept, Oct up up and away.

I study these charts a lot and the spike has become very commonplace.

It is how I determine offline gear.



a screenshot of the chart below  this shows the older spike


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I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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June 07, 2016, 03:21:25 AM
 #358

Biodom - Actually I was just winging it and using numbers that would backtrack to S9 purchase price for comparison. But using dmwardjr's mining return numbers...

So an S9 would cost me a quarter coin in power if coin is at $1500, leaving me 1.95BTC from the 2.2BTC mined if I roll the entire power cost forward each month for a recompense in December. Though unrealistic, that makes the comparison easier (and also the most optimistic).

So I should buy 1.95BTC right now for about $1150 and cash it out for $2900 at the end of the year for a net profit of $1750?
Or should I buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100, buy an S9, pay $360 in electric over the next 6 months, mine 2.2BTC and cash it out for about $3300 at the end of the year for a net profit of about $800?
Or should I buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and cash it out at the end of the year for around $5400 for a net profit of around $3300 and no monthly expenditure?

If I'm paying monthly for power on an S9 by selling the required amount of coin monthly, I only actually keep around 1.86BTC by the end of it, so I'd cash out for about $2800 and a net profit of $700. Or I could have bought 1.86BTC for about $1100 and cash it at the end of the year for a $1700 profit.

Your numbers aren't very favorable for buying an S9 fresh. If an S7 runs 1/3 the hashrate it should net 1/3 the coinage, so about 0.73BTC which is currently valued at around $430. I can get an S7 aftermarket for around 0.5BTC and spend 0.25BTC on power (if I roll all my costs forward to recompense in December) for an ultimate breakeven. Or I can keep the BTC and cash out at year's end for a $450 profit. Dang, as much as I like the idea of $1500 coin those numbers really aren't encouraging at all for miners.

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June 07, 2016, 03:29:57 AM
 #359

Biodom - Actually I was just winging it and using numbers that would backtrack to S9 purchase price for comparison. But using dmwardjr's mining return numbers...

So an S9 would cost me a quarter coin in power if coin is at $1500, leaving me 1.95BTC from the 2.2BTC mined if I roll the entire power cost forward each month for a recompense in December. Though unrealistic, that makes the comparison easier (and also the most optimistic).

So I should buy 1.95BTC right now for about $1150 and cash it out for $2900 at the end of the year for a net profit of $1750?
Or should I buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100, buy an S9, pay $360 in electric over the next 6 months, mine 2.2BTC and cash it out for about $3300 at the end of the year for a net profit of about $800?
Or should I buy 3.6BTC right now for about $2100 and cash it out at the end of the year for around $5400 for a net profit of around $3300 and no monthly expenditure?

If I'm paying monthly for power on an S9 by selling the required amount of coin monthly, I only actually keep around 1.86BTC by the end of it, so I'd cash out for about $2800 and a net profit of $700. Or I could have bought 1.86BTC for about $1100 and cash it at the end of the year for a $1700 profit.

Your numbers aren't very favorable for buying an S9 fresh. If an S7 runs 1/3 the hashrate it should net 1/3 the coinage, so about 0.73BTC which is currently valued at around $430. I can get an S7 aftermarket for around 0.5BTC and spend 0.25BTC on power (if I roll all my costs forward to recompense in December) for an ultimate breakeven. Or I can keep the BTC and cash out at year's end for a $450 profit. Dang, as much as I like the idea of $1500 coin those numbers really aren't encouraging at all for miners.

the problem as I see is how much growth?

Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s

Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s

30 jumps we did an average of  2.1%

so from the 7th of june for 30 jumps do we do 2.1%?

in 3 jumps you earn 1.1 btc if you have an s-9 and 5 cent power

and in 30 jumps you earn  8.38 btc

if you have 10 cent power you earn .88 before the  ½ ing
and you earn 5.6 btc   

so the s-9  need that growth rate above to do well

the network did that  so it could do it again. or it could do this rate


May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s

Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s


this is 7.1%    and thats is fucked.

so do you think we do 2.1% for 30 jumps  or 7.1% for 15 jumps


This is the bet  pure and simple . 

2.1% growth and the s-9 will be really nice.

7.1% growth and the s-9 will suck.    Buy and   hodl wins

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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June 07, 2016, 03:30:21 AM
 #360

Anybody ever heard of Bitmain offering 50% discount to VIP customers?
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